We're Probably Too Hard on Gilbert Arenas

by Evan Dunlap on Apr 3, 2011 8:00 AM EDT in Commentary

Readers of this blog reacted with indifference, or positivity, when I posted the news yesterday that the Orlando Magic's Gilbert Arenas (flu-like symptoms) wouldn't travel with the team to Toronto for tonight's game against the Raptors. "I'd rather have Lewis not playing for 2 years than Arenas playing for 3," said eltharion_doa. Fellow commenter cgsimone agreed, writing: "I do approve of Gilbert Arenas when he’s not playing. It helps immensely." My guess is that Gilbert draws more ire from fans of his team than any other backup point guard in the NBA. And no, I haven't forgotten about Jonny Flynn.

I understand Magic fans' distaste for Arenas, to a degree. His individual statistics are staggeringly awful: 7.7 points in 21.4 minutes, 33.5 percent shooting, just 3.4 assists to 2.2 turnovers. Despite having the lowest field-goal percentage on the team, he takes more shots, per-minute, than everyone but Dwight Howard.

You can see how all these deficiencies in his game, especially relative to his $61 million contract, might aggravate Magic fans. Off the court, some fans have expressed displeasure with Arenas' launching of an apparel line mid-season and his saying "I sit so much [at home]; it's all I do." The idea is that he should spend more time rehabbing his knee and less time watching 24 on his iPad, I suppose.

After three knee operations, nobody expected the Gilbert Orlando acquired in December to resemble the Gilbert who averaged 29.3 points and 6.1 assists five years ago. By the same token, nobody expected him to play like a destitute man's Jannero Pargo, either.

And yet, despite his poor individual play, the Magic have done better than okay with Arenas on the floor this season, which is where I wonder if we've overstated the extent to which Gilbert hurts the team.

According to basketballvalue.com, the Magic outscore their opponents by 6.05 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, compared to 5.64 when he sits.

By a slim margin, the Orlando Magic are a better basketball team when Gilbert Arenas is on the floor than when he isn't.

It's not a case of the Magic's being a good team--and let's not lose sight of the fact that Orlando is one of the league's better teams--boosting Arenas' on-off stats, I don't think: Marcin Gortat (since dealt to Phoenix) and, weirdly, Brandon Bass, have worse on/off efficiency differentials, despite the fact that both players are far more productive individually.

The difference goes further than that, though: four of the Magic's ten most-used five-man units this season feature Arenas, and three of them have absolutely blown the doors off Orlando's foes (note: "blow the doors off" is a scientific term). The Magic's three best units, of their ten most-used ones, all have Arenas at the point. Here's the data in a table, with the numbers cribbed from basketballvalue:

Unit	Mins	ORtg	DRtg	Eff. Diff.
Gilbert Arenas, J.J. Redick, Hedo Turkoglu, Ryan Anderson, Dwight Howard	97:41	118.23	96.46	21.76
Arenas, Redick, Jason Richardson, Anderson, Howard	88:23	124.86	101.74	23.11
Arenas, Redick, Turkoglu, Anderson, Brandon Bass	87:07	94.01	97.01	-3.00
Arenas, Redick, J. Richardson, Anderson, Bass	53:42	112.96	92.66	20.30

Those four fivesomes have logged 326:53 of floor time this season, or almost seven full games' worth of action, and three of the four have dominated; at least the one that hasn't performed as well isn't getting clowned.

I'm well aware that these groups may be succeeding despite Arenas' presence, not because of it. What I'm getting at is maybe Magic fans need to relax a bit with the Arenas vitriol. The evidence indicates he's not killing the team.

This post required more research than usual, just to say, basically, "Gilbert Arenas doesn't hurt the team as much as you might think, you guys. Honest!" I can't tell if that fact that I found this conclusion worth sharing says more about Gil, Magic fans, or my perceptions thereof.

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All four lineups also have Redick and Anderson

So let’s all remember that showing Gil playing well with these units doesn’t mean that we should overreact and say he should be playing with the starting 5. So far, the numbers haven’t been as good with the rest of the starting 4.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 3, 2011 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

To further support this.

Almost all of the opposing units for Arenas-Redick-Turk-Anderson-Howard are playing with the backup center in the game.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 3, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

"After three knee operations, nobody expected the Gilbert Orlando acquired in December to resemble the Gilbert who averaged 29.3 points and 6.1 assists five years ago".

If “nobody” is inclusive of Otis Smith, what does that leave the Magic fans with? Blame it on Smith’s blunder and move on? I, honestly, don’t think that the fans are too hard on Arenas, and yet we all hope that he would be able to perform a lot better under the spotlight in the play-offs.

by Matt1325 on Apr 3, 2011 9:13 AM EDT reply actions

I am quick to say that Arenas does get quite the amount of vitriol and some of that is deserved...

but I believe that he does receive more than others. Plus, any time Evan writes a piece like this, the named player goes off…so crossing my fingers that Gil plays like some remnant of the Agent Zero we all knew…

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by Bonafidebrother on Apr 3, 2011 9:18 AM EDT reply actions

I'm probably the biggest defender of players

and nicest sports fan I know. But I genuinely don’t like watching Gilbert play. There are times though where he comes up with a big shot or a great pass that makes me settle down a bit. There is still a talented basketball player somewhere in that shell. But before he makes a great pass there are 3 really stupid turnovers. Or before he makes that big shot he goes 1 for 20.

One thing I noticed when he first came aboard was that the lineups were affected positively by his presence because he would push the tempo more than Jameer. He’s slowed down a bit since then, but I still think he wants to push the ball more.

At one point I thought having him at SG with Jameer would be a good option since Gil could play more as a pure scorer, but I admit that I hate that lineup. Honestly, I think Arenas could be a decent facilitator rather than a scorer but that flies in the face of everything he’s been his entire career.

I really want him to be better. I don’t want the old Arenas, as I think a player like that would actually be bad for the team. I’m hoping for a veteran and smart Arenas that uses his basketball IQ and skill set to get our guys good shots and occasionally call his own number. I think that Arenas could flourish. I’ve just seen no evidence that it will ever happen.

The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy

by cgsimone on Apr 3, 2011 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Shocking…doa doesn’t like Gilbert.

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by KingJafi on Apr 3, 2011 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

You like a guy who submarined one franchise with his antics...

And is now shooting 33.5% with basically a 1.5:1 assist to TO ratio for another? Because I am not partial to that kind of stuff from players that I need to cheer.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Apr 3, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Evan, quick question

Does Orlando play at a faster pace with Gil? Very interesting. After watching him a lit lately, only thing I have noticed is he is a terrible shooter. He may be a high volume shooter, but he is not a black hole a la a Carmelo Anthony. The offense never stops with Gil, and I think that is why we have the stat we have here. Despite being a high volume shooter, he keeps the offense flowing. He has fantastic court vision and he and JJ have excellet chemistry. JJ is very important to the team and to Gil since that is who he finds the most.

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Apr 3, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

Gilbert Arenas=Grant Hill

It would be better to have Rashard than Gilbert from a productivity standpoint. Plus, he would come off the books a year sooner. And what makes people think Arenas can “hit the switch” and turn it on in the playoffs when he hasnt shown anything all year? Aside from drafting Dwight over Okafor, what has Otis Smith done to build an effective roster around D12? Gotta get rid of Otis. He’s had 7 years and couldnt build a championship team around the best center in the game.

by mizz3 on Apr 3, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Finals once, where you could make th argument the better team did not won, and two ECF appearances?

Right not championship material.

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Apr 3, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry but Arenas is NOT Grant Hill

Despite his performance with the Magic’; Grant Hill is still a defensive force and a smooth shooter; a steady contributor for the Suns.

Arenas has shown what he has left… and it’s not much. He SHOULD be showing everyone around the League his Basketball IQ… dazling us with his well-thought passing, shot-selection and dribbling skills. He’s not.

I understand… his knees are shot; there’s nothing he can do about it (and I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt on his rehab efforts).

What I DO expect is something in the order of 10-12 points per game; 5-6 assists… constant. I also expect him to stay in front of his man on defense. Sorry to say; he can do NEITHER…

And we have four more years of… THIS!

No… Arenas is NOT Grant Hill; in this or any Parallel Universe.

by manny55 on Apr 3, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Missed point

I meant Orlando is chained to Gilbert Arenas’ contract just like they were to Grant Hill’s. Arenas is paid like LeBron, but plays like LeCrap. Obviously Grant Hill (even at 45) > Gilbert Arenas.

by mizz3 on Apr 3, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I thought that folks who said that last year was an undrachieving season

were crazy but I don’t think the same way about fans giving heat to Gil and Ots and don’t forget about the Duhon. When Arenas plays good and controls the tempo it only shows how important the PG spot is for this team (yes, shocking news, I know). For my part I’ll wait for the end of the season to judge Gil but I don’t really believe the “he needs this summer to get in shape” crap.

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by 44792212 on Apr 3, 2011 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

if he needs this summer to get in shape

why just wait until this summer to do the trade? It’s not like anybody else in the league will take him.

by isum on Apr 3, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That's been my biggest befuddlement in this whole deal.

Where was the urgency to trade for Arenas…

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Apr 3, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Was Lewis on Howard's "don't like" list?

Was Lewis giving less than full effort to the point of frustrating Howard? Just asking, ’cause it would explain the urgency to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. Dumping Vince and his half-effort has been mentioned as one reason for the trades.

Arenas’ contract was probably the only one in the NBA that could be traded for Lewis’.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 4, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed on that last point

And it’s widely rumored that Dwight really did not enjoy playing with Vince. But I haven’t heard the same thing about him and Rashard.

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by Evan Dunlap on Apr 4, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that the management had a video dedicated to him...

And he was welcomed into the locker room after the game probably says otherwise. If there were tensions between Rashard and Dwight (or anyone else), that probably doesn’t happen.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Apr 5, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Good points.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 6, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

and the magic overtime show with d&g after the trade

that’s fun to watch.

by isum on Apr 7, 2011 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I noticed this the other day while I was trying to justify Arenas's contributions

We have one of the better bench units in the league with Arenas/JJ/Anderson and one of J-Rich/Hedo and Dwight.

This is enough for me to maintain the belief that Arenas can help us win as soon as this year, because he already has.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 3, 2011 12:07 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, our win total this year has eclipsed the past two seasons.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Apr 3, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, no matter how I feel about Arenas

I hope he feels better. The flu sucks. Get well soon.

The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy

by cgsimone on Apr 3, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

Me too...

Whatever feelings I have for him as a player, does not carry on to him as a person. I wish him the best; a speedy recovery and better health in the Playoffs.

by manny55 on Apr 3, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Anyone who wishes bodily harm on the dude is crazy.

Unless it’s his baby momma. She probably wants bad things to happen to him.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Apr 3, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Oooh, quoted on the front page

I wouldn’t care if Gil was an expiring contract this year or paid like Q-Rich. I don’t dislike Gil - I hate that having him more or less ruins the team’s chances of being great for two years; the two years we needed to be great to take advantage of Dwight.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 3, 2011 4:51 PM EDT reply actions

Money talks.

Most of the vitriol towards Arenas is because we are stuck with him for several years at a very high cost that could eventually make us lose out on somebody better to replace him. His general lackadaisical play and attitude so far (complaining about sitting all the time, even at home) shows that he is just here to sit out his contract and collect the dough, like he was in Washington. There really wasn’t a need to trade for him, since we had 3 point guards on the roster before we traded from him. Yes, he is better than Duhon as a player but he hasn’t shown that he is that much better that it was worth the sacrifice to have him as a backup point guard. I know that I would rather have Lewis coming off the bench than him. But, hey, he is here for a while so there is a chance he could turn it around, get in shape and try to strengthen his knees as much as he possibly can, and have a decent couple of years before his contract is up and he has to look for a new pay day. Will it happen? Who knows. Things just aren’t looking to be headed that way right now tho.

by INTOTHEMEATGRINDER on Apr 3, 2011 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

For comparison

Here’s the top four Duhon lead units:

+19.09 in 42.53 minutes
-9.40 in 32.68 minutes
+19.30 in 32.02 minutes
-9.36 in 30.62 minutes

So, overall, Duhon lead units tend to outscore their opposition by about ten points per 100 possessions, and have a sample size of nearly three full games. Are we then to conclude that Duhon is overall a positive presence?

I think what the numbers show is that Dwight Howard is so good that even with terrible point guard play, he can defend and score enough to make most units very positive, especially when up against opposing teams’ reserves.

Are we then too hard on Duhon? I don’t think so.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 3, 2011 7:42 PM EDT reply actions

But Duhon's positives only come with the starters. Lots more negative numbers with bench players.

It doesn’t work very well when your backup PGs only positive lineups come when he plays with the starters.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 4, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

To clarify.

Arenas without Howard produces more plus numbers than Duhon without Howard.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 4, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

That's not true

Duhon’s best unit was him, Carter, Lewis, Bass and Gortat. He hasn’t played enough since the trades to have sufficient data with any unit to make fair judgement possible.

And both of Arenas’ best units come with Dwight on the floor. With Dwight he’s about +45 over two units; without he’s +17 over two units.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 5, 2011 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions

You list a lineup that has 30.02 minutes of time. So, while your point about post-trade sample size is well taken, pre-trade sample size leaves something to be desired, too.

Post trade, by my count, Duhon has been on the floor without Dwight for over 100 minutes in 19 different lineups and only 4 of those lineups have plus numbers (7, 4, 3, & <2 minutes).

Gil, post trade, however, looks like this for his top 5 non-Dwight lineups:

Minutes | Overall Off – Def Rtg
87.12 | -2.99 (Arenas – Redick – Turkoglu – Anderson – Bass)
53.7 | 20.3 (Arenas – Redick – Richardson – Anderson – Bass)
17.7 | 8.09 (Arenas – Redick – Richardson – Clark – Anderson)
16.82 | 16.03 (Arenas – Redick – Clark – Turkoglu – Bass)
16.75 | -14.52 (Arenas – Redick – Clark – Turkoglu – Anderson)

Take what you will from this. imo, Arenas lineups are doing okay without Dwight and Duhon’s are not.

More lineup crunching is probably in order before drawing too strong of a conclusion, so at this point, this is just on the surface analysis.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Apr 5, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions