FanPost

Trading the #5 Pick

With the hiring of Scott Skiles now complete, it seems like the next wave of info/discussion/speculation will turn to the NBA Draft. The Magic currently hold the #5 pick in this year's draft, and most indications are that they will be deciding between the likes of Mario Hezonja, Justice Winslow, Stanley Johnson, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Kristaps Porzingis. However, there is always the option of the Magic trading their high lotto-pick, if the right deal came around.

So...I'm going to toss out a proposed off-season idea that is rooted in using the Magic's #5 pick as the first and main domino of a series of moves.

Unadulterated Assumption: Based on injury timelines, Joel Embiid should be back to normal at this point, meaning that the 76ers organization has seem him practicing/scrimming for a while now. This series of moves assumes that the 76ers have seen enough from Embiid to believe he will either live up to the hype, or at least be a legit NBA center.

Rumored Assumption: Apparently, if Brook Lopez opts out of his contract to become a FA, there is some rumored mutual interest between him and the Bucks.

Standard Assumption: I know this is fantasy trading, but I try my best to make realistic trade scenarios that both teams might be interested in making. Nothing is perfect, but if the framework is solid, the "edges" of the deal generally can be fudged to make it work. I always aim for a solid, fair, and realistic framework.

Let's get to the moves!

Step 1: Trading the #5 Pick...

76ers Get: 2015 Magic 1st Round Pick (#5) + Channing Frye

Magic Get: Nerlens Noel + 76ers 2nd Round Pick (#37)

The 76ers (as the assumption above indicates) have a top-pick Center in Joel Embiid waiting to start the season. Right now Noel's stock is not only high, but a bit expendable. With the down-low offense and paint protecting Center that Embiid projects to be, pairing him up with the floor spacing Frye is a great fit on both ends. The 76ers desperately need shooting, and this provides it for them. In addition, they now hold the #3 & #5 spot in this year's lotto. They most likely nab Russell to be their starting PG, and then have a host of options for the #5 pick...such as Mario Hejonza to bolster the guard spots, Winslow/Johnson to fill the wing, or Porzingis to think long term. I'd also consider throwing in one of Dedmon or KOQ for an additional 2nd rounder to grease the wheels if the 76ers worried about depth at their Center spot.

The Magic land Noel, who had a great rookie year last season. Despite the lost year to injury, Noel certainly looks on track to being a monster defender and paint protectors, while even showing some minor flashes on offense. The Magic give up a higher pick & a legit starter (Frye had a bad year, but he's a better player than he was this past season) to get him...but it's worth it for someone who looks this promising in the modern NBA model. He's a potential future DPOY at the most important defensive position and still young enough to grow quite a bit. With the 2nd Round pick, there are some interesting options, but no one stands out so I won't presume to name someone here.

Step 2: What about Vucevic?

Bucks Get: Nikola Vucevic

Magic Get: Sign & Trade deal w/ Khris Middleton

If the Bucks (as the assumption above indicates) are interested in an Offensive-Minded Center like Brook Lopez, then taking a younger Offensive-Minded Center, nightly double-double machine, with no major injury baggage seems like something they would also be interested in. Vucevic looks like he will continue to grow with the young Bucks core, and with Jabari Parker coming back next season, the loss of Middleton would be negated somewhat.

The Magic give up a valuable player, and they say never to trade Big for Small. However, in this case, Middleton is too good a fit. He is shooting 40%+ from 3, and the Magic need spacing. He is a long and willing defender on the wing, and the Magic want to make defense their hallmark (just ask Skiles). He has good BBIQ and a high motor, which the Magic both need and admire respectively. Middleton is the gadget-glue-guy that could help pull everything together.

Step 3: Bulk up Tobias

I still firmly believe that Tobias Harris is a better fit as a small-ball PF than as a SF in the NBA. He's stronger than he looks for his size and can handle the ball like a SF, but he shoots a little worse and plays in the post a bit more than you'd like from a SF in terms of spacing. He's also not quite fast enough to guard quicker SFs.

But fear not! Instead of having him run around as the SF, the Magic now happen to have a starting spot available at the PF position. Harris shot 36.4%3PT last season, which is certainly good enough for what we would consider a "stretch-4" on offense. He could certainly handle opposing stretch-4s on the defensive end (who now don't have a speed advantage like SFs may) and the bigger PFs in the league would have Noel to fear backing up Harris in the post.

So, you re-sign Harris and have him spend his summer focusing on trying to be as good as PF Melo on offense and PF Draymond Green on defense. He likely won't reach those heights, but if he's Melo-lite on offense and Green-lite on defense, that's still a darn effective basketball player to have under contract. Even moreso after the cap explodes.

That's it! With those moves, the Magic are set for the 2015-16 season.

Depth Chart:

PG: Elfrid Payton

SG: Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier

SF: Khris Middleton, Maurice Harkless

PF: Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon

Cn: Nerlens Noel, KOQ/Dedmon

Positives:

That unit is just flat out mean defensively. Institiuting an aggressive switching defense the likes of which we have seen with the Warriors and the Bucks would work wonderfully here. Everyone in the starting lineup is a good-to-elite athlete, there's a decent amount of length and strength, and you have the rim-protecting Noel as the last line of defense. The reserve unit has more of the same. With Skiles at the helm, I'm not sure anyone would be surprised to see that roster land in the top-10, or even the top-5 defensively...after years in the defensive basement of the NBA, this would be a huge step forward.

Offensively, there's a surprising amount of spacing due to Harris now taking his mid-to-high 30's shooting to the PF spot and the 40%+ coming from Middleton at the SF position. If Oladipo can get his 3PT shot up to reasonable levels for a SG, that's some great floor spacing for Payton/Noel PnR goodness. It's true they lost Vucevic's offense, but the spacing added by Middleton, the better match-ups for Harris at the 4, and internal growth of Payton/Oladipo/Harris/Gordon, I think it's reasonable to see this roster being as good as the one we saw last season. With good ball movement and a lack of time-sucking post-ups, it could work. It might even be a bit better.

Drastically better defense with about as good or slightly better on offense. It's not screaming Championship right away, but it's still a very big Net Rating jump and a fantastic foundation to build on. If the Magic get lucky and either Oladipo or Harris "break out" offensively, things could get really fun, really quickly.

Risks:

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention some of the potential risks here. It's not a perfect set up for the Magic and they are giving up a lot in these deals, so it's worth it to take a moment see what might go wrong.

First off, DEFENSIVE Rebounding. Despite the drastic increase in defense we would see from that group, both Noel & Harris have had issues on the defensive glass. I believe Harris' woes on the defensive glass aren't as bad as they seem, as he pulled down 6.4 and 6.5 Drbs per36 when he was primarily playing at the PF spot. That's not elite, but that's manageable for a starting PF (for reference: Ibaka averages 6.3 Drbs per36 and Vucevic career average is 8.5). Noel hauled in a similar number, getting 6.6 Drbs per36, which just isn't going to cut it as a starting Center. Luckily, he's young and still adding bulk, so there's a chance it gets a bit better. Also, Middleton, Oladipo, and Payton are all above-average rebounders for their position. Basically, the Magic would be heavily depending on TEAM rebounding on the defensive glass. This can work, but it would be worth paying attention to.

Secondly, it's a risk to move Vucevic & Frye, two of the more offensive-minded and established players on the roster. It's true that I think the overall team-fit would be just as good or slightly better, but it's entirely possible I'm wrong and the team gets worse on offense. The Magic were hardly setting the court ablaze before, so maybe the risk is worth it, but move back when you're already so bad is obviously not good.

Third, the Contracts. Middleton & Harris will cost a pretty penny. Fournier will be a FA after the 2015-16 season, and in addition you'll have Oladipo/Noel & Payton/Gordon all hitting their contract years together. The Magic will have team control over everyone, but that could get expensive quickly. If the Magic are doing well, I don't think it's a big deal since we've seen the Magic are willing to spend into the luxury tax, but I don't want to pretend it might not become an issue.

Misc:

Obviously there is still the issue of a backup PG, and 3rd stringers for injury protection. I like the idea of nabbing some veterans for this, as the team is still pretty young. Some stability on the court and some veteran leadership off is good to have. I don't know who to go after for those roles, but there are numerous guys on the market that can do it. The backup PG is obviously the most important, but the Magic should still have cap space (or things like the MLE/mini-MLE depending on contracts) to nab someone who can handle the time behind Payton.

Ok. So that's my idea.

[Update] - I'd like to say that while I'm interested in your opinions and debating the merits of the idea above...I'd also love to discuss what YOU might do, if you were to trade the #5 pick (and any subsequent trades). I know we talk a lot about who to draft with it, but let's play with the options if the Magic were to look to trade it away.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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