This is a long post.... I've been reading a lot this season, but haven't posted for a while, and it's sort of all come at once... It's been a real mixed bag so far this year. Unpredictable, with some notable road wins, and classic 3QCs at home. So here's my review of what we've seen so far.

General - I still see a lot of encouraging signs, but some glaring issues that don't seem to have easy fixes. I think we're not too far away from being a genuinely good playoff team, although it's tough to see the route how we get there.

There are a lot of teams that are struggling, but are being led by a star player who just can't do it alone. Pelicans and Davis is probably the clearest example, but you could say similar to Pacers (PG13), Wizards (Wall), Portland (Lillard), Kings (Cousins) etc. We are a bit of an anomaly, as we're floating around the third quartile of teams without a real star player. You could make a case for Ibaka, Fournier or Vooch as the teams best player, but none of these are in all-star contention.

So why are we not sinking like a trace like the Nets, Sixers, Suns? I think we have a good roster of role players, but are just lacking a star to take over a game. Ibaka has had the most flashes of this, maybe followed by Vooch and Fournier (with very occasional moments form others like EP and AG), but we lack that go-to guy. We are basically a team of very good 2nd and 3rd options and role players.

So how do we correct this?

1. Obviously, there is the potential to draft a star, but given that we are likely to be picking 8th-10th this is far from a reliable route.
   
2. There is the possibility that a current player breaks out, but this is looking less likely.
   
3. There's the chance of picking someone up by trade, but real stars don't tend to go to mediocre teams unless there is some real compelling rationale (hometown link, big market, upcomoing draft picks and assets etc) - so this also looks less likely.
   
4. So that leaves free agency. This is far from straightforward, as a lot of top players want to go to a big market or contender. So you probably end up overpaying for a 2nd tier free agent.

I think the plan form Hennigan and Vogel will have been to try and squeak into playoffs, leaving some cap flexibility (farewell Jeff...) and then make a run for someone telling them that this is the chance for them to be the guy. You make a run at a big player who is 2nd option at a top team (Griffin, Lowry) and appeal to their ego (and wallet). All of these sorts of players would be tricky, but if you can sell them a team that is a playoff team without them, with them leading the franchise beyond along with good money and the state tax benefit, there's some hope. The challenge is that whilst this pitch is a challenge from an 8th seed, it's near impossible for the team 12th in the east.

Coach - I think Vogel is doing a decent job. He's still finding his feet, and you can only work with the roster that you have, but I think Vogel is one of the better coaches out there that would be attainable for us. He deserves to be given time to develop his system. There are areas of concern (too much usage of Green), but we'll see how this develops. A solid 7 out of 10 from me so far.

Player by Player

DJ Augustin - You know what you get with DJ. He can shoot the 3, create his own shot and he gives real effort. He is however, not a prime creator and his lack of size can be an issue on the defensive end. I see why Vogel elevated him to the starting 5, but I think he's more of a decent back-up who can provide a spark off the bench than a real starter over the longer term. 7.25mm/p.a. is about fair value.

Elfrid Payton - EP continues to be an enigma. He has moments where he can do things that even elite point guards can't do. But there are still enough glaring holes in his game that he's not a starter on a below average team. Shooting and fighting through screens are still big weaknesses. Taking him out of the limelight seems to be helping, but we need to see real progress on these two facets or he'll never be a solid starter. Given rookie contract, he has trade value. I wouldn't be averse to seeing him go in the right deal, but it seems like a lot has been invested in him, so think he's here to stay in most cases.

CJ Watson - It just hasn't worked for Watson. Augustin looks a better shooter, Payton the better creator, and he's not a great defender either. $5mm/p.a. is too much for a 3rd option PG. I'd happily see him go, but not sure who would take him. Best hope is that another team get's an injury and will swap a low pick for a vet.

Evan Fournier - Evan has played ok. He's progressing slightly, as expected, but he's still not a franchise player. He's fairly paid at $17mm/p.a. And I think if we got someone to take defenders attention away from him he could be a great 2nd/3rd option. His defence seems a little overvalued, and he needs a bit more strength to go with his height.

Jodie Meeks - Not a bad addition, but hard to get to excited. He can shoot and gets the odd steal, but his biggest strength seems to be drawing contact. Although given a lot of this is by leaning in, and he's not a Harden/Westbrook who gets calls by default, it seems to be a case of whether the ref on the night likes his style. Add to that the streaky shooting and he's a guy who you want the option to use but not the necessity. Given we have him on a 1y deal, I like the flexibility, but would hope that in a years time he's taught the roster how to draw contact, and then can go on his way.

CJ Wilcox - A shooter who hasn't been given enough time to get a rhythm, and from little we've seen doesn't seem to warrant it. Classic DNP-CD material. Uses a spot for relatively little. No clear future at the Magic.

Mario Hezonja - The enigma. I'm still a long way from wanting to give up on him. He has such clear talent, and form all accounts is a hard worker. The issue I've seen seems to be psychological and self-perpetuating. He has a couple of bad games, drops minutes, and then looks to overcompensate by a bit of hero-ball. He takes bad shots, and crucially gambles on D to try and get the steal rather than doing the basics. I'm fine with him as an average defender before he tries to cover deficiencies of others. Hopefully they get a sports psychologist on with him, ease him back into the rotation, and build him up. His stock has fallen enough that I don't think he's trade bait. I want him to be given a chance. He's still young, on a long and cheap contract and has plenty of time.

Aaron Gordon - AG has real physical gifts. He also is having more stretches of dominant play - Memphis being a great example. I like that he's not forcing things too much, but he does seem to be a bit lost sometimes. I think he's a better player than last year, but the progress isn't taking enormous strides. My biggest frustration is that he's a 4 not a 3. Maybe he's being kept as insurance in case Serge bolts, but if we sign a more natural 3 then he'll head to the bench. Given his upside, the big question is will he become the franchise player for us, or is he trade bait? I think alongside Vooch, he is our best tradable asset as a lower quality starter, with real potential on a good deal. But I would only want him to go for a 'sure thing'.

Jeff Green - People always talk about veteran presence, but if the vets in question are lazy on D and take bad shots, I'm not sure how that is supposed to have these spillover effects. I'm glad the experiment of him starting is over, and I think he can do a role deep on the bench, but to me he's trade filler/cap usage. You could see a package of him + AG + picks for a better player on a high value longer contract, that will give us a lower star, and the buying team a guy with talent, a pick and imminent cap space. Because there is no other way that you can look at $15mm p.a. and see that Jeff Green is the 3rd best player on the team

Serge Ibaka - I think Serge has played well. The big question is whether he stays. He's come to step out of Westbrook's shadow and has done that well. However, despite his good play, he's not of the calibre to pull us up on his own. Would be a great second option, and maybe he's be happy to do that if the first option isn't as much of a ball-dominator as Westbrook. At the moment, I'd keep him, I'd pay up, but I'd also need either a star or cap room to try and get one. If he walks after this year, then giving up Vic and Sabonis doesn't look smart.

Damjan Rudez - decent deep bench fodder. Seems like a good guy to have around. Stretches the floor. But doesn't have the physical skills to work his way into more minutes. He has his role and for <$1mm/p.a. he's a good guy

Nik Vucevic - Nik really frustrates me. His skills are fantastic. a 7 footer with range and a good rebound % is a great combo. He's stepped up his D under Vogel, but I still want to see a bit more fire. He's not a demonstrative, emotional guy, and never will be. But I'd like to see a bit more strength and hustle, bullying people with his size. He's a better player than Biyombo, but Vogel seems to think less of a fit. And will he be content coming off the bench (albeit with high minutes) for a lottery team? I also think he has real trade value. He's a good, proven player, and is on a long contract at $11-13mm/p.a. Better teams will want him as a cheaper, better version of someone like Kanter. Other struggling teams will be able to offer him a starting role.

Bismack Biyombo - I like his hustle, effort and physicality. He also does well on the things like screens that don't hit the stats sheets. But 17mm/p.a. on a long contract for a player who is so limited on offense and is undersized is a real stretch. If he was on 10mm/p.a. I'd be on-board, but as it is I think he could take up a lot of flexibility on our roster for limited incremental value over a cheaper option. Is he better than Dedmon? Yes, I think he is. But is he 15mm better than him? Surely Dedmon + a 15mm player > Biyombo. You could make a similar argument to Dedmon with KoQ and many others.

Stephen Zimmerman - I like what I've seen so far. A long way from being NBA-ready, but has talent and tore up the D-league. Give him a steak every meal and hope he turns into a rotational player. Which is good enough for a low pick

Arinze Onuaku - seems like a good guy to have around. Will work hard, but will barely see the pine and that's fine with me.

Trades - Everyone obviously wants the blockbuster deal, but we need some realism. Dragic and Gay seem attainable and both would add to what we have and cover the 1 and 3, which are our weakest positions. Apart form Vooch, we struggle to have anyone who regular draws double teams, so the only way we can get a clear shot is off screens. Either of these guys could help with that. I'd also look at someone like Monta Ellis for similar reasons. Although that would mean sliding Evan to the 3 spot and could leave us defensively weak in backcourt.

Free Agent targets - I think if we are around 8th seed (unlikely but possible) we have to swing for the fences as described before. If this doesn't work, rather than overpaying for mediocrity (Biyombo) I would rather either use payroll on 1y deals to have another run if we believe we're developing (Hezonja, Gordon, EP all showing signs of improvement) or get someone who is not a star.