It’s hard to believe that we have arrived already one-third of the way through the 2021-22 season, but here we are Magic fans.
Back in October, I posted for the Orlando Pinstriped Post Community some Orlando Magic related prop bets to track as the current season plays out. Now seems like as good of a time as any to check-in on the progress of everyone’s predictions - now 27 games into the schedule.
|Goldstone||Thorrison||BBQ C.M.||Troll Wiz||Lee Wells||TeekyLeeky||Nick DC||Ezy||three.three||Shagrs11||Townsend|
19.5 minutes per game
|Wendell Carter Jr.
99.5 3PTA's (season)
82.5 games played (combined)
36.5% on 3PTA's
199.5 minutes played together
8.5 times scoring 20+ points in a game
39.5 times scoring in double-figures
2.5 place finish in Rookie of Year voting
21.5 team assists per game
3.5 remaining players after NBA Trade Deadline
Below, you will find the same prop bets from earlier in the year divided into three categories: props that have already been decided, props that are looking good so far (to hit the ‘over’), and props that still are to be determined.
Make sure to follow along with our community, especially if you were one of the few who put yourself out there and made some predictions. We can revisit all of these props again two-thirds of the way through the season.
Are there any props that have already been decided...?
Wendell Carter Jr.
Over/Under - 99.5 three-point field goal attempts (season total)
Here’s a player prop that looks a lot better now marching through December than it did coming into this season (or at least it does for those of us that took the ‘over’). In fact, Wendell Carter Jr.’s 99.5 three-point field goal attempts (season total) prop has already cleared the OVER, 25 games through Orlando’s 2021-22 schedule. The fourth-year big man, who Orlando agreed to a contract extension with prior to the start of the season, attempted just 83 combined three-point field goals over parts of three seasons with the Chicago Bulls (2018-21, 119 games).
However, this season Carter Jr. has already attempted 101 three-point field goals through 26 games, connecting on 36 of those long-range shots (35.6 percent). Carter Jr.’s predilection - and relative success - to extend his range on the offensive end of the floor has been one of the more welcomed storylines of Orlando’s young season.
Over/Under - 8.5 times Cole Anthony scores 20 or more points in a game (season total)
As it turns out, this prop was the easiest ‘over’ of the bunch. Even after missing six straight contests in late November, Anthony still has already easily cleared this prop of 8.5 times scoring 20 or more points in a game. Clearly as one of the leading candidates for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award one-third of the way through the 2021-22 season, Anthony is averaging per game (20.3 points) the same amount of points that this prop was wagered upon.
Anthony has scored 20 or more points in 11 of his 20 games played so far this season, including three 30+ point games. In Year 2, Anthony has improved his field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, assist percentage, and offensive rating.
Which props are looking good so far...?
Over/Under - 19.5 minutes per game
With Nikola Vucevic no longer in the picture, Bamba is enjoying (easily) a career-high in minutes played per game during his fourth NBA season. Through 25 contests, Bamba has soared past this prop of 19.5 minutes per game, averaging 29.5 minutes per contest (25 starts).
Helping Bamba stay on the floor is the fact that head coach Jamahl Mosley has been willing to employ a ‘twin towers’ look of Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. on the floor together in Orlando’ first unit. Since this prop is an average minutes per game metric, which wouldn’t be affected if Bamba were to miss a few games here or there as the season carries on, I think it’s safe very safe to conclude that the OVER will definitively hit here.
Franz Wagner and Moritz Wagner
Over/Under - 199.5 total minutes the Wagner brothers share the floor together (season total)
According to NBA.com, the Wagner brothers have been on the floor together for the Magic for 103 total minutes this season, well ahead of the pace for those looking to hit the ‘over’ for this prop. By the way, the Magic hold a -6.3 net rating when the German brothers are playing alongside one another this season.
Of course, the Magic are going to want Franz Wagner on the floor as much as possible as the season moves along. And Moritz Wagner has carved out a limited role for himself on Orlando’s second unit (Okeke has been slow out of the gate, Isaac hasn’t returned, etc.). I would expect the OVER on this prop to easily hit by the end of the season.
Props that are ‘still to be decided’...
Over/Under - 36 percent on three-point field goal attempts
The ‘over’ is not looking good here for Okeke, now one-third of the way through his second professional season. After missing all of the team’s preseason games, and the first six games of the regular season, Okeke has been trying to get himself into a rhythm - with little luck seeming to come his way. Okeke suffered a hip injury prior to the start of training camp.
It’s unclear if the hip was still bothering him a bit when he finally returned to the lineup, or if he’s been just trying to shake off some proverbial ‘rust’, but the do-it-all forward has been off just about all season for the Magic. Okeke, who shot 34.8 percent from beyond the arc during his rookie season last year, has dropped down to just 22.6 percent on three-point field goal attempts this season (3.1 attempts per game). The Auburn product is playing just under 21 minutes per game in 2021-22.
Over/Under - 39.5 times R.J. Hampton scores 10 or more points in a game (season total)
Those of you that took the ‘under’ for this prop look to be in good shape. That’s not me by the way, I thought this prop - while admittedly juiced up relatively high for a second unit player - was a number that Hampton had a really solid chance of clearing this season. Technically, the second-year guard still has time to clear 39.5 times scoring in double-figures, but he’s going to have to start filling it up rather quickly.
Through the team’s first 26 games, Hampton has scored 10 or more points in a game just seven times (season-high 19 points against Milwaukee on November 20th). He’s cleared that number just once over the team’s last eight contests. Something to watch here: Hampton’s three-point field goal percentage has risen to 40% this season (from 31% last year), but his finishing at the rim has plummeted (66% last season, just 50% this year).
Jonathan Isaac & Markelle Fultz
Over/Under - 82.5 combined games played (season total)
While this prop is technically still ‘in the balance’, it’s not looking good for you if you took the ‘over’ 82.5 combined games played this season for Isaac and Fultz. Both working to come back from devastating knee injuries, neither Isaac nor Fultz have played in a game this season.
However, it does sound like Fultz is getting closer to returning to the floor. The fifth-year point guard, who suffered his ACL injury last December (after the Magic started the season 6-2), has been practicing in Lakeland with Orlando’s G-League affiliate for the last couple of weeks. And even more recently, it was reported by beat writer Dan Savage that Fultz had joined the team on their west coast trip (and was practicing with the Magic). The team will continue to be cautious and take a methodical approach with Fultz’s recovery process, so it remains to be seen when we will actually see Fultz in uniform logging minutes in a game.
But the news is great nonetheless, and Fultz sounds a lot closer to returning than Isaac, who the team has given very little new information on as he continues his fight to return to the team.
Michael Carter-Williams, Gary Harris, Robin Lopez, E’Twaun Moore, and Terrence Ross
Over/Under - 3.5 players in veteran group remaining on Orlando’s roster by March 1st, 2022
Really not a lot to update with this prop since the preseason. Obviously, the stakes will pick up as the season rolls along as far as how many of Orlando’s veterans remain on the roster by the beginning of March. The team is already sixteen games below .500 just 26 games into the season, so moving some veteran players to contending teams in exchange for a future asset or two is certainly not something out of the realm of possibility just a couple months from now. The only question, as far as this prop is concerned, is how many players will stay or go?
Over/Under - 2.5 place finish in NBA Rookie of the Year voting (under= 1st or 2nd place finish, over=3rd place finish or lower)
The majority of you who took the ‘over’ here (third place or lower finish for Suggs in Rookie of the Year voting) are looking good. Of course, that’s not where my allegiance was at for this prop in the preseason. I was really bullish on Suggs exploding on the NBA scene early, especially without Fultz in the lineup. He certainly had his moments prior to his right thumb fracture/injury, but this prop now looks all but lost (and wasn’t looking great before his injury for that matter).
In my opinion, I have Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley as the 2021-22 NBA Rookie of the Year through the first third of this season, slightly edging out Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes. Our guy, F. Wagner, is solidly in third place on that ladder based upon his play thus far this season (in my opinion).
Over/Under - 21.5 total team assists per game
Right now, the Magic are hovering right around this number, averaging 22.0 assists per game on the season. That number ranks Orlando in the bottom five of the league in that category (26th of 30), but it’s actually slightly up from what they were producing last season (21.8 assists per game).
Anthony has missed some time already this season, Suggs has missed some time, and Fultz hasn’t taken the floor. I may be wrong, but I’m bullish that this number will slightly increase by the next time I check-in with these props two-thirds of the way through the 2021-22 season.
Aaron Goldstone has been writing for Orlando Pinstriped Post since 2017. You can follow him on Twitter at @AaronGoldstone.