Eastern Conference Semifinals
	@
Pistons Lead Series, 3-1
The Palace of Auburn Hills
7:00 PM
TNT
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Chauncey Billups
Maurice Evans	SG	Richard Hamilton
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Tayshaun Prince
Rashard Lewis	PF	Jason Maxiell
Dwight Howard	C	Rasheed Wallace
Series Central

Let's get this bit of news out of the way first: Chris McCoskey reports (thanks, DBB) that Chauncey Billups will play tonight if he feels ready; that is, the Pistons have no plans to hold him out as a precautionary measure. I'd expect that Rodney Stuckey would start once more for Detroit if Billups doesn't feel well enough to play.

The Magic need to win three straight games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals and become the eighth team in NBA history to comeback from a 3-1 deficit. Obviously, that's a tall order, especially against a Pistons team that's surging after its spectacular come-from-behind victory in Orlando on Saturday.

The Pistons had one three-game losing streak this season: from January 18th to January 21st, they dropped consecutive games to the Sacramento Kings, to the Chicago Bulls, and to the Magic. In each of those losses, the Pistons shot an effective field goal percentage well below their average. But the real reason the Pistons lost those games was their poor defense, specifically their tendency to foul. The Bulls and Magic shot 36 and 37 free throws, respectively, in those games, in which the Pistons were the visitors. Hmmm.

And in those losses the Kings and the Bulls, the Pistons allowed their opponent's bench to erupt. Kevin Martin, Mike Bibby, and Ron Artest combined for 58 of Sacramento's 100 points; similarly, Ben Gordon contributed 33 off Chicago's pine. Since the Magic's reserves provide little in the way of offense, the Magic's better bet is to drive aggressively to the basket and hope to get fouled, then convert on the subsequent free-throws. Defensive free-throw rate was the Pistons' biggest weakness in the regular season, and it showed in their only three-game skid of the year.

Two caveats: three games in the middle of January does not a great sample size make; and the Kings' big bench scorers in that game typically start. But I thought it was worth examining nonetheless.

Tipoff's at 7 on TNT. Our season could officially end at or around 9:30. Think about that one for a second.

Go Magic. Prove Jameer right.

Eastern Conference Semifinals
	@
Pistons Lead Series, 2-1
Amway Arena
5:00 PM
ESPN
Probable starters:
C. Billups???	PG	Jameer Nelson
R. Hamilton	SG	Maurice Evans
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Jason Maxiell	PF	Rashard Lewis
R. Wallace	C	Dwight Howard
Series Central

Following Game Three, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy drew an interesting parallel between the Pistons' situation in this series vs. ours in the last series. We won big in the first game at home, won another close one at home, then got blown out in Game Three on the road. Hopefully we can defend Amway Arena better than the Raptors did in their second, and final, playoff game at Air Canada Centre this season.

Regarding Chauncey Billups: I think he'll play, but that's mere speculation. Here's Tim Povtak of the Orlando Sentinel with the latest update (as of Friday evening, when I'm writing this post):

"It's sore; it's still sore, man," Billups said when asked about his hamstring when he arrived at Amway Arena for practice. "I don't know [if I can play Saturday]. I can't honestly say either way at this point."

There was no noticeable limp when Billups walked, but there was no spring in his step, either, offering little insight into his immediate future.

Povtak asserts that the Pistons will be "vulnerable" if Billups doesn't play. I'm not sure I buy that. Even without Billups, the Pistons have Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace. That lineup is more venerable than it is vulnerable. Add the fact that they have a capable rookie (Rodney Stuckey) to take Billups' starting minutes and, well, the Magic have only a slight edge on the Pistons.

It'll be interesting to see how the Pistons defend Rashard Lewis tonight. Lewis exploded in the last outing for 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting (33 points on 15 shots... I'm still drooling) and routinely had open looks. A. Sherrod Blakely of MLive.com reports (via DBB) that Amir Johnson might get the call against Lewis tonight. Johnson, in his third season after being drafted from Westchester High School, is quick; a good leaper; and fresh, averaging only 12 minutes a game this season. He's the sort of guy who can give Lewis fits on the perimeter. If/when Johnson defends Lewis, Rashard should look to post him up. Lewis' post game is underrated, probably because so many of his shots are three-pointers. But he has the skill, strength, and footwork to befuddle the younger Johnson.

It'll also be interesting to see if the Pistons can get any production from Jason Maxiell and Antonio McDyess. Up until Wednesday night, the Pistons were undefeated this postseason in Maxiell's starts. That perfect mark changed because he was a non-factor offensively (0 points?! Not even one monster dunk?!) and had more trouble containing Dwight Howard than usual. McDyess also laid an egg. If either of them can bounce back, the Pistons stand a good chance of winning. If not, they're still a damn good team. But so are we.

Please don't hurt us, Rasheed.

Tipoff's at 5 PM on ESPN. The underrated Dan Schulman/Doris Burke broadcast team has the call, according to The Sporting Blog.

Eastern Conference Semifinals
	@
Pistons Lead Series, 2-0
Amway Arena
8:00 PM
TNT
Probable starters:
C. Billups	PG	Jameer Nelson
R. Hamilton	SG	Maurice Evans
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Jason Maxiell	PF	Rashard Lewis
R. Wallace	C	Dwight Howard
Series Central

The only thing the Pistons have done so far in this series -- apart from win, yes -- is defend their home floor. If the Magic can do the same thing tonight and Saturday night, the series heads back to Detroit for Game Five with the teams even. Let's not worry about the fact that, in losing the first two games of the series on the road, the Magic face long odds to advance. Right now, all they can worry about, and all we can worry about, is winning tonight. Forget about the blowout in Game One. Forget about the clock malfunction in Game Two. Forget about the team plane needing to make a precautionary landing in Cincinnati after Game Two.

Just. Win. Tonight.

How? Hitting threes and free-throws would be a start. In their two wins against the Pistons this year, the Magic shot 21-of-37 (56.8%) from three-point range and 46-of-60 (76.7%) from the foul line. In their four losses, they're 29-of-86 (33.7%) from three-point range and 75-of-115 (65.2%!) from the foul line. Combined, that's a 16-point differential per game, and their losses have come by an average of 14 points.

A loss tonight and we're done. A win tonight and this series will go the distance. The Magic haven't given any indication that they intend to give up. And that's all we can ask for: their best effort.

And now, for your consumption, some Four Factors-y goodness for both teams. The splits show puzzling results. The Magic fare better against the Pistons when they rebound poorly? Um, what?

Eastern Conference Semifinals
	@
Pistons Lead Series, 1-0
The Palace of Auburn Hills
7:00 PM
TNT
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Chauncey Billups
Maurice Evans	SG	Richard Hamilton
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Tayshaun Prince
Rashard Lewis	PF	Jason Maxiell
Dwight Howard	C	Rasheed Wallace
Series Central

If a playoff series doesn't really start until a home team loses a game, then I hope this Eastern Conference Semifinals series gets rolling tonight. The Magic got their hats handed to them in Game One, shooting 33% from the field in the second half en route to a 19-point defeat.

After the game, Matt Watson (and other members of the media) saw Rasheed Wallace and Dwight Howard engage in what he called "one of those handshake/man-hug/chest-bump thing that guys do." Wallace later explained to reporters that he gave Dwight some advice. Whatever it was, Dwight needed it: we stand no chance of winning this series if he continues to go for 12 points and 8 boards, as he did in Game One. Like I told Ryan in a HoopsAddict podcast (give it a listen), Dwight is our X-Factor in this series. He has to make the Pistons pay for single-covering him.

The game tonight is nationally televised on TNT, but it's still a 7:00 PM start. Post your pre-, in-, and post-game comments here.

Go Magic.

Eastern Conference Semifinals
	@
Series Tied, 0-0
The Palace of Auburn Hills
7:30 PM
TNT
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Chauncey Billups
Maurice Evans	SG	Richard Hamilton
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Tayshaun Prince
Rashard Lewis	PF	Jason Maxiell
Dwight Howard	C	Rasheed Wallace
Series Central

The word most often associated with the Magic in this series -- and in the latter half of the season, come to think of it -- is "respect." We can go a long way toward earning some tonight in our first game with the vaunted Detroit Pistons. A victory in the Palace, especially one by a wide margin, would impress even the most unabashed of Magic homers.

The odds are decidedly not in our favor, though. After going down 2-1 to the Philadelphia 76ers in the quarterfinals, the Pistons woke up and won the next 3 games by a combined 49 points. Moreover, Tayshaun Prince shut down Andre Iguodala, the 76ers' best scorer, and made him a non-factor. If Hedo Turkoglu is able to match his normal production, I'll be very pleased.

The Pistons' other plan is to double-team Dwight Howard, says Nothing But Net. Fair enough, but double-teamind Dwight (obviously) will leave somebody open. The starting backcourt of Jameer Nelson and Maurice Evans will have to hit its three-pointers to make the Pistons think twice about that strategy. Keith Bogans will have to come up big off the bench in that respect. Odd as it may sound, we can probably count on KeBo coming up big in this series. He shot 12-of-14 from long-range against Detroit this season. That's not a fluke, and any scoring we can get from our seventh man is a plus.

Let's do it, fellas. Tonight's tip is at 7:30 on TNT. Bookmark 3QC's Series Central for all your Magic/Pistons second-round coverage.

Eastern Conference Playoffs, Round One
	@
Magic Lead First-Round Series, 3-1
Amway Arena
7:30 PM
NBA TV, Sun Sports
Probable starters:
T.J. Ford	PG	Jameer Nelson
Anthony Parker	SG	Maurice Evans
Jamario Moon	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Chris Bosh	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrea Bargnani	C	Dwight Howard
Series Central

The Magic hope to ride the momentum they built up in the second half of Saturday's inspired 106-94 victory over the Raptors to a win at home today, which would allow them to advance to the second round for the first time since 1996. It won't be easy.

The two keys to a Magic victory are as follows:

1. Dwight Howard must stay active defensively. All 16 (!) of his blocked shots in this series have come in the Magic's 3 victories. We were 7-1 in the regular season when Dwight had 5 blocks or more, a figure that's ballooned to 9-1 in the playoffs. When he's asserting himself on the defensive end, we're damn tough to beat.
2. Jameer Nelson must "get his" offensively while Keyon Dooling must prevent T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon from "getting theirs". In the Raptors' Game Three win, Ford and Calderon eviscerated us to the tune of 39 points, 12 rebounds, and 16 assists. Getting them out of their comfort zones will force Chris Bosh and a tertiary player (Jason Kapono? Anthony Parker? Carlos Delfino?) to carry the Raptors' load offensively.

Tip's at 7:30 on NBA TV nationally and Sun Sports locally. Let's make it a loud crowd in the Amway Arena tonight. But, more importantly, let's get a victory and become the first team in the league to officially advance to the second round of the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Playoffs, Round One
	@
Magic Lead First-Round Series, 2-1
Air Canada Centre
3:00 PM
TNT
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	T.J. Ford
Maurice Evans	SG	Anthony Parker
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Jamario Moon
Rashard Lewis	PF	Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard	C	Andrea Bargnani
Series Central

The Magic's point total has decreased in each game in this series, and the Raptors' has increased. Let's buck the trend today and leave Canada with a 3-1 series lead, shall we?

Eastern Conference Playoffs, Round One
	@
Magic Lead First-Round Series, 2-0
Air Canada Centre
7:30 PM
NBA TV, Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	T.J. Ford
Maurice Evans	SG	Anthony Parker
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Jason Kapono
Rashard Lewis	PF	Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard	C	Andrea Bargnani
Series Central

Sam Mitchell promised changes to the Raptors' lineup. Tonight, we'll see if the 2006/2007 Coach of the Year can outsmart Stan Van Gundy and win a game in this best-of-seven series.

[Note by Ben Q Rock, 04/24/08 11:38 AM EDT ]
: Apparently, Mitchell will keep T.J. Ford in the starting lineup rather than replace him with Jose Calderon, despite the fact that Calderon has outplayed Ford by every possible measure in this series. Dave Feschuk of the Toronto Star (via TrueHoop's First Cup) elaborates:

But perhaps the change that would make the most sense - inserting Jose Calderon as the starting point guard in place of the struggling T.J. Ford - can't and won't be made.

Ford, with his chemistry-killing refusal to be Calderon's backup this spring, has established he won't respond well to it.

Never mind that Ford's poor play at the outset of games has been a big reason why the Magic have carved out 20 and 18-point first-quarter leads in Games 1 and 2, respectively. Never mind that Ford's half-hearted perimeter defence has helped lead to a parade of penetration, that his 12-per-cent field-goal shooting and four Game-2 turnovers have helped dig those big deficits.

Speaking as a general NBA fan, this news troubles me. Calderon is a fantastic player who should have made the All-Star team this year, and I hate that he has to defer to an inferior, prima-donna player with a horrible attitude. But Calderon's loss is the Magic's gain, as they're much better off when Calderon's on the bench and Ford's starting. So, uh, thank you, T.J. Your inflated sense of self-worth may just help us win our first playoff series since 1996.