Kevin Pelton did something like this years ago using his stats and comparing Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, and Ewing. I'm going to throw in Dwight Howard, narrow down the sample to their first 7 seasons, and use Basketball-Reference's Win Shares. I'm still going to use Bill James's factors but without the timeline adjustment, without the five best consecutive seasons, and a note that since I've narrowed the sample differentiating between 'Career Win Shares total' and 'Career Win Shares per season' is irrelevant, so we will instead look at Win Shares vs Win Shares/48. I am also going to look at Win Shares in the playoffs*. Here are the Factors that Bill James listed (along with my alterations), check in after the jump to see the rest:
First Seven Seasons Win Shares Total
Career Win Shares total
Win Shares in three best seasons
Win Shares in five best consecutive seasonsCareer Win Shares per season (WS/48)
*(Playoffs)
Timeline adjustmentThe subjective element
David Robinson '90-'96 | 15.1, 17.0, 13.9, 13.2, 20.0, 17.5, 18.3 | Total= 114.8
Dwight Howard '05-'11 | 7.3, 8.6, 9.7, 12.9, 13.8, 13.2, 14.4 | Total= 79.8
Shaquille O'Neal '93-'99 | 10.4, 16.9, 14.0, 6.9, 8.0, 10.2, 9.0 | Total= 75.5
Hakeem Olajuwon '85-'91 | 10.2, 9.5, 10.9, 10.7, 12.4, 11.2, 8.6 | Total= 73.6
Patrick Ewing '86-'92 | 3.1, 3.5, 8.1, 10.9, 13.5, 10.0, 13.0 | Total= 62.1
Robinson really shines. The guy looked and played like the prototypical Center, and seems to have hit the ground running in a way that alluded Ewing and to a lesser extent Dwight. Shaq's decision to bolt Orlando also marks a dip in his production, marring what would have been the best seven season start outside of Robinson, Instead, that honor goes to Dwight, who has steadily shouldered a larger and larger burden. Placing ahead of two all time top five centers is quite the accolade.
Win Shares in Three Best Seasons
David Robinson '90-'96 | 20.0, 17.5, 18.3 | Total= 55.8
Dwight Howard '05-'11 | 13.8, 13.2, 14.4 | Total= 41.4
Shaquille O'Neal '93-'99 | 16.9, 14.0, 10.2 | Total= 41.1
Patrick Ewing '86-'92 | 10.9, 13.5, 13.0 | Total= 37.4
Hakeem Olajuwon '85-'91 | 10.9,12.4, 11.2 | Total= 34.5
Here Ewing is able to make up for his slow start and pull ahead of Hakeem. However, the group is unable to close the gap on Robinson. Dwight is still second...
First Seven Seasons Win Shares/48 Average
David Robinson '90-'96 | 0.241, 0.264, 0.260, 0.197, 0.296, 0.273, 0.290 | Average= 0.260
Shaquille O'Neal '93-'99 | 0.163, 0.252, 0.230, 0.171, 0.197, 0.224, 0.255 | Average= 0.213
Dwight Howard '05-'11 | 0.131, 0.137, 0.154, 0.200, 0.234, 0.223, 0.236 | Average= 0.188
Hakeem Olajuwon '85-'91 | 0.168, 0.186, 0.189, 0.182, 0.197, 0.173, 0.201 | Average= 0.184
Patrick Ewing '86-'92 | 0.084, 0.075, 0.154, 0.181, 0.205, 0.155, 0.198 | Average= 0.158
Robinson continues to dominate the field, while Shaq shows his ability to impact the game. Barring early injuries to O'Neal he would have been the clear #2 in Win Shares in this study.
Best Three Seasons Win Shares/48 Average
David Robinson '90-'96 | 0.296, 0.273, 0.290 | Average= 0.286
Shaquille O'Neal '93-'99 | 0.252, 0.230, 0.255 | Average= 0.247
Dwight Howard '05-'11 | 0.234, 0.223, 0.236 | Average= 0.231
Hakeem Olajuwon '85-'91 | 0.189, 0.197, 0.201 | Average= 0.196
Patrick Ewing '86-'92 | 0.181, 0.205, 0.198 | Average= 0.195
Ewing again gets a nice pick-me-up but this time he doesn't vault Hakeem. Shaq maintains his lead on Howard for the #2 spot but it is much less under this factor. Howard looks stellar yet again...
Playoffs!
Hakeem Olajuwon '85-'91 | Total Games= 50 | Total Win Shares= 9 | Average= 0.213
Dwight Howard '05-'11 | Total Games= 57 | Total Win Shares= 9.3 | Average= 0.198
David Robinson '90-'96 | Total Games= 53 | Total Win Shares= 8.2 | Average= 0.187
Shaquille O'Neal '93-'99 | Total Games= 66 | Total Win Shares= 9.6 | Average= 0.172
Patrick Ewing '86-'92 | Total Games= 38 | Total Win Shares= 4.3 | Average= 0.106
Will the real David Robinson please stand up! Oh? The sad tale of Robinson is that he didn't prove as other worldly when it mattered most, the playoffs. Which brings us to what makes Hakeem so great, he does bring it. Hard. His '88 Playoff performance saw a 0.385 WS/48! Dwight, again, shows up excellently here. #2 in both total Win Shares and Win Shares/48.
Subjective Factor
For this, I am going to look at awards earned during these first seven seasons.
David Robinson '90-'96 | All-Star = 7 | DPoY= 1 | All NBA 1st= 4 | All Defense 1st= 4 | MVP= 1 | Titles= 0
Dwight Howard '05-'11 | All Star = 5 | DPoY= 3 | All NBA 1st= 4 | All Defense 1st= 3 | MVP= 0 | Titles= 0
Hakeem Olajuwon '85-'91 | All-Star = 6 | DPoY= 0 | All NBA 1st= 3 | All Defense 1st= 3 | MVP= 0 | Titles= 0
Shaquille O'Neal '93-'99 | All-Star = 6 | DPoY= 0 | All NBA 1st= 1 | All Defense 1st= 0 | MVP= 0 | Titles= 0
Patrick Ewing '86-'92 | All-Star = 6 | DPoY= 0 | All NBA 1st= 1 | All Defense 1st= 0 | MVP= 0 | Titles= 0
Dwight was the least recognized as a star early on, but this shouldn't surprise any Magic fans who are used to being the underdog. Dwight's three DPoY awards and Robinson's MVP stand out amongst this group, though Hakeem is no slouch in the All NBA department.
And there you have it. David dominates the group in regular season Win Shares and accolades, but falls short in playoff success. Ewing is consistently the poorest contributor of the group in Win Shares and subjective awards. Hakeem showed that when it mattered most he played his best. What I think is conclusive is that Dwight definitely belongs in this group and this discussion, and that he is positioned as well as any of these centers were at similar points in their careers. The fact that Dwight is younger than them all should further increase optimism regarding Dwight's future impact on the league. Dwight stands as one of the best young centers of all time, with a bright future ahead of him. His #2 showing in the MVP race means the league is starting to catch up to just how special he is. Don't sleep on Dwight.