Hot Hand vs. Regression to the Mean


This isn't entirely basketball specific, but it's an interesting study that talks about the difficulty in predicting the probability of events and examines when and why people switch from the "hot hand" to "gambler's fallacy" theory. Given the uncharacteristic shooting of both the Magic and the Hawks in the first 4 games, it's at least educational and makes you realize the hyperbole and drastic measures called for by posters on this site isn't all that unusual. "In a more general perspective, such biases may induce public opinion and the media to call for dramatic swings in policy in response to highly improbable events."

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