Orlando Magic Bench Struggling to Convert Two-Point Shots
by Evan Dunlap on Feb 12, 2012 10:00 AM EST
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Among the reasons the Orlando Magic struggle offensively is their lack of reliable scoring from their bench. Reserve two-guard J.J. Redick is the most prolific of the bunch, averaging 10.9 points per game in 25.2 minutes, but scoring from point guard Chris Duhon and big man Glen Davis is considerably more scarce. And when swingman Quentin Richardson earns playing time, it's for defensive purposes; the 12-year veteran shoots just 7.7 times per 36 minutes, the second-lowest figure on the team, behind Duhon's 5.8 tries per 36.
A common thread in the reserves' struggles? An inability to make a two-point basket. Richardson, Redick, and Duhon shoot better from beyond the three-point arc than inside it. Davis, too, shoots below an acceptable percentage on two-point shots. The data, and more, follow the jump.
| Player | 2FG% | 3FG% |
|---|---|---|
| Glen Davis | 36.9% | 16.7% |
| Chris Duhon | 35.7% | 41.7% |
| Quentin Richardson | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| J.J. Redick | 40.6% | 42.7% |
| TOTAL | 37.9% | 40.4% |
In a vacuum, there's nothing wrong with a player who shoots better from three-point territory than from two-point range. But when that's the case for three of a given team's top four reserves, and its lone rotation-playing backup big-man, it can prove problematic. Each of these players needs the table set for him, so to speak, in order to score effectively; Redick can create off the dribble, sure, but he's markedly more effective shooting threes off the catch than long twos off the bounce.
In other words, the Magic's lack of reliable bench scoring speaks to the front office's inability to provide coach Stan Van Gundy with a well-rounded roster than it does to any sort of problem on the players' parts, though they aren't entirely without blame. Davis, for instance, cannot continue to force long jumpers. His shot-selection is woeful, arguably the worst on the team. Picking his spots better would surely raise his shooting percentage.
And Van Gundy isn't blameless either. He has journeyman shooting guard Von Wafer at his disposal, but has only played him in 17 games. The former Florida State Seminole is shooting 52.7 percent on two-pointers and 40 percent on threes. He and Ryan Anderson lead the team in True Shooting Percentage (59.6 percent), and only Dwight Howard and Anderson score more points per minute than Wafer. If this information sounds familiar, it should, as I mentioned it in a scouting report on Wafer I posted Wednesday, and I don't wish to beat a dead horse. But scoring has been an issue for this Magic team throughout the season, and a big reason for it is their lackluster bench play.
Perhaps playing Wafer won't improve the situation dramatically. But I don't see any evidence that it would hurt, either.
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Evan, you are totally right
I am not getting why Wafer has been riding the bench as if he is the one who had gotten into a shouting match w/ SVG.
by CBMagic85 on Feb 12, 2012 10:37 AM EST via Android app reply actions
Two-point shots are so 2005...
To be serious though, this information is sure alarming for the Magic’s offense. Unless we’’ll have someone raining miracle 3s every night. It also seems that guys who make threes can’t even get their FTs to fall. E.D., do you believe that Von Wafer’s D is problematic to the point that Stan is right not to play him ? You don’t often criticize Stan’s roster choices but when you do you’re probably correct so I was wondering if you have a theory for Stan’s stubbornness.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
There has to be a story behind Wafer not getting burn.
Especially given how poorly the bench has played at times. I’m interested in hearing Stan’s rationale.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
Stan is too dependent on his starters
If you notice Stan hasnt been the most flexible and open minded of coaches. He has to be painted into a corner before playing his rookies, won’t try to diversify the offense and refuses to try to extend his bench. The offensive scheme has gotten stale and as long as he’s coach it will only become more predictable.
by telka on Feb 12, 2012 12:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Why would he play the rookies? They aren't ready for playing time. The only thing that he needs to change is his bench imo
Having Wafer and not using him is going to hurt us, but I believe in SVG and what he’s been doing has been working so idk why people have been complaining about it.
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
Working? Sometimes I question his decisions
For example, he played Hedo a lot when Turk clearly wasnt interested in the ball game, standing around idly on offense and making bad decisions with the ball (for example the game against Atlanta). I thought SVG would at least realize Hedo’s focused mentally, but that’s only a minor issue to me. The rookies should deserve some playing time – I’m not saying a great deal, 3-4 minutes that isnt complete garbage time would be ideal. Harper and Liggins can only learn so much through practice and should experience the intensity of an actual game, they won’t grow as players if they’re never presented with challenges.
I'm a guy
Who's minutes would you cut for the rookies? Heck, Wafer hasn't even got playing time and he should come before Liggins. Same thing goes for Harper in Clark.
And yes, it has been working. We’ve won five of the last seven and Jameer, J-Rich, and Hedo have all worked through their slumps it appears (Hedo can be argued, but I think he is). SVG isn’t perfect and can make people angry at him, but he’s been successful with this team and until that stops idk why anyone should really question him.
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
I'm not proposing that SVG cuts anyone's minutes
All I want for him is prevent a lethargic 3rd quarter cause the team sometimes really struggles with scoring right after halftime. Yes we’ve won a good deal of our past few games but there are times where the lineup’s offensive ability is near terrible (QRich, Duhon, Davis) because there isn’t a lot of ball movement and the team becomes turnover prone. Putting in the rookies/Wafer for a burst of energy is something I think Stan should do more, and their player time should increase/decrease depending on the results.
I'm a guy
It probably has more to do with learning the system etc.
Look at Wafer’s FG’s mostly iso plays. I think SVG’s decisions not to play him more (and the same with the rookies) is that they still have to learn all the plays and defensive schemes, and until that happens they might cost us wins. It’s a shortened season with very few practices so it’s going to take a lot of time for them to learn and then earn some minutes. Expect some minutes for these guys later in the season once the regulars are fully in sync.
I agree, Wafer is sometimes reckless and still a liability on defense
But to me the rookies are on the roster for a reason, sure they might not play until a win’s not in doubt but injuries may cause SVG to resort to them and I’d rather have them prepared then not. I simply don’t understand Stan periodically using Wafer, especially on b2b nights when everyone tends to be tired.
I'm a guy
When it comes to the rookies
I would play Wafer over Liggins and Liggins over Q. I am pretty sick of this myth that Q is a good defensive player. His lack of height is a sever liability.
Harper doesnt deserve any PT imo. I would like to see Clark take Davis minutes. Davis plays like an idiot on the offensive end
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 12, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
I miss when the conversation was Anderson or Bass for BACKUP along with Gortat. Now our backcourt has zero depth and skill outside the starters
Magic Fan since '92
by TittyBrewsky on Feb 13, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Once again thank you Otis
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 13, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Was this always a problem this season? or is JJ's recent "slump" the cause? I remember that J.J would ran past screens
early this year and pop from the high key
"Number one song and a Grammy, now I'm smashing
Maserati crashing, swerving through the traffic
Wrap it 'round a pole, sell a mil off the tragedy
I defy gravity "
Davis may have bad shot selection...
But Jameer actively looks for the worst possible shot on the court and he’s a starter. He takes so many shots just inside the 3pt line with someone in his face and it drives me up a wall. The only shots I am typically comfortable with him taking are the lay-ups where he inevitably winds up on his butt with the photographers.
I haven't seen Jameer shoot that shot pretty much at all. I have seen him shoot the step back jumper with a hand in his face, but he loves that shot and shoots it very well
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
Jameer is looking much better since his concussion.
His conditioning must be improving now too, he is pushing the ball alot more and played the first 9mins of the bucks game. Duhon usually comes in about halfway through the qtr.
Deja' vu
Perhaps there are behind the scenes circumstances affecting his decision, but SVG’s refusal to give Von Wafer some burn is perplexing if not frustrating.
When the post season begins to slow games to a grind, and teams have preparation time, this is going to matter.
We know SVG is a ‘Moneyball’ disciple. His development of the three point Magic offense, which emphasizes shot efficiency, clearly indicates a knowledge and usage of advanced statistics. What is it that is making him override the numbers and the clearly visible evidence that the second unit needs to diversify its attack? Why is he going down the same road yet again?
This is not an unfamiliar scenario; we’ve seen this with Bass and also the Gortat/Howard twin tower lineup. It is clear Wafer’s skill set will be needed during the post season. Why is Van Gundy refusing to let chemistry and familiarity develop with lineups incorporating Von Wafer?
Perplexing and frustrating.
About sums it up. It would just be nice to have some kind of info on it.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
Especially since SVG complained last year in the playoffs how he doesnt have a guy like Jamal Crawford
Wafer is a under utilized scoring machine that gets no run
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 12, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
I can't remember the last time Evan suggested a player be utilized more from the bench
and he wasn’t being somewhat sarcastic. So you know there must be merit to it. I really don’t think Wafer is a great player or anything but I think on this team he’s the best we got at the abilities you have outlined in this post. Therefore he should work his way into the rotation more often to create a new wrinkle for the offense. Especially on a back to back.
But Davis’ shot selection…great googily moogily. That guy has the basketball IQ of a jar of mayonnaise.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
"Great googily moogily" lmao.
Whoever heard of a cat eating porridge? Why can't we have a mouse like other pussycats?
That
will never get old. Well, except it was already old at that point.
I'm going to brag. I drive the Nikola Pekovic fanwagon.
by Cynical Jason on Feb 14, 2012 2:11 AM EST up reply actions
I talk to the TV a lot
and say “Don’t shoot Glen.” His shot selection is turrible. I agree that Von should be getting more playing time especially when the offense is struggling.
What's in New Jersey besides Snooki?
I dont understand it he consistently shoots 19 ft. jumpers WITH A GUY IN HIS FACE!
Its like this guy thinks he’s an All-Star
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 13, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
I miss Bass.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
I don't,
but I don’t want Glen Davis either. Is it that hard to find an undersized PF jump shooter that understands shot selection and defensive rotations?
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Feb 12, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
Millsap is the only guy that is undersized. Jefferson and Favors are pretty big
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 12, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
Jefferson has a fantastic post game.. not sure about Favors
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 12, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Another great article
Agree 100%. Also I wish he would play hedo off the bench. He could run the offense, it would help get the ball moving. I really think Van gundy is pretty disinterested in doing anything until after the all star game and the Dwight situation is over. Whats the point of figuring out line-ups when half your team may be gone in a few weeks.
That's a possibility I didn't think of.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
There are three reaosns why J.J., J-Rich and Duhon score a higher percentage on 3-pointers than 2-pointers:
- These players are not slashers who try to get closer to the rim before they attempt a shot, although J.J. and J-Rich occasionally curl to the basket, and Duhon sometimes attacks the rim for a layup.
- They are exemplary 3-point shooters, and as such why take a 2-point jumpshot if a 3-point jumpshot could be had?
- They probably practice set plays to free shooters beyond the arc more often than within the arc, and that is predicated by players’ capabilities at shooting 3-pointers.
As for playing Wafer and other bench players (Earl Clark and Ish Smith come to mind) here is what I think:
- In Coach Van Gundy’s system offense starts with good defense, and as long as Wafer and Smith do not show true commitment to defense, they may only get spotty minutes based on necessities. And since they are 3rd stringers, as long as the starters and back-ups are performing adequately, why bother?
- Earl Clark’s offense is awful, and I think SVG has preached him already with improving his offense, and that is the main reason he is not getting consistent minutes. One may ask then since Davis is not burning the barn on offense, why not give some of his minutes to Earl? The answer, in my view, is that the coach is expecting for Davis to eventually come around and improve his shooting after he is fully acclimated to the system.
Learning is not compulsory, but have you learned anything today?
I'm not sure what commitment you are talking about in regards to Wafer. His defensive numbers tell a different story.
• Wafer has held opposing SG’s to a PER of 5.7 and .404 eFG%. By comparison Redick has held opposing SG’s to a 10.4 PER (.472 eFG%) and Jason Richardson has held opposing SG’s to a 15.8 PER (.513 eFG%).
• Basketball-Reference.com Defensive Rating has RIchardson at 102, Wafer at 105, and Redick at 106.
• Stats cube Def Rating (team points allowed per 100 possessions) has J Rich at 101.1, Wafer at 102.8 and Redick at 99.5.
The sample size is limited, but still the numbers don’t lie – he is far from a liability on defense. Wafer has the tools to be a very good defender. What he needs is floor time because this season there are few practices. Now is the time to acclimate him to the defense (and offense), not as an afterthought during the mayhem of the playoffs.
Given that the Magic desperately need his skill set, there is no statistical indicator that justifies not giving him the opportunity.
Nobody is saying start Von Wafer, but when the offense is shooting blanks (as is happening way too often) why not insert him for 5-10 minutes to unclog the drain.
Athletically he has the best chance at staying with opposing SG's
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 12, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you for digging out the numbers. However, These numbers are skewed since the players are not playing against the same levels of competition.
In general, defensive stats have always been tricky since many variables don’t get tracked and incorporated. In offense, scoring numbers is a variable that covers many variances, even when unaccounted for, as long as the samples are large. That is not the case with defense.
As for Wafer, the eye-test indicates that he often loses his man – fails to keep him in front – and that has little to do with speed or athletic abilities. Keeping in front of offensive player, has a lot to do with being able to stop and change directions more so than with speed and athletic abilities.
I am all for Wafer to get more playing time, depending on necessities, but not willing to second guess the coach. We have to remember that Wafer is too small to play SF so his minutes should come at the expense of J-Rich and J.J., both of whom are playing well offensively.
One thing which we often tend to forget is that as long as there is any sliver of optimism for Dwight to stay, Coach Van Gundy needs to manufacture wins so that Dwight would be kept warm, happy, satisfied, and willing to stay … my feeling is, although I am not keeping high hopes, that Dwight is still conflicted and confused on what he wants to do. In such situation, coach Van Gundy cannot tinker with the roster before players prove their worth in practice. There is no doubt that he is a stats geek and always goes through the numbers … the issue is that -despite common cliche numbers lie if not interpreted in proper context.
Learning is not compulsory, but have you learned anything today?
The numbers skew in both directions. J Rich has the benefit of playing nearly all his minutes with Dwight behind him.
That fact greatly skews J Rich’s defensive statistics. That is why his Def Rtg’s don’t look that bad. But if you look at the individual positional performance, on a nightly basis the opposing shooting guards play way above average in the minutes played against J Rich.
Interestingly, when J Rich’s is at SF (nearly always paired w/ JJ), the opponents SF PER is 11.5. When playing SG, J Rich is a -26 (-7/per48) in net points but at SF he is a plus 2 (+.7/per48).
As for the subjective assessment, I have watched and have not seen the same thing you are seeing and I don’t think that is why SVG is benching Wafer. Brian Schmidtz recently paraphrased SVG ’s sentiments on why he has not made adjustments to the wing rotation (moving JJ to starter). He said that the team already had enough internal drama going on with the Howard situation, and the last thing he wanted was to pile on more chemistry concerns to an already highly combustible situation.
If defense is the reason why Wafer, Ish, Clark and the other guys are not...
playing I don’t see it as a strong argument, some times second unit does not play good defense at all AND does not score at all!!!! So in my opinion why not to try with guys that might put an extra effort on offense? At least they might keep the points difference in case our team is winning… it’s my opinion, but just to be clear i don’t know much about basketball tactical stuff…
For Clark specifically,
it’s his offense that keeps him on the bench. I’d love to know the reasoning for Wafer, though.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Feb 12, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
When you say "second unit" you have to be specific ... we don't have much options in some positions but have some at others. The point is we cannot abandon 'BAD' hoping for better because the end result could be 'WORSE'.
Learning is not compulsory, but have you learned anything today?
You do *not* want Orton over anyone.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
i've said this over and over and OVER AGAIN...
SVG is a stubborn, at times childish, idiotic chump. The magic need a TOP TIER coach ala Hubbie Brown or Jerry Sloan: two proven to have developed YOUNG players in the past. From what’s being said around the league Sloan is pretty bored living in one of his ranchs.
SVG got on my bad side ever since he benched Rafer in the 09 Finals just to make Dwight and his buddy buddy 6’0" happy. SMH
Fire Stan and Otis!
by extremoceleste on Feb 13, 2012 12:24 PM EST reply actions
This is the one consistent complaint I have with SVG.. in game adjustments and rotations
Once he has what he sees as a set rotation he sticks with it no matter what. Injury is the only factor that can change this. Last year Pietrus somehow found himself out of the rotation which led him to be a disgruntled player. He was our only above average wing defender
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 13, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
God Glen Davis is awful
I hope he’s giving the locker room about $5m in chemistry a season because he’s a horrible basketball player.
$25.7m over 4 seasons. Brilliant, Otis Smith. Brilliant.
yet another un-tradeable contract
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Feb 13, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
It amazing to me that people whould want to get rid of Stan just to play scrubs
Where petulance happens
by Satch30 on Feb 13, 2012 4:49 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Yeah, I don't get that either
He doesn’t tend to experiment with his lineup, so that means he should be fired? Because Von freaking Wafer isn’t getting 3 minutes more a game? Really?
by eltharion_doa on Feb 13, 2012 9:17 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
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