FanPost

2014-15 Midterm Progress Report: Fournier, Oladipo, Harris, and Vucevic

This is the last in a series of four Midterm Progress Reports I will be posting which analyzes, assesses, and critiques Orlando's 1st half of the 2014-15 NBA season.

In the comments section below, please feel free to agree or disagree with any of my assessments. Enjoy!

Evan Fournier (38 GP), Grade: C+

MPG

PPG

REB

AST

TO

FG%

3P%

TS%

PER

31

13.6

2.8

2.2

1.6

42

37

53

11.9

It came as a shock to many Magic fans that Evan Fournier was the player acquired in a draft-day deal that sent out veteran Arron Afflalo to Denver. I think Fournier at the time was relatively unknown around these parts. I remember having to look up highlights and game action of Fournier myself, so I could get a better feel for the type of player Orlando was receiving. I was intrigued by his age, his affordable contract, and the fact that he was controllable for two seasons (essentially enough time for the Magic to decide what they want to do with him moving forward).

Evan began the season in the starting lineup while Victor Oladipo was sidelined with his facial fracture. Fournier quickly became a player of fan's admiration. Fournier eclipsed 20 points four times in the first nine games of '14-15; he shot (19-37) 51% from downtown. Fournier stayed in the starting lineup after Oladipo returned in Mid-November, but I noticed a significant change in his offensive approach. We all knew his blistering shooting start to the season was unsustainable, but it became clear to me that Victor and Evan struggled to share the basketball in the half-court and play alongside one another. This may have been due to the fact that Oladipo was primarily handling the ball. Fournier just didn't have the same aggressiveness alongside Victor; he seemed to lack that assertiveness he showed early on (against Brooklyn, Toronto, New York). Fournier was removed from the starting lineup and inserted into a 6th man role in late December. Since then, Fournier has really struggled with his shot and has failed to score more than 16 points in a single game. His monthly PPG averages have dropped from 15 (NOV) to 12 (DEC), and now 11.5 (JAN, small sample size).

I do believe that moving Fournier to a reserve role was the correct move. Statistically, Evan is the worst man-to-man defender on the roster. His DRtg, 111 per 100 possessions, ranks last on the team. Defending reserve players on other rosters (rather than Wade, Beal, Ross, Butler, Korver, etc.) will be more beneficial for Evan (and this team) moving forward.

Offensively, Fournier ranks 31st out of qualified NBA SG's in TS% (53%), 42nd in PER (11.9), and 30th amongst SG's in Estimated Wins above Replacement (0.9). This places Fournier in the company of Jodie Meeks, Evan Turner, Dion Waiters, Tim Hardaway Jr., and O.J. Mayo.

I think Fournier still has some work to do to prove to the Magic he is worthy of a second contract in the Summer of 2016. The good thing is Evan is only 22, and still has time and room to grow as a professional. At this point of his career, I feel he's a fringe starter/1st guard off the bench. If he solidifies his role with Orlando, I think Fournier can be a solid offensive presence off the bench for years to come.

Best Game of 1st Half: When I think of Fournier at his best, I immediately think back to his game in the Garden. Man was he good, so fun to watch. Fournier got us a win that night.

11/12 @ New York - 28 PTS, 4 STL (8-14 FG, 2-4 3PT, 10 FTM)

Victor Oladipo (32 GP), Grade: B+

MPG

PPG

REB

AST

TO

STL

FG%

3P%

TS%

PER

33

15.6

3.7

3.8

2.7

1.6

45

38

54

15.4

Oladipo experienced a nightmarish beginning to his sophomore NBA season. The second-year guard suffered through a knee injury during training camp, and then instantaneously fractured facial bones upon his return to preseason practice. Oladipo finally debuted in mid-November at home against Milwaukee, 10 games into the 2014-15 season. Victor was very up and down for about a month, posting very strong production and efficiency lines (@Cleveland, @Golden St, @ Utah, @ Atlanta), and then looking helpless and beyond lost at other times (vs. LAC, vs. GS, @Boston, vs. Utah). For about three weeks now, coincidentally since Elfrid Payton has moved into the starting backcourt, Victor has been very solid.

Oladipo has improved his shooting percentages across the board compared to this rookie season (FG% from 41 to 45, 3P% from 32 to 38, TS% from 51 to 54). His overall offensive rating (101 per 100 possessions, compared to 94 in 2013-14) has also vastly improved. One could argue that Victor has simply improved from a completely unacceptable level of shooting to just an average level, but improvement is still improvement to his credit. I would still like to see Victor finish at a higher percentage at the rim (up from 55% to 58% this season).

I think we are all in agreeance that Victor is best suited to play the SG position. However, Coach Vaughn (and perhaps Rob Hennigan to a lesser extent) is the only person whose opinion matters at the moment on this subject. Player positions have been fluid at times under this new regime, and JV has said countless times over again how much he likes the ball in Victor's hands. As Elfrid Payton continues to develop, and as the rest of this roster begins to take shape, I think we will ultimately start to see Victor play less and less PG. He is not Russell Westbrook. He's not Dwayne Wade. He is Victor Oladipo, and Victor Oladipo does happen to be a pretty decent player.

Not a perennial all-star. Probably not even a two or three time All-Star (I won't say never a single appearance, he's only 22 years old, even Chris Kaman made it once...). But I do believe he can be a very solid third or fourth starter on a good team. Victor ranks in the top ten out of qualified SG's in the Eastern Conference when it comes to TS% (8th), PER (6th), and Estimated Wins above Replacement (5th). This places Oladipo in the company of Dwayne Wade (55% TS%), Kyle Korver (PER of 15.8), and Tony Wroten (PER of 14.9 & EWA of 2.0).

Best Game of the 1st Half - You don't have to look back into the season too far....Coincidentally, Victor's career high of 35 points also came against the Bulls last season!

1/12 @ Chicago - 33 PTS 2 REB 2 AST (11-17 FG, 3-4 3PT, 8-10 FT)

Tobias Harris (37 GP), Grade: A-

MPG

PPG

REB

AST

TO

STL

FG%

3P%

TS%

PER

35

18

6.9

2.0

1.9

1.1

47

40

55

17.4

Harris has gone through a position adjustment of sorts thus far in '14-15. Fans on this site have argued since Tobias arrived what his position moving forward should be with this team. To his credit, an argument can be made for either Forward positions; Harris has (at least on some level offensively) produced effectively at both the "3" and the "4". Harris is versatile and athletic enough to go either way. Tobias is a bit smallish to be an everyday PF, but the definition of the old school PF in the NBA is fading as it is. Tobias may have had the reputation to be a step or two slow on the perimeter defending other SF's, but to his credit, he has done an acceptable job this year keeping other forwards in check (except Lebron a couple times, but come on...).

Harris has had a career year on the offensive end heading into restricted free-agency. Harris, in his fourth season, is posting career highs in scoring (PPG, per/36, per/100), FG%, 3PT%, and TS%. Harris has served as the second scoring option for Orlando this season, and has taken it upon himself to carry the team for stretches at a time on the offensive end. Harris' per/100 advanced statistics show that he has slightly improved his ability to make plays for others, averaging a career high in assists per/100 & AST%. Tobias even managed to add two game winners to his Orlando Magic resume in the 1st half of 2014-15.

When viewed as a SF, Harris provides great rebounding value for the position. Harris ranks behind only Kidd-Gilchrist and Antetokounmpo for qualified SF's in the Eastern Conference when it comes to REBR. Harris ranks 3rd in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified SF's in PER, behind only Lebron and Carmelo (ahead of Pierce, J. Johnson, Deng, etc.). Harris is an afterthought when it comes to being an All-Star selection this season; if an Orlando player gets a nod at all, it will most likely be Nik Vucevic. But Tobias has had that kind of season so far.

I'm a little scared heading into this summer about the kind of attention Tobias is going to receive from other teams around the league. A lot of this is going to have to do with the fact that neither San Antonio nor Chicago will even entertain a thought of letting Leonard or Butler go, so Harris may be the next best option for some teams willing to spend. I stand firm by my opinion that the Magic will match any offer for Tobias. I hear all the arguments from others relating to why overspending to resign/match an offer sheet for Harris is unwise. I just don't see cap flexibility as being a problem for this team anytime soon. The overall cap will be slightly increasing in the future. Harris is just too solid at providing the one thing this teams struggles with the most, scoring the basketball. I just can't be convinced a situation exists where we let Tobias walk and this organization improves because of it. Top tier free-agents are NOT knocking down Orlando's door without a Top 10-20 player already on the roster. In other words, I don't really foresee the Magic saving money by not matching an offer for Tobias, and then in turn eventually spending that money on someone that turns out to be a better player. If this organization has to slightly overpay to keep him, maybe we can all take solace in the fact that we really saved a ton of cash by extending Nik early!

Best Game of the 1st Half: 11/14 vs. Milwaukee - 26 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST (10-18 FG)

Nikola Vucevic (35 GP), Grade: A

MPG

PPG

REB

AST

TO

FG%

TS%

PER

34

18.8

11.1

2.2

2.1

53

55

21.7

Hail Hennigan! Extending Nik Vucevic early in the 2014-15 season may prove to be one of the great moves of his GM career. Despite his defensive deficiencies, Nik has proven the $12 million/year deal that he agreed to is worth it by his offensive production from the Center position alone.

Nik has paced Orlando in the 1st half of 2014-15 in PPG, REB, OWS, WS/48, DRB%, PER, and overall ORtg (not including Aaron Gordon, who has only played 11 games due to injury). Vucevic's defensive eFG% numbers were strong in the beginning of the season, but have regressed as the season has worn on. Protecting the rim, holding position, and general defensive presence are areas Nik can still improve upon. The young man has plenty of time, he's still only 24.

It will be interesting to see if Vucevic earns a reserve slot on the Eastern Conference All-Star team. His play in the 1st half has certainly warranted a selection, it will just be matter of how much the team is stacked already with players from winning teams (that's usually the way it goes). Vucevic ranks 3rd in the NBA out of qualified Centers (behind only Cousins & M. Gasol) in PER and Wins Shares above Replacement (1st in those categories in the East, slightly ahead of Chris Bosh).

The challenge moving forward will be to find the right big man to pair in the frontcourt alongside Nik Vucevic. Because of his own defensive faults, I'm not sure Channing Frye is the solution. A rim protecting PF who can also defend the new age NBA stretch "4" is not easy to find. I will also be anticipating Nik's further development so I can better gauge if he can be a cornerstone franchise #1 guy, or if he eventually settles in as a "2nd or 3rd option on a good team" type player.

Best Game(s) of the 1st Half:

1/10 @ Portland - 34 PTS, 16 REB, 2 AST (15-23 FG)
11/22 vs. Miami - 33 PTS, 17 REB, 1 BLK (12-24 FG)

*****This will be my last progress report of the 2014-15 season. I wish I could continue to write them, I really love talking Magic basketball and I enjoy reading everyone's comments & feedback. I have a very busy Spring, but I will be back talking Draft and Free Agency in May. #BlueAndWhiteIgnite

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

In This FanPost

Teams