On What's Best for the Orlando Magic
by Evan Dunlap on Dec 28, 2011 11:18 PM EST
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If Dwight Howard leaves the Orlando Magic, be it by trade or free agency, the team prefers to stay competitive rather than rebuild, Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported Wednesday. The Magic "would not hold out for youth and draft picks as the league-owned New Orleans Hornets were ordered to do in the Chris Paul sweepstakes." Instead, Stein says, citing sources, want any team trading for Howard to send "multiple established veterans who can keep the team competitive." The Atlanta Hawks offered five-time All-Star swingman Joe Johnson and gadget forward Josh Smith for Orlando's future Hall-of-Fame center and "felt like they were making some semblance of progress before the Magic shut down talks," Stein says. That's the sort of package Orlando might be seeking.
Reading Stein's report reminded me of the refrain Otis Smith, Orlando's President of Basketball Operations, has used throughout the Howard trade drama. "Our objective is to win a title and protect this franchise," he said at a press conference in early December. He repeated that sentiment just moments later, saying "We're gonna continue to put the best team on the floor to win an NBA title."
Smith's goal, in other words, is to do what's best for the Orlando Magic, with Howard or without. Keeping Howard is, obviously, what's best. But what's the right course of action if Howard leaves? The mission--do what's best--stays the same. At issue is what precisely "best" means.
Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated writes the Magic plan Stein outlines in his report makes little sense. For the forseeable future, Lowe contends, the path to the NBA Finals in the East runs through the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls. Further, he says, no package of players--be it laden with veterans or one instead filled with youngsters and draft picks--for Howard will put Orlando on the cusp of a championship with its current roster minus Howard, save for one which nets the Magic Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.
If you accept the idea that Howard leaving slams shut the Magic's championship window, regardless of what they get in return, then it's clear that adding veterans is precisely the wrong move for them to make. Yes, a team that routinely wins in the mid-forties and contends for a playoff berth might draw a crowd to Amway Center, and attendance is indeed one of the reasons Stein says the Magic prefer to win now.
But Orlando ought not aspire to be the mid-2000s Washington Wizards team, the one which featured a core of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, Antawn Jamison, and DeShawn Stevenson. In the 2004/05 season, the Wizards went 45-37 and advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the first time in 23 years. In the three seasons after that, they won 42, 41, and 43 games and were eliminated in the first round each time. They eventually dismantled that team, as Magic fans well know, as Smith acquired Arenas from Washington in an ill-advised move last December.
One may point out the Wizards eventually scored a first-overall draft pick, which they used on stud point guard John Wall. But they only got that pick in the first place because they unloaded the core members of that expensive, veteran-laden, mediocre club. Which is what Orlando would be if they accept a package including, say, a high-scoring swingman in his early 30s and a reasonably competent center.
The best Howard trade Orlando can make--and, as Lowe says, "rading a true top-five-level superstar is a losing proposition either way"--is the one which nets it several draft picks, along with at least two young players who've proven productive in the early stages of their careers. If they can unload the contracts of Chris Duhon and Hedo Turkoglu in the process, even better. Rebuilding won't be pretty--in Wall's first season, Washington lost 59 games, for example--but with the right cap management and the right coach, the team could return to elite status sooner than one might think.
The bottom line? If and when Smith decides to trade Howard, he needs to reach for the dynamite, not the duct tape.
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This-ie-this-this-this. Rec'd.
I don't get the whole 'pop-tart cats pooping rainbows thing,' but then, I'm old. So, there it is.
People
always seem to want young teams, but the fact is that most championship teams have an extremely veteran core. I don’t think a team has ever won a title with a plan like this. I’m not saying it is the wrong idea, but it is a gamble that could fail miserably.
What a crappy spot we are in, thanks Otis!!
I would like to see the Magic try to add one more person that is on Dwight’s wish list. But, before they sign this super star/wish list person they should lay down the BEST contract the Magic can offer to D12 and ask him to sign it. If at that point he still wants to be traded then we will know that he would walk no matter who we bring to the team and at that point I would TRADE HIM for the best package we can get for him.
Magic should go for younger talent/draft picks instead of taking on large contracts that handcuff them AGAIN for the future.
So basically, as long as Otis is here and has no change of heart, we're doomed?
Great. Well, I guess I’ll just enjoy watching the Magic for now, before we lose Dwight.
Dear John
Magic, sometimes I hate you nearly as much as I love you. But if you trade Howard for veteran players that make the team’s ceiling the second round, we’re taking a break and seeing other people. Mediocre teams are the most boring. As a fan the culmination of every season is seeing which overly hyped team (that you hate) gets to knock you out of the playoffs this year. ugh
Call me when your experiment fails and you end up actually rebuilding towards actual relevance and an actual chance to win a championship.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Dec 29, 2011 1:42 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
yeesh
short-sighted management to appease a octogenarian owner with no overarching philosophy of success, swinging wildly for a quick-fix in an ill-conceived plan to put fannies in seats. tracy mcgrady for steve francis, kelvin cato and cuttino mobley all over again.
bleh.
otis smith really has a duty to the team to resign before making this kind of trade, but he can’t, because his record of mismanagement the past couple seasons will preclude him from ever obtaining a position like this again.
what a mess.
lets hope for a great campaign in a wacky season along with laker, nets and mavs implosions that may compel dwight to stay regardless of the manifest incompetence and buffoonery recently displayed by ownership and management.
or trade dwight to kahn for love & derrick williams.
by Half-man Half-gortat on Dec 29, 2011 2:43 AM EST reply actions
I can see both sides of this
The best teams with the expection of OKC, have not developed talent. What’s the chances of that happening again. It’s nice to cherry pick examples of good young teams, but how often do those fun to watch young teams become championship contenders. The young guys get anxious when they hit their mid-twenties like their biological championship clock starts ticking. I really don’t believe John Wall is retiring a Wizard.
Getting veterans doesn’t have to be a bad thing. I know we’re in a bad situation with contracts right now, but we can become one of the teams that “steals” and feels entitled to the best talent. That’s why I’m hoping LA goes on a serious losing streak after Bynum comes back.
I do not think that is accurate.
The theory here is that the best teams in the league have not developed the talent that makes them the best teams. Let’s break this down.
We’re going to analyze this giving preference to players drafted by that team but also players developed by the team from a young age should also qualify under the stated criteria.
(In order of last year’s record)
Chicago Bulls – Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah
San Antonio Spurs – Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, DeJuan Blair
Miami Heat – Dwayne Wade, Udonis Haslem
Dallas Mavericks – Dirk Nowitzki, Jose Barea, Jason Kidd (technically)
Los Angeles Lakers – Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher
Boston Celtics – Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins
Oklahoma City Thunder – Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, James Harden
Orlando Magic – Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Marcin Gortat
Denver Nuggets – Nene, Arron Afflalo, Ty Lawson
Portland Trailblazers – Lamarcus Aldrige, Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum
So there are the top ten teams from last year. Notice that almost all of the primary contributors of these teams were drafted by these successful teams. In fact in every single case the best player on that team was drafted by that team with the possible exception of the Miami Heat and Lebron James.
Now let us look at NBA Championships and the best players on those championship teams.
1980 – Lakers – Magic Johnson
1981 – Celtics – Larry Bird
1982 – Lakers – Magic Johnson
1983 – Sixers – Julius Erving
1984 – Celtics – Larry Bird
1985 – Lakers – Magic Johnson
1986 – Celtics – Larry Bird
1987 – Lakers – Magic Johnson
1988 – Lakers – Magic Johnson
1989 – Pistons – Isaiah Thomas
1990 – Pistons – Isaiah Thomas
1991 – Bulls – Michael Jordan
1992 – Bulls – Michael Jordan
1993 – Bulls – Michael Jordan
1994 – Rockets – Hakeem Olajuwon
1995 – Rockets – Hakeem Olajuwon
1996 – Bulls – Michael Jordan
1997 – Bulls – Michael Jordan
1998 – Bulls – Michael Jordan
1999 – Spurs – Tim Duncan
2000 – Lakers – Shaquille O’neal
2001 – Lakers – Shaquille O’neal
2002 – Lakers – Shaquille O’neal
2003 – Spurs – Tim Duncan
2004 – Pistons – Chauncey Billups
2005 – Spurs – Tim Duncan
2006 – Heat – Dwayne Wade
2007 – Spurs – Tim Duncan
2008 – Celtics – Paul Pierce
2009 – Lakers – Kobe Bryant
2010 – Lakers – Kobe Bryant
2011 – Mavericks – Dirk Nowiztki
So in the last 30 years only three players who were not drafted/developed by a team have led a team to win a championship. Julius Erving who was developed by the Nets in the ABA and sold to the Sixers. Shaquille O’Neal. And Chauncey Billups.
If you look at actual results building through the draft is exponentially better than trades or free agency. The core of all of the best teams in the league as recently as last year are heavily comprised of players that they themselves drafted (except the HEAT). And most every champion of the last 30 years won with players acquired via the draft.
You build a champion through the draft it’s a simple as that. And media coverage glorifying stars moving about in trades and free agency is not going to change that (except for maybe the HEAT, they’ll probably win a couple, damn them) any time soon.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Dec 29, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
You are twisting this to fit your argument.
While you have a point about the best player being drafted, it is highly erroneous to say that
they drafted and developed the core. Just about every one of those recent teams were aging veteran teams that brought in more aging veteran perennial or borderline all star type players. You use Kidd but the fact is Dallas traded away youth for an over the hill Kidd.
by Satch30 on Dec 29, 2011 9:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
You have no idea what you're talking about.
I can only venture to guess that you are simply jealous of me for being extremely physically attractive.
But. First off I have no argument. I thought the statement made that OKC is the only team that drafted/developed their core was unlikely and did some researched and offered an interpretation of the data. I at no point referred to the Magic’s situation or decision. It was purely academic. So my argument does not exist.
I assume that you dislike this data because your argument finds these facts to be inconvenient.
As far as:
“it is highly erroneous to say that
they drafted and developed the core”
I demonstrated empirically how many players from the top team’s cores were drafted by those teams. It is a significant amount. Obviously pieces are added through trades and free agency too. Otherwise all teams would be comprised completely and entirely of players they drafted. It goes without saying that 100% of a team’s core was not drafted by that team.
You are twisting my words to mean a far more outlandish statement which is easily rebuked and using that in an attempt invalidate the whole premise. (and an amateurish attempt at that, when dueling logic with me you better bring your A game)
And I only included Jason Kidd as a novelty because he was drafted and developed by the Mavs, but, obviously he doesn’t really count because he was acquired via trade. Way to be super literal and nitpick all of the fun out of everything.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Dec 29, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps
you should read your last two paragraphs to gain a better understanding of the argument you were making. Every ring bearing team in the last 10 years save the Spurs was built around a core of veteran players acquired through trades and FA. As far as your bravado and childish insult, please…
by Satch30 on Dec 29, 2011 11:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
hmm
Actually, the past few champions all relied heavily on vets acquired through trades or free agency.
Chicago Bulls – Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah – ok
San Antonio Spurs – Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, DeJuan Blair – ok
Miami Heat – Dwayne Wade, Udonis Haslem – haha. LBJ/Bosh??
Dallas Mavericks – Dirk Nowitzki, Jose Barea, Jason Kidd (technically) – haha. the king of free agent/wild trading teams.
Los Angeles Lakers – Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Derek Fisher – Pau Gasol?? Ron Artest?
Boston Celtics – Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins – seriously? KG? Ray Allen?
Oklahoma City Thunder – Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, James Harden – ok
Orlando Magic – Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Marcin Gortat – Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Vince Carter, Mike Pietrus, Ryan Anderson, B. Bass – many key players for the last couple season’s teams acquired through trade or free agency
Denver Nuggets – Nene, Arron Afflalo, Ty Lawson – missing a big player here, no?
Portland Trailblazers – Lamarcus Aldrige, Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum – Roy was a trade acquisition. And Gwa? Wes Matthews?
by Half-man Half-gortat on Dec 29, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Miami is a hybrid in this discussion
They developed Wade and got Lebron/Bosh via free agency. However, they ‘blew it up’ to clear cap space for those 2. I think they’re a weird case rather than an argument for either side in this discussion.
Yugly.
Nearly all good players now enter the draft right after their freshman year.
Which means they seek their free agency just prior to hitting their prime. This is a huge difference, because teams used to have their drafted franchise player secured through at worse the early part of their peak years and could build around them accordingly. That is not happening anymore.
In addition rules implemented to enhance player movement in the 2005 CBA changed free agency forever and now the new 2011 CBA has made keeping young teams together even more difficult. Here is a link to David Stern talking about how the new CBA will essentially dismantle the OKC Thunder.
First of all, a team has to get enormously lucky to land a top draft pick on top of it having to be a good draft year to be able to draft a Durant, Rose or a Howard. The new paradigm gives that team a one to three year sweet spot at best to win it all.
The lucky franchise must then hope their player peaks high enough (prior to his free agency) to carry the team into contention. There are only two ways to surround that player with a championship caliber supporting cast. One is for that team to either have sucked long enough to have accumulated that necessary roster. The other is for that franchise to dig deep into their pockets and spend on free agency. Most championship franchises prior to the mass infusion of teenaged players used the latter. But since 2005’s rule changes, championship squads have primarily been built on major free agency acquisitions. The only outlier is the Spurs, who where constructed prior to that.
OKC really only has this season and maybe next year to win it all before free agency for OKC wrecks havoc. Chicago faces the same free agency issues plus the long term near max contract and imminent decline of 30 year old Boozer. In addition, Chicago has to go through the free agency constructed Miami Heat just to get into the finals.
Next summer, yet another free agency jugernaut could very likely be created in Dallas – as everything is set perfectly for Mark Cuban to bring DWill and Howard to play along with Dirk Nowitzki and Shaun Marion. If that happens OKC better give Westbrook a max deal just so they have a chance to make it out of the West.
The only point I think tastelikeburning was saying was the best player of all of those teams were drafted by that team
In the NBA, one player can make all the difference in the world. With the exception of Miami, all of those top teams had a superstar that they drafted and developed (even Denver had Carmelo Anthony for half of last season).
No one is arguing that free agency and trades are not important and don’t contribute to championships. Of course they do. In the end though, I believe his point was that the draft is probably the most important of the three tools (draft, free agency, trades) a team can use to build a contending roster since that will most likely yield a superstar to build a team around.
Also to nitpick (but I guess strengthening whatever argument you are trying to make), if you don’t count Brandon Roy for whatever reason because he was a draft-day acquisition, then you should bring up Kobe Bryant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki, Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat, Glen Davis, Nene, Rajon Rondo, and probably a few others because they were all draft-day acquisitions as well.
However, most of the time, even if it is another team drafting the player, it is the team that winds up with the player that told the other team to make that selection . . . okay that was a convoluted sentence, so I will do an example: Denver technically drafted Jameer Nelson, but it was the Magic who told Denver to draft him in order to make a trade. In essence, the Magic drafted him.
If the Magic must trade Dwight to the Lakers, it better be for Gasol & Bynum and 2 picks, and the Lakers better take Duhon & Turkoglu (I'll miss you, Hedo!!!)l.
by funny80sguy on Dec 29, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
You're right --
Roy can count as a draft pick then, agreed.
(You knew Glen Davis was a draft day acquisition? That is going deep into the knowledge well)
by Half-man Half-gortat on Dec 29, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm the Rain Man of NBA transactions
I even scare myself sometimes.
If the Magic must trade Dwight to the Lakers, it better be for Gasol & Bynum and 2 picks, and the Lakers better take Duhon & Turkoglu (I'll miss you, Hedo!!!)l.
There's no need to blow up this team when Dwight leaves, in my opinion.
Sure, we probably need to lose one of Jameer, Hedo or J-Rich, but not all of them. Out of all of them, I’d rather the latter.
Also, the roster currently has a lot of players with 5 years or less NBA experience: JJ, Orton, Harper, Liggins, Ryan, Earl and heck even Big Baby. Von Wafer’s the same age as Dwight. So you have a “young roster”, a good squad of reserves and role players.
The problem will be two things: the team goes from becoming above average defensively to lacking a post presence, and there still remains the issue of the lack of a go-to scorer.
just to be clear Evan ...
It seems you are predicting the Wizards will be contending for the championship in the next few years?
Historically, how many teams have used the dynamite and then gone on to win … and how long did it take?
Miami post Hardaway-Mourning, blew it up, drafted Wade, built around him, got Shaq, then championship.
It didn’t take that long. Then they blew it up again, cleared cap space got Lebron. They showed you can win building around a drafted player, or by signing several quality veterans. In both cases the key is financial flexibility, which Orlando doesn´t have right now. So the best case scenario is to trade big contracts for picks, lose some and get good draft picks along with the ability to sign major free agents. You don’t build around 30 year old perenial all stars. I can’t remember a team winning it all without at least one top 10 player.
by Leandro. on Dec 29, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
that's one ...
… and much more discussion, and disagreement, about the issue up-thread. I think the questions are (a) are there any of the younger players with the potential to be a top 10 player? (b) how are Orlando’s picks looking in the next few years?
In any case I don’t see the Wizards winning it all in the next 5 years either, Walls not that good, he’ll take time to develop, so I’m not sure they’re a good example.
Orlando has to try to be a contender this year to sway Dwight. They don’t need to win, just be a contender and have the opportunity to get D.Will next year. That I think is the best option, and if that fails and Howard wants out, then blow it up, even if it takes a few years longer.
by icerat on Dec 29, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bottom line: We are not a championship team with anything we could get for Howard
It is much better to blow it up and rebuild it right. I have my doubts they can even do that well, but it is the only reasonable path forward if Dwight is leaving.
Nice post, Evan.
Yugly.
Dynamite vs. Duct Tape
Is the perfect analogy. I won’t tolerate a mediocre team. I’ll tune in every night with Howard on the floor. If we have a crappy group of third-rate scrubs chasing lottery balls, I’ll buy good seats and bring my kid, just to keep them in business. But if we trade our Ferrari for six K-Cars, I’m outty.
You can’t get a good draft pick from a team you trade Howard to. He’ll win enough games on his own to elevate them above the lottery, so your picks will suck.
It’s Howard or the dynamite.
There are three tiers of success in sports. At the top, greatness. Here lives champions. In the middle, basement teams in the process of rebuilding. True greatness is epitomized in patience, belief and effort, for these franchises never give up even when they suck. They know they’ll eventually get back to the top.
At the bottom, dwelling among tape worms and used car salesmen, are .500 teams. Owned by apathetic billionaires who don’t know the names of their players, these suckfish losers don’t draw fans, they sell cheap tickets to a beer-night getwaway and offer bobble-head dolls of opposing team stars. Banners will never hang in the rafters of these buildings. They serve as halfway houses for aging stars and bad draft picks.
I respect the Clippers because despite their sad-sack lot in life, they keep trying. Now it looks like they may finally be getting their due. They didn’t throw in the towel.
Give me Howard or give me a basement full of dynamite. Anything in between is tantamount to surrender.
by MagicPhan on Dec 29, 2011 8:19 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
I agree with you but nobody here is a TRUE fan if they will quit supporting the team under any circumstances
by Magical-OverHauL on Dec 29, 2011 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, I will support the Magic if they go mediocre. It'll just suck a lot more and for longer.
My point is that I want the team always chasing the title, not the wild-card spot. Teams (and people) that/who take bigger risks win bigger. They also lose bigger when they lose, but either is more fun to watch than milquetoast.
yes
But if the Clippers sucked, the staples center still sold seats. We’re really in a unique jam. What if our hopes in the draft didn’t pan out too via Dynamite? We could loose more than a couple seasons. Anyway, I believe they’re going for a decent trade package, will continue to develop the younger guys, and will find a way to add a Superstar in the free agencies in the future. That’s if Dwights leaving.
by DaytonaJim00 on Dec 29, 2011 4:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
or is it impossible to clear space @ that point?
Is their a way to keep a core, develop a core, and pull back in a superstar?
by DaytonaJim00 on Dec 29, 2011 4:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Deron Williams
Has Orlando a chance to sign Deron Williams via free agency next summer, and then bring back Howard with team?
I don’t see other ways to keep the team competitive…
If Dwight will be traded for two-three good player, i hope they are under the fifth year of NBA, then we must wait the contracts expiration for Jameer, JJ, Turkoglu and check on the FA market big stars to renew championship dreams…
Best regards to all Magic fans from Italy! :-)
Great Article
100% agree…gotta be bad before you can be good again.
’92 top pick, shaq drafted, finals in 06
’04 top pick, dwight drafted, finals in 09
hopefully a good gm will get the next star to stick around a while
This is exactly why I don't understand Magic fans that think blowing it up isn't the way to go.
We need look no further than our own recent team history to see what works best.
by AnnaJ on Dec 29, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Except
that we didn’t didn’t win a championship in either one if those cases and the odds of us getting another player, let alone 2, of that caliber are slim. Also, in both of those instances it seems we are just playing farm team to the bigger markets. Hooray!
by Satch30 on Dec 29, 2011 9:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
and actually
the only time we tried the blow up option was in 98 and it blew up in our face.
by Satch30 on Dec 29, 2011 10:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
You're right, we didn't win a championship in those cases. But we didn't win a championship in any other case either, so that's pretty much a moot point.
The fact of the matter is that we’ve come closer to winning one by being a lottery team first.
Sorry but I do not trust Otis to assemble a championship team of “veteran” players.
Let's bring John Weisbrod back (and I'm halfway not-kidding)
In one offseason, Weisbrod made the unpopular decision to draft Dwight over Emeka Okafor, acquired the rights to Jameer in that same draft, and then signed Hedo to a mid-level contract. That was 3/5th of the Magic’s elite starting lineup right there.
If the Magic must trade Dwight to the Lakers, it better be for Gasol & Bynum and 2 picks, and the Lakers better take Duhon & Turkoglu (I'll miss you, Hedo!!!)l.
by funny80sguy on Dec 29, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Weisbrod in his short stint was one of the better GM's for the Magic
easily better than Otis and John Gabriel. His big mistake was the whole T-Mac trade. He should have just let him walk rather than trade for 3 marginal NBA players. Quality over quantity
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 29, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Is everyone conveniently forgetting the tracy mcgrady trade?
that was one of the most colossally lopsided trades in history. Tracy was a top 5 player, a year removed from being one of the few players in history to post a PER above 30. And all the magic got in return was steve franchise, cat mobley and the moon man.
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 29, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
McGrady's trade value at that point was low, though.
And granted, Francis’ trade value should have been zero. But McGrady was already breaking down physically and chucking the ball… it was apparent what he was turning into, and as much as I’d like to believe I know more than NBA GMs, I have to assume most teams saw the red flags too.
It's on like Gregg Zaun!
And I don't give wesibrod a ton of credit for going with dwight over okafur
from the reports the streamed out from their workouts, it was abundantly evident that dwight wouldn’t take long to become the better player. sure theres a certain amount of risk involved in drafting a high schooler but even their rookie year, dwight was the better player.
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 29, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
absolutely not
As a rookie Emeka was easily better Dwight especially on the offensive end. Dwight was just a dunker early on while Okafor had a decent post game. The stats show this as well. Okafor averaged 15 ppg and 11 rpg to GH’s 12 ppg and 10 rpg
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 30, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
No, he was flat out rookie of the year
514 points for Okafor, 443 for Ben Gordon, 161 for Dwight, 14 for Iguodala, 1 point each for Deng and JR Smith.
Bob.
It was obvious? To who?
Bill Simmons is an idiot, but check out his draft diary from that night.
7:37 —The Magic are on the clock with the first pick. If they’re smart, they take Emeka Okafor. If they’re dumb, they take Howard. It’s that simple.
7:39 — They go with Howard. Of course they do. He’s the third high schooler taken overall in the past four years, as well as the first top pick with braces since Pervis Ellison. Not a good sign. “Praise the Lord!” screams Dwight Howard Sr., who didn’t realize that the Lord had Okafor going first in his mock draft.
7:45 — Charlotte can’t take Okafor fast enough. Seriously, I’m not sure they even started the clock. They borrowed Dwight Howard’s car and raced to the podium at 160 mph.
7:49 — Bobcats GM Bernie Bickerstaff seems woozy from landing Okafor; he’s making my dad seem lively right now. You can’t blame him — they just ended up with a possible franchise center.
CNNSI gave the Magic a lower grade than Charlotte, too.
New GM John Weisbrod better hope Howard is more Kevin Garnett than Kwame Brown. If not, Okafor could make him look real bad.
Chad Ford’s assessment had Charlotte doing better than Orlando as well.
Still, I believe the Magic should’ve taken Okafor. I think Howard has all the skills to be a great player, but does he have the heart? Nelson and Varejao are both very solid. Nelson can come in right away and help Orlando. Varejao could too, as an energy guy, though it’s likely he’ll stay in Spain another year or two. Not a bad draft, but I think they’ll regret not taking Okafor.
So, it’s pretty hard to say Dwight was a no brainer.
Can we just start playing games on the court already?!
Howard was definitely not the obvious pick. Nowhere near in fact.
For one it was thought that Okafor would be able to contribute sooner (which, he actually did, more or less) and that that would help keep T-Mac.
Although, I don’t know how much credit Weisbrod deserves for “spotting Dwight’s superstar potential” or what have you.
Many insiders have insinuated (both before and after the draft) that the biggest reason that the Magic chose Howard was at the insistence of DeVos who was enamored with Howard’s strong Christian faith.
The fact that Howard became the better player may be simply luck as much as an indication that Weisbrod was some ace talent evaluator.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 1, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
It is only in hindsight that it becomes the obviously right choice and it may just be a place where the Magic got lucky. Of course, that cold be said of any draft choice. Sam Bowie anyone?
Can we just start playing games on the court already?!
Saying that '99 blew up in our faces is an overstatement.
(I’m assuming you mean 99-00 instead of ‘98; ’98 was the lockout shortened season when the Magic had a veteran laden team that achieved one of the league’s best records)
The year the Magic blew it up they:
- Had arguably the most popular Magic team of all-time. (Heart & Hustle)
- Drafted the rookie of the year. (Mike Miller)
- Cleared enough cap room for what was until The Decision the greatest Free Agent haul of all-time. (Grant Hill, Tracy McGrady)
I wish that everything the Magic did blew up in their face like that.
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Jan 1, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And the heart and hustle team arguably underperformed
Based on their stats, they should have gone 43-39, rather than 41-41. They were a pretty solid defensive team, with Ben Wallace, Chris Gatling, and Bo Outlaw all posting over 1000 minutes and DRtgs below 100.
And I had forgotten a young Dad was on that team.
Bob.
The odds of us getting another player of that caliber through the duct tape method aren't slim.
They’re ZERO.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 29, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
We already anticipate on getting blown out.....
oh well, what chants are you planning?
Dwight or bust....
Superbowl or bust...
This all makes Otis look better
Weird right? I have definitely been on the #fireotis campaign like many others, but if the owners are telling him that they want to win now, well his hands are tied. It sounds like he is just doing what his bosses are telling him.
It just felt weird that they used up their potentially available cap space next summer on JRich and Davis. It makes more sense now that they just want to fill up the arena for the immediate future. Sounds like a lot of duct tape.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.
Evan - a question
is there any specific clause in the CBA that prevents us from signing arenas now that he passed the bidding process? i’ve read media reports saying its not possible but they never cite to anything — i think they are all citing to each other.
dwight seems particularly enamored of him. perhaps if duhon plays awfully that would be a low-cost option to keep him happy. if we’re paying him $20 million this year, why not pay an extra $1 million vet min to actually get the player too?
i say this without any knowledge as to gilbert’s conditioning, physical capacity, etc.
by Half-man Half-gortat on Dec 29, 2011 1:13 PM EST reply actions
teams that used the amnesty on a player
have to wait until July (I think) if they want to re-sign that player.
The Magic cannot resign him until the contract they nixed expires
So, 3 years.
Can we just start playing games on the court already?!
Speaking of Arenas, what is happening with him?
I haven’t heard of any teams interested in him lately. Heck, even Michael Redd just got signed by the Suns. Double heck, Jerry Stackhouse is with the Hawks, and that guy was a NBATV commentator last year.
Is he really waiting on what will happen with Howard (which is sorta dumb since Dwight might not be moved until the trade deadline)? Or is it that teams want no part of him?
If the Magic must trade Dwight to the Lakers, it better be for Gasol & Bynum and 2 picks, and the Lakers better take Duhon & Turkoglu (I'll miss you, Hedo!!!)l.
I mean, you saw him play last year.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that no one wants his broken-down body with that attitude.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 29, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
The only way we'll win is WITH Howard
-NOT without him.
Without Howard, we’ll be a 8th seed that gets thrashed and embarrassed every 1st round for the next 4-5 years. We got knocked out in the 1st round this year (I blame SVG and lousy 3pt shooting), just imagine the team without him.
I don’t!
Without Howard we dont have 3 point shooting
We dont run and we dont drive and kick…
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 29, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
People can do what they want, but I'm a little surprised people are planning to swear off the Magic
I mean, I’m a Magic fan, nothing’s changing that. I’ve watched the games when the team was even worse than this team would be if you subtracted Howard.
fairweather fans
can’t live with em can’t sell out arenas without em
by William_H_HOLLA on Dec 29, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm reading this differently...maybe I'm wrong
I’m interpreting a lot of these posts as passion for the team.
I want to keep Howard and do the best we can, taking the risk that he walks. Why? REP96st said it best: we don’t win without Howard. There is nothing out there worth trading him for, so why bother? Trying to be pretty good or make do with what is available has never been the stated goal of the team’s ownership.
On the other hand, the Magic franchise is still the main thing, and it’s bigger to me than any single player. So if he walks, we rebuild. We only got Howard in the first place because Shaq walked. The cliche was that we got nothing in return for Shaq, but that isn’t true. We got Dwight in return, it just took a few years of really sucking but otherwise he would have gone to Charlotte or Chicago. What if Orlando had traded Shaq to L.A. for…Vlade Divac? We might have been just good enough to not score the D12 lottery. In other words: mediocre.
Doesn’t a fan always want a championship? I do, even if it means we have to be awful for awhile.
I see your point, but...
…Shaq doesn’t really connect to Dwight, there’s too much time in between. Or did I just imagine the Mcgrady years?
The goal is a title
Talent wins titles. The best way to get titles is to suck for a bit to get good draft picks. It’s a pretty simple business.
Being mediocre is the absolute worst thing to be in the NBA. Teams like the Bucks, Pacers, Hawks and Bobcats aren’t going anywhere with their rosters. The Magic, with or without Dwight, don’t want to be those teams. Be great or be awful – don’t ever be average.
There is no "one-size-fits-all" model, but rather a combination of different options depending on the situations presented.
Magic 08-09 was mainly built through draft (i.e., Dwight and Jameer) but took off when Rashard came over through FA. But then who could have guessed what the combination of T-Mac and Grant Hill may have provided if Hill was not injured … that was all FA signings which was made possible through creating cap space. On the other hand, draft is not a surefire since about 40% of number one picks do not turn out to be super stars. All that said, we can rely on two factors not to ever fail … cap space and semi-proven talents (i.e., trading for young talents).
As for current Magic’s situation, it’s nonsensical to think that we could have any equal trade for a player that there is no equal for … and that in a situation that we are still over the cap laden with some unmovable contracts. That is why the trade with a team under the cap makes sense whereby we shed salary, move some undesirable contracts, and receive picks and/or young talents without hurting our chances – or at least not much – in a draft lottery.
The road to championship is not through re-loading with expensive contracts of old or risky players (i.e., LAL trade) … that is guaranteed mediocrity for years to come with no chance of a high draft pick or a shot at FA. We may be left only with marginal trade options due to age and/or riskiness of trade assets.
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