Dwight wants out. We want a good first step to rebuilding and Houston seems like the only place willing to risk true assets to take Dwight off our hands. So, if I was Rob Hennigan, these are the things that I would need for Houston to do:
Take JRich, QRich and Duhon's contract. I can live with keeping Hedo and seeing if we can snag something for him at the trade deadline.
No long term contracts unless they are on the rookie scale. Let them amnesty Scola to open up their cap space. Martin's deal obviously has to be in any trade to us, and at least he can contribute while he's here and possibly we can swap him for another expiring (or a young project) and a draft pick at the trade deadline.
Toronto's lottery pick and at least 2 other first rounders. Preferably I'd like their 2014 pick, just in case Dwight leaves and they are a lottery team in 2013-2014. I think they can trade the 2014 pick because they have the Mavericks 2013 top-20 protected pick (via the Lakers).
At least 2 of these 4 players: Jeremy Lamb, Royce White, Terrence Jones, and Chandler Parsons. I don't really know much about Royce White and I'm not sold on Jeremy Lamb. I'd love to get Terrence Jones (more forward depth) and Chandler Parsons (6'9" small forward with some playmaking ability, sounds familiar). If we can get 3 or all 4, we definitely go for it, but I wouldn't hold out for all four.
Here's Houston's current situation ($ amount is just for 2012-2013 salary):
Kevin Martin: $12.44 million, 1 year left
Luis Scola: $9.4 million, 3 years left
Courtney Lee: $4.4 million Qualifying Offer
Shaun Livingston: $3 million, 1 year left (only $1 million guaranteed)
Patrick Patterson: $2.1 million, 2 years left (1 is team option)
Toney Douglas: $2.1 million, 1 year left
Marcus Morris: $1.9 million, 3 years left (2 are team options)
Gary Forbes: $1.5 million, 1 year left
Donatas Motiejunas: $1.36 million, 4 years (2 are team option I believe, cannot be traded until August 3rd)
Jon Brockman: $1 million, 1 year left
Chandler Parsons: $0.89 million, 3 years left (last two can be fully unguaranteed if he is waived in January the previous year)
Greg Smith: $0.76 million, 3 years left (partially guaranteed)
Courtney Fortson: $0.76 million unguaranteed
Diamon Simpson: $0.76 million unguaranteed
Josh Harrellson: $0.76 million unguaranteed
Jerome Jordan: $0.76 million unguaranteed
Jon Leuer: $0.76 million unguaranteed (cannot be traded until August 27th)
Derek Fisher buyout: $0.64 million
I'm going to assume that they sign the Omer Asik offer sheet, and he accepts: $8.37 million
These are the rookie scale contracts (signed at the normal 120% of scale):
Jeremy Lamb: $2.02 million
Royce White: $1.65 million
Terrence Jones: $1.49 million
Furkan Aldemir: second round pick
Total salaries (assuming all salaries become guaranteed): $58.96 million
Total salaries (after amnestying Scola and not guaranteeing 5 of the minimum contracts, leaving them with 14 on the roster): $45.76 million
2012-2013 salary cap: $58.044 million
Tax level: $70.3 million
If they remain under the tax level after this trade, then they can take back up to 125% of outgoing salaries + $0.1 million.
My ideal trade (this would have to take place in two parts, the first while Houston has $12.25 million in cap space)
SG Jason Richardson: $5.8 million, 3 years left
PG Chris Duhon: $3.25 million, 2 years left (last is partially guaranteed)
G/F Quentin Richardson: $2.63 million, 2 years left (last is a player option)
3 TPE (this is technically 3 separate trades)
These trade leave Houston with $0.57 million under the cap and far enough under the tax for Part 2
SG Kevin Martin: $12.44 million, 1 year left
SF Chandler Parsons: $0.89 million, 3 years left
G/F Jeremy Lamb draft rights
F Terrence Jones draft rights
PG Shaun Livingston: $3 million, 1 year left (only $1 million guaranteed)
Raptors Lottery Pick, Houston 1st rounders in 2014, 2016 and maybe 2018 pick
Outgoing Salaries: $16.33 million
C Dwight Howard: $19.54 million, 1 year left
Orlando's Final Roster
PG: Nelson, Wayns (maybe)
SG: Martin, Redick, Lamb, Liggins
SF: Parsons, Turkoglu
PF: Nicholson, Jones, Harper
C: Davis, Ayon
Yeah, we will probably be pretty bad next year, but a lottery pick would help the rebuild. If we take on no long term, high salary contracts in trades for Martin and Turkoglu, you would be looking at about $27 million of guaranteed contracts for 2013-2014, albeit with a bare bones roster. We'd also have 2 lottery picks in 2013 and possibly more in 2014, 2016 and 2018.
I doubt that Houston would give up all of this, but if it was very similar to this offer, I wouldn't hesitate to take it.
Weigh in with your thoughts, or clear up any salary cap discrepancies I have made. My salary cap info came from Shamsports.com, but it and I may not be up to date with the Rocket's current roster.