Welcome, welcome. Meet your 2017-18 Orlando Magic!

Wondering how we got here? Wondering what I’m talking about? Wondering if I’m crazy? Well, dear readers, buckle up, because things. Are about. To get. Weird.

Some Background:

As has become a yearly tradition over at Canis Hoopus, we’ve run what we call a Fake Mock Draft. That’s a bit of a misnomer. While it is a simulation, and therefore "fake," the thing we are simulating is not a mock draft, but rather the actual draft, as well as the offseason surrounding it. Pretending that some cataclysm or mass kidnapping has removed from power all the General Managers in the NBA, their respective jobs are granted to volunteers from the denizens of the Timberwolves SB Nation site. Why? Who can say. That’s just the way the world works. Many of us are granted power over teams that we don’t follow closely, with players that we don’t have strong emotional ties to. As such, things can get a little crazy, and the shape of the league rarely resembles the starting point when everything’s said and done. This year it was curbed somewhat by our de-facto League Commissioner (the inimitable @nba_poop_hat) taking control of a few "boring" teams (those with no draft picks) as well as the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers, so that no one could decide to blow them up for picks and assets. Believe me, it’s happened before, and it made things make even less sense at the end than they did this year.

I was given the lovely task of overseeing your Orlando Magic. Here’s how it went.

Starting points:

I’ll admit, I have not paid much attention to the Magic this year. I can’t even remember that much notable about the times the Wolves played them. That’s not a good sign.

(Sidebar: there’s going to be some playful ribbing in here, and I hope you’ll forgive me, understanding that the Wolves also suck)

My first instinct, being a Southern California native and a Disneyland truther, was to burn the franchise to the ground and salt the earth under the team that dares to share a city with Disney World. After suppressing that urge, I laid myself some goals for the franchise.

1. Give Vogel no option but to play Gordon major time at the PF position

I like Gordon, but I think if he’s going to make it in today’s NBA, he’s going to have to play the 4. Either that or you have to surround him with some pretty good shooting, and shooting is difficult and expensive to come by in the current climate.

2. Make the Magic entertaining in the short term

You guys lost a lot of games last year, and I know from recent experience that that’s not always the most entertaining product. I didn’t want to "Nets" you and completely mortgage any possible future for a shot at the 6 seed, but I did intend to field a more competitive team in the next two years if I could.

3. Have some fun

This one’s pretty self-explanatory, but it means that I went into this exercise a little more fast and loose than you might expect your typical GM.

The Moves:

So now, let’s discuss how we got from where you guys currently are, to where that spreadsheet is.

Trade #1:

ORL receives: Al Horford

BOS receives: Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross

This was a weird trade. Boston was attempting to get a little salary cap relief as they went after Carmelo Anthony and Paul George in a win-now, consolidate-assets move. If they wanted to do that, they needed to move some of their current high-priced pieces for a few more flexible assets. I honestly don’t know how you guys are going to view this one, but I love Horford’s fit next to Gordon. He stretches the floor and adds some playmaking from the 5, which should open up the offense for other players to be less than stellar shooters. In addition to his offensive capabilities, he’s a competent to good defender, and is under contract for three more years before becoming an unrestricted free agent. He’s on the older side, but I expect his game to age rather gracefully, especially if he can continue being a plus shooter for the center position.

Vucevic has been a competent center by most metrics, and he’s probably on a fair contract. Ross, likewise, is competent to replaceable, and is probably on a fair contract considering the world of infinite cap space we’ve lived in since the new TV deal. But Orlando seems to have too many of those "this guys is probably fine and on the edge of fairly paid" guys, so I took a chance to get a heavy contributor on a good contract for two guys who are about to peak as rotation level players (especially with the better fit of Horford)

Trade #2:

ORL receives: Festus Ezeli, Davis Bertans, 2017 #26, 2019 SAS first round pick (top-8 protected, becomes 2020 second round pick if not conveyed)

SAS receives: Mario Hezonja, CJ Watson

There’s a world in which Super Mario becomes a positive contributor to a team. I felt little confidence in that occurring, so any return I could get for him was a plus in my book. He’s young, so he could figure it out, but he’s been pretty atrocious by most measures, to the point where just rolling the dice on some more picks probably gives about the same expected return (if not better). On the other end, Watson seems to have been passable three or four years ago, and putrid in the last two seasons. I was happy getting his salary off the books if for no other purpose than to rotate through some D-League players in the coming year. Ezeli brings me further from my dream of Gordon at PF, but his salary is unguaranteed, and he’s a bit of a "buy-low" candidate given his injury history. Likely, he’ll be cut for salary purposes, but if he evaluates well by the Magic’s medical staff, he could conceivably be a decent backup 5 going forward. Bertans is a young-ish player who I like and has shown flashes of decent shooting this year. He’s not under contract for as long as I’d like, but he’s an RFA in 18-19, so if he fits well, the Magic will have a decent chance of keeping him. He’d likely have to play the four to be most effective, but with his shooting, it doesn’t hurt you as much if he’s paired with Gordon. SAS wanted a protection on the 2019 pick, and I was happy to give it to them since I correctly divined they would not be trading Kawhi, who I believe could single-handedly prevent a team from ending up that high in the lottery.

Draft #1

ORL picks (#6): Jonathan Isaac

I expect this might be a little bit of a divisive move. Here’s who went before my pick at #6:

Markelle Fultz - Boston

Josh Jackson - Phoenix

Lonzo Ball - Denver

Jayson Tatum - Los Angeles

De’Andre Fox - Sacramento

So the remaining players that were real candidates come pick #6 in my mind were: Isaac, Monk, DSJ, and OG Anunoby. Monk’s shooting is a tantalizing skill if he can put it to use in the NBA. The conditional in that statement it important though, and shooting is one of the hardest skills to predict for transference to the NBA level. Isaac was actually fourth on my board, and I’m a huge proponent of BPA drafting, so when he fell to me at #6, I was perfectly happy snagging him. He projects as a plus defender who can be happy switching 2-4. It will take a little while to get there, but that’s true of almost any drafted player. In addition, while he may may end up being best at 4 (ugh, again…), if his shooting can translate, he’d also be a good fit next to Gordon in a switchy, active defense.

Trade #3:

ORL receives: Malik Monk (pick #7)

CHI receives: 2017 #s 25, 33, 35

Well, I shouldn’t have put so much effort into deciding who to take at #6. The Chicago GM got (understandably) into the drafting aspect of this whole exercise, and in my mind overvalued the extra picks he ended up with. Both this and the Horford deal were ones where emails I sent out as sort-of feelers ended up getting accepted with fewer counters than I anticipated. If Monk can make his shooting translate to the NBA, he could be a real scoring threat, even if it’s only ever on the catch.

Trade #4

ORL receives: Monta Ellis, #20

MIL receives: DJ Augustin, #26

And now we reach the marginal moves. Augustin is old, small, and bad. Not a great combination, especially since he’s under contract for three more years. Ellis has one more year and a player option that’s tricky to figure out if he’ll exercise. He might try to go for one more long-term contract, or try to take the $11 million he’ll earn and take whatever he can after that. He has also been old and bad, but in three of the last four years, he’s actually posted a positive RPM. Hopefully he can stabilize somewhat and provide a little punch off the bench. I was also able to finagle moving up a little in the draft, for no real reason other than securing more flexibility in who I was able to draft.

Draft #2

ORL picks (#20): TJ Leaf

This one’s a bit of a reach. If I were doing this as an actual GM, I’d probably have taken any of Luke Kennard, Jawun Evans, or Justin Jackson, all of whom were available when I picked. Leaf, however, is the beneficiary of both an inside joke on Canis and an outstanding performer in a draft model that a friend and I have been working on. He’s also the third player in this draft that the Magic will be getting, so he’s not going to be the only player I’m pinning my hopes on.

Almost Trade #5

For a while, I was in talks with the Knicks about moving a number of players. They wanted to bolster their shooting with Fournier, but I was too short on guards to give him up without getting a shooter back. I think he’s on a fine, if not stellar contract, and hope his defense can show some signs of improvement. The Knicks were also interested in taking on Biyombo’s contract. This was more appealing, but I decided I’d rather have him stick with the team. He’s been pretty atrocious on the offensive side, but he’s shown some strength on defense, and my guess is he’s really more of a 5 anyway. If he can play himself into some value in the next season to season-and-a-half, he can either continue contributing to the Magic, or he can be moved for a greater return than what I’d get now.

(For reference, the suggested trade was Tyler Zeller [non-guaranteed contract] for Biyombo and a protected first round pick, which I likely would have tried to work down, but that’s the general scale)

All Wrapped Up

Alright, let’s see what we’re looking at, lineup-wise.

Oh. Oh god. Dammit.

Gordon’s going to have to continue starting at the 3. There’s just too many frontcourt players to have that not be the case. Worse, Biyombo has to start at the PF spot to let him hopefully play into some value. The one saving grace, is that I expect Leaf/Isaac/Bertans/Fournier to rotate through the 3 and 4 spots heavily. Whoever’s hot on a night, or a week, or whatever, Vogel can experiment with tons of combinations. The PG spot is a bit rough, but I’m counting on Payton to continue figuring out how to handle himself on the court. PG may be the toughest position to learn in the NBA, and if he can keep growing, he could get to passable-good.

I honestly don’t know how many games the Magic will win next year. Horford is a major upgrade, but other than that, they’ll be starting the same lineup that they did this year. Most of the players first off the bench are either aging role players or rookies, and rookies suck at NBA basketball. I’m just under the cap, with 12 players on the roster. Garino and Rudez could probably be re-signed for low level contracts to ride the bench. My guess is I’d let Meeks walk, but I haven’t looked much into that.

Where it gets more interesting is two to three years down the line, when Isaac and Monk have hopefully started to contribute. They’ll have to, because much of the cap space that’s currently projected as free will be tied up in re-signing Gordon (if he looks like he’s worth it) and Payton (likewise). Moving Biyombo in a year could also free up some space, but not enough to think about signing a max player, for instance.

On the plus side…

The Magic still own most of their picks, in addition to a few others. If they continue to be lottery bound, those could still turn into useful players. Ideally though, the Magic would be chasing a playoff spot next year (surprisingly possible, given the East got a lot weaker by the end of this exercise), and looking at trying to get homecourt advantage in the first round by 18-19 or 19-20.

Worst case? Gordon doesn’t look like a difference maker, Payton never really puts it together. None of Isaac/Monk/Leaf hit star status, and Biyombo has to be dumped for basically nothing. But that’s basically the worst case scenario for every team who won 29 games in the previous season.

My guess is that I raised the floor of the Magic over the short term. Horford Is a good player, and makes it a little easier to play Gordon and Biyombo as starters, even if it’s still far from ideal. I think I also raised the floor in the mid-term. Isaac and Monk are good players to bet on, especially if Gordon stays. Isaac could become an elite defender and be a good offensive player. Monk could give the Magic a real scoring punch. The only place I think I really made the Magic pay, is in the possibility of a championship run in the next ten years, but honestly, I have a hard time envisioning that in their current state anyway (no offense here, I’m not sure I see it for the Wolves either). It was a very small chance that I made slightly smaller, but I was willing to take that tradeoff to greatly accelerate their rebuild towards playing fun basketball that could put people in seats for games that meant something.

So I failed in my main goal, but by my estimation, I succeeded in two others. In the moment, I also felt like I handily won most of the trades, even if the result didn’t end up with a championship contender (or even a top seed in the East) in the short term.

So what say you? Have I irreparably damaged your favorite franchise? Do you think I’m batshit crazy? Would you like to contact the Magic and tell them to hire me?

If you’d like to read all the craziness, you can check out the threads as they transpired here:

First thread

Second thread

Third thread

Free agency is starting

Or if you’d just like an overview, you can check out the teams’ spreadsheets here (not everyone is 100% up to date, but you can get an idea).