Even Excluding Dwight Howard Rumors, Orlando Magic Offseason a Disaster
by Evan Dunlap on Dec 20, 2011 8:01 AM EST
in Commentary
Email
Print
Dwight Howard's pending free agency and his still-standing trade request figure to dominate the headlines through much of the Orlando Magic's season; the outcomes of the games, I suspect, will be almost incidental. He, his teammates, and his coach will face the same questions about those topics, phrased several different ways, in each city they visit.
And indeed those stories have shaped the tenor in discussions of the Magic's offseason and preseason; Howard can't even have a bad game--five points in Orlando's 33-point shellacking at the hands of the Miami Heat--without some folks wondering if he's simply mailing it in, angling for a trade sooner rather than later.
Which is all to say perhaps the discussion of Orlando's offseason has centered too much on Howard. Other questions remain, but my chief concerns are these: in what ways is this Magic team different from the one that was a silly Larry Drew coaching decision--benching All-Star center Al Horford for almost the entire first half of Game 2--from being swept out of the first round of the playoffs? Has Otis Smith adequately addressed the weaknesses of the 2010/11 Magic roster?
The answers are "not many" and "no, emphatically," respectively.
Writing for ESPN Insider, Chad Ford gives the Magic's offseason an "F." Smith's team is the only one to receive that grade. Ford notes Smith's "recent head-scratching moves" that didn't work out well at all, including the trades for Gilbert Arenas--since waived using the amnesty clause, meaning the DeVos family will pay him $62 million over the next three years to not play for its team--and Hedo Turkoglu. His sobering assessment provides the pivot for today's discussion.
But Smith made those regrettable deals almost precisely a year ago. His activity this summer? Drafting Justin Harper and DeAndre Liggins; trading Brandon Bass for Glen Davis and Von Wafer; re-signing Jason Richardson to a four-year contract; and re-signing Earl Clark to a two-year contract.
The most notable move here is swapping Bass for Davis. On the surface, they're similar players, insofar as both are jump-shooting, undersized power forwards. The difference is Bass shoots jumpers well, and Davis doesn't. Consider the four-year commitment Smith made to Davis and the trade seems more puzzling, though Davis' frame enables him to back Howard up at center more capably than Bass did.
Elsewhere, Wafer is a fifth guard at best, and inking the nearly 31-year-old Richardson to a four-year deal (albeit a reasonably priced one) will complicate Orlando's efforts to clear salary for its rebuild process if Howard bolts. "This, as Magic fans know, is a Smith special," Ford writes of Richardson's new contract. "He signs players to big deals without context."
If one views the Bass-for-Davis trade as a lateral move for Orlando--and that's a charitable assessment--and believes Richardson can rebound from an unimpressive 55-game stint with the Magic, then perhaps the team is better off than it was when its season ended in April. But in general, it's status quo. Davis takes Bass' place in the rotation, while Chris Duhon will fill in for the departed Arenas. The other slots don't figure to change significantly.
Orlando's strengths and weaknesses remain the same. This is not a team that can compete for a championship as presently constructed. That's not a rash reaction to one 33-point preseason defeat or a playoff series in which the team dramatically underperformed almost across the board; that's what I believe to be an honest assessment of Orlando's capabilities.
The Magic's most glaring weakness in 2010/11 was their utter lack of a reliable shot-creator. When defenses manage to a) bottle Howard up, b) shut down the Magic's pick-and-roll/ball-reversal game, or c) both a) and b), Orlando had nobody who could break a defense down and create a good look.
Consider: Turkoglu still has the handle to get his own shot, but chose poorly through much of the season, and was even reluctant to fire away at times. Richardson's diminished athleticism makes him more effective as a shooter off the catch than off the dribble. J.J. Redick has expanded his offensive game since entering the league as a floor-spacing specialist, but still can't be counted on to anchor an offense from the perimeter.
Smith has essentially handcuffed himself to this roster, both by dumping his best trade assets--Bass' reasonable contract, backup center Marcin Gortat, Vince Carter's semi-expiring contract--and by signing marginal players to long-term deals. Orlando doesn't need a superstar swingman in order to return to the ranks of the East's elite, but it lacks the trade chips to swing a deal for even a second- or third-tier option.
In short, improvement at that most dire area of need seems unlikely, both from within and from without.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Richardson, Redick, and Turkoglu can create for themselves when the offense bogs down. Maybe Howard has taken his game to the next level and can reliably score 26 points per game, thus diminishing the need for a number-two wing scoring option. Maybe someone apart from Howard will draw a foul every once in a while. Maybe an enticing trade offer will come along as the trading deadline draws nearer. But you'll forgive my skepticism on those points.
We invite you to follow Orlando Pinstriped Post on Twitter and like Orlando Pinstriped Post on Facebook.
206 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Yet again
we wake up to the reality that is Otis Smith and his shoddy work as a GM. I’m glad that basketball is back but the only thing I’m excited about, will be watching the rookies get garbage minutes.
Pre-season or not, I can’t remember ever seeing Dwight and Jameer looking so disinterested and playing so poorly.
I really hope in the future things will get better and improve.
Jameer always looks sleepy and disinterested
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 20, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Agree completely
This team will not be fun to watch IMO. Our top scoring threat is JRich, our PG is not a consistent performer, Hedo should not start for any team, Big Baby is more of a defensive anchor, and Dwight doesn’t want to be here.
Furthermore, we saw that Harper played great in Europe, SVG says Liggins is doing very well and I am rather sure neither of those guys will get the PT to develop.
Reading my posts is a privilege and I will ban anyone who disagrees with me from the Internet for life.
Rec'd.
I don't get the whole 'pop-tart cats pooping rainbows thing,' but then, I'm old. So, there it is.
#FireOtis
I’m really glad you’ve addressed all of this, and I couldn’t agree more.
And to draw on my previous fanpost, if we know this team is not going to win a Championship, and that Otis Smith has, as you say, “handcuffed” himself to it, then how can we NOT trade Howard?
If I’m Alex Martins, I’m out there trying to pull the best GM I can get, firing/crucifying Otis Smith for driving this team into the ground, and working desperately to sell Howard on the “future”.
He clearly thinks the grass is greener in NJ. Maybe we can convince him the grass will be greener in Orlando, going forward.
Short of that, we can’t in good conscience keep him beyond the trade deadline.
Agree.
Thanks for laying this out, Evan. Seeing it here, makes you wonder if Otis has a fully functional brain. With the signings he’s made, he’s made trading Dwight really the only way we can get better (as Jt points out above). Unless there’s some miraculous trade out there for JJ, Anderson, Jameer, and/or JRich that addresses all of our needs, Otis has put us into a position to accomplishes neither of our goals for the future—a) this team isn’t going to compete for a Championship, so Dwight is not likely to resign; b) if and when Dwight leaves, this team doesn’t really have a good young core and, after the puzzling trades and moves in off-season, has less cap-flexibility than it would have had. I’ll admit. I was on the Otis bandwagon following the ’09 season, but every move since then. . .
"
by TheOtherWhiteMeat on Dec 20, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
And by "better," I mean "worse". . .
What a cluster f…..
"
by TheOtherWhiteMeat on Dec 20, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Oh and there's also....
this little gem
"
by TheOtherWhiteMeat on Dec 20, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
I really can't imagine...
…how someone could cost a business so much money — a cool $20 mil if you consider using amnesty on Gil rather than Lewis — and still keep their position in the company.
Boggles the mind.
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 20, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
I remember thinking that going to the Finals in '09 was just the first step in the right direction.
The team was so full of promise back then, with a young core, 3 of the starters had just been invited to the All-Star game. 2 and 1/2 years later, those seem like distant memories. Sure other teams got better, but it’s hard to explain how the Magic got this bad, this fast.
Magic Fan since the 1992-1993 Season.
Caracas, Venezuela.
by North of the South on Dec 20, 2011 9:51 AM EST reply actions
At least we're not Bobcats fans!
I don’t know if any team has been run as badly as them.
by Justin85 on Dec 20, 2011 10:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Evan...play Magic GM for a min:
I certainly agree with nearly all of what you say here, and with the “F” grade (though I’d stretch to D-).
But I have to ask…given the assests the Magic had and the people available this offseason, what would you have done? Who would you have gone after to upgrade the roster, and what would you have offered to get them in Pinstripes? It feels like they didn’t have much they could do. Almost any trade they put in for an upgrade in one position meant a hole in another.
Maybe do a sign & trade with J-Rich, coupled with Bass for a more athletic/defensive SG who can create their own shot? Who would that be, would their team take that offer, and what does the Frontcourt look like with Howard and Anderson (and maybe Clark) being the only reliable ‘bigs’? And you’d still have Duhon playing backup PG.
Do we really think that the “hail mary” for Chris Paul was ever a real option? It would have been awesome, but there were certainly roster holes with that option as well — though for CP3 that’s not as big an issue.
Would you not amnesty Gil to have a non-Duhon backup PG, but restricting trade options due to being over the luxury tax line?
Play GM. What would you have tried to do…and I guess, what would you be trying to do right now?
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 20, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Evan, Evan, Evan
He’s not God; he runs a blog
by nastynate2012 on Dec 22, 2011 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
Evan once turned water into Gatorade.
Please leave a message, I'm busy hiding my cat from TGS.
by malenko on Dec 22, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Except it was punch-flavored
So he is a flawed god.
If the Magic must trade Dwight to the Lakers, it better be for Gasol & Bynum and 2 picks, and the Lakers better take Duhon & Turkoglu (I'll miss you, Hedo!!!)l.
lmao
you still watching ANTM? :D
Fetch me a crocodile sandwich and make it snappy!
by TheGiantSquid on Dec 22, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Um, yes
And the finale disappointed me greatly #teamangelea #teamallison
by Evan Dunlap on Dec 23, 2011 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
ugh...
Angelea was the worst. She did the worst in half of the challenges, cried in the other half, and needed to do some side bends and sit ups (the only allowable exercises in the ghetto).
And then she won. But she slept with the wrong producer or something and they said, “JK! you lose”.
And then Lisa won. (and she was all like, “omg.. really?” and we were all like “omg.. really?”)
I was disappoint.
Usually the all-star seasons of these reality competitions are better than that. ANTM went horribly wrong. I knew I should have stopped watching once Sheena got kicked off…
RAWR! (╯°□°）╯︵ ƃuıuɹnqǝʞı˥ǝʇsɐ┴ɐ
by aTasteLikeBurning on Dec 23, 2011 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
yeah I wasn't an Angelea fan
also, you two are killing me XD I think I know more guys who watch ANTM than gals at this point lol
Fetch me a crocodile sandwich and make it snappy!
by TheGiantSquid on Dec 23, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
no, I'm glad!
I wasn’t sure if you had caught up to the All Star season or not.
And TOTALLY Team Allison!
Fetch me a crocodile sandwich and make it snappy!
by TheGiantSquid on Dec 23, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
This offseason is more of a growth from the disastrous trades of last year.
It wouldn’t be nearly as hard to play GM if you have those since-departed assets available to you.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 20, 2011 5:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
IF Otis hadn't given Lewis an extra year on his contract and hadn't trade him, he will be a 20 M expiring contract right now
who we could have traded along Gortat, Ryan Anderson and the draft pick we gifted Phoenix, for an Allstar + bad contracts, something Atlanta (Iggy, Smith) could have certainly used. And we could still keep the amnesty in order to get rid of any mistake we could made.
Rashard Lewis's contract is not an expiring contract.
This season he is owed $21 million and next year he is owed $23 million ($17 million of which is fully guaranteed and the rest is guaranteed based on health benchmarks).
Not only is it not expiring, but to trade a contract of that size requires a team to return proportional contracts in return. A lot easier said then done.
To be fair
He did capitalize the “IF” and said “hand’t given Lewis an extra year”
but it would be hard to move regardless
Magic LA I said "IF Otis hadn't given Lewis an extra year on his contract"
He was going to sign for 6 years, and at last minute signed for 7 because Houston was supposed to be offering that. You could have traded him in a trade involving Joe Johnson’s horrible contract and maybe Josh Smith. Lewis+Gortat+Anderson+Reddick+picks for Okafor+Ariza+CP3. Or just let it expire get under the cap and sign CP3/Deron in freeagency. I mean I am not sure if anything of this could have happen, but a 20M expiring is an asset.
Completely agreed
I find the Richardson and Davis contract lengths baffling. Why would you do that before you know what is happening with Dwight? Why commit to those lengths when we might be blowing this whole team up mid season?
I don’t think they have any strategy at all. They are flailing terribly with no direction.
Yugly.
Yeah, we al thought "he has a masterplan", "he knows something we don´t" "after CP3 is dealt he is going to pull a major trade for Iggy or Monta"
Nope, no plan, same old team, just with older players with worse contracts.
I was hoping he had a master plan but I seriously doubted it
It is pretty obvious at this point that there is no master plan.
Yugly.
People you knew there was no master plan
Since when has this guy given us a reason that he knows what he’s doing
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 20, 2011 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I don't know if this team was ever truly a championship squad but rather a team that exceeded expectations one season - and that was due primarily because it surprised its opponents with the unorthodox 4/1 offense.
In the 08-09 season, the Eastern Conference was a joke. Three playoff teams where at or below .500. The 4th and 5th seeds, Atlanta and Miami, where ok at best. The Magic benefited greatly from this curve as well as a fluke career (contract) year from Hedo.
The truth is the Magic haven’t regressed as much as the Eastern Conference has progressed. The conferences are now balanced and teams have adjusted personnel and learned how to defend Dwight and the 4/1 offense. Otis has failed at his attempts to adjust for this; but (to a lesser extent) you also have to lay some blame on SVG for failing to adapt to these fluid conditions.
by MagicLA on Dec 20, 2011 11:23 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
He had to continue the 4/1 offense
We do not have another body who can post up effectively. We also do not have anybody else to create their own shot. So what is Stan Van only option? Put Howard in the post and hope that he is double-teamed so he can kick out to a wide open shooter as no one can create their shot off the dribble. But I agree with the first part about how easy the Eastern Conference was and how the Magic benefited from it.
Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein.
- Joe Theismann
by FloridaEagle on Dec 20, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The conference has absolutely become more difficult.
But at the same time I think the 2010 squad was even better than the 2009 squad even though they didn’t get as far in the playoffs. I really truly believe that Boston is the most well-constructed team in the league over the past few years. They have the right players at just about every position and decent depth. Their only issue has been age and injuries. So even though we got whipped by Boston in 2010 I think that was actually the best team we had. To me, our regression only begins last year.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
by cgsimone on Dec 20, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
The 2010 squad was a heart breaker, for me.
I completely believed in that team. We performed amazingly for the majority of the season. We murdered the Hawks, raising my confidence to an all time high. I went to game 1 of the ECF, and it felt like we should have won. We couldn’t hit shots we normally hit, and something was clearly wrong with Lewis.
I was so happy when Rondo was injured in game 6 (I’m never happy to see a player injured, but I was desperate), and then NATE FREAKING ROBINSON tore us apart with low percentage shots. Total heart break.
by najabaas on Dec 20, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No kidding.
I couldn’t believe how epic our comeback was looking in that series. A close OT win in Boston in game 4 followed by a blowout in Game 5 where we looked completely dominant. And then Game 6 where the Celts got their act together and NATE FREAKING ROBINSON…Now I’m all worked up too.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
Totally agree and rec'd.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 20, 2011 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
We were very competitive against the top teams in the NBA.
Both in 2009 and 2010 we fared well against the West also. I don’t think it was a matter of over-achieving, it was a matter of a team playing good ball until we ran into Boston’s buzz-saw in the ECF.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
#fireotis
I hate how Otis, is going to successfully use the new CBA (w/ amnesty clause), and his best player, to get rid of 2 large mistakes he made last year (Gil and Turk). I really see no possible way that Otis will get more than the hornets got for Paul either. This team is going to be a mess for years with and without Otis
3 mistakes if Duhon is included
But, yes, we are using the amnesty, and it looks like the dwight trade also, to erase foreseeable mistakes rather than improve.
Yugly.
I loved all those years he gave Duhon
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 20, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
4/1 worked for 1 year until the other teams figured it out! Now they know our plays better than our guys do!
Changes are needed with the Magic and needed fast! imo
It wasn't that other teams figured it out.
It was that we lost the matchup advantages with Turk being gone and Lewis not hitting shots. In the NBA most teams have each other figured out. There aren’t a whole lot of surprises because everybody knows what the other team is going to run. It’s all about execution, exploiting matchups, and playing defense.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
by cgsimone on Dec 20, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Naw..teams found out how to defend it..
Everybody now knows that you guard the Magic by staying home on our perimeter shooters and letting Dwight get his..it’s effective because none of our players are penetrators that can break down the defense and consistently finish at the rim..so if you let Dwight get his 30-40 pts and limit everyone else..you can beat us everytime..
Right, but that's why Turk was the matchup problem he was
He was a playmaker when the opposing D was trying to stay at home on the shooters. That’s in essence what Carter should have brought. One component of a truly great 4/1 offense is a single playmaker/shot creator. The rest of the team is shooters and perimeter defenders and 1 dominant post player.
I’m saying that the system isn’t the problem. The problem is that our personnel choices haven’t fit the system in a while and we aren’t talented enough to play traditional. It’s a catch-22.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
by cgsimone on Dec 20, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Plus Dwight is liable to commot 5 turnovers a game and give or take 1 or 2 offensive fouls
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 20, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
5 turnovers, is that all? (it looks like more than that)
and he is not passing out of double team since he has leant his post moves.
The problem, as cgisimone eloquently stated...
Is the personnel. That’s on Otis.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
If Ryan Anderson starts, I see us having great success with the 4/1
I don’t think it will be as great as the 09 year but it should be great. And if we could somehow get JJ in the starting line-up then we’d be even better than the 09 year imo. He can get to the free throw line and hit threes and is smart with the ball. I like J-Rich but unless he plays outstanding I’d put in JJ as the starter.
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
by BigMac12111 on Dec 20, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Disaster is an Understatement!
Dell Demps had it right the entire time. If he doesn’t want to be here and he’s not going to sign the extension, get rid of him and get what u can. And he hasn’t been doing this as long as Otis has! Is holding on to Dwight a tactic? If so, is it in hopes of driving the bidding price up? And if all of that is true, then its certainly not Otis’ idea. To me it was obvious that he never had a plan, he was merely “playing it by ear” all along. IMO
Otis Smith management skills are kind of like
I play dominoes..lay down the largest number piece and hope the other guy can’t figure me out. I usually get my a$$ kicked to say the least
You build up assets and then strike
If you haven’t read nba.com’s artilce about how the Chris Paul trade went down, I recommend it:
Basically, the Clippers cleared out cap space so they could get LeBron but ended up getting Paul instead.
Here are some options Otis could have done:
1) Sign and trade JRich. Get a trade exception
2) Move JJ to the starting lineup
3) Make an offer for Jamal Crawford
4) Waive Chris Duhon
5) Still could have acquired Von Wafer with Rashard exception
If Jamal signs, we have basically the same team except replacing Arenas with Crawford and JRich with JJ. If JJ cant cut it in the starting lineup, we can give QRich a chance or even Wafer. If Crawford doesn’t sign, we still have the mid level and a trade exception. 3 guys that would become available in March would be Aaron Brooks, Wilson Chandler, and JR Smith. We would at least be in postion to acquire 1 of these guys.
The lockout happened because of GMs like Otis who sign role players to long term deals. Otis should have been amnestied.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.
by L Magico on Dec 20, 2011 1:12 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Especially with Crawford getting signed for two years at $10 million in Portland
I think that would’ve worked out nicely. Though there’s always a danger in signing a guy that plays well against you. They never play as well for you.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
Lots of guys got paid less than usual
and lots of 2 year deals (David West, Crawford, Josh Howard) yet the Magic give Davis and JRich 4 yr deals. Its tough to say if Crawford would sign because he is from the Northwest, but it doesn’t get much clearer than SVG saying “We don’t have a player like Jamal Crawford”. Never heard him say “I wish we had Big Baby”. Yeesh.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.
I forgot that he said that.
That kinda puts it into perspective doesn’t it. It’s like Otis gives SVG a christmas present and Stan is all giddy and he’s ripping off the wrapping paper. He’s thinking “Oh boy, I’ll bet it’s a Jamal Crawford!” And then he opens it and it’s a “Big Baby” doll. Stan is a nice kid and so he fakes his appreciation. But inside he’s very disappointed.
Not to mention they already were taking away his Superman action figure. That was his favorite.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
by cgsimone on Dec 20, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
I LOL'd for real
My co-worker thinks I’m crazy.
I just imagine getting a "Big Baby" doll for Christmas
and drop a tear while I say “thank you”.
agree 100%
jj could have started, definitely make an offer on crawford (the way he played against us in the playoffs, Otis should b fired on tht alone imo), waive duhon. all options that apparently were not visible by our GM.
Already paying JJ 6.75
and now Jrich 6.25. Why not keep one and trade the other? Its too much money on 2 SGs.
"A man has got to have a code." -Bunk, Season 1; Omar, Season 4.
just in my opinion..
if somebody.. lets call him otis, was doing his job and was in sales with a client, and say made a rude comment, or was not putting up enough work per-hour that his salary suggests he should be. Maybe he lost the company a sum percentage in sales. The manager would look at his records. And say you know what otis, your record at this company is one of failure and not meeting requirements. At this point its in out best interest to fire you. Now lets look at real otis. Otis has a screwed up relationship with Dwight Howard(his best client IF YOU WILL) his workload is horrible its more quantity not quality. He isnt afraid to make moves, but when they are all bad whats the point? And lastly and IMO the worst position is our cap position, he has ruined us for years, lets see, does GILBERT, TURKOGLU make any sense? So based on that information. Firing him is the only option. Its nothing personal, i like his laid back personality and optimism. But from a business stand point, Alex Martins needs to send him packing. So my point #fireotis
Otis Smith...............why?.....why?WHY!?!?!?!
by dunkface94 on Dec 20, 2011 1:16 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
This Magic team can be a decent team this season...
…if everyone plays to their potential or maybe a little beyond that, but I agree that they can no longer be considered a championship contender or an elite team in the East.
Chicago Blackhawks... 2010 Stanley Cup Champions
Chicago Bears... 2010 NFC North Champion
Orlando Magic... 1995 and 2009 Eastern Conference Champions
by Mike from Illinois on Dec 20, 2011 2:06 PM EST reply actions
The Magic would have to sneak in.
Boston would have to regress greatly or get injured and Miami would have to have a freak injury or two. Chicago would be super tough but we may be able to beat them with match ups if as you say everybody plays above themselves (fat chance).
So no, they aren’t elite in the sense that they have a shot at beating any of these teams healthy.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
And honestly I think we'd have a lot of trouble against the Knicks and Atlanta still.
So that’s a sobering prospect.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
Miami is the only one that really gives us match-up problems
Chicago to a lesser extent. If we play a 4/1 offense though then I say Chicago is off that list and Miami is the only one left and that’s because of them having three of the top 10 perimeter defenders on one team.
"If Dwight spent more time practicing and less time b!tching, then maybe he’d be playing a little better." -My Mom
by BigMac12111 on Dec 20, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I like Otis, but he needs to go.
He doesn’t man up and take responsiblity fir his “turrable” transactions. When the team’s backs are against the wall one day he says “our guys just need time together to build chemistry” the next day he says “I’m always looking for opportunities to get more talent this way” then he says “Our guys are always better with a year under their belts in Van Gundy’s system…” If that’s the case, why does he give up on guys prematurely? And to SVG, play the new guys. They might not be able to hang with the opposing team but neither are our vets. We have young, athletic guys wasting away on the bench. Sure, they can’t stay with players like Wade and LBJ, but who can? Liggins, Wafer, Harper, have a better chance of recovering than Redick, Turk, Q and J- Rich. I, by no means am I close to fire SVG. But he needs to give a little more rope. This team could be great.
by Memphissleek on Dec 20, 2011 2:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions
sorry i dont like to do this but would this be a possible trade?
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=72cwnn5
then use clark and harper as the backup pf harden can create his own shot and i think maynor would be a nice backup pg
possible?
maybe….but I’ll be damned if we use our two most valuable trade chips on that. I’d rather see us create a nice package and get 1 star.
by DenyTuesday on Dec 20, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I like those guys
but I like our guys better. I don’t think this would work in our favor.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
by cgsimone on Dec 20, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
why would the magic convert two useful players on reasonable contracts into one useful player..
…oh yeah, thats right!
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 20, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
my thinking was harden can create his own shot better than redick and has 20 point potential and maynor imo could be a real steal at point guard, and i dont think the magic can get a star with those players but thats my humble opinion so i will take your guys word and forget that trade
by turbo champion on Dec 20, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
i meant 15 to 20 point potential on harden
by turbo champion on Dec 20, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
i thank harden is the best player in the trade i think people think there things/stuff is more then what its really worth. to me jj will never be givin a fair chance by svg and rhino just goes downs and chunks up 30 foot 3,s. niether jj or ryan is a starter harden would be maynor might be soon so i like jj and was a doubter but svg is weird. i do this trade because we need harden more then jj or ryan
We'd better get a helluva lot more
for JJ and Ryno (our best two shooters) than a borderline starter and a backup pg. Harden and Maynor are nice players but c’mon man there’s no way that trade helps.
Bass really isn't any better than Big Baby
I think it was a good move tbh. I don’t know about Otis calling Von Wafer one of the NBA’s most prolific scorers, but Big Baby is a decent pick up. As you well know Otis is handcuffed to some untradable contracts and can only do so much. I liked this move.
by William_H_HOLLA on Dec 20, 2011 4:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
He's handcuffed to some untradable contracts...
THAT HE WROTE. Don’t you dare go feeling bad for Otis or start pretending he has any idea what he’s doing.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 20, 2011 5:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Otis is a terrible GM, 2nd only to Kahn
But you couldn’t have expected much from him this offseason, which is why I think this F from ESPN is offbase. He had nothing to work with.
by William_H_HOLLA on Dec 20, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
He had nothing to work with because he gave himself nothing to work with
Either way he’s responsible.
by Evan Dunlap on Dec 20, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
Think of the F as a Lifetime [lack of] Achievement Award for Otis.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 20, 2011 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
I trust Stan Van Gundy's opinion
Stan Van Gundy on Glen Davis:
" I think clearly a great deal of toughness. Secondly (and I think this is huge) a guy who will help the other players play better at both ends of the floor. I think he does it a couple of different ways:
Number one, on the defensive end he’s very smart; he’s ahead of the play, he’s a very good team defender; and he’s constantly talking – which helps everybody else.
On offense, he really knows how to play the game; he moves the ball; and he is a great great screener. He really thrives on (even his own game comes from) forcing defenses to do things because of his screens and then he gets open.
So, I think the two main reasons why we wanted him here where great toughness and that he helps his teammates play better. "
by MagicLA on Dec 20, 2011 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree on that too.
Bass was a stupid player on the court. I like him individually, but in a system that’s heavily reliant on playing together, he failed. He’s much better in a more freestyle situation… which is why I think he’s going to be bad in Boston. That is, unless Doc plays a more freestyle system with his bench guys. But really, I can’t wait to see how bad he is with their defensive rotations.
"We just want to chill" - Chris Bosh.
Proud Jameer and Rashard apologist since '07
Also I think the trade has more importance when you contextualize it with next summer in mind.
Next summer, Brandon Bass has a player option and Ryan Anderson will be a restricted free agent. Meaning that it is very likely we lose both to free agency.
• Bass (26) is a solid big on a good team and will be in his prime through his next contract – he will surely opt out knowing he will get a better offer than $4M.
• Anderson (23) is a near 7’ sharpshooter on a rookie scale contract; he will for certain get large offers.
Next summer the Magic will have to sign new contracts for the (1) starting PF and the (2) back up PF position; and since Bass has been playing (3) back up C you also have to sign a new contract for that role. All this is before you even factor in the very likely loss of the starting C position.
Glen Davis fills two of those needs at a very reasonable $6.5M. He is secured through his prime at this price. And most importantly, he provides leverage and insurance for next summer’s impending free agency negotiations with Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson.
Except Glen Davis is
The loss of Bass or Anderson next summer is reasonable, but not both. Especially since Anderson would be restricted and the magic could (and presumably would) match any offer outside of crazy money. And since the magic are the only team that appears willing to offer crazy money, they should be safe, unless they start bidding against themselves again.
What would Anderson’s market value approach….8 mil, 9 mil? He’s not getting more than that unless he blows up this year, which is unlikely since SVG seems intent on starting Davis.
Also, playing multiple positions offers genuine value. Playing multiple positions poorly does not. 6.5 mil for a backup PF/C on team headed towards rebuilding is not good value.
If you need any additional proof, ask yourself: how many teams would have traded for Bass or Anderson on their current contracts? How many teams would take on Davis’ new contract?
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
You're being short-sighted.
How many teams would trade for Bass’ contract right now? I bunch, he’s a steal. His contract will go up next year. How many teams would trade for the contract Bass is on next yet? Not as many.
I think it will be hilarious if Bass signs a contract worth, say, 7 mil a year for 3-4 years in the coming off-season. All these people whining about how bad this deal was financially will look ridiculous.
Davis is locked in at $6.5 for 4 years — basically through his prime. That’s a very solid deal for the quality of player Davis is.
In fact, both Davis and J-Rich are good deals financially. The 4th year for Richardson seems like a waste…but I’d imagine the only reason he got that 4th year is so he can be used as a trade chip for teams looking for an expiring contact.
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 21, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So the justification for overpaying Davis is that they would have to overpay Bass next year?
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
You guys are missing the point
The purpose here is to bitch about Otis Smith using hindsight and the ESPN’s trade machine. Don’t bring baskeball or business reasons.
by ArmandoT11 on Dec 21, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Anderson is starting tonight
Bass and Anderson will get offers ranging at minimum from $5 – 7M and if either have a good season the higher end of that range is certain. If Anderson has a breakout year he would be in the range you propose ($8-9M). Either way, if the Magic are in rebuild mode, neither are getting matched.
Also, Von Wafer was picked up for pennies, that exchange is an important part of the primary trade and has to be added to the assessment of that trade.
Von Wafers contract adds insurance for the possible trade of either or both of our shooting guards up to the trade deadline. Plus if we have to rebuild his contract is super cheap and perfect for that situation.
by MagicLA on Dec 21, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Why wouldnt the Magic match offers for Anderson if they lose Dwight?
especially if he blows up and starts getting 8-9 mil offers? He’s young, talented, long and plays a style of basketball that lends itself very well to age. Plus, this is the same team that offered rashard lewis more than twice that for being the exact same player. Different circumstances yes, but Anderson would also be entering his prime (rather than leaving it as lewis was).
Plus projecting Bass’ FA market: Bass at 7-8 mil > Davis at 6.5. Not that I would want either, but if I had to pick the lesser of two evils, it would be Bass.
And you presume that both the magic’s guards would be trade bait at the deadline, but who would touch richardson at his new contract? The new CBA becomes exponentially more punitive towards the last year or two of that deal.
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Take Dwight out and Anderson's value to the team drops.
He will get great offers from teams with a post presence looking for a stretch 4 complimentary player. I have yet to see Anderson have any kind of post game nor can he create his own shot. He needs a dominant post player to stretch from or a quality passing point guard to find him shots – we would have neither.
Davis has more roster value to the team than Bass, now and in future circumstances: (1) Dwight requested him (2) he can play two positions (3) has performed very well in the playoffs and in the clutch…Bass not so much.
• As for the shooting guards, I said either or both.
If any trade occurs, it is very likely JJ gets moved because of his game and his team option contract.
J Rich, to a lesser extent, will have value to teams looking for offense for the playoffs. He can be traded for a player worth $8 million or to a team below the cap for a player making as low as $3 million.
It is also worth noting, that JRich’s contract is under the new CBA and thus this season can be stretched to 9 years = $2.5m annual cap hit instead of $6.5m. In the summer, it can be stretched to 7 years or $2.65m annual cap hit.
But most of his minutes are with the 2nd unit,
where he gets little time with D12 and has Duhon, Arenas and their ilk passing him the ball.
Also, how many of these teams ‘with a post presence looking for a stretch 4’ do you presume there are? And how many of them will the cap space to make RA a crazy money (8-9 mil) offer? Not many, I posit. Ergo, orlando still is the overwhelming favorite to land him irrespective of how well he does this year.
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
That is incorrect.
Anderson and Howard played 577 minutes together. Anderson and Bass played 201 minutes
All of Anderson’s minutes where with a lineup of :
• PG – Nelson (604) or Arenas (377) or Duhon (74)
• SG/SF – JJ (356) or JRich (548) or Hedo (645) or Arenas (70)
• C – Howard (577) or Bass (201)
Aside from any team who ends up with Dwight, here are teams who would be potential suitors for Anderson and have cap room as of today:
ATL
DEN
HOU
MEM
MIL
NJ
OKC
PHI
POR
SAC
TOR
UTA
That’s not counting teams who will try to get under at trade deadline for the very deep free agency of 2012
But you're also not counting that many of those teams have young talent to extend
If OKC have enough cap room to give Anderson $8m after re-signing Westbrook I’ll eat a chair.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Especally given Durant's going to get the Rose-boost on his extension
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
OK
Atlanta are over the cap
Denver have room but they’re paying Harrington and Andersen near enough $12m, they’re not going to add Rhino @ $8m
Houston will have cap space, probably
Memphis have none after keeping Gasol
Bucks are realistic
Nets are unlikely given they’ll either have Howard and Williams eating half their cap, or be awful
Philly have Brand unless he opts out
Portland I would say are very unlikely as long as LMA is eating all the minutes
Kings have Cousins
Toronto have Bargnani
Utah have Jefferson
So the Bucks and Rockets are probably the realistic options – any other team would be massively overpaying a 15 minute a night guy, don’t have the cap room, or are the Nets who would only be players if Howard and Williams are there, but probably can’t afford to have Anderson as an $8m third man from a balance perspective.
Is there a risk we lose him? Of course. Is it huge? I doubt it. I think he’ll get offered 5 years and $30m and we’ll match.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
• Atlanta is barely over the cap and hasn’t used their amnesty. More importantly they are still undecided what they will do with Josh Smith (who is expiring in 2012).
• Boston has no one signed past this season except (Pierce and Rondo + Bass has a player option).
• Charlotte will have a ton of cap space and no starting calibre bigs
• Cleveland will have a ton of cap space and only Verajao and 2011 rookie T Thompson
• Dallas will have cap space and will be looking for a back up PF
• Detroit will have cap space and will be looking for a back up or starting PF as they will only have Charlie Villanueva
• Memphis can be under the cap depending on what they do with Mayo and various other role players that are RFA but most importantly their PF backup D. Arthur just tore ACL (out for the year) is RFA next summer. So they will definitely be in the market for a young floor spreading PF and can easily make cap room to do so.
• Milwakee will have cap room and will need a back up/starting PF as Illyasova is free agent next summer.
• NJ/Brooklyn wil have cap room and need at a back up PF.
• Portland will have cap room and will need a back up PF plus they will only Oden as their only other big.
• Sac will have cap room and need at least back up PF as they are using Cousins at center mostly.
• Toronto will have a ton of cap room and they play Bargnani at center with A Johnson but no other bigs so they will be looking for another big
• Washington will have cap room and only have Blaitche signed in 2012
Well, now you've added a whole heap more teams
I’m not going to go through every one.
I will correct you on two things, though – Josh Smith is expiring in 2013, not 2012, and Atlanta are a solid $4m over the cap with 8 players signed for 2012/13, meaning even if they amnesty Smith, cap holds will get them back up to only about $6-6.5m under the cap…and the Magic will match a deal that pays Anderson only that much.
Even if the Hawks were dumb enough to amnesty a vastly better player in Smith to sign Ryan Anderson. Which they’re probably not.
I don’t know what you think the Grizzlies can do to free cap space. They’re committed to $47m just between Randolph, Gay and Gasol. The cap will only be about $58m again next season – and Conley and Allen combined are another $10m. If they manage to fit another 7 players into the remaining $1m of their cap space, and have enough room to sign Anderson as a free agent, I think the league office will be very impressed with their accountants.
All the backup team nonsense is magical thinking. Nobody is going to pay a backup power forward who can’t play any other positions $8m a season. Anderson might get a contract like Davis got from Orlando as a backup – but the Magic will match that. If he leaves, it’ll be for starter money, which teams like Portland or the Kings just won’t pay with their front court talent.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 22, 2011 5:33 AM EST up reply actions
Well that list is only going to get longer and longer as injuries etc. alter the 2012 free agency landscape.
• Why would Atlanta amnesty Josh Smith? If they are going to do that it would be Marvin Williams which would put them below the cap.
• Josh Smith’s contract is an expiring contract the season of 2012-2013. This is according to the most reliable salary source I know Shamsports. The summer of 2012 through the trade deadline is when his contract has value in a trade. They have to decide wether they are going to let him walk or trade and get something in return. After that who cares, it would have no relation to the discussion we are having about Anderson who is a restricted free agent in the summer of 2012 not 2013.
• Memphis can renounce OJ Mayo’s $7.4 million QO and like I said they have to make a decision on Arthur their primary big off the bench because he tore his ACL and is out for this season and next summer they have to give him a new contract. Their top 8 player rotation is set for the future except for that spot – they will spend over the cap as long as they don’t go into luxury tax which they are far from even with both Mayo and Anderson.
• The 1st big off the bench is hardly a valueless roster spot. Specially for teams with playoff aspirations.
You are contradicting your original stance which was the whole reason this exchange began. You said the Magic overpaid Davis (who can play two positions) and now you are saying the Magic should match Anderson if he gets offered a contract like Davis’. According to your parameters that means to overpay him – like u said he is a back up and only plays one position: plus I would add can not defend. Which one is it?
Goddammit
If the Hawks amnesty Williams, they only get $8.8m off the cap – which will only put them $4.8m under the probable cap, with just 6 players signed! They’ll then be assigned 6 cap holds by the league for about $3m, which gives them all over about $1.8m left in cap space.
Which means they don’t have ANY cap room and will get to just use the MLE instead!
We’re talking about Josh Smith’s contract because he’s under contract in the summer of 2012 when Ryan Anderson is a free agent. That means the Hawks need to pay him in 2012 and will NOT HAVE CAP ROOM. The only way Smith is relevant is if the Hawks trade him this season for an expiring contract in 2012. Are you really telling me that you think Atlanta will trade Josh Smith for nothing more than cap room so they can give Ryan Anderson $10m a season?
Really?
Really?
If they trade him for something instead of nothing, they’ll have to pay whoever the something is, which means they have no cap room.
Memphis don’t have cap room. Mayo is utterly irrelevant – they can waive him and will still be over the cap. They’ve committed 75% of the cap to three freaking players. They have about $58m in guaranteed 2012 salary already – and only 5 players signed! If they’re over the cap, they can only offer the MLE. Anderson is restricted – the Magic will match an offer for $5m a season. Absolutely guaranteed.
And I’m not contradicting my original stance at all. The Magic overpaid Davis because he’s mediocre. The Magic will match Ryan Anderson at (expensive) backup money like Davis is getting because he’s very good (much better than Davis). They may not match $8m or more, unless they see him as a potential starter (which he is. Davis is not.) And if he does get that money and a starting role and the Magic don’t match, fair play and best of luck to him.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 22, 2011 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
Whoah! slow down. How about you read and think before you open your mouth.
This is exactly what I said – word for word from my list :
• Atlanta is barely over the cap and hasn’t used their amnesty. More importantly they are still undecided what they will do with Josh Smith (who is expiring in 2012).
From that you extrapolated that I said Atlanta is trading Josh Smith’s contract for cap room to sign Ryan Anderson for $10 Million.
REALLY?!
WE are NOT talking about Josh Smith’s because he’s under contract in the summer of 2012 when Ryan Anderson is a free Agent. YOU are contextualizing it that way.
My point in that statement was that Atlanta’s PF position is in flux. Simple as that – all else was your invention.
J Smith’s has been rumored in trades for the past two years. Everyone knows that Atlanta has been shopping him for a starting quality center for a while. If that happens they will need a back up PF. Which is why I put them in the list along with other teams that might need a starting or back up PF’s – and have or can potentially clear cap room.
*sigh*
The only think I care about is Atlanta’s lack of cap space, I don’t give a flying frijole about what player they’re playing at PF. Right now, they’re over the cap. If they trade Josh Smith and get players back, they’re still over the cap. If they trade Josh Smith and don’t get players back, they’re complete idiots.
Either way, I’m not remotely worried about them signing Ryan Anderson because they would have to be the stupidest franchise in NBA history to put themselves in a position to do so…and even then they’d struggle to clear enough to make an offer Orlando wouldn’t match.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 25, 2011 5:36 AM EST up reply actions
There are so many variables and scenarios you're missing or just unable to grasp it's not even funny.
At season’s end Atlanta can amnesty Williams ($8,287,500) to get below the cap (at $52,635,000). So they can offer a 4 year deal beginning at $5,365,000 plus 8% annual raises. Hoopshype
OR
If they don’t amnesty Williams, because the Hawks are within $4 million of the salary cap they are eligible for the big MLE which allows them to make an offer sheet for a restricted free agent for a contract of up to 4 years starting at $5.75 million per year / + 8% annual raises. ($5.75m / $6.21m / $6.71m / $7.25m)
Because the Magic have Bird rights, they can match that amount. But of course doing so would be ridiculous because that would mean that the Magic would have two (back up to fringe starter level) power fowards – both signed long term for $25-30 million each. This on a team that very likely will be in full rebuild mode.
AND
….that is before we even talk about scenarios in which Josh Smith is moved. Yes the Hawks have to take back players, but those return contracts can be expiring this season or they can be 50% value – if the trade is to a team under the cap.
Because they have both the amnesty and the luxury that Smith’s contract is expiring next year – they will have an incredible amount of flexibility to maneuver around the cap and on top of that the potentially traded player is one that many teams actually covet.
Here is just a couple quick examples of a moves they can make either at the trade deadline or at season’s end and give them more than enough cap room and a roster need to outbid Magic for Anderson :
Josh Smith for Brooks Lopez and Memet Okur
or
Hinrich + Smith for Lopez + Farmar + Okur
Get the point.
Why would we lose RA in FA?
He’s restricted, unless someone offers him absolutely stupid money we’d easily match.
Bass could opt out and we’d be able to resign him with Bird rights or, if the market went over his value, sign someone else. Not a problem either.
And that’s without getting into potential vets and Orton who’ll be around too.
If Smith traded for Davis because he was scared of Bass and/or RA leaving, well, I just don’t see how it makes any sense to massively overpay Davis just in case we had to pay or lose RA or Bass.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Did you just say Orton is who you'd use as your insurance.
You know that the last game Daniel Orton played in was as a junior in high school right?
He was hurt his senior year in HS and hurt his freshman year in college; and then the Magic drafted him and sent him to the D League where in his second game he re injured his knee and for the third year in a row he was out for the season.
That is a great backup plan.
Every year bigs get dumb contracts, Anderson is a good young big – his contract offers will be stupid – and if the Magic match they will be even stupider.
So
We did well giving Davis an insanely dumb contract because it means we might not have to give Bass or Anderson, both much better players, a dumb contract in the future.
I’m not saying I can’t see your logic…just that it’s not very persuasive.
My point about Orton is not that he’s going to be any good, just that there are an awful lot of alternatives to massively overpaying Davis. It’s not like if we didn’t sign Davis to a stupid deal, the NBA never lets us sign or draft anyone over 6’5" again. You don’t give Davis that deal, you retain all your flexibility. Maybe you catch a break and everyone spunks their money on guards next summer and you can bring Anderson back for $5m or so. Maybe someone over the cap with a front court need offers a good young talent so they can S&T for Bass. Who knows? All you do by locking up Davis is force yourself not to get a good deal.
Which is stupid.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
The failure in your argument is that your are assuming BBD is being overpaid.
4yr/$26m for a good quality big entering his prime is not overpaying.
There is the “ideal” fantasy world where bigs get paid their value; and then there is reality….the very “real” NBA salary situation where bigs are always paid more. Last season, OKC gave Nazr Mohamed $7m, San Antonio gave McDyess $5 and those are the well managed teams.
by MagicLA on Dec 21, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think you're *massively* overrating Davis
He’s average at best.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
Uh, yeah he is
He’s mediocre, paid like good.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
So, we disagree.
Also, I think you’re a bit biased on this subject.
by Mr. Hyde on Dec 22, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Everyone's biased
That’s what an opinion is.
Is Davis bad? No. But compare him to Brandon Bass, the player he’s replacing:
PER – 11.8 v 15.6
TS% – .506 v .560
Reb % – 12 v 12.9
Assist % – 6.1 v 4.9
Stl % – 1.7 v 0.8 (these last two are evidence of the quality of his hands, which are genuinely good)
Blk % – 1.1 v 2.3 (but he gives it right back with blocking)
Turnover % – 11.7 v 12
O Rtg – 103 v 111
D Rtg – 102 v 105
Differential rating – +1 v +6
WS/48 – .105 v .130
Now, maybe you’re not a stat nut and you value Davis’ locker room presence and “making his teammates better” more than little things like scoring, rebounding, shooting accurately and blocking. And that’s fine.
I’m just saying $2.5m extra a year is an awful lot to pay for someone who is only really good hands and “intangibles” away from being a substantially worse player than the guy he replaced.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 22, 2011 5:42 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, but you do understand that Bass' new contract will be much heavier than the one he has now(?) potentially much heavier than the one Davis got?
Plus we already have that kind of player in Anderson, who is, by the way, much younger and has bigger upside than Bass.
On the other hand, in Davis we get a solid, high energy player, on a reasonable contract, who is entering his prime, is more team oriented, is a better defender, better passer, and can easily cover two positions. Remember(?) we still need that backup center behind Dwight.
And yes, I understand we’re all biased – though I disagree that having an opinion and being biased is the same thing – but if you go back and read everything you wrote so far on this subject, you’ll see that you’re being a bit too biased :-)
How am I being biased?
I’m judging Davis on what he is, that’s all.
Anderson is nothing like Bass at all, I’m not sure why you’d compare them.
And signing a player on a bad deal because a different player might get a bad deal in the future is just moronic management. If Otis was worried about losing Bass because someone overpaid him, I have no idea how overpaying Davis is the solution. To avoid the possibility of having to overpay Bass, we guaranteed overpaying Davis? How does that work?
We could have got a backup center for Dwight for a one season rental for $2.5m a season, and kept the better player in Bass. We could have traded Bass for a better player than Davis. We could have waited to see if Orton has any game. We could have done a lot of things – instead we overpaid a lesser player for more years.
Davis isn’t on a “reasonable” contract – he’s horribly overpaid. That sort of money should be for average starters or elite bench players, not mediocre energy guys. I don’t care how good he is for a locker room, he’s not worth 30% more than the MLE. $4m a season for 3 years would have been a reasonable contract.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 23, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Dwight wants be a lap dog to D Will than be a leader
I d rather have Wade on Orlando than Howard because at least Wade went and got James and Bosh to join him in Miami during FA
I've always wondered...
if Dwight loves it in Orlando so much, why didn’t he tell the media he was 90% sure he’d be with Orlando next year and get Deron to join him instead?
There is only 1 Dwight Howard, there are (now) quite a few great PG/SG in the league – he should be telling people to come to Orlando, not the other way around.
by DenyTuesday on Dec 20, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree.
He could have get us another superstar, with or without Otis, but I don’t think he ever saw himself retiring in Magic uniform.
How are we gonna get these players when Otis Smith has us 20 million over the luxury tax with crap players that have no trade value
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 20, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
I don't defend Otis...
… but you know, we weren’t always “20M over the luxury tax”. And we certainly didn’t get there because Magic organization didn’t try to put winning team around Dwight. My point being when the star of your team sees himself long term in your organization he is usually more actively involved into bringing talent to the team. And especially nowadays. I don’t remember Dwight ever did anything in that respect other that whining, and now asking to be traded away. I’m just saying.
Dwight has tried...
He said in a interview when training camp had first started that he’s talked to guys that he’s played with in All-Star games and the Olympics to see if they’d want to come and play with him and they’ve wanted to (a perfect example of this was a couple of years back when Chris Paul wanted to come and Dwight expressed his want for the organization to bring him in)..and for some reason or another Otis wasn’t willing or able to get him in a Magic uni..
I think you have that backwards
D-will wants to live in Dwight’s shadow. ORL never believed in keeping cap room to make a run at big FA’s for some reason (otis) so Dwight never really had a chance to recruit anybody. If ORL could somehow move turk’s contract i could see them making a run at d-will, but that’s a big if. Whenever ORL’s love affair with Otis ends, they should go after Donnie Walsh. He took an even worse cap situation in NY and turned it around in 3 years.
by William_H_HOLLA on Dec 20, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
if that's true...
Why doesn’t D-Will force a trade to Orlando?
It would be hard to say we don’t have a better offer for D-Will than Jersey has for Howard. JJ, Jameer (plus whatever) for Williams is a much better offer than Lopez for Howard.
ORL has nothing of value to trade
Nobody would want JJ and Jameer’s contracts, especially for a top 3 pg in the league. Otherwise maybe he would. Pains me to say it but I bet deron gets traded to OKC at the deadline for westbrook.
by William_H_HOLLA on Dec 20, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Can't tell if serious or being a troll?
“JJ, Jameer (plus whatever lol) for Williams is a much bettter offer than Lopez for Howard. Thanks for the laugh dude
I think we're fooling ourselves .
Magic are about one pretty good player from being a top 3 team in the East, but to get that player they would have to blow-up the current lineup and trade half of the depth for one or two players. There is a chance that would put them right back where they are now, as a perpetual lower seed in the playoffs. I would much rather see them rebuild this team from the ground up. The best way to do that is to trade Howard, as much as I’d hate to see that happen.
The Magic should just trade Howard, Turk, and Duhon to New Jersey for Lopez, and whatever else they can get. Howard is an irreplaceable player, one would never get what he is truly worth to a team back for him. If they did it early, we’d probably end up as a lottery team in a deep ’12 draft.
I've rec'd so many good comments above,
so all I have left to say is, good work Evan.
And fire Otis.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 20, 2011 7:08 PM EST reply actions
Why aren't we talking about Andrew Bogut?
I’d love to see the Magic go to the Nets and say:
“We want Andrew Bogut more than we want Brook Lopez. Make a 3-way trade happen.”
Maybe something like:
Lopez, reserve player, draft pick to Bucks.
Bogut, starter, draft picks to Magic.
Howard and Turk to Nets.
The players and draft picks could be a combination from both the Nets and the Bucks.
I dunno…just thinking out loud. If the Magic can’t keep Howard, I’d rather see Bogut in pinstripes rather than Lopez if at all possible. I’d be curious if they’ve even looked at him as someone to target…
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 20, 2011 8:30 PM EST reply actions
Bogut?
I thought about Bogut being a better option compared to Lopez as well. He is a much better defender though underrated and rebounder compared to Lopez. Offensively, without looking at any statistical evidence I’d say they are pretty comparable.
But the question to ask is why would the Bucks do such a deal. Really no benefit to them other than for salary cap reasons. And considering Scott Skiles is a defensive coach the team would be worse of with Lopez than Bogut.
Also, as far as the Magic are considered Bogut is older than Howard, Lopez and even Bynum. So that is definitely something they might not be interested in if they are looking to rebuild. The other thing with Bogut is that he is still not 100% recovered from that arm injury he had 2 seasons ago. That really limited him last year and if I’m not mistaken he has been quoted at saying he is still not fully healthy yet.
by AdnanBashir on Dec 20, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Bogut is a better Center than Lopez on both ends.
Defensively Bogut is probably closer to Howard than many on OPP would like to admit. Howard is still better, particularly in conditioning and quickness…but Bogut is probably the only guy in the NBA that I’d say is even “comparable” to Howard on the defensive end at the 5.
On the offensive end, I know he showed real promise until he hurt his elbow. Then, unfortunately he rushed back to playing and so he was hobbled for most of last year with it. I wouldn’t put him as dominant a force as Howard on the offensive end — mostly because Howard is so quick for being a tank — but I remember many talking about Bogut’s game being well rounded. High praise for someone so good on the defensive end. If it weren’t for that elbow injury, and his not taking the proper time off to heal, I think he’d clearly be seen as the #2 Center in the league right now.
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 20, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bynum and Bogut are the two best centers after Dwight
They’re also the only two in the league right now with the defensive presence to lessen a Dwight leaving the Magics and still trying to run the 4-1 as their base. They’re also probably 2 of maybe 4 or 5 centers with legitimate franchise potential the others being Demarcus Cousins and Monroe depending on how they progress (Cousins is more of a mental thing) and maybe Gortat depending on his offense and how it improves. Neither trade is entirely too enticing for either team especially because since the picks will be very late 1st rounders and the players given back are nowhere near equal value. That said a Gasol and Bynum trade is equally unlikely unless the Lakers are gonna get back a true PF in return who can start and play with Dwight.
Also...as for age: He's only a year older than Howard.
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 20, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Older is a problem
Even one year older is not good from the Magic’s point of view. Let’s say Orlando makes a trade such as this they more than likely won’t be good for another 3 or 4 years. By that time Bogut would be 30 or 31 years old. Maybe past this prime at that point. Looking long term I don’t think he would help the team when they actually might be a contending team again.
As far as Howard being one year younger we all know that there is no comparison between Howard and Bogut. Any team with Howard pretty much is a 50 win team and unfortunately that cannot be said about Bogut. So even though we would have Bogut through this prime his long term it might not lead to a legit contender in the east.
by AdnanBashir on Dec 20, 2011 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have a past his prime Bogut
Than an in his prime Lopez.
Besides, it doesn’t really take 4 years to turn around an NBA franchise if you have draft picks, cap room and a solid centerpiece like Bogut to build around. Look at the Clippers – three years ago they were ghastly, two years ago they drafted Blake Griffin, suddenly they’re Western Conference contenders.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
They had drafted well before Blake
was even on their radar. Gordon and DJ were two very good pieces they picked up and for a small market team it’ll take longer to rebuild. The Clips have also had a ton of lottery picks which they hit on two and got a good value pick in DJ. It took em about 4 years and some serious luck to turn that franchise around
Why would it take longer for a small market team?
It’s not like it’s any harder to draft well in a small market, or that Orlando is a bad destination for free agents.
If we could lure Hill and T-Mac, we’ll lure FAs in the future.
I actually think the Clips had horrific luck and still turned things around. Imagine how good Griffin would be if he’d played in his proper rookie season.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Clippers are the worst example of a quick turn around
Clippers have had 2 winning seasons since 1984 so not exactly a quick turn around. It has taken them a long time to get a team that excites anyone. And Orlando doesn’t have any cap space at the moment either. Don’t know what they will get back for Howard. If they trade with the lakes for instance they won’t really be gaining any cap space. With the Nets who knows…if it is a three team trade don’t know what other pieces they will add and what their salaries are. And any draft picks they trade for won’t be the #1 pick.
I have no interest in what happened 25 years ago
Clips had a decent squad four years ago with Brand and friends, got shafted with the whole Davis/Brand FA mess, so they blew it up, dumped salaries, drafted well, got a bit of luck and now they’re the hottest squad in the league.
Despite having Sterling for an owner. Imagine what the Magic could do with a supportive owner who’s not simply trying to leach money out of the league. Well. Imagine what we could do if, y’know, we had a competent GM…
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bucks aren't dumb enough to trade him
I’d have Bogut in a heartbeat.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
Do we really want a worse ft shooter than Dwight?
At least Lopez can do that better. Bogut shot 44% from the stripe last year. Otis could sign a panhandler from in front of Amway Center (gawd I hope he doesn’t read this and get any ideas) to do betterat the foul line. Plus I’m worried about Bogut’s age (27) and injury history (76 games missed in past 3 seasons). Lopez has WAYYYY more upside and is much less risky of deal.
I still want to see if we can get Gasol and Bynum though!
Because Bynum hasn't had any injury issues in his career...
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Dec 21, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Don't think of it as Bynum and Gasol joining the Magic
If that trade were to happen, the Magic could flip both of those guys into other pieces/draft picks.
If the Magic must trade Dwight to the Lakers, it better be for Gasol & Bynum and 2 picks, and the Lakers better take Duhon & Turkoglu (I'll miss you, Hedo!!!)l.
True, but when Bynum IS healthy,
He wins rings.
I think you mean he 'collects' rings
by being the third option behind Kobe, Gasol and sometimes even Odom
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Lopez is a better scorer, sure
He does absolutely nothing else better. Bogut’s light years ahead of him defensively, has a vastly better post game, is better passing out of double teams (he’s way better than Dwight at that too), he’s a much better rebounder and is a far smarter basketball player.
The free throws were a problem for him last season, but that was as much as a confidence thing and an elbow rehabilitation thing that anything system. Over his career he’s pretty similar to Dwight.
As for injuries, apart from that horrific elbow shatter he had a few seasons ago, Bogut’s been reasonably reliable for a big man. And that was a fluke. If it’d happened to his leg maybe it’d be a problem, but he’ll keep rehabbing it and it’ll come back to him. Age? Sure, he’s older, but he takes care of himself and big men age a lot better than guards in general.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
All I Want For Xmas
Is for Otis to be fired right now.
Please Santa! I beg you!!!
by McD5 on Dec 20, 2011 11:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Remember last year when everyone thought we were going to the finals?
lol times have changed.
I like
what they have done so far, but it’s clearly not enough. I have a feeling they are either working hard trying to make that miracle deal to keep Howard or to make a suitable deal in trading him. The additions of Harper and Wafer to me seemed like preparation for moving our two most tradable players outside of DH, JJ and Ryan. It doesn’t seem like that is going to be enough to bring in someone to make Howard happy though, so I’m bracing for the bad news.
Otis has dug this franchise deeper and deeper into the hole, because of his friendship with Arenas.
Believe it or not he had something pretty good before making those two deals at last season’s trade deadline. Imagine having Gortat, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, JJ and Jameer as trade chips, Vince Carter as an expiring contract for this upcoming offseason (keeping him on the team this year for scoring), and the amnesty to use of Rashard Lewis after this year. I don’t know the exact cap numbers, and won’t check them because it’ll make me even more depressed, but it seems like we would have had a decent chance of clearing enough room to go get Deron Williams or Chris Paul.
I’ll never understand why Otis hasn’t been planning for this upcoming offseason. He should have been aiming for cap space to sign another max player, but he’s been handing out $ to Chris Duhon, QRich, JRich, and Glen Davis. Makes me sick to my stomach that the majority of posters on here can come up with better options than Otis.
Supporting from Hawai'i
by 808duck on Dec 21, 2011 12:56 AM EST reply actions 11 recs
Maybe he didn't have time to wait for this offseason?
Maybe he was pressured to immediately do something? By say, Dwight and his expiring contract? I’m not defending Otis – we all agree that he made some horrible deals for us – but let’s look at things from more than just one angle.
Where's that guy that seconds after the trade changed his signature to "Otis Smith you have doomed this franchise for years, we are all more stupid for having witnessed it"??
He definitely knew what was coming! Also, can we start just calling it “the trade”, as in “the decision”. Trading for Arenas and Turk had the same horrible results.
lol, hey there
I think you mean me. I miss that Billy Madison quote.
I like to watch.
by MoveThoseChains on Dec 21, 2011 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Still, we get to be all smug and stuff now
I’m pretty good at being smug after being proved right…
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
lol, yeah it was you, now I remember. Well said man.
Now it’s easy to crticize Otis, but you said it as soon as the trades were made, while many of us where hesitant and giving him the benefit of doubt.
I hated those trades from the first moment they were announced.
I will admit I stopped posting here after the Magic went on that 9-game winning streak, because I felt I was soooo very wrong about not liking the trades, and that maybe Arenas and Hedo really were what the Magic needed.
These days I wish I had been wrong for real.
Magic Fan since the 1992-1993 Season.
Caracas, Venezuela.
by North of the South on Dec 21, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Monta Ellis just became a major headache
Apparently there are cell phone pictures to go with the lawsuit. I’m guessing we aren’t making a move for him hehe.
Yugly.
Does anyone have Monta's mailing address?
i think we should all chip in for a ‘thank you for saving us from you’ gift basket
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
On second thought...
maybe the magic can trade Hedo for Monte and then void Ellis’ contract on the basis of conduct unbecoming yada yada…
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
sweet his trade value just went down!!!!
go get him
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 21, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Dwight been a little jerky lately. Want to keep him though, right?
"...sometimes your eyes lie to you..." ~SVG | I'm on Twitter
by magicfaninTN on Dec 21, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
look at his twitter page
he only responds to nets fans unless hes talkin crap to magc fans which he always used to be below him to do, alsohe is no leader, he is a follower just like the rest of them and I feel if baby loses his playfullness he has what it takes to be a leader of this team, he will never be the highest scorer but could demand greatness from those around him, Bas didnt have that in him.
by Magical-OverHauL on Dec 21, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
exactly my thought when i was reading that today
we need a scorer and I almost would wanna flip Gasol to Houston if we got him for Martin, Lowry and lee
by Magical-OverHauL on Dec 21, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
What do you guys think about Millsap or Jefferson?
If you google you’ll see that due to Favors looking vastly improved (perhaps a fluke 25/12 debut) and Kanter looking physical…they might turn to a youth movement.
For the record…I’m not trolling, but I am a Nets fan that would rather keep Lopez than that scumbag of a Center you guys are being held hostage by. Centers that hit roughly 80% of free throws and can swish 17-20 footers while sick from mononucleosis are rare these days.
I just wanted your opinion because I think if you can pull off a good trade for a quality player (Big Baby was total garbage), Dwight ends up staying.
You mean the same guy who explained his regression by admitting he was just being lazy last year?
you mean that guy?
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
I think he was referring to Lopez.
People asked at an interview if mono was the reason his rebounds dropped, and he said no he just was a little lazy because most of the time he was fighting with Humphries for rebounds. Trust me….I want to keep Lopez just because I want the Brooklyn talent to be homegrown.
I can see why you guys get defensive…probably have had bad-knees Bynum and softy-Lopez stuffed-and-sold down your throats 1,122,12312 times already. Like it would matter when Otis is running the show.
by cosmic convict on Dec 21, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
That’s him. He’s not worth ANYthing near Howard…if you guys traded with us you’d be complete idiots…but after seeing what Howard is doing to you….it’s refreshing to have a player just come out and be honest and admit he was lazy playing next to a rebounding machine that averaged 14/14 with Deron (Humphries).
by cosmic convict on Dec 21, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Dude you seem hell bent on keeping lopez..
so why trawl around these boards? Look, he’s a good player, though unlikely to ever be great in any sense, and I’m sure he’s a fine person and I can only imagine the hilarity that would ensue if he got back together with Anderson, but you need to understand how f-ing depressing it is to trade down from D12 to the lopez’s and bynum’s of the world. Just leave us be in our time of misery.
by WhatAboutFran on Dec 21, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry
I jumped on here to see what the mood was like because on the Nets’ board it’s delusion and overvaluing of our players. It’s gotten disgusting because every thread has turned into a Dwight Howard one….when in actuality keeping him in the East would be horrible.
Any logical artillery you guys give me here I just use as an objective logical point, and only with the members from there that joined me in our fantasy league.
I mean, by absolutely no means necessary is Dwight gone. All you need to do is play hardball and trade for a wing that can score. The guy loves Orlando. As for Lopez….he’s a good kid, but will never be a superstar. Before Deron Williams our plan was to rebuild…it worked for OKC so I was pretty amped about it. We’re being held hostage just like you guys…the only difference is you’ll get something from Howard and we’ll get nada before Deron splits to Dallas.
by cosmic convict on Dec 21, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Don't pay attention to WhatAboutFran.
As long as you’re not trying to convince us how we should accept the trade – as if that was our decision to make – you’re more than welcomed to post here. At least as far as I’m concerned.
You'll never win a title with Lopez
You can win one with Howard.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I like Millsap
Don’t like Jefferson. Neither would be particularly good fits on Orlando, who still desperately need someone who can get his own shot in isolation on the wing more than anything.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
What? Al Jefferson's post game is still fantastic
Jefferson would give us a post presence that other teams will have to respect
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Dec 21, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, no doubt
With Dwight – his offense is too post oriented, I think they’d be too similar
Without Dwight – his defense is too exposed
It’s more a fit thing than actual dislike. Millsap’s a year younger, much cheaper, already better and has a more varied game. Still not great defensively, mind.
I basically want a Chris Bosh or Dirk Nowitzki alongside Dwight, or a younger, higher upside guy if we’re in rebuilding mode.
by eltharion_doa on Dec 21, 2011 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
I like Millsap too, but he is kind of undersized for his position, isn't he?
Jefferson is a waste. I would never want him in our uniform.
I think the era of big bigs is over, for the time being at least
I mean, technically Dwight’s undersized by the traditions of his position, but these days you’d much rather have skill and athleticism.
Kinda weird how smalls and wings are getting bigger, whilst bigs are getting smaller…
by eltharion_doa on Dec 22, 2011 5:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Orlando Pinstriped Post
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Contact Us
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Dexter Pittman’s elbow to Lance Stephenson’s throat is just one of three nasty hits in Miami/Indiana’s Game 5 (VIDEO)
- Behind the Box Score, where the Miami Heat split the Indiana Pacers in two
- Metta World Peace calls Mike Brown fat
- Tracy McGrady is in a Chinese beer commercial (VIDEO)
- The 10-man rotation, starring Bob Cousy
