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Tough Stretch for the Orlando Magic Ahead - What Can We Expect?

Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty pointed out this formula to his readers earlier this year when trying to project how well the Kings would do on a five-game homestand. In the interest of mere curiosity, I've applied the formula to the Magic's next six games. Here's what it bore out:

Date Opponent Our Chances of Winning
14 Dec @ Charlotte .696
15 Dec vs. Memphis .896
17 Dec @ Dallas .495
19 Dec @ Houston .583
21 Dec vs. Utah .726
23 Dec @ Boston .145

If this prediction holds true, we'll go 4-2 over our next 6 games, which would bring our record to 20-9. Although that'd lower our season win percentage a bit, from .696 to .690, I'm sure that we'd be happy with that, especially given the way we've been playing lately.

That said, I'm not that optimistic. The formula takes into account winning percentages of both teams, as well as a variable that accounts for home-court advantage. What it doesn't take into account is the visiting team's success rate in the home arena. We're awful against the Bobcats when we play them in Charlotte, with just one win in six visits there. Then again, they are the Bobcats, and we did crush them at home earlier this season.

Then again, the game against Dallas is fairly evenly split. We could eke out a victory there like we nearly did last season. And if we are able to beat Charlotte, we could conceivably go 5-1 over the next week-plus, only losing to the Celtics on their home floor, where they are undefeated.

So, that's what the numbers tell us. 4-2 during the next 6 games. What do you think?

I should note that the Magic's lineup may indeed be different by the time this next stretch of games is completed. Stan Van Gundy told reporters the following after last night's loss to Milwaukee:

"I'll give them two more games," he said. "If the intensity, the defensive mentality doesn't change, we will have to make some changes. Some guys have just gotten too comfortable in the lineup. Things came so easily for us in the first 20 games, and we haven't responded to the changes people have made against us."

Sounds like Jameer Nelson's starting job is in jeopardy. Keith Bogans' too, although he had scored in double-figures in four straight games before last night. Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, come on down...?


How do you think the Magic will fare over their next 6 games?

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