Ford and Hollinger: Orlando Magic Rank Seventh in NBA Future Power Rankings
by Evan Dunlap on Aug 5, 2010 12:30 PM EDT
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ESPN's John Hollinger and Chad Ford have once again teamed up to create the NBA's Future Power Rankings, which is a "projection of the on-the-court success expected for each team during the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons." Their outlook for the Orlando Magic has dimmed since the last time they performed the exercise, as Orlando has dropped from third to seventh this time around.
Teams are rated on their players (400 points), management (200 points), money (100 points), market (100 points), and draft (100 points).
Here's an excerpt of what they had to say about the Magic. Because the rankings are subscription-only, I am unable to post the full text:
The only major concern is the serious money the team is taking on. Orlando is a small market, but the team is well into the luxury tax and probably will remain that way for a while unless ownership demands a budget slashing. For now, it hasn't, and with that, solid personnel moves under GM Otis Smith and the exacting coaching of Stan Van Gundy, the Magic get good marks for management.
Hollinger and Ford add that the Magic are "stacked for the long term" thanks to Dwight Howard. They also advise paying attention to Ryan Anderson, "who could become a better version of Troy Murphy." Thanks to the attractive market and new arena, Orlando is "already near the top of Chris Paul's short list of future destinations and could pop up on other players', too."
They ranked Orlando fourth in players, 12th in management, 28th in money, fourth in market, and 26th in draft.
The teams with rosier outlooks than the Magic are, in order, the Miami Heat, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, and Portland Trail Blazers.
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Third in the East
I could deal with that and as soon as Vince and his contract is ejected, I’m sure it’ll increase.
I HATE how the media D-rides Daryl Morey and the Rockets.
I can’t read the article so I don’t know there reasoning, but I don’t see how they fit into that group. It seems like they get too much credit year in and year out. I understand Morey is a good guy and the stat guys love him, but it seems like they get a free pass every year.
One Freaken Second
They've had good teams, especially considering the ridiculously bad luck with injuries.
They went on a 23 game winning streak with Yao gone for half of it with an aging T-Mac and a bunch of role players, basically. They took the Lakers to 7 games I believe without T-Mac and then losing Yao in that series too.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
yeah but no one has any idea whether or not yao will ever be healthy/play at the same level again
they aren’t going to be some powerhouse. i certainly wouldn’t pick them over the Magic, would you?
Not for this season
Given their knack for drafting and finding solid free agent role players, I think they look good in the long term. If I were writing the list, off the top of my head, I’d have Houston fifth on my list, behind (in alphabetical order) LA, Miami, OKC, and Orlando.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I'm not defending the choice of them being placed ahead of the Magic.
Just their front office in general. There is a valid point raised about the salaries and the flexibility we lack moving forward, unless Otis can make some moves with Bass and/or Gortat. We can’t keep paying them to have no impact (in Bass’ case) or little impact (in Gortat’s case). Vince’s contract coming off the books will help, of course.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
yeah they have a good front office
but their players arent exactly the highest caliber
even with yao do you think that is a championship team?
If healthy, it is certainly possible, imo.
Not my first choice in the West, but on the radar.
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
by magicfaninTN on Aug 5, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah but given his track record, especially now it is unlikely he will be as good as he was before all the injuries
hes had what 3 or 4 surgeries now on his feet/knees? (dont know his medical history)
I said "if"
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
Yeah.
I don’t see how Houston has a brighter outlook than Orlando. If Yao can play like he did before his injuries, maybe, but I think he’ll be a shell of his former self and when he’s done, it will take them years to find another Center as good as him.
I'm a dude!
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The reason is simple
Otis Smith has given some absolutely horrendous contracts to people who either don’t deserve it, or to people who don’t deserve it + don’t even fit the roster. This restricts the ability of the Magic to do anything in the future. No one in their right mind would take Lewis’ contract, NO ONE. It is a huge max level contract for someone who is a good role player. That’s just one example. The contracts given to Gortat and Bass are not on the same level, but still quite ridiculous. Either these players are not worth their contracts, or they don’t fit in.
This I believe is the reason that Orlando is rated 7th despite having the person i would choose over any other to start a franchise with. Yes, i would choose Dwight over Lebron. I would choose a young Kobe over Dwight, but that’s not possible. Still, with this obvious advantage, the huge mistakes that the front office has made pretty much restrict the team’s ability to make huge impact moves going forward. Most notably, somehow getting Carmelo or Chris Paul to come to Orlando, or free agents on their level. Orlando has no way of doing that. That’s a problem. Without someone of that caliber, i just don’t see how Orlando can win a ring.
*beep* this has been a recording...
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
by magicfaninTN on Aug 5, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Orlando is rated seventh
Because we play in one of the league’s smallest markets, and because we’re a lousy drafting team.
Not because Smith gave Lewis a big contract. Even if he was paid market value, we wouldn’t have any cap flexibility. It’s a straw man argument. Stop making it.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 6, 2010 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Funny I thought Otis Smith has made some decent and bad picks.
But, really, he’s done so well in the FA department that his trades and draft haven’t needed to go as well. Although I think half of his trades have worked out decently to pretty well.
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They lost two stars to injury.
You saw how losing one star to injury affected the Magic. It’s definitely a credit to Morey that he’s assembled the supporting cast to keep that team going… it’s less of a credit to Morey how much of that team’s payroll is tied up in guys like Kevin Martin and Trevor Ariza now. If Yao comes back, maybe they’re a title contender… maybe. If not, they don’t exactly have the cap room to rebuild THAT quickly.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Those ESPN rankings/projections are much like college football rankings
Complete garbage.
Never trust a fart
by AB's triple double on Aug 5, 2010 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This.
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
by magicfaninTN on Aug 5, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
OKC!
As much as I would love to rank Orlando #1, Oklahoma City is by far the future of the League. Kevin Durant will be the best player in the L in 4 years, and Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green are solid help. They boast the “loudest arena” in the NBA as well, so you know they have great fan support.
Bah
Kevin Durant is great now, but how can you speculate where he will be in 4 years? Penny was great in his youth but injuries derailed his potential. And anyone with talent can score in buckets when they are the focal point, let’s see how this young guy handles winning games in crunch time in the playoffs before we crown him. Also, that “solid help” got them an early playoff exit, players’ affections change quickly after a few of those results.
If you were a man I would punch you, right in the mouth.
It's not selling him short
He is saying wait til the guy does something before you crown him the king. To say that he is going to be the best player in the league in 4 years and OKC is the FUTURE of the league is outlandish to say the least.
How is that outlandish?
They have the best young trio in the league other than Miami’s, not to mention Ibaka as a great young big. Difference is they don’t have everything tied up in max contracts with no flexibility like Miami. They have a really good coach and a really good GM. That sounds like a sure-fire way to be the “future” of the league.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
It's outlandish because
there really is no evidence to back it up. Durant in his only playoff appearance of his career shot 35% from the field. He basically shot OKC out of the playoffs. Granted he was going up against Artest who I think is the best perimeter defender in the league, but neverthless, you gotta step up if your Durant.
Also, you said it yourself: “other than Miami’s.” That’s a pretty big stumbling block, no?
Fortunately
In the future, there will be more than one team in the NBA. The Heat and the Thunder can both be the future!
by eltharion_doa on Aug 6, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
it was the first time he had been in the playoffs
you are incredibly short-sighted if you don’t think durant is going to be an absolute monster
6-24 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
Hmmmmm who was that? Oh, maybe I’m just conjuring things up in my mind.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
that was the first time any of those players had been to the playoffs
OKC is going to be a monster in a couple years
And Denver
was one Anthony Carter away from possibly beating the defending championships the year before, and then they had an early exit the next year…I just think it is silly to project #1 in any category that far in the future is all. I agree that they have a greater chance than others, just don’t like false bravado predictions, aka the Lakers 2012 Champions, etc. They may have the highest probability, but the game of life doesn’t always play by the laws of probability.
If you were a man I would punch you, right in the mouth.
If Durant had just 15-20 more pounds on his frame..
He’d be UNSTOPPABLE. And he’s still putting in work. Know this.
He's only 21 and he's almost unstoppable.
ORL★NDO M★GIC
-SEMINOLES-;;-►
by Wally Balls 407 on Aug 6, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The Lakers?
ORL★NDO M★GIC
-SEMINOLES-;;-►
by Wally Balls 407 on Aug 7, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh. Durant may be the best scorer in the NBA.
But he’s nothing special on defense or as a passer. (And his 36% three-point shooting this year calls his 42% three-point shooting last year into question. Not that 36% three-point shooting is a problem… but 42% would’ve been something special.)
Jeff Green is nothing special in general. And for me, Westbrook’s poor decision-making trumps his obvious physical gifts. (He’s a 24.9% career three-point shooter. That’s…excusable. What’s not excusable is that he’s shot 233 of those threes in 164 career games. Is he looking for that shot?)
I mean, they have talent, but either none of that talent is overly efficient on offense, or Westbrook isn’t good at getting them high-percentage shots. Maybe they’ll learn better. Maybe they’ll get a big man who can control the paint. (Ibaka looks promising, if raw — but he’s really more of a PF.) But a lot of things are going to have to break right before they’re a championship-level team.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Yeah, I meant except Durant. Sorry about that.
But the rest of the team’s pretty lousy. Harden has some potential in the long term, due to his strong three-point shooting, but Westbrook almost makes up for Durant’s efficiency single-handedly… he’s down there in Baron Davis territory, and he doesn’t seem to be getting any better. As for Jeff Green, he’s in no man’s land… he shoots too many mid-range jumpers to ever be efficient.
I mean, what I guess I’m saying is that this is very much a one-man team right now. And Durant is less suited than a LeBron James, a Kobe Bryant, or even a Dwyane Wade to run a one-man team… he’s awesome at scoring, but he can’t orchestrate an offense.
And Westbrook is really problematic to me… he’s too gifted to not play a major role on his team, but I haven’t really seen anything he’s good at. He has a huge impact on the game, but as often as not, it’s a negative one. Unless that changes, he’s a very risky player to have. And I don’t see them trading him, so…
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
I say give them some time.
That team is very young. But seems committed to learning and improving. Good chemistry and another year of continuity.
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
by magicfaninTN on Aug 5, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Westbrook just finished his second year in the league.
And he came out as a very raw 19 year old. I think he’s A LOT better than what you’re saying about him. Defensively he can be a nightmare, and he can drive on almost any PG in the league right now using just his physical gifts. He’s certainly not one to shrink away from big moments as seen in last year’s playoffs. On top of that, his experience in this year’s world’s is likely to be important in him improving in the near future as well (being surrounded by great players and coaches has a tendency to do that).
Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka and Green are going to be a GREAT supporting cast for Durant. Hell, they already are really good.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
I don’t think saying Westbrook is “not one to shrink away from big moments” is a good thing. With his atrocious efficiency, he should be yielding “big moments” to more efficient players. Which I’ll admit he does… to Durant (he kind of has to) and Green (eh). Sometimes.
But if you ask me, the fact that his scoring went up and his assists down in the playoffs is not a very good sign at all. It reads like the line of a guy who is convinced that he’s a bigger option on that team than he should be, and the more stress he’s under, the more he monopolizes the ball.
(This may not be fair, given that he was fairly efficient against the Lakers… which is not surprising given the Lakers’ PG defense.)
And no, he can’t “drive on almost any PG in the league right now using just his physical gifts.” I mean, maybe he can, but he can’t finish very well.
I will grant him his defense, though. He’s very good at defense.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
I understand some of what you're saying about Westbrook, 3.3
Last season, a bad TS% (49.1%), a bad eFG% (42.8%) and very inefficient, as you pointed out.
But, his assists per 36 minutes went from 5.9 his first season to 8.3 last season, and his PER last season was an above-average 17.8, up from 15.2 his rookie season; not bad for a 21 year old.
He won’t be 22 years old until November; he should be able to improve on the several weak areas in his game in the coming years since he’s so young now.
Slick made a couple of good points in his post about Westbrook’s future improvement.
I’ll be watching his assist numbers this season especially.
Orlando Magic... 2010 Eastern Conference Finalist
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by Mike from Illinois on Aug 6, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
PER is very dependent on counting stats.
Westbrook accumulated more counting stats, therefore it went up. PER has very little capacity to determine what got those stats… physical dominance, smart play, dumb play, ball-hogging.
And to me, what I’m looking at here is a very worrisome sign for a point guard. The point guard’s sole concern has to be finding the high-percentage shot. Which leads me to believe one of two things about Westbrook: either he doesn’t know that calling his own number is almost never the high-percentage shot (this seems unthinkable to me), or he does know and he’s shooting it anyway (this seems worse).
I’m not saying he can’t pass. he can pass. But if he doesn’t have decision-making, the passing is going to be fairly irrelevant in the long run.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Again, he's very young.
How many guys come into the league at such a young age playing SG and are then running a team spectacularly as a point within two years? As Mike said, his assist per 36 numbers already went up a lot from his first season to his second. I expect that to be even better this year, although I think his scoring efficiency will either stay the same or go up slightly, if at all. Either way, being coached by Nate McMillan, D’Antoni, Coach K, and Billups, and playing with guys like Rondo and Rose… That’s going to be huge.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
Maybe.
I’m not really questioning his passing ability, though. His shooting is evidence that his decision-making might not be where it should be, but yeah, he has the raw passing ability to be a strong PG. (In a system designed to get him assists — check out how many of the Thunder’s shots are assisted.)
Then again, he did cut down on his threes in the latter half of last season, and his FG% went up. I mean, ideally, you’d want him to get an efficient three-point shot… but if the three-point shot he has is a 29% three-point shot, well, that’s worse than removing it from his arsenal.
I mean, I don’t know the Thunder that well. I can say there are better options than Westbrook calling his own number, but it’d be difficult to go to the best one any more than they already do. And as I said, it’s not like most of the team is made up of high-efficiency players. Maybe, instead of not looking for his own shot, Westbrook can just focus on improving that shot.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
I agree with most of this list except...
having Houston ahead of Orlando. Hell, I wouldn’t even say the Lakers have a brighter future than the Magic. By 2013/2014, the Lakers will have $50 million committed to a 35 year-old Kobe and 33 year-old Pau, both of whom will have declined considerably. Since the salary cap is around $57-58 million every year, it will be tough for them to add replacements for their stars via FA and their lack of valuable assets will make it tough for them to get another star via trade or S&T.
I'm a dude!
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Where game threads turn into online chat rooms.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPlLyVuMf7U
I have a problem with OKC being above Orlando
Durant is a huge plus, but OKCs biggest downfall is its OKLAHOMA CITY! Have any of you ever been there. Its like stepping into a time machine and going back to 1950.
But since Kevin Durant is committed to OCK...
he’ll certainly draw players to go there (vets wanting to win rings, since OKC will be well over the cap once KD hits his new deal and once Russ Westbrook gets paid). I don’t really have any beef with the Thunder ahead of the Magic but my gripe would be that OKC hasn’t done much in the playoffs whereas the Magic made it to the Finals and the Conference Finals in back-to-back years.
I'm a dude!
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Where game threads turn into online chat rooms.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPlLyVuMf7U
I'd agree with that.
Though it is “Future Power” rankings. I suppose Green and Westbrook will be more renowned than Lewis and Carter by 2012.. (supposing the world still exists as we know it or whether we’ll all live in giant ships anchored in Tibet)
I find it odd that they knock us for using money in a small market
but then they rank us 4th in the NBA in the market column. That confuses me.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
Middle Market
Our market is the 19th largest in the country. So in terms of generating revenue that is why we are considered a small market. The population is just not there to generate revenue like a New York or LA or Houston. However we are “desirable” due to the fact that we have great weather, no state tax, and Orlando is a place you don’t mind having your family there. That is why we are fourth. And why New York and LA are the two ahead of us. Miami combines everything to make it number one.
That makes sense.
Thank you for the explanation. I’ve lived in Orlando for 7 years and I’ve lived in Central Florida my whole life. I have friends and acquaintances from Miami that now live in Orlando. We all agree that Orlando feels more like a basketball town and the fans are a little more passionate than Miami fans. Although I’ve known some pretty passionate Heat fans (my cousin included). So I think that makes us a little more desirable in some ways. Miami is without question more of a party town though, so I’m sure that helps to lure players.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
learned my lesson well
..i won’t mind the rankings as long as we got it done in the playoffs.
well said...
It’s like comparing what really happens in the league compared to what happens in NBA 2K..
Tell me about it, in 2K10 I took the Magic to the Championship in All-Star mode.
( ._.)
Magic Fan since the 1992-1993 Season.
Caracas, Venezuela.
by North of the South on Aug 6, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t like the rankings. Not enough credence to Players, or atleast misjudged when it came to Orlando. I’m a pretty objective guy, try to be rational and truly think it out, and… I would always take Dwight Howard over any other player in the league. I suspect LeBron makes it questionable to some degree because he is a good defender and also multi-faceted in offense with his passing, but no one else is very close at all. Kobe, Wade.. his ages.., Durant, Melo,.. average defenders, not multi-faceted in offense except in scoring points, Dwight,… younger than most these guys, best defender in the world, and by C position, that makes him a team defense just by himself (see Orlando’s starting roster and compare with team defensive stats), offensively goes for 20 (about 6-10 less a game than wing scorers, but racks up the team fouls for more FTs for teammates and opponent foul outs/trouble) and is still improving everyday (with Hakeem Olajuwon this summer). If Wade and LBJ weaken each others stats, then the MVP (pointless as it is, I like Finals MVP more, but still) is pretty wide open for Dwight if the media voters recognize defense justly or Dwight goes out and averages 24+ a game anyways.
durant will win it this year, id almost bet everything i own on it
barring injury, the thunder will get better, and if OKC gets the 2-3 seed with a high 50s win total, he will win it
There's more to a franchise than one player
I agree, if I were picking any one player in the league to start a team with it’d be James or Howard, but that doesn’t mean Orlando, as a franchise, is in the top 2 for future prospects. I don’t know if I’d necessarily have Orlando 7th, but I certainly wouldn’t put us on a long term level of the Lakers or Heat.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 7, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
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