With the Magic's season complete I will take a look at the offseason picture and priorities for our team. I will use VAR (Value Above Replacement) to show suggested value, which is a calculation of wins above replacement level * value over replacement win + league minimum salary. All stats are taken from ESPN and Basketball-Reference.

2014-15 Silver Lining

Draft picks

Own first-round pick (fifth entering lottery)
Chicago second-round pick (51st)

Projected cap space

Likely: $35.6 million

What's returning

Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic is a curious case. He is considered an all-star snub this season, and his production was more than deserving; 45 double-doubles and stat-lines of 19/11/2 on 52/33/75 percentages don't grow on trees. However, his defense left much to be desired, with a lot of our defensive struggles pinned to him, best captured in his -1.8 RPM. Given that our coach was fired mid-season and his coaching schemes in general are highly questionable it is reasonable to show patience with our double-double machine and most consistent offensive weapon. With the extension in place Vucevic is locked in as our center of the future.

Victor Oladipo

Dedmon's elbow to Oladipo's face forced the sophomore guard to miss the teams' entire pre-season and the first 9 games. Before Oladipo even stepped on the court we had logged 6 losses and the gloom that eventually consumed Jacque Vaughn's coaching career was seeping in. While Oladipo didn't single handily salvage the season or save Vaughn's job, he did an admirable job bouncing back from injury and went on to average 20/4/5 post All-Star break. Though his defense sputtered his overall game elevated, maintaining his career trajectory towards stardom.

Elfrid Payton

Payton's story begins with the collective WTF's released around the Amway center after Hennigan passed on "PG of the future" Dante Exum. As the narritive goes this resulted in the Magic getting "fleeced" by "savvy" 76'ers GM Sam Hinkie. His was a traumatic birth, and his summer league play did little to alleviate concerns. Cut to the end of the season: 2 back-to-back triple doubles, 12 double-doubles, and arguably our seasons MVP. Still concerned? He finished 11 assists shy of Penny's franchise rookie record for assists in a season and 4th in ROY voiting. He's taken the "franchise PG" label by the horns and doesn't appear to be letting go any time soon.

Channing Frye

Channing Frye, Hennigan's first big free agent. Frye was a system all-star with the Suns and his floor spacing acumen shown last season was well worth hot pursuit. Sadly, the fit just wasn't there and his value quickly regressed to barely above replacement level. He never found his way out of this funk and it eventually found him on the bench and out of the rotation. He brings a talent we desperately need, spot up shooting, and remains a deadly threat from the perimeter, but whether he can work next to Vucevic is a question that still needs to be answered, and one that likely won't even be asked as he settles into a bench role.

Evan Fournier

Evan Fournier cemented a place in the rotation before his season was derailed by injury, averaging 14/3/3 on 45/40/73 percentages while starting 32 games. With the back court starting spots locked up by Payton and Oladipo, Fournier's starting prospects look slim, but the role of the first wing off the bench is there for the taking.

Aaron Gordon

Gordon's season never really had a chance to get rolling. Playing in only 47 games, starting in 8, the 19 year old 4th overall pick clocks in as slightly below replacement level. NBA worthy, no doubt, but you'd like to get more bang out of your rookie season. Never doubt that Aaron is taking this frustration to the gym this offseason, and with his body right and his mind focused the well rounded defensive force will no doubt blast onto the scene for the 2015-16 season. He'll likely be in contention for a starting spot and at worst he projects to have a place in the 9 man rotation for next season. For the long-haul he is a core piece with franchise forward hopes pinned on his young shoulders.

Maurice Harkless

Harkless fell out of the rotation as a causality of "4th Quarter Willie" mania. Ok, maybe that is a stretch, as Harkless was on the rotation bubble to start the season and just never earned a spot. Be it his regression in 3pt shooting (from 38% to 18%) or his rumored rift with the coaching staff, Harkless' defense never made its way into our rotation on a consistent basis. That this ultimately did come at the expense of us putting up with "4th Quarter Willie" is really only collateral damage. The bottom line for Harkless is this, next season is his last good opportunity to show he is more than a replacement level talent and that he deserves a place in the league as a 3&D specialist.

Andrew Nicholson

The logic for keeping Nicholson around for another season is easy on the surface; cheap rookie contract. However, he has not come close to living up to his 1st round selection and at 26 years old heading into next season it seems that the ship on his NBA career has already set sail. He does have size in his favor, along with an incredible skill set, but with how completely nonathletic he is and his slow to develop 3pt shot running behind schedule his utility and long-term place on the team seem highly questionable. To his credit he did an admirable job in his 3 starts, and for this reason alone I can get on board with another year of him on the team, trying to break down the door to consistent rotation time.

Free agents

Tobias Harris

The gossip is that the Magic attempted to extend Harris alongside ongoing talks with Vucevic but that Harris' camp rejected the offer, rumored to be around $9M a year, choosing instead to let the market determine Harris' value this offseason. Time will tell what merit this strategy has for Harris, but it can be argued that he has positioned himself well among other 2nd tier free agents, and is primed for a big payday. At an "old" 22, Harris has 4 years of NBA experience under his belt already, his production is above average and seemingly very desirable for any team to pursue. The picture is muddied when you look at his impact on scoring margin, as the Magic actually played better with him off the court. In fact, RPM shreds his value, basically indicating that we could have brought in a D-Leager and given his minutes to one of our other front court options and been better off. Whether this is true or not is part of the complicated calculus that Hennigan will have to solve this offseason. All signals are that he is keeping Harris regardless, an asset is an asset after-all, but Harris' place in the long-term picture and his place in our core is still very much up in the air.

Kyle O'Quinn

O'Quinn took a step back in 2014-15, dropping from a PER 16.5 to 14.8. He saw a decline in rebound%, blk%, and while his defense was still stellar it had less shine than the season before. He lost his spot in the rotation to Dedmon and then Nicholson, and by the time the dust from a terrible season settled he found his future with the team in doubt. While he rates above replacement level, and hence valuable to a rotation, he does find himself in a crowded center rotation with the emergence of Dedmon and the return of Nicholson. Ultimately his may be the case of the market valuing him more than we do.

Dewayne Dedmon

Dedmon proved his value to our big man rotation as the season wore on and his MPG inched up. He ended up starting 15 games, always providing great energy and defense. He's done nothing to lose his hold on a rotation spot and will likely be brought back.

Devyn Marble

Marble had little trouble showing his worth as a replacement level player, with obvious promise on the defensive end and a certain fluidity on offense that did not always translate but was apparent. Due to his defense and potential as a 3PT shooter he will remain in contention for a place on the team, if not in the rotation.

Biggest need: Identity

The team settled on a core of Harris, Vucevic and Oladipo going into the 2014-15 season, before injury and inconsistency derailed their effort and left us with very little improvement from a season ago. Shipping out Nelson and Afflalo was an attempt at transitioning the rebuild from asset collection to development by handing over leadership to our young studs. While this transition experienced a hiccup things are still promising, and with the emergence of Payton and another top selection about to be added to the mix the future is still bright, if a bit less clear.

Biggest question: When does talent and production translate to wins?

The focus on a core of Oladipo, Vucevic and Harris saw all three post above average to all-star level production, and yet the wins did not come. This failure to translate ultimately cost Coach Vaughn his job, and it will be up to the next skipper to find the right chemistry.

Hennigan has to decide whether we need an overhaul on top of a new coach or if Operation Organic is still a go with a new coach leading the way. He has positioned us with ample flexibility should the overhaul option tickle his fancy, as he can easily let Harris walk and use cap space to pursue top tier free agents.

Ideal offseason

The Magic select Mario Hezonja after falling 5-8 in the draft and he comes over and earns a spot in our rotation right away with his versatility and 3PT shooting, or the Magic draft Anthony Towns after winning the draft and he wins ROY starting at the 4 for us. Magic trade back Chicago's 2nd rounder for Tom Thibodeau who decides to part ways with Chicago, and he brings a defensive identity that the team is well equipped to adopt and thrive within, transforming us into one of the top ten defenses in the league. Magic match Harris and O'Quinn, if for no other reason than to avoid losing an asset for nothing. In other words, Operation Organic stays on course with an upgrade in coaching and an additional stud rookie to sweeten the pot.