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Orlando Magic Player Evaluations: Hedo Turkoglu

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The narrative surrounding the trade which brought Hedo Turkoglu back to the Orlando Magic held that Orlando, which let Turkoglu leave in free agency following its defeat in the 2009 NBA Finals, realized it had made a mistake in not retaining him, a mistake it hoped to rectify by re-acquiring the veteran forward, along with Jason Richardson and Earl Clark, from the Phoenix Suns. That's not entirely true--the Magic wanted Richardson, and the Suns agreed to part with him if Orlando agreed to take on Turkoglu's outsized contract--but it made for a nice story. After all, Turkoglu enjoyed the best year of his career in Orlando just three seasons prior, a season in which he won the league's Most Improved Player award and stood as the biggest All-Star snub, at least according to TNT analyst Charles Barkley.

Turkoglu turned 32 in March, and his skills have declined in age, even though very little of his game is based on athleticism. His role didn't change from its previous iterations in coach Stan Van Gundy's offense, as he served as a secondary ballhandler who created matchup problems at 6-foot-10, particularly when running pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard. No, instead what changed is the extent of his involvement in the offense. His usage rate dipped from a high of 17.8 in his MIP season to 13.5 this go-round, which masked how well he played at times.

The key phrase there is "at times," because Turkoglu was as maddeningly inconsistent as ever.

Star-divide

Hedo Turkoglu
No. 15
Small Forward
Points Per GameRebounds Per GameAssists Per Game
11.44.65.1
Points Per 36Rebounds Per 36Assists Per 36
12.14.85.4
PERRebound RateAssist Rate
13.57.824.0
FG%3FG%FT%
44.840.466.7
eFG%TS%
52.955.0

All statistics in this table from Turkoglu's player page at basketball-reference. Career-high statistics highlighted in gold; career-worst statistics highlighted in silver.

Turkoglu can be a fun player to watch, what with his uncommonly good passing skills and impossible fadeaway jumpers, heaved from his chest, as though he's an 8-year-old trying to shoot a regulation ball on a 10-foot hoop for the first time.

He can also drive you to pull your hair out with some of his decision-making, and I'm not really talking about his passes here. Van Gundy lamented Turkoglu's shot-selection soon after his return, and never did really get Turkoglu to curb his bad habits. Van Gundy explained the issue thusly after a playoff loss to the Atlanta Hawks:

"Right now, I have not been able to get Turk to shoot the ball when he's open," Van Gundy added later. "I can't get him to do that. I think he fairly consistently passes up very good shots to take very tough shots, which is what he did at the end, too."

Apart from the reluctance to take good shots--which, in turn, prompted Turkoglu to take bad ones--he actually enjoyed a solid return to Orlando, all things considered. It comes down to passing: nobody on Planet Earth has ever delivered the ball to Howard in better position than Turkoglu has in his career, be it on the pick-and-roll, a lob pass, or a simple post-entry feed. He and Howard complement each other well.

The brilliant passing doesn't limit itself to Howard, as the pick-and-roll between the two men also produces good looks for their teammates, particularly whichever power forward happens to share the court with them. Brandon Bass flashes to the open mid-range space created when his defender sags to help on Howard, while Ryan Anderson can scoot out to the three-point line. That high pick-and-roll is the Magic's bread-and-butter play, and it works so well in part due to Turkoglu's proficiency in running it. Indeed, Turkoglu's passes out of the pick-and-roll produced 1.295 points per possession and led to scores 54.8 percent of the time. Both those figures rank first in the league among players who made 150 such passes this season, according to Synergy Sports Technology. One can make a pretty compelling argument that Turkoglu, not Jameer Nelson or Gilbert Arenas, is Orlando's best passer.

There's also the shooting. Quietly, Turk led the three-point-driven Magic in three-point shooting this season, connecting on 40.4 percent of his 3.8 triple attempts per game. That sort of perimeter marksmanship makes his free-throw-shooting woes all the more bizarre, as he shot just 66.7 percent on freebies with Orlando this season; previously, he had shot no worse than 70.8 percent on foul shots in his career.

If all Turkoglu did, in terms of shooting, was take threes, he'd have had a brilliant year. But his poor decision-making inside the arc, plus his shoddy foul shooting, costs him in our evaluation. There's also the matter of his inconsistency, as he often struggled to string more than two or three good games together before turning in a 3-for-14 stinker or two. Finally, we can't forget his miserable playoffs against Atlanta (9.2 points per game on 37.1 percent True Shooting), however much we'd like to.

Grade: C+

If Turkoglu maintains his three-point accuracy, picks his shots more judiciously, and bounces back at the foul line, he'll continue to be a solid starter for Orlando. Not worth the more than $30 million he's still owed, but solid enough. Because of his overlooked playmaking, I'm less down on Turkoglu than most other folks are, I gather.

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I'm not sure...

…if having a better shot selection is something he can improve for the next season. He did shoot some ugly shots this year, especially in the playoffs. Nonetheless, I agree Turk is a solid starter for this team and plays very well alongside Dwight. Let’s all hope he gets in shape for the next season.

by FFMagic on Jun 2, 2011 9:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Mental shape than anything.

He actually was in pretty good physical shape.

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Jun 2, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Beat Up Rocky

He’s always shot ugly shots, even on our ‘09 march to the Finals. The expectations heaped on him returning to Orlando were too much for him. As good as a finisher as he was that year for us, he still wasn’t great and couldn’t compete against more athletic players and teams. In this year’s case it was the Hawks. Let’s hope he atleast breaks through his shooting slump inside the arch and at the line. 2 things we’ll desperately need next season.

by simplybrad74 on Jun 2, 2011 10:43 AM EDT reply actions  

agree. We just expected too much and forgot he always put up bad shots

Turk somehow managed to get 4 yellows – which surprises me. I am less down on Turk now. (maybe because I have finally made peace with the fact that we are in the offseason already).

by isum on Jun 2, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was way down on Turk

but then you reminded me of his passing, but then you reminded me of his horrid shot selection at times and I was down again, but then you reminded me that hey, he wasn’t here the whole year and power forward like Ryan Anderson on the floor, there’s a weakside three waiting to happen or a high percentage close range shot. So … I’m not sure where I’m at, because he can’t play defense on guys like LeBron or Josh Smith or Loul Deng at all (see how I just named the other SF from the top 4 east teams.) That’s not including Carmelo … we need Barnes back … him or Pietrus or someone with that kind of scrappy defense if we plan on winning a Championship

Get out of my House!

by ECFIVESTER on Jun 2, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions  

agreed..

but that is why we have Q Rich (:. I love his defense. Van Gundy needs to play him more.

by Exigence on Jun 3, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh Hedo...

How frustrating you can be.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Jun 2, 2011 11:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Hedo Turkoglu has always driven me crazy.

Usually I just end up yelling at him like he’s in the room with me. I can’t imagine what he makes Van Gundy do in the locker room.

The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy

by cgsimone on Jun 2, 2011 11:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Major reason why the Magic are not good

Even worse, Turk’s a major reason why Dwight may be forced to leave. All in all, Turk’s presence is a total failure.

by CaliFlorida on Jun 2, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Do you consider him an asset?

 
What about whether he can be expected to win his matchup against better teams?

I see no basis to say Turk’s production relative to his role and roster impact amounts to anything other than a large net negative. Notwithstanding his sometimes pretty passing.

by CaliFlorida on Jun 2, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I gotta agree with Evan on this one

Although i hated the way he was playing. he’s still a good player. Turk has the play-making skills we need but for some reason is wasn’t there that much this season. now if he can come straight out of that shooting slump of his he’ll be the player he was 3 yrs ago.

by Lil J on Jun 2, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again, great writeup.

I guess I hadn’t realized just how good Turk has been at creating plays for others; all I remembered was the awful shot selection. The contract is terrible, and the trade still gave up too much – it is terrible that Turk has ended up being the best player we got in that swap – but I definitely wouldn’t use any possible amnesty clause on him. I probably would even give him a B- if it weren’t for the horrendous playoffs. Here’s to hoping that SVG can talk him into taking better shots next season.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 2, 2011 3:02 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

his greatest limitation to me is intangible

He often, and especially during the playoffs, looked adrift and indifferent. For a point anything to make me cringe so much while leading the offense in SPITE of the obvious mismatches, experience and passing ability he employs is why he’s so aggravating to watch. At least Gil has blown ACL’s to blame.

by hnic14 on Jun 2, 2011 3:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Ball

We need a Jameeracle

by bluenwhite on Jun 2, 2011 3:52 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Whatsup Jaydee

"We're not there yet, but we're going somewhere," Johnson said. "And we're going to Brooklyn. We're not going to contract. We're going to Brooklyn."

by Atronic on Jun 2, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shard's knee injury changes everything, BUT...

if not for that injury, I would’ve absolutely preferred the Magic to keep Lewis, Carter, Gortat and Pietrus. Carter wasn’t playing anywhere near as bad as he did with the Suns before the trade. I find it hard to believe that the pre-trade team would’ve gone down in the first round.

I was not the only one thinking the trade was bad news. Ancient history now.

Magic Fan since the 1992-1993 Season.
Caracas, Venezuela.

by North of the South on Jun 2, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

My opinion on the trade was made clear from the very beginning.

I was not a fan of either. I thought it was made way too soon, and we got back way too little for most of our best assets. That’s as nice as I can put it.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Jun 3, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

They were an awful two trades that annihilated any assets we had while getting garbage back in return.

That’s as nice as I can put it.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 3, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes on Lewis for Arenas - Definite NO on the Phoenix trade

The Arenas for Lewis trade I have always believed would eventually prove to be a good move in the end – because of the contract clause that allows Arenas to opt out 1 year earlier than Lewis’ nearly entirely guaranteed contract would. As much as the trade has been slaughtered in the press and on fan forums, what is often not discussed and really can’t be talked about publicly but it is pretty obvious Arenas gave Otis a promise to opt out and re-structure his deal. Otherwise no semi competent person does it, regardless of friendship.

That to me was much bigger than anything a seriously declining Lewis could have brought this season – so I thought that was a good fiscal move by Otis – to give himself some wiggle room where there was none.

But the Phoenix trade – I threw up a little in my mouth, when I heard that we moved our best asset (Gortat) and our best perimeter defender (MP) – who had really stepped up with big shots in big games – for two past their prime players (1 on a bad contract and the better of the two on an expiring – essentially a lost asset at seasons end unless a S-T luckily falls our way)

by MagicLA on Jun 3, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't stop laughing.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Jun 3, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just when I think people can't get any more delusional...

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 3, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you are saying that Otis Smith is less than semi-competent?

because if you look at what I wrote – I said there is no way any half decent GM makes that deal unless there is some sort of ’"off the record deal" in place.

From media reports we hear Otis and Arenas are “friends” – but are they really that close?
Are they friends enough that Otis would risk his future livelihood and the future of the franchise by taking on that enormous risk that Arenas was without him having some sort of safety net?

I don’t buy it – no GM is that incompetent – But I gather from your statement then you are saying you have your doubts about Otis’ relationship fogging his judgment causing him to make one of the most irresponsible and incompetent trades I can think of.

by MagicLA on Jun 3, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Arenas not opting out = Otis is incompetent

simple as that – word it how you need to – but I believe “the clause” is what was being dealt. There was simply no basketball upside in the trade (injury, contract value and performance were major issues) and on top of that Arenas had too many major public relations issues for a franchise notoriously conservative with their image.

The only reason for the Magic to make the trade was the opt out clause. I can not see the Devos family giving the go ahead without a verbal agreement from Arenas; nor do I believe Otis would have made that deal without some sort of safety net in place.

I do not think that Otis is a great GM but I certainly don’t think that he is that incompetent either (maybe I am delusional)… I think he made a financial move with insider information that no one can talk about publicly so the effect and reasoning can not be judged without that knowledge.

by MagicLA on Jun 3, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Otis IS incompetent, and he really IS blinded that much by his love for his not-son.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 3, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, you'd rather believe that Otis isn't that bad of a GM...

Instead of believing that a professional athlete who is notorious for burning through cash won’t opt out of a very lucrative contract when he has a fraction of that value on the open market. Good lord.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Jun 5, 2011 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

restructured contract - he doesn't lose the value of his contract

His opt out clause comes into effect at the exact same moment as Dwight’s opt out clause (July 2012). At that time he will be owed 2yr/$43M (20.8M/22.3M). Because of the option it is legal for his contract to be restructured. The annual amount towards cap space can be drastically reduced to allow the Magic cap flexibility to sign another player, for example the contract can be extended to a 5yr backloaded deal where the first yr can be as low as $7.5-8M.

Rashard Lewis’ contract had no clause and his contract expires July 2013 – 1 year too late to impact the resigning of Dwight. Not only that, but because of it size it is virtually unmovable as an expiring contract in the summer of Dwight’s option. A team would have to be able to absorb in trade a $23M annual salary for Rashards final year and on top of that send $23M worth of assets out – good luck finding a team willing or even able to that can do that.

by MagicLA on Jun 5, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I used that term

because that’s the language used in the media for Richard Jefferson / Spurs situation – and it seemed accurate enough to describe the scenario in this relaxed context .

I guess i shouldn’t have assumed that its common knowledge that NBA contracts under the current CBA can not be renegotiated. So yes, obviously its a brand new contract drawn up – but the principle concept is that the terms of the adjustment are guided by the previous contract. The “clause” provides a window for renegotiation otherwise not available.

by MagicLA on Jun 5, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

That still doesn't make you right.

You’re more delusion than Arenas is about his basketball abilities if you think Arenas is giving back any money. He needs desperately needs that money, with all of his life troubles…and sharks.

Or, more succinctly, good lord.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 5, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Life troubles?

I guess you must be a really good personal friend of Gilbert’s that he’s opened up to you and confided his personal problems and how he wants to deal with them.

And you must also have a pretty darn good relationship with his accountants and lawyers that they give you access to his financial statements? and give you insight into his business and financial planning.

If not, please tell us how it is that you have so much knowledge about his bank account and personal insight onto what he wants out of life?

by MagicLA on Jun 5, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because of his messy separation proceedings, most of that information is now public record.

And you better believe he’s giving back money, because he’ll be lucky to be making the minimum salary once his current contract expires. Why would he make his exorbitant contract expire a year sooner? It’s not going to happen.

Sources here and here.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 5, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good Lord

For the millionth time – nobody is saying he would be opting out and walking away from his due income.

- he would be opting out and resigning a new contract that amortizes the value of the current contract over 4-5 years as opposed to 2 years. Really c’mon now, its not that complex of a concept.

by MagicLA on Jun 5, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

and your reference links are

The Reliable source: Roxanne R. and Amy A. share gossip from inside the beltway and beyond

and

Above the law: the legal tabloid

by MagicLA on Jun 5, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're welcome to search the internet for the actual original documents.

And by welcome, I mean please do, because while you’re doing that, you won’t be embarrassing yourself on this site.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 5, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any GM that signs Arenas for more than the NBA minimum is begging to be fired.

Opting out is a gift that you don’t give back. Period. You’re living in some fantasy world.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Jun 5, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I don't understand how opting out is such a difficult concept.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Jun 5, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've been following your discussion

and I just still don’t understand why he’d do what you’re proposing.

Here are my questions:

1. What’s his motivation to do this restructuring? Either now, or if it was previously agreed upon, when he was with Washington?

2. And are you saying that the Magic are going to keep him on for another 4-5 years at 43 million? Or are you saying he’s going to command that on the open market?

"Basketball is a team game. But that doesn't mean all five players should have the same amount of shots." - Dean Smith

by Redfield on Jun 5, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good lord.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Jun 5, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

The ever popular but frustrating Turk...

His skills have not eroded in the 3 years since his MIP season here. Only his lack of effort at times has increased. He’s always been a bit of a slacker. He doesn’t put in a ton of gym or practice time. He still downs a couple slices of pizza before tip off. He still takes quarters and sometimes entire nights off. And from what I gather he a bit of a party animal but I won’t further speculate on those rumors. Anyone remember the game he called in sick for while with the Raptors only to later be seen drunk at a karaoke bar? These are, and have always been Turk’s issues. Nothing has changed. He is our best passer, he’s going to take dumb shots and occasionally make them, he’s our wacky gunslinger and that is what why he’s so popular despite being so terribly frustrating. I don’t expect any of that to change. Except for that horrible free throw shooting! That’s got to improve!

Danger Zone

by IsisAgentArcher on Jun 3, 2011 2:09 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Ridiculous how Turks free throw percentage was within 10% of Dwight's

and Dwight’s FT percentage has been increasing, im betting that next season he’ll get it up to at least 75%.

I'm a guy

by normajean on Jun 3, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Turk's playmaking was impressive

In 56 games with the Magic, Turkoglu had 26 games of at least five assists, including four games with at least 10 assists.

In 18 of the 56 games though, Turk shot only 36.4% or less from the floor.

In 15 of the 56 games, he scored at least 15 points, with 4 games of 20+ points, but in 23 of the 56 games, he scored in single digits.

Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 Stanley Cup Champions
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by Mike from Illinois on Jun 3, 2011 5:45 AM EDT reply actions  

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