FanPost

Draft Prospect Box Checking

Hopefully I'll get a couple minutes to do some write-ups in the next couple days, but if I don't I'd like to have a few things on paper to argue over.

I try to check a few boxes when I'm looking at prospects. Sometimes the players that make it through the filter gauntlet are surprising. None of this is a substitute for watching a bunch of film. I look at a few loose categories: age, shooting, shot creation, team defense, and on-ball defense.

Age - Anybody older than a freshmen gets a demerit unless he had a significant injury. Guys who reclassified or are youngish gets a significant bump from me. I think age is the most oft overlooked factor when looking at prospects.

Shooting - True shooting in the NBA was .565 in19/20 and the average 3 point percentage was.368. If you can pass that in college against high level competition you usually end up doing it in the NBA as well. If a prospect is under those numbers they need some development. If they shoot below 30 from 3 they better be a darn good free throw shooter or I have no faith they'll ever get to league average.

Shot creation - Either for themselves or others. Can be seen through usage and assist rate. For usage, everything over 20 is off -guard usage, over 30 is a primary creator. For assist percentages 8 is an off ball shooter, 16 is a secondary creator, 24 is a ball hog point guard, 32 is a a good passer, and over 40 is Trae Young territory. I'm fine with over 20 usage and over 20 assist for most guards. Point forwards need to pass the same bar. For shooting guards or movement shooting forwards I don't really care about assist percentage unless it's under 8 and usage should be above 16.

Team defense - Hard skill to evaluate without looking at tape. For bigs a high block rate can show potential as a rim protector. Higher than average block rate by position is usually an indicator of utilizing a plus wingspan. Steal rates for forwards and guards can show quick hands on digs. Often a high assist rate on the offensive end by position is indicative of high basketball IQ and shows up on the defensive end as well.

On-Ball defense - Highly dependent on athleticism and effort. Wingspan and weight can serve as markers for switchability. Standing vert, shuttle, and lane agility show functional athleticism, first step quickness, and ability to wall off driving lanes with horizontal "slide" ability.

A few guys who showed well in all categories: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Springer, Moses Moody, and Josh Primo.

Cade Cunningham - Definitely out of reach for the Magic.

Moses Moody - Should be available at 8. has a good wingspan. Doesn't look very quick to me, doesn't pass much, Doesn't have the quickest release, but can still splash even when contested.

Jaden Springer - Usually mocked to the Knicks or Rockets around 20. I don't really know how the Magic get into that range, but I love Springer. He's a year younger than most in the draft class.

Josh Primo - Also young and without the productivity of Springer. He should be available at 33. I wouldn't be mad if the Magic drafted him.

If someone has strong opinions about these guys I'd like to hear it in the comments.

Also, on paper Jalen Johnson looks amazing. His tape is wildly inconsistent though, He did not have a full senior year of high school and his college season was voluntarily truncated. He still plays an AAU style of ball and will need a ton of time and coaching. I'd be willing to take a flyer on him, but everyone else that I trust who does draft analysis is a hard pass on him. They know better than me. Hopefully I'll get around to writing more about him. Maybe in the comments

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.