I am Otis Smith
by eltharion_doa on Jun 25, 2011 4:11 AM EDT
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PrintIt has occurred to me, over the past few months since the Magic were summarily dismissed from the playoffs, that perhaps I, or indeed any of us, could do a better job of running Orlando than Otis Smith is presently doing. With that in mind, I started to wonder what I would do...were I Otis Smith.
So I decided to figure it out properly. Firstly, I made a few assumptions. I decided that the only goal for the Orlando Magic is to win a league title. The Magic, as presently constituted, can not and will not win a league title in my opinion. I then determined that the best solution for this scenario is to blow up the team, and chase a 2012 max free agent point guard - either Deron Williams or Chris Paul. Which of the two does not matter for these purposes - I decided to assume Orlando can get one of them, if they have the cap space.
But what will the cap look like in 2011/12? There needs to be assumptions made here, too. Firstly, I assumed that the NBA gets its' way and a hard cap is implemented. I believe the most likely hard cap scenario involves a phased implementation, with a soft cap at, say, 55% of revenue in the first season, reducing to a hard cap at 53% in the second and 50% in the third. These numbers are largely arbitrary, but represent the sort of deal I believe the owners are looking for. So. That gives up cap numbers, assuming flat league revenues, of:
2011/12 - $56m (soft); 2012/13 $54m (hard); 2013/14 $51m (hard).
If league revenues increase, the numbers will increase too, but for these purposes I will be pessimistic in forecasting.
I'm also assuming that maximum salary players will be able to earn the same as they can under the present CBA - 25% of the cap each. This is a contentious assumption, as I have absolutely no idea where this is at in negotiations, but it keeps things simple. Therefore, the Magic will need to free up 50% of the cap in 2012 to sign Paulliams and re-sign Dwight. Target: $27m cap space in 2012.
I also decided to assume that, as part of the deal to get a hard cap, the owners do not manage to get any reduction in guaranteed salaries for existing contracts. However, they do manage to implement the best amnesty clause situation (for Orlando's purposes, admittedly) and can release, without salary cap penalty, two players. I then assumed the Magic will release Gil and Turk.
Without signing or re-signing anyone else, that gives Orlando a 2011 cap figure roughly $48m - already *under* my proposed new cap. It also gives Orlando the following players under contract, in depth chart configuration:
C: Dwight Howard, Daniel Orton
PF: Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass
SF: Quentin Richardson, Justin Harper
SG: J.J. Redick, DeAndre Liggins
PG: Jameer Nelson, Chris Duhon
With the cap space to acquire an $8m SF to start and a couple of veterans on 1 year minimum deals to fill out the roster. This roster - assuming JJ's option is not picked up in 2012; both Bass and Nelson do pick up their player options; both second round draft picks are maintained on minimum salaries; and Anderson is retained at his qualifying offer amount - will have a 2012 cap figure of roughly $34.64m, assuming standard raises and proportional minimums.
Which is $7.64m too much.
Clearly, we need to trade some of those 2012 salaries away. My immediate targets? Jameer Nelson and Brandon Bass. Nelson, because with Paulliams in 2012 we don't need a highly paid PG, and Bass, because Harper is more likely to play PF in the NBA than SF, and plays a style better suited to van Gundy's offense than Bass does. Plus, their combined salaries in 2012 are $11.8m, meaning trading them for expiring deals gets Orlando under the 50% cap mark I outlined before. To the Trade Machine!
This allows Orlando to acquire expiring deals who can still contribute, Hinrich as a mediocre starting PG and Delfino as a mediocre starting SF (but way better than Q-Rich, and also allowing Harper to slide to his "natural" PF spot), whilst the Hawks get a cheaper, better PG which allows them to see how good Teague can be over a whole season, and Bucks get a better, healthier forward than Gooden whilst freeing up backcourt possessions for Jennings and Jackson.
Which gives us:
2011/12 Orlando Magic:
C Dwight Howard, Daniel Orton
PF: Ryan Anderson, Justin Harper
SF: Carlos Delfino, Quentin Richardson
SG: J.J. Redick, DeAndre Liggins
PG: Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon
Plus roughly $7m in cap space to either save for 2012, or use to pad out the roster.
2012/13 Orlando Magic
C Dwight Howard, Daniel Orton
PF: Ryan Anderson, Justin Harper
SF: Quentin Richardson
SG: DeAndre Liggins
PG: Derris Paulliams, Chris Duhon
Plus two 2012 draft picks, and roughly $15m cap space left to fill out the roster - for example, it seems probable Gerald Wallace could be signed for around $8-10m per season in a new league. And he'd be perfect. Redick could also be brought back at a more reasonable amount, perhaps.
Now, I'm not saying that roster is going to win Orlando a title. Depending on who else is available in 2012, it may or may not be good enough. But I do think that's a vastly, vastly better starting place in a hard cap league than what Orlando are running with at the moment - it provides two elite players, some decent young talent and a big chunk of cap space. What more could you, or Dwight Howard, want?
(All salary cap numbers from Sham Sports. All salary cap rules, minimums and maximums from Larry Coon's cap FAQ. All exposition my own.)
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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The only problem I see is needing 2 amnesty players
I’m not sure that happens. If it does, this sure seems like a solid plan forward.
It doesn't really *need* two
Two just gives the Magic a lot more flexibility. Without two, Turk stays and starts at SF, putting the Magic over the (soft) 2011/12 cap. The proposal I outlined has $15m in room in 2012/13 so the Magic can still sign a max FA to put with Howard, it just means they have no flexibility to sign anyone else (so no Wallace or Redick returning). They might have to trade Anderson and Duhon for expirings at some point to get under the hard cap, though, if there’s only one amnesty.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 26, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Sounds alright
I’m almost certain there will be amnesty, just not two players. I’d hate to lose Reddick and Anderson just to save cap space, but if that’s the price to get Paul or Williams I’d do it in a heartbeat. Hedo will expire shortly after this time frame. We could eat him in the short term if we had to. Would prefer 2xamnesty though!
We could eat him in the short term if we had to.
He probably tastes like pizza.
"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter
by magicfaninTN on Jun 28, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking more of turkish delight
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
I Am Legend
was a much better movie. In this version, Otis Smith feeds humanity to the vampire things.
But nice post.
I don't get the whole 'pop-tart cats pooping rainbows thing,' but then, I'm old. So, there it is.
It is now confessed that Otis is eltharion_doa.
THANKS FOR CONFESSING, OTIS.
If it's lonely at the top, I'd rather be alone
cause the closest people to ya, the ones who gonna do you wrong
Good ideas overall, but
I don’t foresee an amnesty clause being established, much less two! Still, this would be an amazing scenario if it came true.
Swag City!
"Playoffs? P-Playoffs?"
I estimate there's about a 95% chance of there being at least one
It allows teams to get their cap number down without the players having to give up any money. Two is a stretch, but I’ve seen it mentioned by enough commentators that I respect that I think there’s a chance it gets done too.
The is absolutely no way that teams can go hard cap, even with a phased implementation, without being able to cut salary – and quickly. The players will never accept a straight cut, so an amnesty style release where the players still get paid but teams can lose the number off their books is the best compromise.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 26, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
This is just a general comment for everyone who doesn't think that a new CBA will contain an amnesty clause.
Why?
Why wouldn’t it? As eltharion_doa points out in the comment above, there is no reason for the players to not accept an amnesty clause. I have stated before that it is basically the best of both worlds for the players. They get to leave a likely contentious situation with the club they are with, they get paid, and they get to be un-restricted free agents on the open market, looking to join whatever team that will take them. This is the best scenario for teams like Miami who are hard pressed against the cap and cannot afford to sign anyone that great unless they agree to sign for the minimum. They can now bring in a player who was at one point good enough to earn a fat contract on the cheap. The players love it because they can potentially be paid by two teams and still play for the best possible team that will be willing to sign them.
Also as eltharion_doa points out, the league will need some sort of tool that allows their teams to get under the new hard cap, and the quickest way to do that is have an amnesty clause (or two).
So before anyone posts that they don’t consider this amnesty clause to be a reality, please first educate yourself on what the amnesty clause would entail and why it would be beneficial for both the teams and the players to have in place.
Thank you, that is all.
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
You have expanded nicely on the issue of what amnesty clause holds for the players, and I agree that it would probably be one of the least contentious issues within the negotiations.
I, however, need to caution against the narrow-mindedness which typically creeps into such negotiations. I reiterate my earlier point that while players benefit from amnesty in the short term (i.e., double dip) they would be tarnished for the long term, and it would be difficult for an amnestied player to earn the kind of salaries which he was used to earn.
I disagree.
There are essentially three types of players that will get amnesty’d:
There is the good player with the big contract on a team with a large cap number that needs to get it down, (i.e., Joe Johnson, Elton Brand)
The good player on a team that might be under-performing slightly for their salary and the team now has a little buyer’s remorse (Chicago with Boozer, Toronto w/ Bargs, Detroit with Ben Gordon, Monta Ellis)
And lastly there is the player who got overpaid and now isn’t anywhere close to his current salary (Hedo, Gil, Rashard, Brendan Haywood, Ron Artest, Travis Outlaw, Josh Childress, etc.)
That last group of guys are the ones who will get amnesty’d and not get another fat contract (hopefully) but it isn’t because they will carry the “stigma” of being labeled with a scarlet ‘A’, if you will. It will be because they simply aren’t that good anymore/weren’t that good to begin with.
The first two groups of guys are the guys that will still be able to benefit a ton from this clause because not only will they still be getting paid their big fat check from their old team, they’re still good enough to command a decent salary on the open market. And as a bonus, they now have a ton of excess cash coming in and can, if they choose, play for a team for a salary much less than they might normally accept in order to play for a contender or play in a more desirable location.
I don’t see how this cannot be a win-win for all involved. The Amnesty won’t hurt the players whom it is used on, the talent levels (or lack thereof) will.
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
Besides
Anyone who gets cut will still get 100% of their contract paid out. I can’t imagine their peers having that much sympathy with their plight if the alternative is a lockout or, worse, everyone in the league getting reduced contracts.
The amnesty just makes too much sense for both sides not to happen. The only people it “hurts” are the guys earning millions more than they’re worth – and they still get to earn all that money. Plus more!
by eltharion_doa on Jun 27, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to add this to my previous post.
I was reading some of Steve Kyler’s tweets today as he was discussing with some of the fans the possibility of the amnesty clause and what it might mean for the Magic.
He raised some interesting arguments about what they might do with it. He flat out said there is no way the Magic use it on Gil. It will be Hedo or Duhon first, depending on where the cap comes in at.
His reasoning was sound. He stated that fans need to take the basketball side out of the equation for a moment and focus on the business side. The amnesty clause is simply a vehicle to get to a below-cap number. If using it on Hedo or even Duhon’s contract gets the job done (meaning gets the team below that magic number) why would you pay more than you need to? Why would you eat 60 million worth of contract when eating 10 or 20 million will get you at or below that new cap number? It just makes more sense to do that. (Again, he stresses from a business standpoint, which is the purpose of the amnesty clause)
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
In a sad sick world that we live in
GIlbert Arenas, if he somehow proves he can still play, is still more tradable than Duhon. Some small market team, could use him for a year to sell tickets and then let his contract expire and regain the cap space they lost. Cleveland just traded for Baron Davis for Pete’s sake. I could EASILY see a team like a Minnesota, Indiana, Sacramento, Charlotte, use him for a year if he proves next season, whenever that is, to trade for him. And yes I just threw up after typing that.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
I don't necessarily agree with it either.
But, if the owners are losing money like they claim, they would probably rather only have to pay out the minimum amount possible to get under the cap threshold to a player who isn’t actually going to be playing for them.
It should be noted that Kyler also mentioned that smart, non-cash strapped teams will use this to their advantage and get way under the cap, but the clubs that are losing a lot of money will probably only be willing to eat the minimal amount necessary, immediately.
You can't reason with stupid.
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
I imagine if the teams do manage to get a hard cap up
The players will push for a pretty high “floor” too.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 1, 2011 5:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Releasing neither Turk nor Duhon will get the Magic anywhere near what the new cap will be...
$65m committed with Turk being released, not counting the draft picks or vets to fill out the roster
$73m committed with Duhon released, ditto
If the cap’s under $60m, it has to be Arenas to go.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 30, 2011 6:16 AM EDT up reply actions
There isn't definitely anything
On July 1, there is no NBA.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 26, 2011 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Derris Paulliams
Gotta love it!
A recommended fan post for intelligence and thought.
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 Stanley Cup Champions
Chicago White Sox... 2005 World Series Champions
Orlando Magic... 1995 and 2009 Eastern Conference Champions
by Mike from Illinois on Jun 26, 2011 1:44 AM EDT reply actions
Yup. Rec'd.
"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter
by magicfaninTN on Jun 26, 2011 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Out of all the trade scenarios regarding the Magic I have ever read on OPP...
…yours and eltharion’s have been by far the most thought out and worth reading.
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 Stanley Cup Champions
Chicago White Sox... 2005 World Series Champions
Orlando Magic... 1995 and 2009 Eastern Conference Champions
by Mike from Illinois on Jun 27, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
one thing i would add is resigning Earl Clark and having Harper at the 3...
Clark’s build and aggresiveness has him more suited for the 4..and with more developement on his shooting he can provide what Bass has with more upside.
I'm not really sold on Clark
But there’s no problem with bringing him back – I’ve only got 10 players signed in 2011/12 and you need at least 13. Clark could be one of them, if he’s happy to play on the relative cheap.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 27, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Mike
lol
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
No worries... anyone can post a trade scenario
…but the ones that have the greatest level of thought and reasoning behind them are the most enjoyable for me to read.
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 Stanley Cup Champions
Chicago White Sox... 2005 World Series Champions
Orlando Magic... 1995 and 2009 Eastern Conference Champions
by Mike from Illinois on Jun 29, 2011 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Well thought out post. Recommended.
The only concern I have with it is the risk of basically tanking this season (if the team takes a hit at PG and PF in order to shed salary, that would be a version of tanking imo) what would the repercussions be on Dwight Howard’s psyche? Does that give him a bad taste all year, so he opts out and refuses to resign, thus negating the potential of a Derris Pauliams signing?
If this was a task undertaken this past season (meaning the one in which the Mavericks won) I could see Dwight being mad but ultimately having to get over it because he would still have another year to be in Orlando for sure, giving you, Otis, more time to explain your master plan.
Now, I do think that if we traded Jameer for Kirk, it probably wouldn’t be a significant downgrade given Kirk’s better defensive ability and Jameer’s inconsistency, but there’s obviously no significant improvement, thus my phrasing for “tanking”.
An off-season is still probably plenty of time for Dwight to get over the fact that his team sucked and it was only for the better and to help him get a guy who he would want on his team (Derris Pauliams). But the potential there for it not to be scares me a little. Although if we don’t do this, the chance of him leaving anyway is probably just as great, if not greater.
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
Management will have to sell it, no doubt
Even “tanking” in the East, Dwight and slightly-lesser-friends should be able to get to the playoffs. And if the payoff is an all NBA point guard, hopefully Dwight will play the long game as Wade did in Miami. I like to think his ambition is not so shortsighted – that if he sees the necessary improvements being made long term, he’ll be willing to accept a slight lessening of ability in the short.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 27, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope so too
and honestly, I see something like this as the best way forward with or without Howard.
What makes you think Otis Smith is going to waive his Sleeping Giant?
It seems obvious. Because it is. But I’d bet money Otis won’t do it.
As the title suggests
In this scenario, I am Otis Smith. I’m the chef in this kitchen, baby.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 27, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I know this isn't fact or anything but...
Jarrod Rudolph from RealGM has hinted that Otis has a gentlemen’s agreement with Gil that if there is an amnesty clause, it will be used on Hedo and that Gil will exercise his ETO in 2012. The agreement was Otis would only bring him to Orlando if he agreed to exercise his option.
If that is also true, than it would be incredibly beneficial if Orlando only receives 1 amnesty clause via the new CBA. I know it seems far-fetched, so I won’t hold my breath for it, but it at least provides another avenue to reaching that salary cap level described above.
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
Otis might be able to strong-arm Gil into opting out early.
From a business perspective, he’d be foolish to use Amnesty on Hedo and not Gilbert. So he tells Gil, opt out and re-sign for a reasonable amount or else you’re cut (with pay).
Depends on how serious Gil is about playing basketball, about the “second chance” he has in Orlando.
But he strikes me as a guy who’d rather sit at home on twitter and complain, collecting 20mil a year, personally.
I think he would...
if he were still in Washington. I think it’s a different attitude with him now. Same skill level, but different attitude.
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
That would be a huge risk on Otis part.
IF you are Gilbert, how in the Hell do you turn down 20 mill a year? I mean especially if has child support and sharks to feed?
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
by Mateo9399 on Jun 27, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I honestly don't know.
But Gilbert doesn’t exactly strike me as a person that thinks the same as the rest of us.
Oh, and he’s actually already done it once before. In Washington when he signed this current deal, it was reported that Washington actually offered him a bigger contract (max deal) but he said this amount was good (slightly below max)
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
There's some difference between a million or so a year on a contract worth over $100m
And walking away from $45m to get nothing.
But if there’s one guy in the NBA who’d do it, it probably is Arenas.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 28, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
The last I read
was more of a flex cap, which is supposedly just means it will be harder than it is now, but not hard, at least not like the NFL. I loved the plan, and it could work even better with a “flex” cap instead of a hard cap.
I don’t foresee the cap actually shrinking over the next few years unless the NBA is seriously losing money, which again makes your plan that much more better. And it makes more financial sense to plan based on what you have instead of what you don’t know.
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
I don't know...
The “flex cap” that the owners proposed was shot down pretty quickly by the players. Fisher and Hunter both basically called it a hard cap with a new name.
Never been afraid to say what's on my mind at any given time of day. Renegade.
Evan: "David Polega. Banned."
http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3
http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud
The NBA is *seriously* losing money
Apparently combined losses over the league are around $10m per team. That’s a lot – $300m in a league “only” pulling $3b in revenue is a huge chunk. That’d be “going out of business sale” type losses in most other businesses.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 28, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
they are losing money
Because there are terrible GM’s who give out bad contracts. Hire better GM’s.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
That's what they say
but in this lockout negotiation, I tend to think they fudging the numbers by not including all sources of revenue in their reporting. I’m not saying they aren’t runnning a loss, but I don’t think it is upwards of $300m.
The GM’s are terrible, but the owners are the one’s that hire these guys.
I think a hard cap would be good for the league in two facets. It would make the league more profitable and induce revenue sharing at a greater %. It would also make the game more competitive as teams would really have to do their homework on putting teammates together and the Lakers as we know it, and the Heat, and the Mavericks, would no longer exist unless players were willing to take significantly less money; which is a win win for fans in both regards.
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
I don't like a hard cap.
I understand that this a business and you want to make money off it. But this is no different than any other business. You have to spend to succeed. We have owners who are willing to pay whatever it takes to win a title. It is not our fault that Minny, Clippers, Charlotte, Indy, Sacramento, etc. do not want to spend money to win a title. I would rather see better revenue sharing from the big markets, but even at that what is to say that small market owners will use that money on the teams and not put in their pockets?
With the current CBA, Orlando could do what it takes to take on a bad contract to get a great player or even just the right piece. I am sure Orlando would take Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams if it could get Josh Smith. Why wouldn’t they? A team of Howard, Johnson,and Smith can win you titles. I like that teams that want to pay can, but it is not their job to carry the little fish. And Orlando is not a little Fish.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
The NBA wants to follow the NFL model
A hard cap will allow much greater parity between big and small market teams, which will promote competition and, the NBA hopes, result in greater interest because many more than two or three teams have a chance at a title.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 30, 2011 6:25 AM EDT up reply actions
The NBAPA doesn't contest the NBA's loss numbers
And the NBAPA has unlimited access to audited financial reports of all 30 teams and the NBA as a whole. There’s absolutely no evidence to suggest the number is inflated.
The NBA already has essentially a hard cap. There is an effective limit on salaries of 57% of basketball related revenue – revenue which is not related to basketball does not come into it. About 8% of total salaries is held in escrow and given back to the owners if the players earn over 57%, or returned to the players if they do not. In every single season apart from one since the current CBA was put in place, the escrow money has been split between the players and the owners, ensuring that exactly 57% of total BRI goes to the players.
The players complaining about a hard cap is nonsense and grandstanding from a total income perspective – what they really dislike about a hard cap system is that it’ll stop big revenue teams paying over the cap to attract talent, meaning more stars will have to go to different teams to get their payday. And, of course, the NBA wants to reduce the overall amount of revenue the players are entitled to.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 30, 2011 6:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I read that they had contested those numbers
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
They have little fights about what, exactly, should be included as
“Basketball related income”, but there aren’t really substantial disagreements on that.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 30, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope
The NBA has, essentially, a set salary structure. The players get roughly 57% of revenue. If it wasn’t the players currently getting paid, it’d be other players getting more.
The root problem of the NBA is that the teams’ overheads are about $300m higher than 43% of current revenues can finance. They either need to massively increase revenues or cut costs.
Reducing player salaries is an easy way to do the latter.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 30, 2011 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions
the whole 57% to 43% is crazy anyways
Hard to believe the owners agreed to that in the first place.
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
I love it
I think the only solution for the magic is to cut salary as soon as possible and hope that we can play a huge role in the free agent market of 2012… Dwight would have to understand that this is the best option especially since he already said he is opting out at the end of the year. Plus if Dwight does leave we still have plenty of cap space to totally rebuild instead of being stuck with a team full of overpaid has beens.
The NBA needs to take a page from the NFL which is truly a system that works
and will continue to work and make money untill the end of time.
Their system works not because of a hard cap.
Their system works because only 4 channels broadcast their games. They split all the revenue from TV. That is why teams like Jacksonville and Carolina can make money. They all get the same amount from the TV contracts. Each team has their own separate TV deal plus ESPN and TNT. They may split ESPN and TNT, but the Lakers just signed a HUGE deal. If I am not mistaken $3 billion over the next 20 years. Plus whatever they get from ESPN and TNT. That is the problem with the NBA. Not the cap.
Roll Bass and War Ryno for me
The hard cap creates parity
where it is more likely that each NFL team has a shot to make the playoffs once every 6 years, which for some teams in the NBA would be a major improvement.
That may be the original or easy line of thinking but the NBA does have parity, just not at the top, the bottom seeded playoff teams have been more interchangeable than most would be willing to admit. However it the top some may argue with. Which it is hard to argue against when the West has produced a total of 3 different teams since the 99 season for the Finals, The Spurs (4), the L*kers (7), and the Mavericks (2). Compare that to the NFL and neither conference has been so selective since 99 – AFC: Titans (1), Ravens (1), Patriots (4), Raiders (1), Steelers (3), Colts (2)
- NFC: Rams (2), Giants (2), Buccaneers (1), Panthers (1), Eagles (1), Seahawks (1), Bears (1), Cardinals (1), Saints (1), Packers (1)
now of course if you reduce the time frame to 2003 the AFC has only prodcued the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers (Colts twice, Pats/Steelers 3 times) while the NFC has been a revolving door with winners and losers.
The East in the NBA from 2003 has produced 6 teams, allowing for a little more parity than the AFC in the NFL. Those 6 teams are the Cavaliers, Celtics (2), Heat (2), Magic, Nets, and Pistons (2).
The thing that most fans, I hear, say they love about the NFL is that every season their is a legitimate shot their team can make the playoffs, even though the percentage of teams that make the playoffs in the NFL is lower than the NBA (NFL 6/16 to the NBA 8/15).
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
The problem with expecting partity from a hard cap in the NBA like it does in the NFL...
….is that in the NBA one player makes a humongous difference unlike the NFL. Yes, great talent matters in the NFL too, but great players have not historically taken their team to new levels without high levels of talent on 2 sides of the field. You need a lot of talent to win in the NFL, and, eventually, you’ll have to pay that talent. In the NBA, role players are very interchangeable more than some realize.
You can’t expect the NFL system to work in the NBA when the 2 leagues work and operate on 2 different entire planes of universes.
None of this mentions Mateo’s point (an astute one) that it’s easy for the NFL to revenue share TV pies because it’s all national TV revenue and local revenue doesn’t make much of a difference (although it is being argued over).
The NBA shares national TV revenue now. What it needs to figure out is how to share local TV revenue too.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
true
they are two very different games. I Kind of contradicted my self in my own statement anyways, since I found out that Parity in the NFL isn’t much better than the parity in the NBA, I think that the NBA just carries this image of it the L*kers and Celtics, then the Bulls, and everybody else. And we wouldn’t even be mentioning the Bulls if it wasn’t for the Jordan. I think the major culprit is that Dynasties, or consecutive successes, are much easier to develop and maintain in the NBA than they are the NFL. So the perception of parity is not there, but the reality is that it is there just as much (at least very close) as the NFL.
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
However, a good reason for a lack of parity in the NFL is the quarterback position.
Rule changes have legislated the position to be more important than ever, so it is crucial to have a star at the position. Of course, star quarterbacks are as hard to find as true stars in the NBA, and so if you have one, you’re pretty set for winning. Just like in the NBA, if you have a Kobe or MJ or Big Three, you’re pretty set to compete at a high level.
The salary cap and the franchise tag, though, have made it easier for non-traditional teams to develop the sort of dynasty that you only expect out of LA or Boston or Chicago in the NBA. For example, in an NBA-style environment, Peyton Manning probably would’ve fled Indianapolis a long time ago, and the Pittsburg Steelers would be in far too small a market to consistently field teams with high talent across the board.
Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
by MoveThoseChains on Jul 5, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes and LA would've gotten a team by now as well problem
glad that hasn’t happened … yet.
Dwight Howard - "My Gosh, what is that smell?"
Otis Smith - "That's the smell of success my man."
Dwight Howard - "No, it smells like a used Arenas... filled with... Turkoglu..."
Otis Smith - "You know, success smells like that to some people." (turns and walks toward a crowd of fans)
Fan#1 - (Disgusted) "What is that? Smells like a turd covered in burnt hair..."
Otis Smith - (Tries to act casual and walk away) "Woah, what's that smell?"
This is a great point.
But people forget that the NBA only has 5 positions on the court for 1 team. That makes the Jordans, Bird’s, Magic’s, Kobe’s, Dwight’s, LeBron’s etc etc etc that more important. (I hate LeBron which is why he is last on this list.)
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I dont' know about Manning fleeing Indy.
He’s already very marketable in Indy as is. Part of that is he’s a Hall of Fame white QB. So, I don’t know it really matters a great deal.
If any analogy to the NBA exists, it’s Dwight. Dwight doesn’t suffer for endorsements in Orlando.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I didn't have time to read all the comments, so sorry if my points are elsewhere.
But…I just don’t see there being two amnesty clauses, if only because if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. Your 2012-2013 roster is already incredibly thin on the wings…now instead of having some extra cap space to fill in the gaps, that money is still being used on [an incredibly horrible by then] Turkoglu or [if there is a god, but only a god that actively hates me and all Magic fans] Gilbert Arenas. It’d be like the Heat, only without a third star and somehow even less depth. And we saw how that worked out for them.
I applaud (and rec) you for your work, and I’m impressed you were able to even find any rays of sunshine at all. But 1) you still had to take some artistic liberties, and more importantly 2) you’re not actually Otis Smith, so it’s unlikely he’ll come up with a plan that’s even 25% as smart as yours.
Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
by MoveThoseChains on Jun 29, 2011 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
No doubt the 2012-13 roster is thin
But remember, in a hard cap system, every other team in the league will have to work under similar tough restrictions. For example, the Heat would probably have to trade one of their “big 3” to get under the 2012 cap. Bosh, James and Wade will cost Miami over $52m in 2012-13 – there’s no way the Heat could fit 10 players into the other $2m under my $54M hard cap.
But, as you say, I’m speculating at this point.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 30, 2011 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions
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