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| 37-43 | 50-30 | |
| Philips Arena | ||
| 7:00 PM | ||
| Sun Sports, NBA TV | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Mike Bibby | PG | Jameer Nelson |
| Joe Johnson | SG | Maurice Evans |
| Josh Smith | SF | Hedo Turkoglu |
| Marvin Williams | PF | Rashard Lewis |
| Al Horford | C | Dwight Howard |
| Season series: | ||
| 10 Dec 2007: Hawks 98, Magic 87 | ||
| 10 Mar 2008: Magic 123, Hawks 112 | ||
| 22 Mar 2008: Hawks 98, Magic 90 | ||
The Magic get a chance to even the score against the Hawks tonight when they meet at the Philips Arena. Atlanta the only team in the East this season that has a winning record against the Magic; the thirteen other teams in the conference have either lost or tied the season-series. In light of that, I decided to take a look at the four factors to see why the Hawks seem to have our number.
| Orlando Magic Four Factors, 2007-2008 NBA Season | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | O Rtg | eFG% | TO Rate | OReb Rt | FT Rt | |
| Season Total | 92 | 113.3 | .535 | 15.6 | 23.2 | 25.9 |
| vs. Hawks | 95 | 105.6 | .527 | 13.7 | 20.6 | 19.1 |
| Diff | +3 | -7.7 | -.008 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -6.8 |
Puzzling. Versus Atlanta, we shoot about the same and commit fewer turnovers, so what accounts for the huge drop in offensive efficiency as compared to our regular-season numbers? Poor free-throw shooting. We are an atrocious 46-of-76 from the stripe against the Hawks this year, or 60.5%. If we shot free throws at our regular-season clip, 72.2%, we would have scored 8 more points against the Hawks.
Through the three games in this series, the Hawks are +8. Ouch.
So yes indeed, our guys need to have their focus at the foul-line tonight if they hope to earn their 51st victory of the season. They'll also have to find some way to stop Joe Johnson, whose scoring output has increased (24, 27, 34) in each game against the Magic. Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans have their work cut out for them.
Speaking of defense, let's take a similar look at the Hawks' numbers to see on what else the Magic should focus on the other end of the floor...
| Atlanta Hawks Four Factors, 2007-2008 NBA Season | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | O Rtg | eFG% | TO Rate | OReb Rt | FT Rt | |
| Season Total | 90 | 108.3 | .483 | 16.5 | 29.8 | 26.3 |
| vs. Magic | 95 | 108.5 | .518 | 13.4 | 21.0 | 20.6 |
| Diff | +5 | +0.2 | +.035 | -3.1 | -8.8 | -5.7 |
There doesn't seem to be much wrong with our team defense against the Hawks this season. We've done a commendable job keeping Atlanta off the offensive glass and off the foul line. Our biggest problem has been defending the three-point line. Closing out the Hawks' shooters, especially Johnson and backcourt-mate Mike Bibby, should be another priority for us. Given our abysmal late-game defense against Minnesota on Friday night, I can't say I believe in our ability to do that.
Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.
UPDATE: Brian Schmitz's preview at the Sentinel says that Stan Van Gundy will "slightly reduce" the minutes of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard tonight. Interesting. Free James Augustine!