FanPost

Free Agent Class of 2012: An Optimist Perspective

I am an optimist, so assume:

  • Miracle # 1: Stan Van Gundy stays.
  • Miracle # 2: Dwight Howard stays. Dwight legally binds to a promise to remain in Orlando but resigns next summer. (Financially, we have the best case to retain him. And Amway Arena is his own gym.)
  • A nice goodbye to Otis Smith.
  • No Fran Vazquez -- now let's not get carried away with optimism.
  • Magic resign Ryan Anderson for $7.5-8 million. (New CBA supports hypothesis hopefully.)
  • Bye Von Wafer. (Saves $1.1 million each year. Its just easier to get minimum-wage veterans. We just aren't in rebuilding stage yet. It is very sad to see a fast 6'5" 26-year-old scorer leave.)
  • We will clear more salary cap than most people imagine, because the 19th/49th pick will be given away for Jason Richardson's contract. Hopefully, Hedo Turkuglo can be removed from the roster instead.
  • Jameer Nelson renegotiates and resigns with no-trade clause.

He makes $8 mil next year, while likely still declining as a player some. What’s his next contract going to be on an open market as a UFA? How long a contract do you think he can get in his nearly mid-30’s for what would likely be a backup role? Does he want to bank on not getting injured before he can get a new deal?

Instead, he can take a multi-year deal (guaranteed paycheck) for a payout somewhere in the teens (more money), possibily with a no-trade clause (Orlando is home, after all)…right now.

Since the new labor agreement allows for a huge 1st-year on a contract and a massive drop (I think it can fall 40% after the first year), the Magic could easily offer him say $6 mil next year then drop it to $3.6 mil for the following three years — a total of $18.6 million, in which he’d be paid about what he’s worth next year as an average/inconsistant starter (while the Magic can look to draft/trade for an upgrade), then become a reasonably paid top3 backup PG. Not to mention it drops his salary burden on the Magic right before next off-season, which is a pretty big priority if they want to keep Howard or upgrade.

IMPOSSIBLE

Deron Williams (Dallas or New Jersey) - I am trying to be as practically optimistic as I can be. Unless we self-destruct the roster.

Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Jeremy Lin, Goran Dragic (Dragic is possibly an "8-figure candidate".), Gerald Wallace (he has a player option of $9.5 million, not giving that up unless its for more or long-term. Not financially possible.)

HOPE

Steve Nash

  • competing with New York [Carmelo, Amare, Lin, Nash, Phil Jackson, some fire extinguishers, Puerto Rico's Tyson Chandler, Spike Lee; really? too much diversity on that team. Orlando suits him better. New York will mock Nash-led offense like they spit at D'Antoni as soon as they lose a few Big Apple games with especially bad defense.]
  • Phoenix is such a cowardly cop-out.
  • Dallas. [Dirk + Deron Williams = Steve Nash running second unit? Nash the Next Sixth Man? What...] Legacy's aren't completed on the backs of other people's work.
  • Dallas [Dirk + Nash + Kidd = no Deron] [could work..... but I can see Nash having more success in Orlando.]
  • also competing with San Antonio and Miami which are unlikely destinations. Can't see these defensive minded teams pulling a Nash. Miami has no need for another amazing full-court player.
Plus, Miami is $8m over luxury tax already in 2012 so only have mini MLE (3 year / $3m)
  • he is built for pick and roll Orlando.

CHEAPER: LIKELY AND MAYBE

Expensive But Great Candidates

Courtney Lee ($3.2 million Qualifying Offer) - We are in budget hell right now.

George Hill (I really loved the way he suddenly busted out with offensiveness against Orlando.) But $3.1 million Qualifying Offer for a restricted free agent. A tad small bit turn-over prone. But can really light up the offensive end under pressure. A lot of playoff experience with San Antonio and Indiana. His value only climbs higher as the Pacers win postseason games.

He is a solid deep shooter, a sure-handed ball-handler and a pretty good defender. He possesses both the spot-up game and the pick and roll game. Has a very crafty as a pick and roll player, finishing ninth in the league on plays where he attempted a shot off a pick and roll, He is prone to over-dribbling sometimes. The Pacers won't let him go away for the mid-level exception or below. Even attaching a poison pill to an offer (i.e. when you frontload the contract offer so it costs more for the Pacers to match in the first year) probably won't work because the Pacers are well under the cap.


Weak Cheap and Fun Candidates

Tracy McGrady I read the Aldrige article.

Vince Carter Cousins for chaos!

Gilbert Arenas

Via Larry Coon,

The waiving team may not re-sign or re-acquire the player for the length of his contract (which includes seasons following an ETO, but does not include seasons following an option)…" I believe that means if Arenas had a player option this year which I believe he did means Orlando can in fact sign him in free agency."

Kenyon Martin (amazingly aggressive veteran with defensive skill and hateful passion. Love it.

Cheap, Risky Candidates

Danny Green coming off of $0.9 million contract from San Antonio. How good will he play without Tony Parker? I think he is a generic version of brand-name George Hill.

Green is an outstanding deep shooter, hitting nearly 44 percent of his threes last year. He's also an underrated ball-handler, turning it over on just 11.4 percent of his possessions, and he was in the top 25 in the league in transition scoring efficiency according to MySynergySports.com. Unfortunately, Green also doesn't create many shots for others, as he has a very small 8.2-percent assist percentage. I could see him getting the mid-level exception, and I could see him getting far less. Also, remember that the Spurs can match any offer, assuming they extend him his small qualifying offer. Probably won't cost too much


REJECT LIST

Derek Fisher Sounds like an Otis Smith era signee!

Nazr Mohammed (no need for another center but maybe a rebound machine in the paint?) Don't like it. That is what Earl Clark's niche is.

Kirk Hinrich A veteran point guard who averages 26 mpg for 7 points. He is a good on-ball defender. But 35% 3-pt shooter and 6'4". No thank you. We have Hedo for these kind of stats. His potential reminds me of Chris Duhon's potential before signing him. Pursue Andre Miller. We desperately need an offensive playmaker.

Mickael Pietrus (cheap defensive 3-point shooter. A better less passionate Quentin Richardson.) But he will undergo another knee surgery this offseason which needs extended time to recover. Magic just don't have time for post-injury updates on players. The salary cap situation is horrible. Must start off great to put an end to the myth of Dwight's departure.

Press this blue button to find any other free agents.

  1. Remember that Dwight will fix his free-throw problem this off-season.
  2. Remember that Rich Devos doesn't believe in salary caps. And neither do I.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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