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Why are the Magic struggling?

I'm trying to wrap my head around this and it's just giving me a headache. We have added some new players, but our core is about the same. So far, we have not been hit too hard with injuries (knock on wood). So what gives?

 

I decided to compare the team for the last 3 seasons after 52 games and the full season stats. After the jump, maybe we can find some answers.

Star-divide

So here are the stats for the last 3 seasons after 52 games:

2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011
W-L 39-13 35-17 32-20
PTS/G 101 -10th 102.8 -6th 100.1 -11th
OPP P/G 94.4 -6th 95.3 -4th 94.7 -7th
Pace 92.3 -21st 92 -18th 92.1 -16th
OFF RTG 109.2 -11th 111.4 -4th 108.2 -11th
DEF RTG 101.9 -1st 103.3 -3rd 102.5 -5th

 

Currently, the expected W-L record for the Magic should be 36-16 so they are underperforming a bit. The offense and defense has slipped a bit but I don't think we need stats to show us that. So I wanted to dig a little deeper.

 

I wanted to see how the players individual PER numbers looked like. I like this stat because it captures everything in 1 nice number. I understand its not perfect, but its like OPS in baseball. Just a good snapshot of a player's value.

Howard 25.4  Howard 24  Howard 25.3  Howard 25.3
Lewis 16.8  Lewis 14  Lewis 11.1  Bass 16.7
Turk 14.8  Carter 17.1  Carter 16.2  Turk 13.2
Jameer 20.6  Jameer 15.5  Jameer 15.6  Jameer 15.6
Lee 10.7  Barnes 13.6  Richardson 9.9  Anderson 21.4
Pietrus 11.6  Pietrus 11.9  Pietrus 8.3  Arenas 9.9
Alston 15.6  Redick 15  Redick 12.9  Redick 12.9
Gortat 17  Gortat 13.9  Gortat 13.7  Q.Richardson 9.9
A.Johnson 10.3  Anderson 18.1  Duhon 5.7  J. Richardson 13.3
142.8 143.1 118.7 138.2
15.86 15.9 13.18 15.35

So a few things about this:

  • What I did was gathered the 9 guys that either received the most minutes or were key parts of team at different parts of the season. So thats why I used Alston instead of Bogans, and Anderson instead of Williams or Johnson.
  • The last 2 numbers at the end of the PER column are the sum of all the players PER and the average. Some people don't either like sum or average, but I think it gives you an idea how bad or good the teams were/are.
  • The last 2 columns are this year's team split into 2; 1 before the trade and 1 after the trade.
  • I highlighted a few players because they really stood out. A 10 in PER is a league minimum; 15 is league average, and 25 is a star. We all can see Dwight is the man but look at how high Jameer's is in the 08/09 season. All the starters were playing very well and no one was below a 10. Look at how bad this team was before the trade. 3 rotation players BELOW league average and Lewis was down to an 11! They had to change because this was not a good team. But in total, this is the worse team in the last 3 years.

I wanted to see if there was anything else that I was missing. So I used the season comparison tool on basketball-referance.com to check:

                                                                                    Team Opponent
Season G eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA eFG% FT/FGA  
2008-09 82 0.52 13.4 24 0.251 0.465 0.209  
2009-10 82 0.536 13.6 24.6 0.246 0.477 0.205  
2010-11 52 0.52 14 26.2 0.222 0.483 0.226  

 

I apologize but when I copeied this, it didn't quite paste it the way I wanted to. But I wanted to highlight the Team FT/FGA, Opponent eFG%, and Opponent FT/FGA (the first 4 are the Magic, next 2 are opponents). We're not getting to line enough and we are fouling more. Teams are shooting better against us also. If Dwight is the only one shooting free throws, we are in trouble. And because our perimeter defense has been worse, there will be more fouls. Turk seems to be #1 culprit, when he is beat he will just foul the guy instead playing defense. Also, the Magic lead the league in technicals with 80; Boston is second with 69. Thats 80 free points that we have given to the other team.

You know what, there are no answers because it all comes down to the players playing better. Jameer has to be better than average. Turk needs to try harder on defense. But everyone knew these things before, I was just trying to visualize and show the dropoff in the team from 08/09 to now.

I would love feedback on this because this is my first post involving advanced stats. I know its more of the "basic" advanced stats, but I'm trying to wrap my head around all the progress in the stat game. I used basketball-referance.com for all the data. Go Magic!

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

Comment 35 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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08/09 for Nelson

Was always going to be an anomaly, I think – it’s just not realistic to expect him to shoot like consistently. But he can be more aggressive than he’s being.

I think this team is searching for an identity since the trades. Hopefully it finds it.

by eltharion_doa on Feb 8, 2011 3:47 PM EST reply actions  

Then that is a concern

because when Jameer is on, this is a highly effective and efficient team. If he can just be a little better, maybe 17 or 18 in PER, that could just be the difference.

"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.

by L Magico on Feb 8, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice.

The FT/FGA really stood out to me. This season, the Magic are drawing less FTs than ever (probably because of their observed unwillingness or inability to drive to the basket) and allowing more opposing FTs than ever (because the defense is turrible). Lo and behold, the former identity of this team was great PnR play (which involves driving and either finishing, kicking out for open shots, or drawing fouls) and great defense. Both of those things seem to be gone, which is why this team looks lost.

Otis Smith, what you've just done is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard of. At no point in your rambling, incoherent trades were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having witnessed it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

by MoveThoseChains on Feb 8, 2011 4:16 PM EST reply actions  

great work L Magico, thank you for this

I agree with MoveThoseChains. Unfortunatly, even though our P&R and offense could come back, our defense won’t be anywhere near the ’09 team.

Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.

by 44792212 on Feb 8, 2011 5:46 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for all the research that went into this Fanpost

Recommended.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 9, 2011 4:39 AM EST reply actions  

I think it's the system, as well as some of the players..

We need a mixture of inside plays (not just Howard), penetrating to the basket, not just waiting behind the 3pt line for the three. We also must MUST play some defense. I think the players we have just aren’t committed to playing D. And for that, we just won’t win anything. Lose to great teams, even losing to teams we can beat.

It will be a roller coaster ride of losing to good teams, winning/losing against weak teams, and losing in the first round if changes aren’t made.

by REP96st on Feb 9, 2011 3:18 PM EST reply actions  

Good post.

A lot of slight differences, and they all add up to paint a good picture of what’s going on with the slip in play.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 9, 2011 7:33 PM EST reply actions  

Great post. Seriously.

I do think a focus on driving and finishing is key. Teams are keen to the fact that when Meer, JJ, and Turk drive they are looking to pass first. Drawing fouls is an important part of the game (we know that best, given Dwight’s importance to every minute of the game [he was +30 the other night, for christ’s sake]) and can change the outcome of at least a handful of games every year.

And come playoffs? It’s an invaluable weapon.

http://borntohustleroses.blogspot.com/

by fwedo on Feb 9, 2011 9:55 PM EST reply actions  

Nice analysis.

"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter

by magicfaninTN on Feb 10, 2011 1:32 AM EST reply actions  

It's all Dwight.

Not that he’s doing anything wrong — it’s just that with Bass out, he can’t get in foul trouble, which means he’s being extra-careful on defense and not providing the post presence the team needs.

But we’ll get Bass back, and we’ll probably pick up another big man who gets bought out, and this will all be over soon enough. Nothing to panic over.

You mess with the 4-out/1-in, you get the Horns.

by 3.3seconds on Feb 10, 2011 4:41 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed

I think the upcoming All-Star Break, with the Magic having six consecutive days off, will do a lot of good for the team as they prepare for the stretch run.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 10, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I sure would not mind if they used it to get Brad Miller

IF the Magic are going all in, then go all in. Brad Miller would be an excellent backup.

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Feb 11, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

As much as I hate Varejao...

I’d like us to get a poor man’s version of him as the back-up center, albeit with less stupid hair and stupid flopping. Or maybe Gortat was already that guy…

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 11, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Varejao's cut back on the flopping. He's among the league's best defensive bigs

One national writer asked me a few months ago, just after the trades with Phoenix and Washington, if I’d be willing to trade J.J. for Varejao. I needed a second, but said “yes.” Another writer answered “yes” immediately.

by Evan Dunlap on Feb 11, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

If Varejao wasn't injured, he'd be perfect.

Though i don’t know that I’d trade JJ, just because JJ is equally crucial to us. (Also because Varejao’s a little undersized to play center.)

You mess with the 4-out/1-in, you get the Horns.

by 3.3seconds on Feb 11, 2011 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

He's fine against almost every center in the league.

There is only one Dwight, and there aren’t any Yao’s anymore, and Shaq plays a limited role. He rebounds, defends the post and PnR really well, and doesn’t need shots. It’s exactly what the Magic would need… if he was someone the Magic could acquire and if he was healthy… and if he didn’t have that dumb hair.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 12, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

That sucks could really have used him

What about Jamison? I know I made fun of Cleveland for getting him, but that is because they thought he was going to be the second best player on their team. But as another PF, thus allowing Anderson and Bass to give more minutes to Dwight breathing? What are your thoughts?

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Feb 11, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok

Magic would be better off going with Clark if they wanted to use Bass and Anderson at center from what you are saying. Assuming another option does not happen

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Feb 11, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I want Mbenga

Or as even called him, “Congo Cash” which would easily give him the best nickname on the team. NO is always looking to reduce salary and they don’t even use the guy. He was their 3rd Center last night as they instead wanted to go with Aaron Gray and David Andersen to guard Dwight. When Okafor gets back, he’s in a suit again.

"But I'm still down with OPP."

http://www.twitter.com/JShannonhouse3

http://www.twitter.com/Amway_Get_Loud

by JeffShann3 on Feb 12, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Even if Jamison was good

He’s barely a PF, let alone a center. We need a guy who can provide a post defensive presence. We don’t need a scorer, we don’t need a rebounder (though that would be nice.) The #1 thing we need is a guy who can guard the lane when Dwight is out.

(And I still think this wouldn’t be half as much of a problem if Bass was back. Just saying that because is WASN’T a problem before Bass got hurt.)

You mess with the 4-out/1-in, you get the Horns.

by 3.3seconds on Feb 11, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

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