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NBA Draft Lottery 2013: Odds favor Magic in Tuesday's event

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Orlando has a league-high 25 percent chance of winning the top overall pick in the 2013 NBA Draft.

David Stern
David Stern
Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

The NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order in which the 14 teams who did not qualify for the postseason will select in the 2013 NBA Draft. The event is scheduled for Tuesday, May 21st at 8:30 PM Eastern/5:30 PM Pacific. ESPN's crew of Mark Jones, Jay Bilas, and Heather Cox will provide live coverage.

The Orlando Magic finished the 2012/13 season with a 20-62 record, the NBA's worst. As a result, they have the best odds--25 percent--of earning the first overall pick in the NBA Draft; in addition, Orlando can pick no lower than fourth overall.

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Pat Williams, the Magic's Senior Vice President, is scheduled to represent his team at Tuesday's event. Williams was present for each of Orlando's three other lottery wins in 1992, 1993, and 2004.

Below are the odds of earning a top-four selection for each of the league's 14 lottery teams. The rightmost column lists the odds of each team finishing outside the top four.

Team

No. 1

No. 2

No. 3

No. 4

Outside top 4

Orlando Magic

25.00%

21.51%

17.77%

35.73%

0.00%

Charlotte Bobcats

19.90%

18.81%

17.12%

31.86%

12.32%

Cleveland Cavaliers

15.60%

15.74%

15.58%

22.56%

30.52%

Phoenix Suns

11.90%

12.60%

13.30%

9.85%

52.35%

New Orleans Pelicans

8.80%

9.65%

10.68%

0.00%

70.87%

Sacramento Kings

6.30%

7.10%

8.11%

0.00%

78.50%

Detroit Pistons

3.60%

4.16%

4.91%

0.00%

87.32%

Washington Wizards

3.50%

4.05%

4.79%

0.00%

87.66%

Minnesota Timberwolves

1.70%

2.00%

2.41%

0.00%

93.892%

Portland Trail Blazers

1.10%

1.30%

1.58%

0.00%

96.031%

Philadelphia 76ers

0.80%

0.95%

1.15%

0.00%

97.1001%

Toronto Raptors

0.70%

0.83%

1.01%

0.00%

97.46%

Dallas Mavericks

0.60%

0.71%

0.87%

0.00%

97.82%

Utah Jazz

0.50%

0.59%

0.72%

0.00%

98.18%

The last time the team with the best odds of winning the lottery indeed hit the jackpot was in 2004, when the 21-61 Magic scored big. The team would go on to select 18-year-old center prospect Dwight Howard ahead of the more polished Emeka Okafor in June, a decision which paid dividends over Howard's eight-year career in the City Beautiful.

The Pelicans, then known as the Hornets, won the 2012 Draft Lottery, owning just a 13.7 percent chance of doing so. The longest-shot lotto victory in the last five seasons came in 2008, when the Chicago Bulls had just a 1.7 percent chance of hitting paydirt. Just three seasons later, Derrick Rose, the Bulls' selection, earned his first MVP trophy.

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