FanPost

Summer of 2013

Star Free Agent Class of 2013


Current Team Age
First-Year Estimate Maximum Deal Rule Used Status
Point guard
Chris Paul LAC 28 Max 19.1 Scale Free
Stephen Curry Golden State 25 Max 13.7 Scale RFA
Brandon Jennings Milwaukee 23 Max 13.7 Scale RFA
Tyreke Evans Sacramento 23 Max 13.7 Scale RFA
Center
Dwight Howard Orlando 27 Max 20.5 105% Free
Andrew Bynum LAL 25 Max 16.9 105% Free
Forwards
Josh Smith Atlanta 27 Max 16.4 Scale Free
Serge Ibaka OKC 23 Interesting 13.7 Scale RFA
David West Indiana 32 Interesting 19.1 Scale Free

Guards
James Harden OKC 23 Max 13.7 Scale RFA
Andre Iguodala Philadelphia 29 Interesting 16.4 Scale ETO
Monta Ellis Milwaukee 27 Interesting 16.4 Scale ETO
Manu Ginobili San Antonio 35 Interesting 19.1 Scale Free

The age of players represent their age on July 1, 2013.

The major complication with this free agency is going to be how the new CBA affects the bids for star players.

2013 Summer Cap Space Measure

Can sign 2+ stars
Can sign 1 Star
Over Cap
HOU 11.9 DAL 41.3 CHI 61.5
CLE 14.6 IND 41.5 UTA 62.7
ATL 18.5 POR 42.2 SAS 62.9
NOH 22.9 OKC 49.8 LAL 70.3
LAC 24.2 DEN 49.9 MEM 70.8
MIN 26.6 GSW 51.9 NYK 76.3
DET 30.1 TOR 53.7 MIA 80.5
CHA 31.9 WAS 53.8 BRK 83.4
ORL 32.2 BOS 57.0
MIL 32.8 SAC 57.2
PHI 37.0
PHO 38.1

The numbers in the table represent the amount of cap space that a team is already committed to for 2013-14 season. This means that if a team does not re-sign any free agents, utilizes all team options to disband player, and all players opt out..... then the bare-bones salary the team would have will be the committed salary. The numbers above are rough but up-to-date numbers. The data even includes Jeremy Lin's contract. But the commitment numbers are bound to increase as free agency spirals to an end. [All numbers in millions] (Special thanks to Wyn Douglas)

  • The smaller the number, the more cap space. The numbers indicate committed salary.
  • The only way for a team to have less than the committed salary is through trade or stretching the remaining players contract.
  • For those dreaming of a Dwight Howard free agency, according to my table the likely destinations can include Los Angeles Clippers and Atlanta Hawks. But Dallas Mavericks, not so much...
  • Example of one of the many problems of the above data: The data table says OKC can add one more star. The problem is OKC currently underpays Serge Ibaka and James Harden. Once they hit free agency in 2013, their values are going to skyrocket which forces OKC to use their cap space on them. So, you can't just look at the table and say Dwight Howard can team up with OKC's big 4.
  • Update: Cap holds are not taken into account. 2+ stars indicate that a team has the capacity to sign two stars [Note: I did NOT say max players] . For a better understanding of the numbers, go to Douglas's data sheet. There are some flaws with his numbers. Examples include Chris Duhon's contract which is partially guaranteed. (This has been corrected in my data table.) Un-fixed examples include O.J. Mayo's contract which is known to be front loaded on his first year but Douglas shows nearly equal distribution between his first and second year.

Amnesty


Players Amnesty-able Most likely cut
Atlanta Al Horford N/A
Boston Avery Bradley*, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo N/A
Charlotte Tyrus Thomas Tyrus Thomas
Chicago Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah Carlos Boozer
Detroit Greg Monroe*, Charlie Villanueva Charlie Villanueva
LA Lakers Steve Blake, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace Metta World Peace or Steve Blake
Memphis Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph N/A
Miami Joel Anthony, Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, LeBron James, Mike Miller, Dwyane Wade Mike Miller or Joel Anthony
Milwaukee Drew Gooden, Larry Sanders* Drew Gooden
OKC Cole Aldrich*, Nick Collison, Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha Kendrick Perkins
Sacramento DeMarcus Cousins*, Francisco Garcia (team option), John Salmons John Salmons
San Antonio Matt Bonner, Tony Parker Matt Bonner
Toronto Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis*, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza Amir Johnson or Linas Kleiza
Utah Derrick Favors*, Gordon Hayward* N/A

  • *The asterisk means teams can pick up the rookie-scale option, and then decide to amnesty that player. As ridiculous as that may seem, New York Knicks did this with Chauncey Billups after they decided to pick up Tyson Chandler.
  • There will be a weeklong window in July 2013 for the remaining teams to use their amnesty option. If a team does not use their amnesty clause by that window then it is gone forever.
  • What happened to Orlando's amnesty? We used it on Gilbert Arenas. I like to think we used it on Otis Smith.

New penalties

Team Salary Luxury Tax (Old CBA) Luxury Tax (New CBA) Repeater Luxury Tax (New CBA)
70.3 0.00 0.00 0.00
75.3 5.00 7.50 12.50
80.3 10.00 16.25 26.25
85.3 15.00 28.75 43.75
90.3 20.00 45.00 65.00
95.3 25.00 63.75 88.75
100.3 30.00 85.00 115.00

  • This table assumes that 70.3 is the "luxury tax line".
  • The "new CBA luxury tax" will be enforced for 2013-14 season and beyond.
  • The repeater rate starts to apply in 2014-15 season. "Repeat offenders" or "repeaters" are teams that are above "luxury tax line" for 3 of 4 seasons prior. However, any seasons prior to the 2011 lockout do not affect in the determination of a "repeater".

Teams above luxury tax line

2011-12 LAL ($12.6), Boston ($7.4), Miami ($6.1), Dallas ($2.7), San Antonio ($2.5), Atlanta ($0.7)
2012-13 LAL ($18.7), Miami ($12.3), Brooklyn ($10.5), New York ($5.7), Memphis ($3.7)
  • The list for the 2012-13 season is the predicted luxury tax-payers. This predicted list will probably be unaffected even after a Dwight Howard trade. The only team unlikely to remain on the predicted list is Memphis. Memphis will likely trade Rudy Gay before the trade deadline.
  • Expect more teams to be added for the 2012-13 season as the 2012 free agency ends.
  • The league officially determines "luxury taxes" on the date of its last regular season game.
Answer to Question: Turbo champion, your question has been answered with an update (check above)

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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