It’s only one more sleep until Orlando’s first round match-up with Toronto shifts to Florida. After splitting the first two games on the road the series is now effectively a best-of-five scenario, one in which the Magic have home court advantage. Before we move forward with Game Three, however, it’s worth our revisiting the carnage of the previous contest, which served as a rough reminder of life as an underdog in the NBA playoffs. Let’s get the autopsy started.
The Superstar and the Mid-Range
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16126701/1137666339.jpg.jpg)
Any discussion here has to start with Kawhi Leonard, whose dominant performance was built on the back of what many would typically consider an inefficient shot. Attempts from the mid-range -- the area that starts just inside the free throw line and stretches to about 20 feet -- are not as valuable as a shot from behind the arc, while the likelihood of converting them is significantly lower than something taken at the rim. You should be happy when the other team is settling for these, right?
Well, while that might be true in theory, what happens when you throw a superstar wing into the mix and afford him a sea of wide-open space from this range? From Orlando’s perspective, very bad things.
On the game’s very first possession Leonard took the ball at the top of the arc, moving first to his right before cutting back to make use of a high Marc Gasol (moving) screen. Aaron Gordon got hung up on the pick, Nikola Vucevic didn’t really step up to and challenge Leonard, and the result was an uncontested jumper from 16 feet. Swish.
This play is illustrative of much of Leonard’s night, and goes a long way towards explaining the beatdown suffered by Orlando. His next made jumper saw him first come off another Gasol screen to pop free on the left wing. He received a pass from Kyle Lowry as he turned the corner, and although Gordon got around the pick and funneled him towards where he thought the help defense would come from, it never arrived. Vucevic was again a step too slow, and Leonard didn’t hesitate to pull up and drill another uncontested J from the free throw line.
The Toronto superstar continued to torture Orlando from this area of the floor. He picked off a lazy pass at one end then jetted down the court and hit another pull up, this one from 10 feet over a lazy Evan Fournier, who pushed him to the middle of the floor but didn’t stay attached or keep his hands raised and active. His next bucket again came against Fournier, who ceded the lane too easily and failed to effectively get a hand in his face. He finished his personal scoring barrage for the quarter in isolation against Gordon, juking him and making a final tough jumper from 17 feet over an outstretched hand. The rhythm was well and truly established.
Leonard was amazing all night, but it was in this first quarter when he was at his most destructive. In addition to his scoring he also had a pair of beautiful assists, both created by his insistence on attacking into this mid-range space around the free throw line. On one sequence he sprung Serge Ibaka for an uncontested dunk with a pump-fake and kick-out; Gordon, realizing the threat of Kawhi drifting to the free throw line, hesitated on a help rotation for a split second, torn between denying his man an open jumper off a kick-out or sliding to intercept the now rumbling Ibaka. He chose wrong and Ibaka stuffed it in.
When Kawhi subbed out with 2:17 remaining in the opening quarter he had 12 points and 2 assists, and he probably should have had a few more of each (he missed a pair of wide open threes). More significantly, the Raptors were up 24-13 and the blueprint for the rout had been established. For the Magic it was uphill sledding against one of the game’s best right from the very first possession.
As the game progressed one could see the Magic defense anticipating his forays into this area, choosing to sag off Leonard some in the hopes of taking this space away from him. The result, of course, was all the time in the world to launch from deep, which he did with aplomb; he went 4-6 from beyond the arc through the game’s final three quarters. For the night he finished with 37 points and 4 assists on an absurd shooting line of 15 from 22, good for a true shooting percentage of .793. It was a genuine superstar performance for which Orlando had no answers.
The Underdogs and a Loss of Control
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16162103/usa_today_12544095.jpg)
Orlando were wasteful with the ball in Game 2, frequently coughing up possession and making it basically impossible to establish any sense of rhythm on offense. The aggressive Raptors’ defense flustered them, with multiple possessions coming to an abrupt end after a Magic ball handler dribbled into a double team and saw the ball poked loose. They also seemingly forgot that their opposition had functional arms, lofting a number of lazy passes that were either deflected or outright grabbed by active defenders. With the ball in hand there was a general lack of alertness to the team’s game, perhaps best demonstrated by Vucevic pivoting and making a pass directly to a late trailing Leonard.
All up, the Magic had 17 turnovers for the game, a staggering 10 more than the Raptors conceded. Gasol, Leonard and Lowry were all ballhawks, taking advantage of sloppy play and punishing the unfocused freneticism of Orlando’s early-game performance in particular.
The Raptors didn’t get a huge amount of points directly off these Orlando turnovers (in fact, that’s a count that Orlando won 26-9). However, they robbed the Magic of valuable scoring opportunities, while also fueling Toronto’s fast break game. They ended up with 15 points in transition, with a couple of early turnovers gifting them momentum and serving as the necessary encouragement to continue pushing the pace.
Vucevic was a pronounced worry in this regard. He has struggled mightily through the first two games of the series, and on Tuesday night he simply couldn’t handle the speed and intensity of the double teams that the Raptors sent his way. Gasol did a fantastic job of forcing him away from the basket and into some sub-optimal positions on the floor, and when the closest help defender swarmed him after the entry pass he struggled to read the play and find the right kick out. It didn’t help that his teammates saw the closing lanes and advantageous spot up positions largely taken away by the energy of Toronto’s defense, but there’s no denying that Vooch needs to be better. He ended up with more turnovers than made field goals (4 to 3); the Magic won’t stand a chance of winning this series if they continue to get basically nothing from their All-Star.
This season the Magic have proven themselves to be a risk-averse offensive team that limit turnovers and get to the end of possessions. For a side that already has some difficulties scoring the ball, it’s imperative that they recapture that form immediately.
Lessons Unlearned
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16162107/1137671627.jpg.jpg)
After Game 1, we were able to identify three different areas that the Magic gained a decisive advantage from in their upset win: defensive rebounding, the free throw line, and three-point shooting. While the team still did an excellent job on the defensive glass, they weren’t quite as successful in this outing with the other identified gameplay factors.
In the first game, Orlando played aggressively in establishing a sizeable advantage at the free throw line. They made twice as many of these attempts as the opposition, while also doing a good job of generally denying the Raptors this source of easy points. In many ways the script in Game 2 flipped.
Although they actually took more attempts from the free throw line in this one, they converted at a paltry rate, making just 13 of their 24 attempts (54%). Gordon, Vucevic and Ross combined to shoot an inexplicable 3 of 12 on these gimmes; some regression was rightfully expected after the trio were a combined 100% on Saturday, but this was extreme.
This was compounded by the extra opportunities they gifted the Raptors. Toronto got there a handful more times in this game compared to the last, while their shooting also bounced back after an off night in Game One; this time they knocked down 16 of the 17 shots they received. Nick Nurse’s side were an excellent free-throw shooting team during the regular season, and if they continue to get easy chances like this they’ll more often than not capitalize.
Something else that was expected by many and proven to be right was a cooling off of the Magic’s shooting from deep. After going gangbusters in Game 1, they came back to earth in mighty fashion on Tuesday, connecting on just 9 of 34 long-range attempts (26.5%). Jonathan Isaac went 0-6 and Fournier just 2-7, while the previous start’s hero, D.J. Augustin, only got a single attempt up for the night (which he missed). It might not always feel like it, but Orlando are a better three-point shooting team than this, so there’s a strong chance those numbers bounce back as soon as Game 3. Yet, there remains more they can do to make this easier on themselves.
Disappointingly, the Magic failed to seek out more opportunities from the corners. In the series opener they were able to go 4-8 from here, with Gordon, Fournier and Isaac all making good on this valuable shot. However, in Game 2, Orlando only got up 5 attempts from this spot on the floor, making just 2 (one of which was a meaningless late triple by Jarell Martin). They were unable to find their way back here against a locked in Raptors’ defense, settling for a long distance shot profile more similar to that they established during the regular season. Moving forward in the series they’ll need to try to repeat their Game 1 three-point shooting act if they’re going to give themselves a real chance of toppling the higher seed.
Something that was maybe lost in the fervor of the Game 1 win was just how good a side Toronto are when they’re firing on all cylinders. They came out with something to prove last start, knotting up the series and seemingly snatching from Orlando all the momentum they had built up.
The Magic might have landed the first blow but now they’ve been hit with a counterpunch. How they respond will be key.