FanPost

How valuable is Evan Fournier?

It is no secret that Elfrid Payton has, with agonizing regularity, sent pangs of fury and wistfulness through the Magic fanbase over the last few years. The promise of promise has faded for those that believed in him and the anger over drafting him for those who never believed was sharpened. Ousting Payton's champion Hennigan and turning Payton over at the deadline has lifted the fog of despair that clouded Magic hopes. Unfortunately, the way forward is not clear; despair has been replaced by ennui as the rebuild restarts and looks to be just as arduous as the first time around. The antipathy for Payton and all things Hennigan has bled across all facets of the current roster. In the face of uncertainty and with the inertia of failure from the previous regime Magic fans have glommed onto whoever and whatever presents even a sliver of hope. The most pernicious of these hopes is the potential trade of Evan Fournier. As one of the few players with real starter chops in the Magic lineup almost all prospective trade proposals and draft night pyrotechnics flow through the French guard. I would caution against the trading of Fournier without massive compensation. I fear that a player of Fournier's caliber is not easy to find.

How good is Fournier exactly? I would place Fournier about tenth among shooting guards in the NBA. If we don't count ball-dominant players like Oladipo he moves up to about fifth. Fournier is a 38% 3-point shooter with an assist rate of 15% and a steal rate of 1.5% both about average for a two guard. he can switch one through three, which he often does at the international level, but struggles against bigger threes and quicker ones, as most players at his position do. He is subpar on defense, but not to such a degree that he hampers an entire defensive scheme. He has guarded Kevin Durant and Goran Dragic ably in the past and is just fine running around screens with his opposing counterpart. On the offensive end he is a very good catch and shoot player and if he grabs a handoff going towards the center of the floor he is an efficient and able scorer and distributor. Put him outside specific plays run for him, though, and he struggles. The entire package leads to a player that can space the floor and create a bit while providing adequate defensive skills.

What is an archetypal two guard worth in the current NBA? The consensus amongst the commentariat for the best skills a two guard can possess have become shooting and switchability on defense followed close by shot creation, whether for themselves or others. Fournier fits the bill for one of the two major skills and offers a bit of the other coveted skills, though he is not overwhelming at either. In short, he is a league average two guard in the NBA. If he did everything he would be an all-star, but he does a bunch and is solid at secondary skills. This puts him squarely in the center of the starting player salary category and players who are of starting quality, but not stars, usually receive between 15 and 20 percent of the salary cap. This would have been between 9 and 12 million under the 60 mllion cap and is 15 to 20 million under the current 100 million dollar cap. Fournier makes 17 million and will for the next three years. This is market price for a player of his caliber, but not necessarily a significant trade chip.

If the Magic plan on keeping Gordon through restricted free agent we can look at some numbers from nbawowy to see some offensive and defensive efficiency ratings with Vuc, Fournier, and Gordon, who I assume are the locked in bits of the starting lineup next year. If these three can manage a positive plus/minus and a league average bench is cobbled together reaching the playoffs is an achievable goal. In 846 minutes last year when all three were on the floor opponents had an efficiency of 112.5 points per possession, which is pretty horrendous but eclipsed by a Magic rating of 113.4. Reaching back a bit further from the 15-16 season through 17-18 with Payton off the floor this "core" has posted a rate of 109.3 while giving up 106.5 in 749 minutes. If we add in Payton the defense drops to a horrendous 114.2 while the offense stays at a pretty steady 110.7. In the small sample size when Payton did not share the court with Vuc, Fournier, and Gordon last year the offense was 112.4 and the defense was 107. If the front office stays steady through the summer and adds to these three the numbers suggest that the Magic starters will be a net positive for the first time in a long time. Gordon is likely to marginally improve while Vuc may be cresting on his age curve. I'm not sure whether Augustin and Simmons/Ross or whoever is acquired to fill the one and three roles can be league average, but if they can manage it, and the front office doesn't throw out talent in response to an understandably strained fan opinion, the Magic are well positioned to make the playoffs.

The hope of a late lottery pick for Fournier seems ambitious, but even if a team was willing to trade out I don't think there's a good chance that the front office can find a player of Fournier's caliber in the draft. A few of the players likely to be available who seem promising are Zhaire Smith, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges, Lonnie Walker, and maybe Collin Sexton if he falls a bit. All of these players have strengths and the potential to outclass Fournier given time, but I wouldn't bet on it. And that is precisely what trading Fournier would be; a stab at what is a murky proposition at best. It is tempting to look at a player's draft potential and mortgage what is an already known quantity. For instance, I love watching Zhaire Smith play. I think he'll be successful in the league. Very successful. But its important to remember even the prospects that appear this way fail to become starters about 50% of the time. We could keep Fournier add a potential franchise player and grab two role players on good contracts at the beginning of the second round, or we could swing for the fences on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Miles Bridges. I wouldn't recommend it.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.