I know the hot topic right now is the trade deadline, and will be for another week or so. Yet, I keep finding myself coming back to the upcoming draft. This could be because every win or loss feels like it'll have a big impact on who the Magic may select (it won't). It could be because whatever trades the Magic make will hopefully involve draft picks. It could be because goodness the Magic have been screwed over by the lotto odds so many times that you can't help but doom-click the tankathon lotto simulator into oblivion...it's probably some combo of all those.

However, the more I think about the upcoming draft...the more I find myself just hating the choices laid out before us.

Don't get me wrong, I think there are some good prospects in the 2022 draft. And I don't even hate the fact that there isn't a "clear #1" or "clear tier 1" guys like there seemingly have been over the last few years. No, rather I think I hate it because for the first time in a while, it feels like the draft is going to be a decision, rather than Big Board selection. A decision that isn't going to be easy, since there are so many pros and cons to all the guys in the range the Magic may draft. A decision that will ultimately help determine who on the current squad stays or goes.

To help me show what I mean, I want to toss out my thoughts on some of the top prospects and why I like and/or dislike them. I freely admit I don't watch college basketball in any real way, so I'm going off a lot of scouting reports, youtube scouting, and the handful of games I have been able to see. I want to hear your thoughts. I want to know where I'm mistaken, where I am right, and the reasoning why.

So, without further rambling, here's just some scattered thoughts regarding some of the guys who are likely to be in/around wherever the Magic end up selecting in the 2022 draft. This isn't really in any specific order, beyond a very generalized "consensus" in my mind from reading various mocks over the last few weeks.

Jabari Smith:

If the Magic land the number one pick, it feels like the "default" to take Smith. He's a 6'10" dude who shooters better than many guards. He's absolutely lethal as a catch-and-shoot option, with just enough dribble-pull-up flashes to make you think there's long-term growth possibilities there. He's a mobile and active defender with solid wingspan (most seem to put it around 7'1"-7'2"), who is putting up solid rebounding totals and stocks. And he's still very young.

Yet despite all that he seemingly has going for him, that lovely "high floor", there are clear limitations that leave you wondering how high his ceiling will be. Multiple scouting reports mention that he "plays like a big wing, rather than a skilled Big" and I think that leans into some of my concerns. He's not a good finisher, nor does he offer much rim protection. He's a bit like JJJ, but I'm not confident he can slide to the 5 like JJJ can. He's a bit like Channing Frye, full-stop. His passing instincts look below average, which combined with his handles make him much more a "play finisher" than a "playmaker". The Magic may not need him to be a go-to option on offense, but are we talking about a high-level Role Player as the #1 pick?

Paolo Banchero:

The dude is 6'10", 250 lbs, has impeccable footwork, and moves with a speed that seems unnatural for his size. He's a walking 20-10, and could probably get close to that as a rookie. Eventually, it wouldn't be surprising to see him as one of the better scorers in the League, given his skill level and matchup advantages. What team doesn't need an "alpha scorer" to help carry the load or find a bucket in crunch time? Only ones that already have one, which the Magic don't.

Yet. Stop me if you've heard this one before: A gifted offensive Big, both in scoring and in passing, but limited defensively. Who am I talking about? Blake Griffin maybe? Nikola Vucevic perhaps? Julius Randle, possibly? Domantas Sabonis, conceivably? Fun fact...the furthest any of those guys have gotten in the playoffs was Griffin, while playing beside a Prime HoF Point God Chris Paul.

I'm not doubting Banchero's skill or talent. But I think it's a valid question as to whether the specific type of player he is can be "the guy" on a team, full-stop? Could that type of player be the #2 on a team, even? Or just a key cog...at which point, how high do you take someone like that?

Chet Holmgren:

I mean. The most infuriating of the group. A kid who's skill, talent, and yes even body-type (mobile & long) create an absolute monster on the court -- with the stat lines to match. If he was even just 20 pounds heavier, would anyone consider him as anything less than a runaway #1 pick? He plays with heart/fire that you can't teach. He wows you constantly with plays both large and small in ways that clearly have a strong impact on his team winning games. He probably has the highest overall talent/skill level of anyone in this draft.

And yet. We just can't get away from it. The fact that he's sub-200 lbs at the start of a season, when weight tends to drop during the year. He gets pushed around by guys in college, and while he still handles his business for now, that's going to get dramatically harder in the NBA. Not only are the guys bigger/stronger in the NBA, but he won't have a similar skill-gap. But even beyond the on-court play...the physicality of the NBA is exponentially higher. Bigger, stronger players yes; but also playing games every other night, for 82 games & more, hopefully. He hasn't had an injury history that I can find thus far, but goodness...for as clear as "20 more lbs and he'd be #1" is, he's one minor knee injury away from spiraling into the "he'll break down over time" rabbit hole down the draft board.

So tantalizing. So much perceived risk. But maybe not actual risk. Ugh, for a team that feels on the cusp of building something really solid, it feels like he could either unlock everything or trip up an otherwise on-track rebuild.

Jaden Ivey:

I feel like I've already gotten to the point where I'd take Ivey over Banchero or Chet. Heck, I could conceivably talk myself into considering him over Smith, given how important strong guard play is to a modern NBA team. He's a combo-guard who is not just an RJ-clone in terms of being fast. He is fast, but he also has the ball skill to create real transition opportunities out of nothing, by himself, and either finish to get it to someone who can. His catch-and-shoot numbers are near elite. His defense is pestering, with energy enough to see a clear path to lockdown. He's playing in a system that isn't even giving him great spacing to utilize the strengths he has, and even then we see flashes of being a guy who just takes over games on both ends.

Can you imagine the sheer competitive intensity of a Suggs-Ivey backcourt?

Yet he's still a combo-guard on a team with essentially 2 other combo-guards (Cole & Suggs). We don't know for sure if his shooting is for real, given his less than stellar FT% and rough freshman year. He's had extremely limited reps at things like running a PnR, so we just don't have a lot of data about how he'll look running plays that make up a vast majority of NBA playbooks. Is he just dominating college players due to a combo of being a vastly better athlete & in his sophomore season. I dunno.

Johnny Davis:

And now we get to the other side of the spectrum. Where Ivey is a slightly undersized 2-guard who thrives on his insane athletic ability & overwhelming intensity, Davis uses his strength, footwork, and an array of moves to get to his spots and do his best 'alpha scorer' impression -- with enough success to carry his team much higher in the standings than anyone thought they'd get to. Moreover, on the occasions when he's not scoring effectively, he seems to refocus his energy into other areas of the game to still make a positive impact. He just looks like a professional out there.

And yet, the sheer size of his jump between freshman and sophomore year has to give some pause as to whether this improvement is sustainable. Ivey has the same questions, though his improvement in most areas (other than 3PT%) were marginal.

And even if the improvements are for real, there's questions about whether he can do the same things or handle the same workload at the next level. While he looks like a guy who will have a solid career, he could easily land somewhere in the "middling rotation guy" category. Which again, not a bad pick, but for a pick in the top half of the lotto, would that be enough?

AJ Griffin:

Hey there, a 6'6" 220lb Wing with a reported 7' wingspan. A guy who's providing strong, versatile defense; while hitting 50%3PT on 3+ attempts per game, 2/1 A/TO ratio, creating a bit off the dribble & decent rebounding. How was this prototypical Future Star not fighting for a top pick spot? Oh, right, he's missed major time in all of his last 3 seasons due to injury -- left knee dislocation his Jr year of HS, ankle injury his senior year of HS, and a sprained right knee his freshman year of college.

He's back now and flying up draft boards as he eases back into play. First coming off the bench, but now starting, he's currently making good on the potential people expected of him.

And yet..."injury prone" has to be a concern, and his slightly lower FT% (70%) grates a bit against his hot 3PT shooting.

Bennedict Mathurin:

Prototypical 3nD wing prospect, with only minor flashes of more potential. How high do you take a guy that may top out as Terrance Ross with some more defensive potential?

TyTy Washington:

I know the Magic have multiple young PGs on the roster already, and while Ivey seems to tease with SuperStar potential (Ja Morant having a breakout season has probably helped him, too), TyTy has looked more like a guy that you could imagine being considered a "steal" after all is said and done. He's reportedly got a 6'9" wingspan, giving him above-average size for a PG. He's making shots from all over the floor. He's rocking a 2.6 A/TO, decent shooting %s, and a reasonable steal rate. It's not hard to envision him being an all-around contributor on both ends of the floor.

Or he could be a guy who isn't elite enough at anything to stand out, on a team where he'd be pretty redundant.

The Rest, I Guess:

There are other names in this range on various mocks: Jalen Duran, a Center that you hope becomes Bam but otherwise is little more than a defensive specialist. Kendall Brown & Keegan Murray, both high (college) impact SF/PFs who could easily become non-shooting tweeners. Patrick Baldwin Jr, who was supposed to be the next Jason Tatum, but instead has struggled to do much in a super weak college conference. Jaden Hardy, who was supposed to be a better shooting version of Jalen Green, instead has looked like a budget version of Cam Thomas.

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All told, this draft is super rough. I could easily see lots of solid players, and even some potential top tier guys. But [bleep] if this year doesn't feel like the decision about who to take is going to be extremely tough and lean heavily on things like workouts...which we obviously have no insight into.

At this point I'm hoping the Magic land the top pick in the draft more because it seemingly makes the decision easier?

Right now, I think my list goes: Jabari Smith, Jaden Ivey, uh...Banchero, then maybe a dice roll between Griffin, Davis, Chet, or in that order by the slightest of measures?

So.

What do y'all think? What's your Big Board look like thus far?

What have I gotten completely wrong?

Where do we agree?

Are you as stressed out any more previous years, or am I overthinking it?