For the past few days we’ve all been attuned to the ongoing talks with Houston and possible end to the Diwghtmare here in Orlando. Before any deal is consummated I thought it might be interesting to look at what each of the trade prospects Houston is offering might be worth, so that we can get an accurate statistical look without speculation based on each individual player.
Please Note: I do not expect us to receive all these pieces (I’m simply commenting on their value from a historical and statistical perspective.
To evaluate the value of NBA draft picks I took a 10 year look at the NBA draft from 1999-2008 (Allowing players the opportunity to mature) and projected forward what the “average” return from each pick is. I ranked each player according to a sliding scale, Please note I also considered the players in their prime.
6- Clear NBA All-Star , Occasional All NBA selection
5- Above Average NBA Starter, Fringe All Star player (think single time all-star selection with solid career)
4- Average NBA Starter or Very Good Bench Player
3- Below Average Starter, Average Bench Player
2- Marginal Bench Player
1- Very Marginal Bench Player (received few minutes contributed very little, the 3rd string center who hacks)
0- Total and complete bust zero return on the draft pick
Asset #1 Toronto First Round Pick
This pick is back half of the draft protected (meaning it cannot be pick 16-30, it also is protected for the top 3 spots in 2013, top 2 spots in 2014, and top spot in 2015. If not used by 2015 it’s abated). So what are the chances it ends up in particular spot (since most are speculating it as top 8 or so – it’s not)
- Chance the Pick is abated and stays in Toronto: 0.0178%
- Chance it’s the #2 pick in 2015: 0.0178%
- Chance it’s the #3 pick (2014 or 2015): 1.52%
- All other chances between 4-15: 8.18% a piece (equally likely anywhere in there)
Mean Position: 9.4 (Meaning , the pick is most probably going to pick 9 or 10)
Whats the value of slots 9 and 10?: If the pick is indeed in spot 9 or 10, we have a 45% chance of selecting an average NBA starter or better and a 25% chance of selecting an above average starter. (3.15 Mean Score)
(List of Players drafted 9 or 10 since 1999, with my rankings per the chart above: Shawn Marion 6, Jason Terry, 5, Joel Przbilla 3, Keyon Dooling 3, Rodney White 1, Joe Johnson 6, Amar’e Stoudemire 5.5, Caron Butler 5, Michael Sweetney 0, Jarvis Hayes 1, Angre Igudala 6, Luke Jackson 0, Ike Diogu 2, Andrew Bynum 6, Patrick O’Bryant 0, Muhamed Sene 0, Joakim Noah 5, Spencer Hawes 1, D.J. Augustin 3, Brook Lopez 4.5 .)
Asset #2 Dallas Top 20 Protected Pick (Protected until 2017, then totally unprotected)
Probability Dallas turns this pick over until 2017, 1.19%,
Number of legitimate NBA Starters Selected between picks 20-30 of the NBA draft during the same time frame as above : 20. Chance at getting a legitimate NBA Starter with this pick 20.13%
Asset #3 Kevin Martin (Expiring Contract)
Could be traded at the trade deadline but has had problems staying healthy, based on his past three seasons he should average : 20.4PPG, 42.1% FG, 34.9% 3PT, 3.3RB, 2.6 AST
Asset #4 Jeremy Lamb SG UCONN(12th Overall Selection NBA Draft)
Average Value of the 12th overall selection from the 10 year period: 1.6.
1 Average or better NBA starter selected in that spot in the last 10 years (Thaddeaus Young)
2 Quality Bench Players
Asset #5 Royce White SF-PF Iowa St. (16th Overall Selection NBA Draft)
Average Value of the 16th overall selection from the 10 year period: 1.8.
1 Average or better NBA Starter selected in that spot in the last years (Ron Artest/ Metta World Piece)
2 Quality Bench Players
Asset #6 Terrence Jones SF Kentcuky. (18th Overall Selection NBA Draft)
Average Value of the 18th overall selection from the 10 year period: 2.5.
1 Average or better NBA Starter selected in that spot in the last years (David West)
4 Quality Bench Players
Asset #7 Chandler Parsons 6’9” 227lbs SF (1st Year Player)
Started 57 of 63 games played, averaged 28.6MPG. Shot 45% while average 9.5 PPG, 1.2 STLs, 4.7 RB’s, and 2.1 assits. Struggles from the free throw line hitting just 55% in his rookie season. Making less than 1 million per year, with 1 guaranteed year left, then 2 non-guaranteed years to follow.
Asset #8 Marcus “Mook” Morris 6’9” 235lbs PF (1st Year Player)
Played in only 17 games last season averaging just 7.4 minutes. Owed 1.9 million next year and has two team option years at right around 2 million for the following 2 seasons.
Asset #9 Patrick Peterson 6’9” 235bs F (2nd Year Player)
Played in 64 of 66 games last season starting one while averaging 23.2 mpg. Scored 7.7 PPG while shooting 44% from the floor and 70% from the free throw line. Averaged 4.5 RPG. Owed 2.1 million this coming season, with team options at 3.1 million and 4.3 million the following two years.