Wafer: here are the facts.
by 3.3seconds on Jan 2, 2012 2:03 PM EST
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PrintSo there's been some talk of Von Wafer lately. I've been hearing a lot of posts that make assumptions about who Von Wafer is or what he does, and I'm not sure the statistics bear all of it out. So I'm just going to look at what the numbers say about Wafer in this post. It's worth mentioning that the numbers are unreliable -- he's only gotten reliable NBA playing time in 2008-09 and 2010-11. (He got spot minutes in a couple earlier seasons -- with the Lakers, Denver, Portland, and 1 minute in a Clippers game. He was terrible in those early seasons, though, so if you're giving him the benefit of the doubt, it's probably best to ignore them.)
Anyway, as I said -- I'm going to lay this out with as little analysis or opinion as possible...
-- Wafer has 41.4% shooting, 31.8% three-point shooting and 53.0% true shooting over his career. All somewhat below league average. It is worth mentioning that he did average a respectable 44.7%/39.0%/54.1% during the one season he had the most playing time -- 2008-09 with Houston. But last year in Boston, he averaged 42% from the field and 27% beyond the arc.
-- Wafer has historically been a high-usage player, despite his generally inaccurate scoring. 12 MPG career with 4.6 FG attempts and 1.1 FT attempts. (Note: even though he attacks the rim a lot, he doesn't draw a lot of fouls.)
-- Wafer is not a very good assist creator, but he takes care of the ball. 12 MPG, 0.7 assists, 0.6 turnovers per game.
-- Wafer is not a factor as a rebounder -- not that you expect a SG to be.
-- Wafer's usage numbers declined drastically last year in Boston -- 2.7 FG attempts in 9.5 minutes a game. (0.6 assists, 0.3 turnovers, so it's not necessarily that he became more pass-first. He might have just gotten fewer touches.) Make of that what you will -- it might not be a change in Wafer's approach to the game. It might be that the Celtics saw his low-percentage shooting and funneled the ball away from him.
-- Wafer has a reputation as a below-average defender with a low basketball IQ. His steal numbers aren't impressive, for whatever that's worth.
-- Wafer also has a history of causing trouble with coaches and the like. Despite a pretty good 2008-09 season with Houston, he clashed with Rick Adelman, who at one point threw him out of a playoff game. He played 2009-10 in Greece, and also had issues with the management there. The Rockets were willing to re-sign him in winter '10, but he failed a physical. Reports suggest that Wafer settled down somewhat in Boston last season, though not before getting into a pre-season fistfight with Delonte West. (Admittedly, Delonte West is Delonte West.)
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 2, 2012 2:15 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
lol
It’s curious how Orlando Magic fans love to discuss about their reserves. Last year was Bass vs Anderson. This year is Wafer, and Hughes vs Richardson and Duhon. Anyway, it’s always better to talk about this rather than Dwight Howard trade scenarios.
Well, it's what can be discussed.
There’s not much to say about Howard besides “yeah, he’s awesome, hope he stays.”
I’m trying not to talk TOO much about Anderson — he’s one of my favorite players, and I’m not surprised he’s excelling. (For my money, he should have been starting last year too.)
Davis is the only other NBA-caliber big man on the team, so of course he’s getting the bulk of the backup minutes.
Hedo, like Anderson, has been a really pleasant surprise thus far. I thought this might happen too — since leaving the Magic last time, Hedo’s played with two teams that didn’t need a passing SF and a Magic team who drew up their playbook in the fall with the expectation that Rashard Lewis and Quentin Richardson would be sharing time at the 3. Of course Hedo was going to do better as soon as the Magic’s offense acknowledged that he was Hedo and played to his strengths… but I don’t want to get too optimistic just yet.
Jameer Nelson is Jameer Nelson. We know him, we love him, we occasionally argue about his defense. He’s pretty much the same guy he’s always been, though. Duhon is the only legitimate backup PG on the team, so aside from some agitating by people who don’t realize that you can’t just plug a SG in at the 1, that’s pretty stable too.
Which leaves SG, and to my mind, the question is “how do we get enough time for Richardson and Redick?” This may be the only position where the Magic have two guys who could legitimately start, and both of them are pretty securely tied to the SG position. But then there are a lot of people who are acting like Wafer is a candidate to play over either one of those guys, and they seem to be making a couple assumptions: that Wafer can shoot the 3 well, and that he’s a plus defender. So I just wanted to establish that neither of those assumptions has a very firm historical basis, so that we could move on to the business at hand.
It's on like Gregg Zaun!
well
About Jason Richardson.
I know his career numbers are pretty good and you’d expect him to improve. (by a large margin even)
But he is a minus defender and is shooting 0.167 3P%.
Are we sure that we need to worry about getting minutes for him? And are we confident that Wafer can’t shoot higher than 16%?
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 2, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
18 shots isn't even close to being relevant statistically.
Certainly, if Richardson continues shooting 17% for three, that is a problem. But do you really think that this is suddenly who he is now?
It's on like Gregg Zaun!
by 3.3seconds on Jan 2, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I never thought that Jason Richardson was a great player, or a great scorer, or a great shooter.
And I find sudden drop offs in aging players that the Magic have signed for the next 4 years alarming.
Especially players that rely heavily on their athleticism.
And so what is the other side of the coin? I think that Jason Richardson’s three point percentage will go up. But to what? 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
What does it matter? He does nothing else for the team but score. And he is shooting 17% from three.
So why is it a priority to give him minutes? Does anyone think that he is going end up shooting a better % this year than Redick?
Richardson is at best made redundant by JJ Redick. And at worst hurting the team by taking away minutes from JJ Redick. The only value he has left is he needs to get minutes so hopefully his numbers improve so hopefully he can be traded later this year.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 2, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Way to be a fan
Talking shit about a Magic’s player after 5 games
by ArmandoT11 on Jan 2, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Find me a 38% three-point shooter who became a sub-30% three-point shooter over the span of one year.
Find me a guy who shot 38% or better on threes for six straight years, then suddenly was no longer a weapon beyond the arc.
The fact that his shots didn’t fall for the span of one week/18 shots is not a relevant piece of data. If Richardson went 12-18 for three in the first five games, you wouldn’t think he was suddenly a 65% three-point shooter, would you? And if someone pointed out that it was 18 shots, you wouldn’t say “well, maybe he’s not a 65% shooter, but maybe he’s a 55% shooter now?” That would be as ridiculous as what you’re currently doing.
And I’m not saying Richardson should get minutes at the expense of Redick. I’d rather see Redick out there than Richardson too (though I think it’s at least arguable.)
But it’s not a binary. I’d rather see Richardson out there than any Magic player who ISN’T a starter or Redick, and I don’t think that’s especially arguable. To my mind, Richardson and Redick should BOTH be playing 30+ minutes on this team, given the roster’s makeup. But that’s tough because they’re both SGs, and neither one of them is really suited to playing up/down a position.
(And yes, if a couple months pass and we can get a good deal for Richardson — or a good deal for Redick, who clearly has more trade value at this point — I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed. But there’s no reason to talk about that now.)
It's on like Gregg Zaun!
lol
I think the debate is getting a little side tracked. In every post I made I said I expect Richardson’s shooting to improve. It’s not my fault that he is shooting a percentage that is so low that he could not conceivably continue shooting it. If he was shooting 33% and I said we were better off playing JJ more and J-Rich less would that be somehow more palatable? heh
And, you have a point about Richardson being easily one of our 6 best players. But all i am saying is that our two best wing players are Hedo Turkoglu & JJ Redick. Jason Richardson is the third wheel. And so “getting enough time for J-Rich” shouldn’t be the issue. J-Rich should fill in the gaps whenever Redick and Turkoglu need rest.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 2, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
I just got back. I’m excited. (Weirdly enough, not really excited about Wafer. Just excited.)
It's on like Gregg Zaun!
by 3.3seconds on Jan 2, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
lol, fair enough.
I was just joking. You can never have too many FanPosts about anything.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 2, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
not even Howard trade scenarios?
"Generally, when I draw the play, it's just who's going where. Maybe I have not made it clear enough that we would like the ball to go in the basket."
by AB's triple double on Jan 3, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Fanpost from 09 called "Von Wafer would look good in blue"
Clicking here “I’m a Von Wafer fan, and he’d be a welcome addition to the club. Evan Dunlap.”
From same fanpost...
“No, it won’t be the same. It’ll be better.
Carter will do Hedo-y things, and he’ll do them better.- Evan Dunlap”
If only that were true. haha =)
Fear the Beard!
by BleedingBlueSince89 on Jan 2, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
If you were to be optimistic, and dream that Wafer can replicate his stats in Houston
He’d be a very good player, but where’s the 20 minutes going to come from?
Unless Otis decides to package JJ in a Dwight trade deal, God forbid
Otis Smith should be banned from ever acting as a GM if he gives away any promising asset in a Dwight trade.
Any team that desires Dwight should absorb some of our undesirable contracts and not to take away some of our younger promising talents. Of course, that would be the least expected, but ideally, receiving some draft picks and help with salary shedding should also be included.
Discussing Wafer’s true value is legitimate since some exaggerated his value for reasons unknown to me. Is there an attempt to hype his value beyond realities because Davis’ arrival was a lateral movement at best? In fact, the only justifiable move by Otis Smith may have been re-signing Richardson to a reasonable contract, and even at that, the length of the contract is questionable.
RL Magic said, "Unless Otis decides to package JJ in a Dwight trade deal, God forbid"
So Matt1325 said that Otis shouldn’t be banned from being a GM if he trades any asset away in a Dwight trade. He should instead send bad contracts in a trade. Also, Wafer’s true value is in question. Some have hoped his abilities exceed expectations because the Davis trade was “a lateral movement at best”. He goes on to say that re-signing Richardson to a contract, albeit a lengthy one, is the only justifiable move Otis Smith has made.
That’s what he’s talking about. And no need to get angry Matt.
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
should*
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
The funniest part about the 2 posts above me is one's suppose to be from an adult and one from a teenager
You’d completely guess wrong which is from which if you didn’t already know.
Please leave a message, I'm busy hiding my cat from TGS.
Lol
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
Look, some people have a history of nasty comments, and if we don't collectively deal with them, they will grow bolder. Sometimes the old fashioned style of "if hit, hit back harder" is the best deterrent.
The guy was not asking for clarification or looking for a debate. One person kept calling me Matt666 and a troll, and only magicfaninTN told him to cut it out. I kept ignoring these nasty posts but obviously it was not working. So if I get hit and turn around and hit harder, the old fashion way, I don’t give a damn if someone thinks it’s immature … as long as it is an effective deterrent. I have done it in the past not only protecting myself but also protecting those who have been attacked unfairly with the ultimate intention to maintain the quality of the blog, as well.
Well there is the flag comment option if a person's post is out of line.
You could also send Evan an email to voice your opinion if you feel that not enough is being done to keep people acting civil. I don’t keep some long running tab of who disrespects who around here, the only thing I can honestly say is that YOU are pretty much the only person I see around here that is constantly insulting people.
Please leave a message, I'm busy hiding my cat from TGS.
Wrong about what?
Last time I checked there is a flag option. Last time I checked you can email Evan. Last time I checked in my eye’s most of insults towards other posters come from you.
Please leave a message, I'm busy hiding my cat from TGS.
Did you read my post?
First off, I am not a whiner, and Evan has a more serious business to attend to. But didn’t you – or didn’t want to – see when someone called me Matt666, not once or twice but 3 times? How would you feel when someone calls you malenko666? Regardless, how I handle my business is mine to decide. And I am done.
People reap what they sow
When you constantly call people idiots and insult their intelligence and do things like make posts to conduct a “social experiment” then you are going to piss off people and you should expect that the end result will be hostility towards you.
If you want to call me malenko666 then have at it, it’s the internet, there will always be people talking trash and trolling. You know what I do, ignore it, or, if it’s just so out there with malicious intent I report it, cause that’s what the report option is for.
I just don’t understand how your rational can be that you are tired of all these people acting like this and then you come to the conclusion that the best way to make it better is to do the EXACT same thing they do.
Please leave a message, I'm busy hiding my cat from TGS.
I am sorry that we are not on the same page, and I don't have the time to explain misunderstandings in details, so I will attempt a bullet point outline:
- I never intended to call you malenko666 … just asked how would you feel if somebody called you that.
- Your over-generalization makes your assertions less accurate. You have to look at specific cases with their relative histories (i.e., nastynate2012’s history).
- Nobody deserves to be called schizophrenic or suffering from mental disorder regardless of how heated the conversation may get (i.e., Rasheed Wallace’s posts).
- Retaliation with the intention to deter does not equate with the initial aggressive action … the equivalent would be fighting a defensive war.
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