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2022-2023 NBA Predictions, 2023 Draft and Cheat Sheets

Well the offseason as of 30th of July 2022 still has questions about Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell, but for those of Magic Fans are questions are about a trio of PG possibilities (Fultz, Cole, Suggs) what we get from #1 Overall pick Paolo Banchero, how Franz Wagner will develop in year 2, the return of Isaac for some, and the usual buzz of how the season will unfold. Much debate abounds on Pinstriped about what Orlando's goal should be with many clamoring for the play in tournament and some, like myself, still more skeptical with hopes for next seasons draft combined with future player development and free agent signings in 2023 and beyond.

What will the season look like? How about the 2023 draft? I've consolidate the Vegas odds on team win totals, either from DraftKings or PointsBet and figured those were good enough for projections. I've also included the owed 2023 1st round picks as a way too early look ahead and cheat sheet that should help guide how to value (hint pretty good chance the Bulls pick is the best pick trade to another team).

Keep in Mind the Consensus Win Total is based on Vegas odds which are not necessarily predictive but rather reflect the number that keeps both sides equal on betting.

Team

Consensus Win Total

Playoff Position

Draft Pos.

Boston Celtics

55.5

1st Seed in East

30

Los Angeles Clippers

52.5

2nd Seed in West

29

Pheonix Suns

52.5

1st Seed in West

28

Milwaukee Bucks

52

2nd Seed in East

27

Golden State Warriors

51

3rd Seed in West

26

Philadelphia 76ers

50

3rd Seed in East

25

Denver Nuggets

50

4th Seed in West

24

Miami Heat

49.5

4th Seed in East

23

Memphis Grizzlies

49.5

5th Seed in West

22

Minnesota Timberwolves

48.5

6th Seed in West

21

Dallas Mavericks

48

7th Seed in West *PI

20

Atlanta Hawks

47

5th Seed in East

19

Brooklyn Nets

45.5

6th Seed in East

18

Los Angeles Lakers

45.5

8th Seed in West *PI

17

Toronto Raptors

44.5

7th Seed in East *PI

16

New Orleans Pelicans

44.5

9th Seed in West *PI

14

Chicago Bulls

43

8th Seed in East *PI

15

Cleveland Cavaliers

42.5

9th Seed in East *PI

13

Portland Trail Blazers

40.5

10th Seed in West *PI

12

NY Knicks

39.5

10th Seed in East *PI

11

Charlotte Hornets

37

10

Washington Wizards

35.5

9

Utah Jazz

32.5

8

Sacramento Kings

32.5

7

Detroit Pistons

27.5

6

Orlando Magic

26.5

5

Oklahoma City Thunder

26

4

Indiana Pacers

25

3

Houston Rockets

24.5

2

San Antonio Spurs

24

1

All 2023 First Round Picks "On the Move" with commentary.

2023 First Rounders Likely to Convery (In Order of 2023 conveyance probability):

Milwaukee to Houston (No Protections). No Protections, but they play in the east and just won 50 games. They ran it back again and while the team age is over 30 on average, unless Giannis and Middleton miss 50 a piece hard to see this team not in the post season given the overall depth. Vegas Projected Spot: 27

Houston/Brooklyn/Philadelphia to Utah (Swap Algebra utah gets worst pick of the 3). Some teams just can't have nice things (Brooklyn) this is the Royce Neal trade Utah gets the lowest of those 3 teams picks. So sure mathematically its possible that this the #3 overall pick (if Brooklyn, Houston, and Philadelphia all end up in the lotto and all are selected 1-3) much more likely this is going to be in the mid-20s just based on the strength of the 76ers. Everyone knows this but still think they could have gotten more than Royce Neal in an apparently deep draft even for what is sure to be a mid-late 20s pick. Vegas Projected Spot: 25

Minnesota to Utah (No Protections). The 1st installment of many payments for DPOY Rudy Gobert now we get to see how well he meshes with KAT, how much Anthony Edwards progresses in year 3, and DeAngelo Russel while not dealing with Quad issues all year. They just won 46 last season without Gobert and didn't move any high value vet. Likely 50 wins and a top 6 seed, certainly going to be in the 20s. Vegas Projected Spot: 21

Chicago to Orlando (1-4 Protected). Chicago's pick to us is probably the best "on the move" pick that is likely going to be conveyed. To be sure there are some worse teams than Chicago who owe picks but all have better protections. The Bulls pick is likely in the late teens early 20s but could go all the way to lottery territory if they have injuries and its not like Ball hasn't had more than his fair share but DeRozen, LaVine and Vuc are all pretty healthy. The best "realistic" hope for Orlando here is that Chicago is in playin territory and loses that series so pick 12-14 on the high side 20-22 on the low side. Vegas Projected Spot: 15

Boston to Indiana (1-12 Protected) Hard not see Boston getting a 1-5 playoff spot even with injuries given their depth so give star lock the transfer but likely to be in the mid-late 20s. Vegas Projected Spot: 30

Dallas to New York Knicks (1-10 Protected). Dallas has Doncic do I need to say more? Yes they lost Brunson they also added Christian Wood and JaVale McGee, this is miss the playin territory as long as its not Doncic missing 60 games can't see it. Likely spot lots say 20ish. Vegas Projected Spot: 20

Denver to Charlotte (Lottery Protected) Denver's in the Western Conference and its rough but too much depth solid 1-5 if Murray's healthy even if not it can't be any better than 15th and likely spot well into the 20s. Vegas Projected Spot: 24

Cleveland to Indiana (Lottery Protected). The Cavs are getting better each year, great young team could well be their time to rocket way past the play in territory. I’m much higher on this team (Cleveland) than the Vegas line Garland-Mobley combo just looks super good and I think they are the uptick team so I moved them higher. They lost the play in last year but this is a team on the rise. Vegas Projected Spot: Doesn’t Convey due to playin projected loss

May Convey:

Portland to Chicago (Lottery Protected). If Lillard is healthy they could make the post-season. Vegas Projected Spot: Doesn’t Convery.

Washington to NY Knicks (Lottery Protected) . Wizards are riding on Beal and Porzingas being healthy, singed Delon Wright to play point, Will Barton for the 3 , drafted Johnny Davis, and get another year development for Rui and Avdija is that enough to make the post-season no idea certainly could be. Vegas Projected Spot: Doesn’t Convery.

Not going to Convey:

Charlotte to San Antonio (1-16 protected) Yeah not after the off-season the Hornets just had. Vegas Projected Spot: Doesn’t Convery.

Detroit to New York Knicks (1-18 Protected). If this pick convey's it means Jaden Ivey is ROY, Marvin Bagley or Kevin Knox is the leagues most improved player, and Cade Cunningham just made an all-NBA team. Detroit wouldn't miss it. Vegas Projected Spot: Doesn’t Convery.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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