The question of how much a shooter can improve, and how much one can reasonably be expected to be improve, is a crucial topic in draft analysis. It's been a topic on the board lately for obvious reasons, with some people alleging the possibility of huge gains, and others pointing out that the average level of improvement from rookie year to career average is closer to 2%. I'm going to be tracking as many draft picks as I can get good stats for, comparing their college stats to the their first-year stats and subsequent results, and trying to get a good baseline for what can be expected.
I guess the reason I'm posting this is, I need to know what variables I should be tracking. So far I've got:
- Height and weight (relative to position?)
- Age and college class upon entering the league
- Draft position (higher-drafted guys have more potential... or do they?)
- Level of college opposition, and college's team shooting efficiency (to correct for small-conference overachievers and guys who had to take a bunch of shots for bad offensive teams)
- Athletic ability (going to be tough to get usable stats for this)
- Separate details for players who enter the league from Europe
What else do you think might influence the question of whether a player is likely to improve after entering the NBA? I'd like to get all the data as I sweep through player records, so now's the time to ask.