Since the Orlando Magic let Jameer Nelson leave as a free agent in the summer of 2014, the team has lacked a reliable playmaker, and even Nelson's staunchest defenders would concede he was more of a shoot-first floor general than a traditional table-setter. In the intervening years, Orlando has relied on the likes of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Luke Ridnour, D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack, and Jerian Grant to run the offense. Markelle Fultz is the team's starting point guard of the future, given the four-year extension he signed before the current year tipped off, but an ACL injury ended his campaign prematurely. The rookie Cole Anthony is still learning the ropes, and Michael Carter-Williams has been pressed into point-guard duties after spending much of his first two seasons with the Magic as an off-ball cutter.
All of which preamble serves to set up this question question: who is the best passer on this Magic team?
I still happen to believe the best playmaking statistic is Pure Point Rating, an adjustment to the oft-cited assist-to-turnover ratio which weighs for minutes played and counts a turnover as more harmful than an assist is helpful. Of course it has its drawbacks, namely that it can't account for wide-open shots a given player created but which didn't result in an assist because the shooter missed the shot.
But Pure Point Rating is what I'm using here, to supplement the eye test, since the Magic's front office blew up the team at the NBA trading deadline. I am excluding bigs in this exercise.
| Player | Ast | TO | Ast/TO | Pure Point Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Anthony | 30 | 8 | 3.8 | 8.2 |
| Chuma Okeke | 36 | 13 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 32 | 16 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Dwayne Bacon | 19 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Terrence Ross | 27 | 13 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Gary Harris | 13 | 7 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| James Ennis | 23 | 10 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| R.J. Hampton | 13 | 15 | 0.87 | -2.6 |
| Chasson Randle | 9 | 13 | 0.69 | -3.2 |
Here's what stands out to me:
Anthony's development as a playmaker could be one of the stories of the Magic's season. In his first 25 games before sustaining a rib injury which sidelined him for nearly eight weeks, Anthony's Pure Point Rating stood at a middling 1.7. That he's managed to be so low-turnover despite returning in the midst of a roster shakeup bodes well for his future prospects as a creator for others.
Anyone watching Chuma Okeke in his rookie season would come away impressed with his feel for the game at both ends of the floor; he's an intelligent, heady player, and the numbers bear that out. Coach Steve Clifford has entrusted Okeke to run some pick-and-roll since the deadline, and it's bearing fruit. He has potential as a secondary playmaker, particularly in delayed transition after grab-and-go defensive rebounds.
The early returns on R.J. Hampton are mixed at best. There's no questioning his speed in transition and off the bounce, but he doesn't appear to have natural playmaking instincts. His blazing speed and loose handle make him turnover-prone, which is why entrusting him with running offense is a fraught proposition. Long term, as he learns to modulate his speed, he'll be better able to manipulate defenses and create for his teammates. For now, he should slot at the two-guard position and play alongside a more natural initiator.
The best illustration of Pure Point Rating's virtue as compared to assist-to-turnover ratio comes when you compare (recent FanPost subject) Dwayne Bacon to Anthony. Their assist-to-turnover numbers are similar, but the minutes adjustment in Pure Point Rating values Anthony's higher assist totals in a smaller minutes load.
Chasson Randle is struggling. His stock-in-trade is his outside shooting off the catch, but since the deadline he is connecting on a mediocre 35.7 percent of his three-pointers, and he has more turnovers than assists. With Carter-Williams ailing due to a badly sprained ankle, he figures to get some minutes backing up Anthony, but that's not ideal; he should probably share the floor with Okeke, at the very least, to ensure Orlando has enough sure hands on the floor.