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Dwight Howard: MVP?

Since the day the Orlando Magic reshaped their roster with two trades, franchise center Dwight Howard has taken a tremendous step forward in establishing himself as a legitimate MVP candidate. In 34 games since those trades, Howard is averaging 24.5 points, 15.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.1 blocked shots, on top of 60.9 percent shooting from the floor and a 62 percent mark from the free-throw line.

Prior to the trades? His numbers stood at 21.5 points, 12.1 boards, 1 assist, 1.1 steals, and 2.3 blocks. His shooting? 57.8 percent from the floor and 55.1 percent from the line. Because the trades robbed the Magic of Marcin Gortat, Howard's backup, he's playing more now than before. Three whole minutes more, in fact, which makes the fact that he's added three points and three rebounds to his per-game averages so impressive.

Were Howard to post those numbers over the course of a full season, he'd be in some elite company. Indeed, only Moses Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Bob McAdoo have ever averaged at least 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks in a season. They're all Hall-of-Famers.

Last week, I wrote the media and NBA fans still underrate Howard, especially offensively. Some of the numbers here appear to support that claim. Howard has never placed higher than fourth in MVP voting, but he's certain to fare better this season. Only LeBron James has a comparable MVP resume, but because of the unpopular way he handled himself in free agency, he may not have the media who vote on the award on his side.

The same narrative-based MVP voting that's sure to turn some voters away from James will turn them toward Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose. He can't match Howard's defensive impact--nobody, apart from Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics, can hope to--but his team will surely top Howard's in the standings, and his supporting cast is less impressive than Howard's. He'll garner plenty of votes, though my own opinion is the Bulls' turnaround has more to do with the improvement coach Tom Thibodeau represents over Vinny Del Negro, his predecessor.

Regardless of whether or not Howard takes home the MVP award, it's clear that he's almost beyond reproach as a player. After this season, fewer people ought to take seriously the loud, benighted minority who continue to decry Howard's offensive game.

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IF we are to assume his play stands at this elevated level,

then I think Rose is the bigger threat for MVP. Voters love players who dribble and drive to the basket, new up-and-comers, and the Bulls will most assuredly finish ahead in the standings.

But overall play has to go to Howard this year. Take LBJ or Rose out of their teams and the only thing dramatically altered is the offense. Dwight effects both sides of the court.

http://borntohustleroses.blogspot.com/

by fwedo on Feb 26, 2011 5:12 PM EST reply actions  

I agree 100%

There is no question in my mind that Dwight Howard is the league’s MVP. No one affects the game as much on both ends of the court as he does. Not even close. Teams have to gameplan tweaks to both their offensive and defensive strategies based on his presence on the court. There just aren’t any other players you have to do that for. None.

Furthermore, while I’m not a Lebron fan at all (can’t stand the guy), but I at least understand why he should be considered for MVP. What I do not understand is the push for Derrick Rose to be MVP. I just don’t get it. It’s like at some point in November ESPN decided that’s who should get it so the talking heads just repeat it ad nauseum without thinking about it.

For the season Rose is averaging a whopping 1.7 points per game over Dwight but taking 6.5 more shots to do it. Rose also averages fewer steals and more turnovers. The only place Rose can best Howard is his 8 assists per game. However, that’s only 10th in the league for assists while Dwight is 2nd, 2nd, and 5th for rebounds, field goal percentage, and blocked shots.

Even if you don’t think D12 should be MVP, there is just absolutely no logical way to argue that Rose is more deserving of that honor than Howard.

The plural of "anecdote" isn't "data."

by EnnBee on Feb 26, 2011 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

Rose and Howard play two completely different positions, so it's foolish comparing their stats

The impact Rose has made on the Bulls and their improvement speaks for itself.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 26, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying he's not a good player

His scoring isn’t really better than Howard’s and what does he give you beyond scoring?

Furthermore, I would say that Thibodeau has a whole lot more to do with the Bulls improvement than anything Derrick Rose does. Again, I’m not saying he’s not an excellent player, I just don’t think it can be realistically argued he should be MVP.

The plural of "anecdote" isn't "data."

by EnnBee on Feb 26, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I think all of us who have posted so far agree that Howard should be the favorite for MVP right now

…and I would hope everyone would agree that Rose at least merits MVP consideration somewhere in the top three or four because of his overall statistics, his improvement as a player, and the overall success of his team.

What does Rose give the Bulls beyond scoring? Well, at age 22, he’s the unquestioned leader of that team, and he is the only player in the league to be in the top ten in scoring and assists.

Obviously, Rose’s defense has nowhere the impact on the Bulls like Howard’s defense has on the Magic, but Rose has made significant improvement in his defense from his first two seasons, and is far from a slouch on D; the fact that he outscored and outplayed Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Tony Parker in a recent stretch shows that.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 26, 2011 7:51 PM EST up reply actions  

To me, it's LeBron and Dwight at the top

With Rose a distant, distant third. But sure, he’s there, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won it based on LeBron backlash and the fact that most voters, I believe, still consider Howard as a defense, only guy.

by Evan Dunlap on Feb 26, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I am almost certain Rose will win it, and of course why not?

I mean, he turned in ANOTHER MVP performance last night with 17 points on 19 shots with 4 assists and 3 turnovers.

Just looking at the last 5 games on his game log: 43% shooting (with 18% from 3 point range) and 8.2 assists against 3.4 turnovers. Yet, I just heard Jeff Van Gundy say he is absolutely the MVP and has done more than anyone. Talk about a joke.

The plural of "anecdote" isn't "data."

by EnnBee on Feb 27, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't agree that Rose is "absolutely the MVP".

However, cherry-picking one game or just his shooting percentage from the last 5 games isn’t a worthy counter-argument. 8.2 assists against 3.4 TO’s is not a terrible ratio either. As the #1 scoring threat on his team, his assist potential isn’t going to be as high as someone playing with, say, Kevin Durant, or Paul Pierce/Ray Allen, or Amare, or Wade/Bosh. His assist ratio will likely go up as Boozer becomes more integrated into the offense, and as Noah gets healthy again as another option as a roll man to dish to.

His TO ratio is only bested by Chris Paul as far as elite PG’s is concerned, while his Usage rate is only even approached by Russell Westbrook. His TS% is at 54.0% while being a 6’3" guy that defenses key on as much as anyone this side of Dwight Howard, which I consider more of something to be impressed with than criticized for.

He’s worthy of MVP talk; he just shouldn’t be the favorite.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 27, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

+1

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 27, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not "cherry picking" stats, it is a fact

Let’s see where Derrick Rose ranks among point guards in various categories this year (the number of people in each category vary based on the number of “qualified” players for each stat).

Scoring: 1 (of 42)
Assists: 10 (of 45)
Turnovers: 40 (of 54)
Steals: 22 (of 43)

Aside from being first in scoring there is NOTHING about that list that suggests “MVP” – and we’re only comparing him to point guards!
 
Look, I like Derrick Rose, he’s a terrific player and I’d love to have him on my team. However, like many players I like, his play does not warrant the overwhelming media push for him to win the MVP. It just doesn’t.

The plural of "anecdote" isn't "data."

by EnnBee on Feb 27, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course it doesn't deserve the push as MVP favorite.

As I said, he shouldn’t be the favorite, but he should be in the conversation. Also, those numbers are lacking context. His combined raw offensive production (combined points and assists) are all necessary for a team that has largely lacked a consistent #2 guy. That will likely change as Boozer continues to round into shape, but we’re talking about up to this point.

Those TO numbers are misleading. As I stated before, his TO rate is second only to Paul when looking at top-tier PG’s, while his usage rate is far higher than any PG other than Westbrook. When usage rate goes up (especially when it’s above 30), you’re likely to see huge dips in efficiency. However, Rose has managed to maintain average shooting percentages while having a low amount of TO’s for all the possessions he uses. Again, all this while having the most defensive focus of anyone in the league maybe besides Dwight, and for a team that’s been more successful than Dwight’s so far.

I would put Rose as my 3rd choice in MVP so far, behind Dwight and LeBron (not sure of the order of the top 2 yet), just to be clear.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 27, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Even when Rose has a poor efficiency game...

…like he did against Milwaukee, the opposing defense still has to key in on him and focus on him because he is so dangerous, which opens things up for his other teammates.

Rose’s 24.9 points per game and 8.1 assists means he’s responsible for over 41 points a game for his team; I think only James comes close to that.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 27, 2011 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a good article that even highlights more of Rose's underrated playmaking.

http://hoopspeak.com/2011/02/beyond-assists-why-derrick-rose-is-a-more-efficient-playmaker-than-you-think/

Basically, Rose is one of the best in the NBA in assisting on 3-point shots (a result of the D collapsing on him and the shooters getting open), and that’s with Chicago being in the lower half of 3’s attempted. It raises his scoring production values for the team even higher than that 41 points a game.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 28, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Good stuff... thanks for the link

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 28, 2011 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

ESPN decided Rose should be in MVP contention?

I suppose the fact that Rose significantly outplayed top PGs Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Tony Parker – and led his team to victory in those games – in a recent stretch has nothing to do with Rose being an MVP candidate.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 26, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Howard should be the MVP favorite

…for all the reasons stated in the post.

Derrick Rose should be second ahead of James, because look at how much the Bulls have improved as a team and look how much Rose has improved as a player, and look how much Rose is doing for that team.

Of course, Thibodeau deserves a lot of credit for the Bulls’ improvement, and he should be a frontrunner for coach of the year. The Bulls also made some nice acquisitions during the off-season, have three solid players in Noah, Boozer, and Deng, and very good team chemistry. Without Rose though, this team would be in the middle of the pack somewhere instead of contending for the East’s best record.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 26, 2011 5:23 PM EST reply actions  

Two horse race between Howard and Rose.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rose get the nod because his team is ahead in the standings.

by modano9 on Feb 26, 2011 5:32 PM EST reply actions  

I was going to write a Fanpost...

…on this same subject. But I’m not sad I was beaten to the punch. Hubie Brown, who I think knows basketball (if not a bit grandiose), said that “Dwight Howard in the last 16 games is averaging 26.5 and 15 rebounds, which hasn’t been done since…” If any non-All Star runs the point for Chicago, they would still win 45 games, easy. Any other center for the Magic-40, maybe. Dwight has been the MVP the last 6 weeks….

When you arrive at a fork in the road, take it. (Otis took it!)
Yogi Berra

by mike in munich on Feb 26, 2011 6:29 PM EST reply actions  

You're analysis of the Bulls is off.

They have been playing with a injured roster all season, and Rose has been fantastic.

http://borntohustleroses.blogspot.com/

by fwedo on Feb 26, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Bull.

Never said that Rose isn’t good, even great. But Defense-if a team buys in like the Bulls have-needs athletes. This they’ve always had. But which team has benefited the most from their main guy, the Bulls or the Magic? If you think the Bulls-please explain. Without Dwight, we’d be wallowing with the Bucks. Without Rose, the Bulls might still be the 6th seed.

When you arrive at a fork in the road, take it. (Otis took it!)
Yogi Berra

by mike in munich on Feb 26, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

And I forgot about the "D"!!!

When you arrive at a fork in the road, take it. (Otis took it!)
Yogi Berra

by mike in munich on Feb 26, 2011 6:29 PM EST reply actions  

So last night was Wade's turn to put up the high scoring in the 'Heatles'

When was the last time someone other than Dwight top-scored for the Magic?

To me I’d be surprised if he wasn’t the MVP given his level of performances; if he can keep it up at this level, there is no competition IMO. Defensively, people aren’t even talking about DPoY because it’s such a given.

by RL Magic on Feb 26, 2011 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

LeBron is one of three post-merger NBA players to put together a 25/7/7 season

Jordan and Bird each did it once. For LeBron, it’s his career average, and he’s done it 5 times. Until he stops being the most valuable regular season player in modern NBA history, I don’t see how anyone can be ahead of him.

That said, Dwight’s 23/14/2 is extremely impressive as well. Only six players in post-NBA merger history have averaged at least those numbers for a season (Shaq 3x, KG 1x, Kareem x1, Olajuwon x3, M. Malone x1, and Dwight). Furthermore, only one other player has accomplished it since 2000 (around the time the NBA started shifting to a smaller, less inside-dominant game), KG in 2003.

Dwight’s numbers this season are better than just hall of fame worthy, they’re all-time exceptional. However, that’s par for the course for Bron; he remains in a category by himself as best Swiss Army knife of all time. While I’d love to see Dwight win an MVP (and there’s a very real shot that he can, as long as the Magic don’t collapse around him), it would feel less like an accomplishment and more like the voters punishing LeBron.

Weoejuwejhdjwe!
Twitter

by Chekhov's Spread Gun Option on Feb 26, 2011 9:11 PM EST reply actions  

Dang, I didn't specify

LeBron is currently averaging 26/7/7 this season, so this is one of the five. It kinda sounds like I was pushing a career achievement there, but I’m not.

Weoejuwejhdjwe!
Twitter

by Chekhov's Spread Gun Option on Feb 26, 2011 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with you that LeBron has the best numbers. And if he was anywhere else he should win.

But he has Wade an Bosh. Dwight has SVG and Ryan Anderson. So I could put someone like say Jeff Green in Miami and while the record would be worst they would still have Wade and Bosh and would be a great team. If I were to put Brook Lopez on the Magic, well it would be bad. This is why leBron should not win ’MVP. He has two elite players. Dwight has only an elite coach.

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Feb 26, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Worst=worse

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Feb 26, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Just curious.

Why Ryan Anderson as an example?

by Memphissleek on Feb 27, 2011 12:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Because he's probably been the next most consistent player to Dwight since the trade?

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 27, 2011 2:04 AM EST up reply actions  

He has too much help

The award is “most valuable” player, not “best” player.

by eltharion_doa on Feb 27, 2011 4:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Even if you interpret it as "best player"...

It is still a toss up between Dwight Howard and Lebron James.

If you put every player in the league into a draft those 2 are the first 2 taken no matter what. The #1 might change depending on the first picker’s philosophy, but I would wager that Howard would be taken first the majority of the time. I would also wager that Derrick Rose wouldn’t go in the top 5.

The plural of "anecdote" isn't "data."

by EnnBee on Feb 27, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd because "loud, benighted minority" is a fantastic literary turn-of-phrase.

Nice work as usual, Evan.

I guess that's the way the whole durned human comedy keeps perpetuatin' itself.

by Redfield on Feb 26, 2011 9:37 PM EST reply actions  

The Broadcast or "Mainstream" Media Might Consider Dwight

because they see him as a future Laker. This isn’t right, but it is the real world. Once they see Howard as a potential big city dude, they’ll give him his props. Shaq didn’t get MVP props here. He won it in 2000 when he was a Laker, even though he took this team to the finals in ’95.

by MagicPhan on Feb 26, 2011 9:56 PM EST reply actions  

I dont know about that one.

I mean, Nash=Phoenix, twice. James=Cleveland, twice. Duncan=San Antonio, Garnett=Minnesota. All small cities. Plus, Duncan is easy to overlook being he doesn’t have much of a personality. So, it’s hard for me to agree with location.

by Memphissleek on Feb 27, 2011 12:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Under no realistic scenario will Dwight end up a Laker.

I used to think he would but now I realize he wouldn’t have any leverage to force a trade or S&T to the Lakers since they’re in cap hell for the next few years. Management will tell him, “If you want to play for the Lakers so badly, sign there for the MLE, BAE, or vet’s minimum.” However, the Clippers, Nets, or maybe the Celtics could all be possible destinations should he decide to leave. Since his options are dwindling, I’m liking his chances a little bit better of staying here though.

by GameManager on Feb 27, 2011 8:45 AM EST up reply actions  

It should be D12

And it’s not even close. Look at all the other candidates, and they either play with other all stars that take the heat off, or like in Roses case, play beside solid players (Boozer 19/9, Noah 13/11. Deng 17/6). The second leading scorer for Orlando is j-rich, and he averages 13 as a Magic player. D12 is the only star power for the Magic, and he’s carried us to a potential home court advantage in the playoffs. The other candidates can sit and their teams will still have enough fire power to win.

by Jimmys on Feb 26, 2011 11:26 PM EST reply actions  

Is it safe to say Dwight's a lock for a third DPOY?

No one has ever won it three times in a row (Ben Wallace won it 4 times in 5 years and Dikembe won it 4 times in 7 years). Would that fact get in the way of him winning it again?

And if he does indeed win it again, will that be the excuse not to crown him the MVP? Voters would see that only MJ (‘88) and Hakeem (’94) have won both awards and would freak out at the thought of putting Dwight’s name next to theirs.

Not only are Dwight and Lebron the top two contenders for MVP this season (my slight edge to Lebron), but they may be the only two players in this era who have a chance of winning the MVP and DPOY in the same season.

FEAR THE MEER!

by bandrewg08 on Feb 27, 2011 1:43 AM EST reply actions  

KG and Dwight are really close in impact on D.

But Dwight’s gotta take the advantage due to his athleticism.

FEAR THE MEER!

by bandrewg08 on Feb 27, 2011 7:38 AM EST up reply actions  

You don't have to convince me

But if the Celtics finish top 4 in the NBA in record without a clear MVP candidate – which they almost certainly will – I think there will be a big push in the Boston media to get Garnett the DPOY award, which might very well influence a lot of the people who don’t really pay attention to the league as a whole.

by eltharion_doa on Feb 27, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

This just in: Michael Wilbon still underrating Dwight Howard.

His top5 for MVP: Lebron, Rose, Kobe, Durant, Wade.

Laughable. (He picked Rose)

by MagicMark on Feb 27, 2011 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

Oi vey.

"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07

by slickw143 on Feb 27, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

wow

http://borntohustleroses.blogspot.com/

by fwedo on Feb 27, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

He's also a Bulls fan.

Worth keeping in mind.

EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter

No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

If Omri has 12 games with 85+ TS% (20+ mins only) on the season, I will send RikSmits a slice of Cherry Pie with real Californian cheese pasteurized locally in Washington state.

by pookeyguru on Feb 27, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Wilbon’s pushing Rose because that’s his boy, and everyone else is starting to realize that LeBron is still playing as well as he ever has and Bron’s gaining a lot momentum in the MVP race. I don’t know why Kobe and Wade are on that list though. Durant should be there, but not above Dwight.

Bron
Howard
Rose
Durant

That’s my four, in order. Nobody else deserves a mention. Except for maybe Blake Griffin’s dunks, because those are valuable to the NBA brand.

Weoejuwejhdjwe!
Twitter

by Chekhov's Spread Gun Option on Feb 27, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

The final voting will probably be those four, but not necessarily in that order

James is having a terrific season on both ends of the floor, no doubt, but I think Wade may take some MVP votes away from James.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 27, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilbon is a Chicago area native and went to Northwestern

…so he is going to let his personal bias show for Chicago teams.

Even though Derrick Rose is my favorite athlete to watch in any sport, I cannot say in good conscience that he deserves the MVP over Dwight Howard, who is dominant on both offense and defense.

To not even mention Howard as an MVP candidate… wow.

Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC Conference runners-up
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Champions
Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions

by Mike from Illinois on Feb 27, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

What is funny is that he said he had him number two in his MVP list after the Heatles vs New Avengers game

He threw me off completely. He might have done this weeks ago, still no excuse, because the Griffin video accepting the award was from All-Star practice. Still. Dwight should be one. My MVP ballot
1. Dwight Howard
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. LeBron James
4. Chris Paul
5. Derrick Rose
IF you laugh at my number 2 guy, watch Portland and tell me where they would be without him.

Roll Bass and War Ryno for me

by Mateo9399 on Feb 28, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Doesn't matter where they would be without him. The fact that half their team has been chronically injured the last two seasons is why they aren't that good.

They had as high of a ceiling as anybody but were destroyed by injury. He is not a superstar by any stretch of the imagination.

Mine would be:

1. Dwight
2. Lebron
3. Rose
4. Paul
5. ?Dirk?

by MagicMark on Feb 28, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

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