Who does Justin Harper really compare to?
I'm super duper bored. I'm an NBA junkie; obviously I read blogs but I watch the summer league and euro-league, study the cap for free agency, and its all gone. This is usually a good down time in the NBA; now all I hear about is Arenas cap number and how royally screwed the Magic are if they implement some type of hard cap. Whatever; wake me up when they settle it.
But I've been really intrigued about Justin Harper since we drafted him. Every draft all the players get compared to someone and the first person Harper has been compared to was Rashard Lewis. I thought that might be too easy so I wanted to find out if there was someone else that's more comparable. After the jump, my findings.
Harper has said that he will probably be a SF in the league but he played a lot of 4 in college. His shooting numbers the last 2 seasons are off the charts and I wanted to find other "shooting big men/stretch 4" that are like him.
So I came up with Brian Cook(floor), Channing Frye, Rashard Lewis, and Danny Granger (ceiling?). Except for Rashard, they were all seniors coming into the draft. Here are their measurements from the pre-draft camp:
| Measurements | HT | WT | AGE | Max Vert | Bench | Lane Agility | Wingspan |
| Rashard Lewis | 6'10 | 190/210 | 19 | ||||
| Channing Frye | 6'10.5 | 244 | 22 | 31 | 19 | 11.6 | 7'2.6 |
| Brian Cook | 6'11 | 234 | 22 | 29 | 6 | 11.87 | 7'2 |
| Danny Granger | 6'9 | 225 | 22 | 34 | 10 | 10.84 | 7'1.5 |
| Justin Harper | 6'9 | 228 | 21 | 33 | 19 | 11.92 | 6'11.75 |
*Notes-I could not find any of Rashard's pre-draft measurements other than weight. And I got 2 different weights. Crazy thing is Rashard is listed now at 215, Harper already has 13 lbs on him! I used max vertical, bench, and lane agility because those seem like good indicators of athleticism. Wingspan was used to see if he has JJ arms or Durant arms.
Just from the way Harper looks, he looks strong and the bench indicates that. Out of the players that decided to do the bench test, he was tied for first with Derrick Williams. The lane agility is a bit of concern because he will be on the perimeter much more and it seems that he may not have the footspeed to contain quick 3s. In comparison to last years rookies, Gordon Hayword had 11.73 on the lane test and Al Aminu had a 11.29. His wingspan is average for his height. More JJ than Durant unfortunately.
Ok, so I wanted to compare their college careers. Of course Rashard is excluded.
| STATS | GAMES | TS% | eFG% | OWS | DWS | WS | RB |
| Channing Frye | 133 | 0.601 | 0.565 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 21.2 | 7.3 |
| Brian Cook | 132 | 0.592 | 0.547 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 20.4 | 6.2 |
| Danny Granger | 95 | 0.587 | 0.533 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 18.3 | 8.2 |
| Justin Harper | 137 | 0.584 | 0.564 | 9 | 6.6 | 15.6 | 4.8 |
Key-True Shooting %, effective FG%, Offenisve win shares, defensive win shares, win shares, rebounds
Nothing here jumps out in favor of Harper. So how about just their senior years?
| Channing Frye | 37 | 0.605 | 0.557 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| Brian Cook | 30 | 0.577 | 0.511 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 7.6 |
| Danny Granger | 30 | 0.634 | 0.589 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.9 |
| Justin Harper | 37 | 0.642 | 0.618 | 5.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 6.9 |
That's some shooting right there. He ranked 27 and 26 in the nation for eFG% and TS%. Every stat went up so that's good. But his rebounding numbers are pretty low. Here are the rebound % stats:
| ORB% | DRB% | |
| Channing Frye | 10.8 | 17.5 |
| Brian Cook | ||
| Danny Granger | 9.9 | 24.7 |
| Justin Harper | 6.5 | 18.8 |
Sorry, couldn't get Brian Cook's but I imagine it wasn't very good. So Harper was better than Frye at grabbing defensive rebounds in colllege, and Frye was a center/power forward and was expected to grab more boards. Ryan Anderson had an ORB% of 11.5% but again, he is more of a "big". With Dwight here (hopefully) Harper won't be asked to rebound much but he will have to grab a few and he looks to have the strength to go get them.
So what does all this mean? I don't know, its always up to the player to achieve their full potential. Offensively though, I think he can be as good as Danny Granger. Granger is a pretty good defender so I'm not sure Harper will be able to match him there, but defense is a lot about effort and if Harper puts in the effort he should at least be average. Earl Clark scored an 11.17 on the lane test and we have seen the potential for him to be a great defender.
Is there anyone else you think Harper would compare to?
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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Good work
If it's lonely at the top, I'd rather be alone
cause the closest people to ya, the ones who gonna do you wrong
excellent excellent post
Danny Granger comparison seems to be fair. I don’t think Harper will be the 4 for us. It seems like Otis made up for not drafting Granger years ago by getting a version now. Unlike others saying he is a second rounder and won’t stick, I don’t find that true. He had a first round grade and most thought he would go in the first. You just have to look at the for systematically and team philosophy. Harper was born to play for SVG’s Magic. I honestly believe he will take the over at the 3 sooner than you think.
Also thanks for a non lockout, trade, Gil is crazy, Dwight is leaving, fire Otis, or any of the same, usual type of post we get. Very good practical, logical, and positive post.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
He looks like a classic tweener forward to me
Not big enough to bang inside, not athletic enough to guard wings.
the perimeter defense is my concern
but is post play should be passable. He looks strong as an ox.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.
While defense would be nice
As long as the Beast is still in the middle, I think he will be fine. It would be nice if he can bring some play making skill at the 3, but if not that will be fine as well. SVG already mentioned that he liked his ball handling. It was only a couple of days, and I doubt he is a LeBron type creator at the 3, but it would be nice if he can create a little for others. Really excited about Harper. Although I think Liggins will make the team as well and be a solid contributor, but Harper fits Orlando like a glove.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
Nice job on the research...
…thanks for a different, yet very informative post.
Like you mentioned, Harper’s shooting percentages his senior year are eye-opening. It would be great if he can approach those shooting percentages with the Magic.
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by Mike from Illinois on Jul 12, 2011 1:25 AM EDT reply actions
Indeed
Harper is an excellent fit for the Magic. The next step is re-signing Earl Clark. I believe Harper and Clark are the Magic future starting forwards. A new and improved version of Hedo/Lewis. Clark showed the ability to handle the ball and make plays during his limited playing time this past season. Harper can shoot and put the ball on the floor with some ability to post. With Dwight in the middle the Magic front court looks promising.
by TheOinOrlandoMagic on Jul 13, 2011 12:10 AM EDT reply actions
I like Clark but I am not sure he and Harper are the future going forward.
Maybe Harper and Anderson. I still like Clark because he can defend players like Durant and Dirk, but I don’t think he will be the starting forward. I agree Clark can create a little, but again he still needs a lot of seasoning. Something he will not get with the lockout. Also, did you not watch Hedo/Lewis??? They helped Dwight lead this team to the Finals. That is a pretty big legacy you are asking of basically a rookie and someone who, experience wise, barely has a season under him.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
by Mateo9399 on Jul 13, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice Post
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
Nice writeup on Harper.
i was intrigued quite a bit with him pre-draft, and hopefully SVG can find a way to use him next year (insert “if there’s a next year” caveat here) in a reasonable way.
Justin Harper’s a tweener, but he’s a tweener who can shoot efficiently and not necessarily need a ton of possessions to get those points. If anything for the Magic, and should concern them, it’s that he’s a duplication of Ryan Anderson to a degree and I’m not sure that’s something the Magic need.
Still, Harper was a great pickup and could be a nice asset as a throw-in for a trade for the Magic in some way. There is no such thing as having too much talent in the NBA.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Thanks
and I agree. The more cheap assets the Magic have, the better. We actually have a good core of young players with Harper, Liggins, Clark(if re-signed), Anderson, and Orton (if he stays healthy).
But the lockout is so, so detrimental to rookies; especially 2nd round picks. I think Harper is almost guaranteed a spot (as much as a 2nd round pick can because they gave up 2 picks for him), but Liggins is going to really have to impress to make the squad.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.
Good write-up.
I like the Granger comparison, idk if Im just looking at him through homer-vision, but I also thought that the night we drafted him. While its normal to have hopes in our draftees, I wouldnt expect much for him under Stan’s system (other than camping at the 3 pt. line), which is sad. Stan really needs to be more creative in his offensive scheme, because as we all know, we’re quite predictable for the opposing defense.
ORL★NDO, our time will come.
I hope he is not just a spot-up shooter
He seems like he can do a lot more. But I do believe the new players on the team become real hesistant to do anything else but shoot 3s. It takes a while to understand SVG’s system; but the Spurs also have a complex system and they say it takes at least a season to get comfortable.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.

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