It seems fairly evident that Justise Winslow has emerged as the fan favorite draftee to be picked by the Magic with the 5th overall selection. Winslow has seen his stock rise, maybe more so than any other player, since his stellar performance in the NCAA tournament. His athleticism, defense, and ability to get to (and finish in) the paint are undeniable; yet, I am still not convinced the best scenario for the Magic is selecting him at number 5. Is he really better than Stanley Johnson or are we just seeing the hype from college basketball fans that just watch the NCAA Tournament? Why are very few people talking about his non-existent mid range game? Did his game improve greatly by the season's end or did Coach K have more to do with that than people realize?
There is no doubt that many fans do not watch college basketball till the craze that is March Madness starts. Every year we see players get talked about a little more and jump up the boards if they perform well on the big stage and, to a degree, rightly so. Winslow was already a lottery prospect early in the season; however, most mock drafts and scouts had him behind Johnson for most of the year. It wasn't until later in the year and, for many, not until the tourney that he found himself slotted in front of all the other SF prospects on most mocks and by many scouts. Did he really earn that jump or does Coach K need a bit more of credit?
I think the answer is a little bit of both. However, I have not seen anyone on OPP credit Coach K (maybe I missed it). Jonathan Tjarks, of RealGM, wrote a great article that illuminates a significant reason why Winslow saw greater success towards season end. Here is an excerpt:
...Mike Krzyzewski made a proactive line-up switch, inserting Matt Jones into the starting line-up for Amile Jefferson and going 4-out around Okafor.
The move replaced a 6’9 power forward who couldn’t shoot 3’s or guard smaller perimeter players (Jefferson) with a 6’5 3-and-D wing (Jones). All of a sudden, Okafor, Justice Winslow and Tyus Jones were playing in a lot more space on offense. Just as important, it moved Winslow from a position as a big SF to a small PF, allowing him to take advantage of his edge in speed against bigger and slower frontcourt players, none of whom could punish Winslow for his lack of size on the other end of the floor. You can imagine the move as an NCAA version of Steve Kerr taking David Lee out of the starting line-up for Draymond Green.
Coach K's impact on Winslow's rise should be talked about more and so should whether or not we can expect the same numbers when he plays in the NBA. When he gets to the NBA, he will not be able to exploit the mismatches he had against the 4s in college because he will be a defensive liability if he is tasked to guard 4s like Randolph or Griffin. Even lesser names (in the East) like West, Millsap, and Sullinger will give him problems in the post. Now, I know he may not be asked to play or guard the 4 much. However, I do wonder whether his great numbers of finishing and getting to the rim were inflated by Coach K's floor spacing strategy and his athletic dominance over college PFs (and that will certainly be harder to find in the NBA). One might argue that he could be like Draymond Green, however Draymond has a significant wingspan advantage and size advantage. He was 15 lbs heavier and 1 inch taller coming out of college. So if Coach K had a significant impact on Winslow's stock, did Coach Miller have a similar impact on Johnson's stock?
Simply put, yes. This time, however, the stock went down. Tjarks goes on to touch on this topic as well:
Johnson never got the opportunity to play 1-on-1 too much at Arizona. Sean Miller’s team did a terrible job of spreading the floor all season...Rather than playing as a small-ball 4 next to three three-point shooters like Winslow, Johnson played as a big SF next to four guys whom defenses could leave open. It was no wonder that he struggled to finish around the basket - there were always multiple defenders coming at him everytime he drove. Johnson was their best three-point shooter, but as an NCAA coach, you don’t want your 6’7 240 future lottery pick spending most of his time 25+ feet from the basket.
It's not shocking that Miller failed to get Johnson in better situations to maximize his strengths; after all, this is the same coach that allowed Gordon to go an entire season shooting FTs with one of the worst forms I have ever seen. The bottom line is that Johnson's paint numbers could be closer to Winslow's if he had the same spacing advantages. I guess we will never know, but we should take this into account when comparing the two draftees. There is more evidence out there that I think adds to Johnson's ability to be a better finisher at the rim.
Johnson recently gave an interview with DraftExpress where he specifically addresses a few concerns scouts have expressed with his finishing abilities at the rim. Johnson has been working with the sports science experts at P3 to improve a variety of things. One thing he mentions in the interview are his expectations, and P3s experts, when it comes to his vertical ability. About a 1:15 he discusses why he thinks he can improve his vertical and by how much (about 6 to 7 inches). A little bit after that, he gives an intelligent answer as to why he saw a regression in his ability to finish at the rim from his high school days. He seems like he knows what changes need to be made (reminds me of Gordon knowing what changes needed to be made with his shooting form) and there is no doubt that his size/frame are superior to that of Winslow. If any SF in this draft can also play the 4 in a small ball lineup, it is Johnson. You still may not be convinced, so let's look at the shot charts.
One of the greatest concerns I have with Justise Winslow is his near non-existent mid-range game in college. Winslow very well may be able to shoot a mid-range jump shot just fine or average; however, he gave you no evidence during college to believe that. Look at his shot chart. Almost 60% of his shots were at the rim where he finished at an impressive 59.1% rate. However, we already discussed why those numbers might be a bit inflated. His 3 point percentages were impressive and markedly better than Johnson's; but, both shot above league average. Let's look at Johnson's shot chart now.
Johnson's chart shows a wider variety to his offense game. He added mid-range shots and floaters more so than Winslow. He at least showed signs that he can get those shots off at a higher percentage. Here is a little stat snippet from Jacob Rude at Fandsided:
80.5% of his three-pointers this year have been assisted, meaning he’s finding open spots on the floor to spot up. However, he has a very solid mid-range game as well, where he shoots 44.2% and 41% of his shots come from there. Compare that to someone like Winslow, who shoots just 19.2% of his shots from mid-range and shoots 40% on them.
Furthermore, a stat that I think nudges me farther over to the Johnson side is his clear superiority when it comes to getting to the stripe and making his FTs. He averaged 2 more FTs per 100 possessions than Winslow and shot a .742 FT% to his counterpart's .641 FT%. Johnson has the athleticism and size to live at the line. He may not have the quickness of Winslow or as polished a Euro-step, but he does get there more and make them at a significantly higher percentage. Not to mention, his size should give him the ability to absorb contact better and his post game is further along than Winslow's. It should be noted, Orlando was last in the league in FTAs per game, so Johnson could be a much welcomed sight on that front.
When it comes to the 3 top SFs in this draft, scouts and fans alike might be splitting hairs on these prospects. All of them might be above average 2 way players and each will have strengths over the others. As of now, with seeing very little of Hezonja and without the pre-draft workout results/news, I am a bit more sold on Johnson. I concede Hezonja might be the best offensive player and that Winslow is the superior scorer at the rim with, potentially, an unmatched motor. My mind is certainly open to change and reasonable arguments for either SF over Johnson.
Lastly, I want to consider a draft day scenario that might be the most beneficial outcome for Orlando. I think everyone would agree that Okafor and KAT are going to be the top 2 selections. Also, I think Russell is the most likely selection by Philly at 3. Russell has long been linked to Philadelphia and his game pairs far better with Embid, than say Mudiay, because he is an elite shooter from behind the arc. So assuming they are the top 3 selections, who will NY take? Most slot Mudiay here; however, I am not convinced.
Mudiay might very well be the BPA at 4, but his game does not fit the triangle offense. The triangle offense works best with a PG that can shoot. That is not Mudiay's forte. I'm not going to get into detail as to why he does not fit the system, as this is not a Knicks blog (those articles are easy to find). So if NY passes on Mudiay, it seems more than likely they select Winslow or trade back. Winslow is the slasher, shooter, and defensive presence they need on the wing. He fits the offense and would allow Melo to move back to the 4 where he is most efficient. However, they might trade back and target Trey Lyles, as reports suggest. For the sake of my scenario, let's assume they select Winslow. In my opinion, this might be very good for Orlando.
Yes, Orlando might miss out on Winslow and he may very well be their top rated SF after the workouts. The Magic certainly don't need Mudiay; however, this could open up quite a number of trade options and there is one that I find intriguing and realistic. Denver is a team on the brink of an explosion. Ty Lawson has expressed his interest in a trade and hasn't tried to hide it. His run in Denver seems to be over and the team needs to look at rebuilding. Faried's contract is fairly unattractive and they have Danilo's contract expiring next season. I would propose the idea that Denver might be willing to part with Danilo and the 7th for the opportunity to draft Mudiay. Drafting Mudiay would allow them to move Lawson and have the PG of the future in place. Mudiay is a 2 way player with size, which would be a breath of fresh air after Lawson. They also might be concerned that Sacramento likes Mudiay and they want to ensure they get him. If Harris goes, Danilo could certainly replace his offense (he did score 47 in a game this year) and is better suited to play the 4 on occasion. At 7, the Magic will most likely still have their choice of Hezonja or Johnson as Sacramento seems likely to take WCS. Danilo and Hezonja/Johnson seems far better than Winslow alone. And the Magic get the opportunity to make a better pitch at signing Danilo if he has a healthy breakout season, should they so choose. Is this likely? Maybe not, but I think it is more likely than some of the other trade scenarios I have read on various team blogs. I certainly would love to hear reasonable scenarios from others if Mudiay is there at 5.
That is my case for Stanley Johnson. I would love to hear from the Winslow contingent as to why you support him. And please, the more detail and sources the better. And feel free to speculate on scenarios if Mudiay is available when Orlando is on the clock.
