So let me say up front, I am not convinced the Magic need to "tear it down". But it has to at least be considered, given the situation. The Magic's top prospect (Isaac) is out for the year. The next 2 drafts are supposed to be above-average to great, ripe for tanking. Bamba suffered another setback, pushing back his timeline as well. Gordon is hitting 25, which is still young for most guys, but for a guy who relies on his athletic peak, means he's already in the middle of his prime, not starting it. Fultz is unproven, and his stats currently place him as a "decent backup PG on a good team" level. He could well improve, but again: unproven.
Taking a step back, trying to land some young prospects and/or draft picks from the players they current have that have trade value. Not only does that give Isaac & Bamba a free year to get healthy & experienced (respectively), but it also loads up the team with younger talent in case one/both of them aren't able to overcome the injury bug.
Again, this post isn't necessarily saying that I think they "should" tear it down...but it's a musing about what they could do "if" they decide the time is right.
So let's get started, shall we?
Trade #1: Big Swing
HOU gets: Aaron Gordon, Thaddeus Young, Tomas Satoransky
CHI gets: Russell Westbrook, 2020 ORL 1st Rd Pick (#15), Future HOU 2nd Rd Pick
ORL gets: 2020 CHI 1st Rd Pick (#4), Coby White, Cristiano Felicio
Why does Houston do this?
They get out from under Westbrook's contract, which combined with Harden's meant the team had lost all flexibility to build out the rest of the roster. It took an amazing slight-of-hand to land Covington, but with an aging core and with the firing of D'Antoni, they clearly want to to build a more traditional team, not a 2-man show. This lands them a better-shooting guard next to Hardin & Gordon with Satoransky. In addition, it reinforces their positionless forward/big rotation with Covington, Gordon, Young and Tucker. They look for another guard & a traditional big on the FA market, but they have a more balanced and deeper team that they've had the last couple seasons.
The Rockets don't have a lot of extra picks over the next couple years, but they do have a 2nd to include as sweetener to CHI for taking Westbrook's deal. For a team that is in full "compete now" mode, 2nd Rd picks don't mean a lot.
Why does Chicago do this?
One thing you need to know about the Chicago Bulls ownership, it's that they don't care about basketball. They care about money. And the 3 best ways to make money in the NBA is to have a big market, have a winning team, and/or have a big star. They'll always have the market, but the other two they have been missing. This is a swing that lands them a SuperStar player who puts up monster numbers -- as in jersey sales and ticket prices -- regardless of his on-court production or contract. Moreover, the "on court" production they lose in this trade is a veteran Young, a non-lead guard in Satoransky, and a young White who had a decent-but-not-great rookie season. Despite the injury concerns, a starting lineup of Westbrook, LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, Carter Jr actually looks pretty solid on paper. They also still retain a 1st round pick, even if it's #15 in a perceived weaker draft.
They certainly can't be much worse than they were this past season, when they were embarrassed by hosting All-Star Weekend with a losing team and no All-Stars. White's growth & whoever they take at #4 isn't going to right the ship, so they take a swing that Westbrook's fury & counting-stats help the rest of the group get easier looks. Even if he doesn't, it's likely they win more games. They also will be getting a better coach, replacing the horrid Jim Boylen with Billy Donovan -- who already knows Westbrook well. But really, more than anything, Russ puts butts in seats, and that's more important to ownership than the W-L column either way.
Why does Orlando do this?
They move up to the front of the draft to land someone who has some of the highest upside in the draft: Killian Hayes. He's going to take some time, being one of the youngest prospects in the draft, but he's already shown skills that should translate. Despite his terrible spot-up shooting, his pull-up jumper and FTs are going in at good %s, so long-term he seems able to be a solid shooter. He's got great size for either Guard spot, is a terrific passer, and even has the size to cover the wing on switches in a pinch. The Magic have time to let him learn form experience. Isaac is out for a full season. Bamba still needs to continue his slow climb. This gives Hayes a zero-pressure environment for the next year with plenty of minutes to cut his teeth.
To be clear, I think Gordon is still a solid player, and proven, which draftees aren't. But for a player who relies heavily on his athletic ability, he's likely in the middle of his "prime", not the start of it. His playmaking ability has grown, but his lack of shooting really makes it seem like his game won't age well when he can't overpower and out jump guys. I want him to break out, but that just won't happen with the Magic unfortunately. On the Rockets, next to Harden to draw attention from defenses, he could thrive.
Felicio is bad and overpaid, but is also on an expiring deal. He can either be used at the trade deadline, or (more likely) allowed to walk to free up ~$8M in cap room.
Trade #2: We Aren't Done with Untradable Contracts
DET gets: Nikola Vucevic, Future ORL 2nd Rd Pick
OKC gets: Blake Griffin, Markelle Fultz
ORL gets: Chris Paul, 2020 DET 1st Rd Pick (#7)
Why does Detroit do this?
Falling 2 spots in the lotto hurt for a team that is pretty bereft of assets. They don't have any young talent, and while there appears to be some decent rotation-talent to be had this far down, no one looks like a potential breakout candidate. They also hold of the the league's rougher contracts in Griffin, who's on-court play has been great even in recent history, but his inability to stay on the floor dampens any excitement about his return to the court.
This move is essentially a 'push' for them. They use the less-than-great #7 pick to get out from under Griffin's deal and get back a productive Vucevic only 1 full season removed from All-Star status. No team wants to be completely without veteran talent, so they can use him to bridge the gap or (more likely) look to flip him and Rose at a later date for either young talent and/or draft picks in one of the next two drafts, which are both supposed to be much deeper than the current one.
A 2nd Rd picks makes facilitating a future deal or grabbing super cheap talent in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough is included, but not much more considering there's very little market for Griffin otherwise.
Why does Oklahoma City do this?
Paul was a revelation, but the intention always seemed to be to move him after the season ended. SGA continued his breakout and it's time for him to take the helm as the leader on the roster. This move swaps Paul's massive deal for Griffin's slightly-less-massive deal, while filling the hole Gallinari will be leaving. Griffin will save them ~$12M over the next two years, and give them an added $6M in cap space during the vaunted 2021 FA Derby. Moreover, unlike Paul, Griffin's trade value has some potential to rise. If he comes back and plays well, mostly if he doesn't go down with another injury, his deal may end up being worth more than they could have gotten for Paul outright now anyways, that's a risk they take in hopes of a win-win.
Fultz is the bonus that makes trading a productive Paul for a risky Griffin worth it. He's still got 1 year left on his rookie deal, and coming off a season better than most people thought he would. He still doesn't stand out as a great PG yet, but there's clearly talent there, and beside SGA (both still being young) OKC could be looking a strong backcourt in the long-term.
Why does Orlando do this?
Paul's deal is crazy high, but he's still a productive player. Moreover, he's a productive player at the PG spot, which the Magic still desperately need -- and a position that I've slotted multiple other guards in that could be mentored by one of the best in the game. White and Hayes (and maybe 1 more, stay tuned) will have 2 seasons to learn from CP3. That's would get them valuable experience early, while handing them the reigns to the team while they still have lots of growth potential to explore.
Giving up Vucevic, who's on-court impact is still very good and on a MUCH better contract than Paul's, hurts...but the #7 Pick is another major get. With it, I take either Tyrese Haliburton or Devin Vassell. Haliburton appears to have the better upside, but there are concerns about his weight/strength. If he does though? In 2 years, once CP3 leaves, a Haliburton/Hayes pairing could be awesome, with White as the scoring spark plug off the bench. So I lean towards him. However, even though he's slipped in current mocks, his skillset is desired and established enough that I just imagine someone taking him before the #7 pick, so my backup option is Vassell. He would be a monster-pairing defensively with Isaac & can shoot, which is all that would be asked of him with multiple ball-handlers on the floor whenever he's out there already.
The 2021 draft has a fair amount of guards & wings, and I expect a team full of young guys to struggle some, so I assume the Magic will have a decent pick to find someone to fill whichever hole isn't filled.
Trade #3: Add More Rookies!
BOS gets: Khem Birch, 2020 ORL 2nd Rd Pick (#45)
ORL gets: Vincent Poirier, 2020 BOS 1st Rd Pick (#30)
Why Boston does this:
They currently have three 1st Rd picks this year. It's entirely possible they try to package them to move up in the draft. However, their roster is pretty stacked and they want to compete. The one position they struggled with was the Center spot. Sure, they could try to grab a higher pick to take one of the Bigs in the draft, but it's unlikely that anyone they get will help immediately. This move is a low-risk way to add a defensive-minded, proven Center who can cover minutes for them. It also only costs them 1 of the picks, leaving 2 picks available to still move up with if they want.
The 2nd Rd pick is nice as they can still get another shot at the draft without taking on a guaranteed contract. I'd consider including another Future 2nd if need be, but I considering Poirier seems like a non-player, I'm not sure it'd be needed.
Why Orlando does this:
I like Birch, and he's been great to help stopgap during Bamba's development. However, he's firmly in his prime and the Magic aren't competing in the next couple years. He's worth more than he's making, and there's no reason to pay him more to keep him long term. You flip his value and nab another 1st later in this draft to hopefully find some value.
At #30, I'm reaching a bit and taking Paul Reed. Currently he's slated as a high 2nd Rd pick in most mocks, but I'm gonna take a chance on him. He's basically a 21 yr old "diet-Isaac". He's a defensive-ace mobile Big with a limited offensive game, but has shown just enough flashes on that end for me to think he could develop enough to not hurt the team on that end. He's 6'9" tall, 220 lb, with a 7'2" wingspan. He not only is a great rebounder (10+ per game last season, 13 per36 in college, 25% DRB%), but he takes pride in rebounding the ball -- in an interview he said it was his goal to lead all rookies in rebounding his 1st year. Most guys don't target rebounding as a key stat they want to dominate, so I like that he is interested in the dirty-work. I also appreciate that he knows where his strengths are. He's a versatile defender who could will likely be a strong 1-5 coverage defender in the Isaac & Siakam mold. He put up an absurd 5 stocks per36 last season.
He doesn't have much offensive game to speak of, but did shoot 73%FT and hit 33% on 103 attempts from 3PT in college. His mechanics are odd, but seemingly correctable, and he shot ok-as-a-PF at the rim and from short-range. He won't light up the scoreboard, and probably never will...but keep in mind that I'm otherwise stacking the team with guards to run the offensive show. His defense & rebounding should translate, while he'll have time & a limited role to slowly get his offensive game to serviceable levels. As it stands, he's about 10-15 lbs away from being a strong PF/C energy guy who can defend all over the court, vacuum up rebounds, and hang out in the dunker-spot. On the off chance he does turn into an average spot-up 3PT shooter, suddenly he is an incredibly useful guy to slot in on the roster with a flood of high-upside guards.
Post-Draft Roster:
Guards: Chris Paul, Coby White, Killian Hayes
Forwards: Evan Fournier, Chuma Okeke, Al-Farouq Aminu, Paul Reed
Bigs: Mo Bamba, Cristiano Felicio, Vincent Poirier
Either Tyrese Haliburton (Guard) or Devin Vassell (Wing) depending on who's available.
The big hole on the roster is pretty obvious: Bigs. Other than Bamba, who is hardly "proven" at this point, there are no good Center options. In addition, at the PF spot the Magic are stuck with 2 rookies that still need to fill out some to play the Power position (Okeke, Reed) or Aminu, who was simply terrible last season.
Luckily, both positions have a glut of aging or fringe players who are available on the FA market. Since the skills for those positions are shifting so quickly, there's lots of guys in the churn that the Magic could scoop up for short term coverage until their core guys round into shape.
PFs: Harry Giles, Dario Saric, Gary Clark...nab one who can help fill some minutes with Aminu, Okeke, and Reed.
Cs: Alex Len, Aron Baynes, Nerlens Noel, Kyle O'Quinn...all find options for minutes behind Bamba.
One outside-the-box idea...I wonder if Dwight Howard would be willing to take the full-MLE for a full redemption-tour return to Orlando to finish his career. He's gotten his ring, and probably only has a couple seasons left in him at 34, but he was still a useful player and a heck of a defensive-mind for Bamba to learn from. I know lots of folks on this board would hate it, Dwightmare and all, but I'd be fine with it. Nab one of those other guys as a 3rd stringer, because I really don't imagine you want Felicio or Poirier as your safety net if there's an injury.
So yeah, this is MY fantasy post, so I'm gonna say:
Gary Clark at PF. I'd go Saric, but he's a RFA and if he takes a discounted deal I think the Suns match. So I take the guy the Magic know, and who availed himself well in the playoffs. He's essentially the 4th guy off the bench at the position, so that's fine. Recall that I don't mind losing right now, so more minutes for Okeke & Reed at the 4 is fine with me in terms of W-L, the caution is merely due to the physical demands on guys who are fresh to the league.
Dwight Howard & Kyle O'Quinn at Center, for the full Magic Reunion Tour. Howard signs the a 3yr full-MLE deal (with the final year as a player option) to close out his career in Orlando, while O'Quinn returns as the garbage-time guy who can handle full-time-backup minutes if need be.
Lastly I bring back MCW, Faizer is still under contract, and I begrudgingly let Augustin walk because I'm sure he doesn't want to be the 5th string PG on the roster. Let him ring-chase, he's earned it. If he WANTS to come back...yeah, I absolutely give him a deal. But I just don't think he'd want to, so I'm not going to include him here.
One guy I haven't talked about at all is James Ennis, who has a Player Option. He's only set to make $2M if he uses it, where he can probably get that on the open market if he wants. I think he likely uses it and looks for a new, longer-term deal elsewhere. However, if he does opt-in, I move him to a team for a 2nd Rd Pick. That's what the Magic gave up to get him, so it becomes basically a wash.
I haven't mentioned Fournier's player option because it's tough to imagine he uses it, given the $ situation of the league right now. If he does...woof, I don't know. I hate to lose talent for nothing, but he's pretty clearly not a long-term solution for the Magic in this scenario, so I probably let him go. For this, though, I'll assume the more likely outcome, in that he opts-in to his final season.
Final Roster:
Starters: CP3, Hayes, Fournier, Aminu, Bamba
Bench: White, Haliburton/Vassell, Okeke, Reed, Howard
Deep: MCW, Fraizer, Clark, O'Quinn
Shelf: Felicio & Poirier
The Magic take the 2020-21 season and put every veteran (& Bamba) on a minutes restriction:
CP3: 24 mpg; Fournier: 30 mpg; Howard: 24 mpg; Bamba: 24 mpg; Aminu: 24 mpg
That should put the rest of the new youth-core of Hayes, Haliburton/Vassell, & White at 24 mpg a piece; puts Okeke & Reed at 21 mpg, though if either of them outplay Aminu they could eat into his minutes. This allows all of them to get real experience, which is super helpful for a group that has 4 rookies & 1 sophomore on the roster. There will be plenty of mistakes, but that's ok. Paul won't love it, but the 2020-21 season will have a fair amount of losses, and nab a decent pick in the loaded 2021 Draft Class.
That sets up a huge jump for the 2021-22 season when Isaac returns & Fournier comes off the books. If they can move Aminu, maybe at the trade deadline, for an expiring deal, their cap sheet will be CP3's huge deal, Howard's MLE cost, and nothing but rookie deals. They should have a big chunk of cap room to add someone before extending Isaac.
I think next year could even be a similar OKC suprisingly good year, but for now I'll assume that a team that's half-rookies is going to struggle regardless of CP3's wizardry. But the following year...with the young talent going into their 2nd years, a decent FA pickup, and Isaac's return...woo boy that could be fun.