Who would OPP pick if we traded down or "bought" another lotto pick?

Hello Magic Fans!

Recently, we developed an OPP Big Board for players that we want to draft. Click here to view Tyler's wrap-up and analysis of our community's picks. Also recently, Ridiculous Upside has conducted an SBNation-wide draft that has provided some intrigue and interesting trades. At the current time, as I am writing this FanPost, the Utah Jazz has just selected the 21st pick. Click here for the latest on Ridiculous Upside's draft.

So, who would we get if we traded down? Who would we pick if we "bought" another lotto pick? To help answer this question, I compiled the results of the Ridiculous Upside draft against our community big board to see who our community would select if we somehow managed to trade down or trade for additional picks. The picks I chose to focus on are the #5, the #9, the #10, and the #13.

From following the OPP, I have been lead to believe that Phoenix (#5) and Minnesota (#9) are exploring trading up in the draft. This would mean that we would relinquish the #2 pick for the rights to their pick and for whatever other fillers they would be able to offer us. Phoenix has been exploring all of its options. One option includes moving up in the draft. If they choose to move up, it may be because they would like to acquire Nerlens Noel or Victor Oladipo, since either a rim defender and a solid wing are two of Phoenix's biggest needs. Ben McLemore has been slipping recently, so they may not need to trade up as he might just fall all the way down to them. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been very vocal in its pursuit of Victor Oladipo, and has been dangling a package centered on Derrick WIlliams and the #9 pick for our any pick #1-4.

Additionally, there are two picks that we might be able to "buy" with a combination of TPE (taking on a contract) and possibly sending an assets (a future pick, cash, and/or a player). The two teams are Portland and Dallas. I have read that Portland is none too impressed with the talent available at #10, and wouldn't mind trading out of this draft. And Dallas is exploring trading away the #13 pick in order to clear as much cap space to pursue Chris Paul and Dwight Howard this summer.

Without further adieu, here are the results using the OPP Big Board vs the SBNation Ridiculous Upside Draft....

Pick 2: Ben McLemore

Pick 5: Victor Oladipo

Pick 9: Michael Carter-Williams

Pick 10: Michael Carter-Williams

Pick 13: Shabazz Muhammad

For giggles, here is who Tyler would pick using his big board vs. the SBNation Ridiculous Upside Draft:

Pick 2: Ben McLemore

Pick 5: Victor Oladipo

Pick 9: Shabazz Muhammad

Pick 10: Shabazz Muhammad

Pick 13: Shabazz Muhammad

Then, because I was bored and because I had gobs of free time now that I have finished one of my summer classes, here is who our community would pick based on 22 Separate Mock Drafts scattered throughout the web. I got this idea from a similar story ran at SLC Dunk, which is the Utah Jazz's SBNation site.

I am going to *try to* insert a picture because the FanPost editor will not allow me to insert a table (or at least I haven't figured that out yet!):

As you can see, here are the following percentages at each pick:

Based on the OPP Big Board.

2nd Pick: Ben McLemore is chosen 100% by the OPP Community in all 22 of the mock drafts because he is available and highest in our big board.

5th Pick: Victor Oladipo: 41%, Trey Burke: 32%, Ben McLemore: 23%, and Nerlens Noel: 5%

9th Pick: CJ McCollum: 50%, Alex Len: 23%, Michael Carter-Williams: 23%, and Trey Burke: 5%

10th Pick: CJ McCollum: 36%, Michael Carter Williams: 27%, Cody Zeller: 18%, Alex Len: 14%, and Trey Burke: 5%

13th Pick: Shabazz Muhammad: 32%, Michael Carter-Williams: 27%, CJ McCollum: 9%, Alex Len: 5%, and Trey Burke: 5%

Based on the Tyler's Big Board.

2nd Pick: Ben McLemore: 64%, Nerlens Noel: 36%

5th Pick: Victor Oladipo: 41%, Ben McLemore: 32%, Otto Porter: 14%, Anthony Bennett: 9%, and Nerlens Noel: 5%

9th Pick: CJ McCollum: 64%, Shabazz Muhammad: 32%, and Trey Burke: 5%

10th Pick: Shabazz Muhammad: 50%, CJ McCollum: 36%, Gorgui Dieng: 9%, and Trey Burke: 5%

13th Pick: Shabazz Muhammad: 59%, Gorgui Dieng: 27%, CJ McCollum: 9%, and Trey Burke: 5%

So, the main takeaway from this is to see a very unscientific probability of who we would pick if we were to acquire the 5th, 9th, 10th, or 13th pick (assuming that our Big Boards were constructed according to the BPA principle, which is a whole other discussion).

Is the 13th pick worth absorbing Shawn Marion's expiring 9.3 million dollar salary AND sending Andrew Nicholson (ie, we would essentially be getting a 32% chance to draft Shabazz Muhammad, or a 27% chance to draft MCW?) I think not. I say pass on this deal unless the highly unlikely scenario (19% chance) where Len, Burke, or McCollum drops to # 13.

Since Portland is looking for an established player (from what I hear, preferably a big) in exchange for the #10 pick, then is sending Andrew Nicholson, BBD, or Harrington their way worth a 36% chance at CJ McCollum, a 27% chance at MCW, or a 18% chance at Zeller? Portland doesn't seem to have any poison contracts, so our TPE will be of little use in this scenario to "buy" their pick. And even if we would be interested, would Portland be interested in the assets that we are offering? Part of me likes this option since a McCollum for Nicholson swap can address a need for both teams and is mostly a lateral trade. I also like Zeller, but he will also contribute to the backlog of bigs we already have.

I think we should pass on trading down to Minnesota, since I do not believe that their package of the #9 pick plus Derrick Williams would be of greater value to our team than who we already would draft at #2. Also, since we are already glutted with bigs, it makes sense to take one player with greater value than two players of lesser value.

And lastly, I do like the prospect of trading down with Phoenix, where we would have a 41% chance at Victor Oladipo, a 32% chance at Trey Burke, and a 23% chance at Ben McLemore, all choices that could greatly help the Magic. We would save roughly one million dollars per year with the 5th pick as opposed to the 2nd pick (negligible, but savings nonetheless), and we might be able to pick up an additional asset from Phoenix along the way.

My personal take is that if Noel doesn't fall to #2, I would like to draft Oladipo. But if the price is right, then trading down with Phoenix would be the smartest thing to do. I might consider ALSO dealing with Portland if McCollum or Zeller is on the table. But with ANY scenario that involves MCW, PASS. The more I read up on that guy, the more he reminds me of Jeryl Sasser...

Any thoughts OPP?

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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