The Orlando Magic (30-35) have had a good season marred by injuries. Just when it seemed like the Magic gained their footing, someone went down with an injury causing yet another lineup shift. Despite the hardship, the Magic find themselves going into the bubble gunning for the 7 seed with Spencer Dinwiddie of the Brooklyn Nets testing positive for COVID-19 and having to sit out of the restart. How did the Magic find themselves in this position? What can fans look forward to in the restart? Let’s find out.
The Magic had a rough start to the season, going 7-11 through November, a 32-win pace. A critical factor in the early woes was the play of the bench unit which was ranked 5th worst in the league through end of November. Terrance Ross was deservedly taking some heat to start the season: he shot less than 20% from 3-point range and less than 30% from the field in his first 7 games. There were shifts in the bench unit with Markelle Fultz being promoted to the starting line-up, but neither of those two factors was as detrimental than Al-Farouq Aminu.
Aminu, who signed with a 3-year, $29M contract in July, was brought in to provide depth at the forward position and so that Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac in tandem without having to stagger their minutes. Aminu played a total of 18 games before suffering a torn meniscus on November 29th against the Raptors. After Aminu’s injury, which will likely keep him from playing in the restart, the Orlando Magic bench unit has ranked as the 9th best in the league by net rating and helped the Magic finish the season 23-24, on-pace for 40-wins.
Wes Iwundu and Michael Carter-Williams have been huge for the second unit and have really stepped up. When Iwundu and MCW play together, Orlando has +6.29 net rating! It will be fun to see them matchup against the playoff teams in the bubble and if they can keep up their play.
Coach Clifford deserves a ton of respect from fans for his ability to keep the Magic in a position to win as they continuously lost players to injuries throughout the seasons, forcing the team to constantly adjust who was available to suit up that night. Other than Jonathan Isaac who played a total of 32 games, no other starter missed more than 11 games, and it was rare for those injuries to overlap. Coach Clifford has already deployed 286 different lineups so far, nearly 80 more than all of last season.
Speaking of the starters, they have played as well as one could expect. While he did not get an all-star bid this year, Nikola Vucevic has kept up his great play and has continued to be an offensive weapon for the Magic. Evan Fournier has had an exceptional bounce-back year and he’s shooting over 40% on 3-pointers at nearly 7 attempts a game! Evan’s 18ppg and his floor spacing threat has also helped Fultz find his stride. His numbers aren’t mightily impressive, only averaging 12/3/5, but he’s been great at making Orlando’s offense work. When receiving a pass from Fultz, all the starters (excluding Jonathan Isaac due to sample size), have shot much better from deep:
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3pt % this season
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3pt % when receiving a pass from Fultz
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Net change
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Evan Fournier
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40.6
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42.5
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+1.9%
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Aaron Gordon
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30.1
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42.3
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+12.2
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Nikola Vucevic
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32.9
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34.2
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+1.3
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These numbers are a great sign for the team and the change in Aaron Gordon’s shooting is remarkable. Its clear that Fultz has been able to break down defenses and set up his teammates for great shots. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon have been taking some ball handling duties away from Fultz, it will be interesting to see how Coach Clifford balances facilitator duties in the restart.
Before going down for the season after a knee-collision against the Wizards, Jonathan Isaac was playing remarkably well. His defense was elite on and off the ball – even getting national praise and developing a case for Defensive Player of the Year. His offense had made significant strides and was much more comfortable dribbling the ball, attacking the basket, and shooting off the dribble. One of the more underrated developments was his ability to score in the post against smaller players. I was very happy to see this because Toronto was able to defend Isaac with the 6’0 Kyle Lowry which led to matchup advantages for Toronto since Isaac couldn’t take advantage.
Jonathan Isaac Season Highlights
That leaves Aaron Gordon, the most contentious piece of the Orlando Magic roster. Aaron is doing his best to fill multiple roles for Orlando, at times asked to lead the offense which he simply isn’t equipped to do. He is still a good defender, but his long-term fit next to Jonathan Isaac is in question due to his inconsistent shooting. The Magic do as well as Aaron shoots:
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3pt % in losses
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3pt % in wins
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25.9
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34.5%
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Aaron Gordon will only fit on this team if his role is changed. He is shooting a paltry 28.4% on pull-up 3s, but a passable 32% on catch-and-shoot 3s. Even if gives up some of his ball handling duties and is relegated more to catch-and-shoot scenarios, it’s a tough sell to put him next to Isaac and Fultz who both also need to develop their shooting. With so many teams desiring a versatile defender like him, it will be interesting to see how the Magic front-office sees his fit here.
Here are all of his 3pt attempts if you want to take a look:
The most promising stat is from earlier, Aaron Gordon has shot 42% from 3pt-range when receiving a pass from Markelle Fultz. That’s not sustainable, but even if it averages out to 35%, that’s more than good enough to buy into the tandem of Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon. At the very least, it boosts Aaron Gordon’s trade value if the Magic brass truly believe in Chuma Okeke who has yet to suit up or officially start his rookie contract.
Coach Clifford had the team playing their best basketball before the league shut down, lets hope they keep up what was going well and make some noise in the playoffs.