JJ > VC
by farfromfl on Aug 20, 2010 5:51 AM EDT
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JJ Redick is better than Vince Carter at the game of basketball. Kelly Dwyer agrees with me. I found it amusing that BDL sent a strong message on the subject. When doing the top 30 positional rankings this year, they broke it down by tens. Vince is on the title picture for the 21-30 crowd, and JJ is on the title picture for the 11-20 crowd. I'd love for Vince to play backup minutes and come into the game with a bang every day. Get some rest, then dunk on someone's head. Interestingly, JJ is ranked 17th, right behind Ray Allen at 16. I've included the links below.
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Defense
I don’t mind JJ starting, but we only trust him on defense against Ray Allen. If he can guard Wade, or Stephen Jackson, Joe Johndon, or any other two guard besides Kobe, I would have him start. The only reason he’s not starting is because of his hgt. If he had Vince’s hgt, he would’ve been starting b4 we got Vince and would be compete with Courtney Lee. I think Vince would thrive at being the Sixth man, and it will prolong his career. He’ll be well rested when everybody else is tired.
I'm Mr.Magic
I disagree with KD here. Vince is the better player.
by Evan Dunlap on Aug 20, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i tend to agree with this
vince isnt as bad as he was made out to be
all they seemed to take into account was his mediocre first couple months and a bad playoff performance
if vince had killed it in the playoffs (even if we ended up losing anyways) he would be a lot higher on this list
its exactly like all the people complaining that chris paul should be #2 behind deron williams in the point guard list
they forget how amazing he can be when he isnt injured (vince wasnt injured, but most people only take into account recent performances).
VC was injured much of the year.
First the shoulder then the ankle.
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
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by NC Magic Fan on Aug 20, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
ankle was first
and he didnt actually miss that many games due to the injury, although it obviously affected his play severely
I agree
rashard lewis did the worse in boston series..vince carter was a really good and clutch player in new jersey two years ago..i have no idea what happened to him..i hope another year in the magic’s system will bring out the old vince
Vince has been a clutch player his whole career. He missed two free throws and suddenly he's not?
He had big clutch moments against Miami and Atlanta this year.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 21, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Like I said it over and over and over... 90% is mental and 10% is loss of strength/more bodyfat
At least from his standpoint. The other obvious thing is the fact that the Orlando Magic coaching staff is not using him like they should. They should force feed him the ball IN THE POST and in ISO situations (I won’t even mention the 1/2 and 2/5 pick and rolls).
Vince doesn’t have even NEAR the same confidence in his shot as in New Jersey. In New Jersey he felt like he OWNED that arena… and he acted accordingly: swagger, arrogance (positive), if you could read his face you’d knew he felt like he was the best player on the floor genuinely.
That’s not the case in Orlando where he just “wants to fit in” and every one of his shots it’s a “should I take this…?… maybe I … I mean… ok… I shoot it… hope it gets in…” kind of shot. That screws up everything.
Sometimes I wish he would hear what I talk about in here… he’d be soooo much better.
If he gets over this “indecision” of shooting (he did that against New Orleans), then that’s it. Work on his strength a bit this summer and it’s all perfect.
I’m not sure it’s going to happen though and it’s just extremely annoying for me.
by Raptorel on Aug 23, 2010 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd.
I feel like we should put together a powerpoint and march down to Stan’s office.
Vince has been working out with J.J., QRich, Shard, and co. so hopefully he puts on some muscle. Calves, quads, shoulders.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually it's the posterior chain that provides the power
Think hamstrings and glutes. The idea is to use the glutes as prime movers in hip extension. Otherwise you can become quad dominant and put a lot of stress in the knees (since the quads extend the knees). It’s too much to talk about in here about that though.
How do you know he’s been working out with the guys?
He needs more muscular support for his knees. It's not like he's lost all explosiveness, he just doesn't trust it anymore. But I really can't make the argument that any of his muscle groups needs much more work than another.
And uh, Twitter.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Except that in October-December 2010, he did try to dominate the ball, and it failed miserably.
Then January happened, and I’m sweeping January under the rug, because I don’t know that it proved anything beyond that he was in a slump and possibly hurt.
And then in February-March, he took fewer shots, passed the ball more, and the Magic were the best team in basketball. (Oh, also, Vince was a really efficient shooter in those months, as a side note.)
Then look at April. Slight uptick in Vince’s shots per minute, slight decline in his efficiency. He wasn’t as terrible as he was in, say, December, but…
I know this is only one season, but there seems to be a direct correlation between Vince’s role in the offense, his shooting percentage, and the Magic’s success as a team. And it’s, um, not the one you’re describing.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
It's a combination of things
I bet he thinks about his shot more when he shoots more and that screws things up. It also could be the other way around. It also could be a coincidence.
I could bet it’s also a matter of conditioning. He looks de-conditioned and he seems to tire a lot over the course of the game, so that I BET affects his shooting.
It’s also interesting that he missed a lot of the shots he would normally make in his sleep, and I believe the reason for that is because he doesn’t have the strength in his legs like he used to.
So, you see, it’s a combination of loss of strength and loss of confidence because of the loss of strength/new environment (new team).
Now, can we make correlations between all these facts and the Magic’s success? I have no idea.
This is all speculative.
All we know is that whatever Vince was doing in late winter/spring worked, and whatever Vince was doing in fall/early winter did not. Maybe it’s psychological, maybe it’s physical.
(Though if it’s psychological, I believe the record shows pretty clearly that Vince did better once he settled into a team offensive concept as opposed to running isos and taking every shot in the fourth quarter, etc.)
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
hopefully JJ's rating in 2k11 show's this
Never trust a fart
by AB's triple double on Aug 20, 2010 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
Dwyer's rankings are pretty much all personal opinion.
Vince is in a whole other stratosphere as a basketball player, even in his advanced age. You can’t reasonably make the argument that J.J. is the better player.
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only more efficient
in which case he should be #1 because he was the most efficient sg last season
Vince had a higher PER. by a couple points. And again, if you throw out January, which was a complete anomaly, they're not even close.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 21, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
I don’t believe for one second that JJ is better than Vince. He just shoots a higher percentage. (he shoots a higher percentage than most people)
This is one of those cases where I'll have to see more to believe it.
Sure, JJ was very efficient (largely against opposing teams’ backups), but he doesn’t have that kind of efficiency in his history as a player. Show me one or two more seasons where he does that, and I’ll believe it’s expandable to a full season as a starter.
Right now, it looks like some of his success is due to improvement as a player, but part of it might be luck, or the results of being a backup. It might not, but it might.
Meanwhile, I think a lot of people are forgetting how great Vince was for the second half of the season. The first half of the year for Vince was completely uncharacteristic of his NBA history. And his post-All-Star break stats suggest to me that you can’t say he’s suddenly washed up… nobody washed up can do what Vince did for three straight months.
Meanwhile, there’s very little question that Vince is the better passer of the two. And neither is worth commenting on as a defender, one way or the other. (Yes, that represents an improvement for JJ.)
I guess that’s the thing for me. They’re both good players, but Vince at his peak > JJ at his peak (so far). And given that Vince approached that peak for the entire second half of last season, I don’t think we can say it’s beyond him.
Now, if JJ maintains his 2009-10 form into a second season, and Vince looks more like November Vince than March Vince… then this is worth discussing. Until then, I’d say Vince has earned his spot enough of the time that he still gets the benefit of the doubt.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
by 3.3seconds on Aug 20, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
I think Carter realized that it’s to the detriment of the Orlando Magic if he shoots the ball 17-20 times a game (along with poor efficiency), like he was doing the first half of the season.
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by Mike from Illinois on Aug 20, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Vince is more efficient with more touches.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 21, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Not with more shots.
Or, rather, Vince might be more effective with more shots, but Vince having more shots doesn’t make the Magic more effective.
I strongly believe that the de-emphasis of Lewis and (to a lesser extent) Nelson in the offense made it very difficult for the Magic to call on them in the playoffs. (Nelson overcame it much of the time… he has the ball, he can overcome stuff. Lewis, by contrast, was criminally underused all year.)
Of course, there were a lot of reasons for that. Early-season injuries and suspensions, for one. But Vince demanding the ball was a huge one. I don’t know whether that was good for Vince.
Though he definitely shot less in the second half of the season than he did in Oct.-Dec. 2009… his lowest shooting volume per minute of the season came in January, but that was a case where things were so bad, of course he stopped shooting. March was second-lowest, and February was still well short of all the ’09 months.
Even if that wasn’t true, though, Vince is going to have to get used to passing the ball more. Another 3.1 APG season will not cut it.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
How does a HUGE increase in Vince's efficiency not help the team?
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 23, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
But Vince isn't more effective when he takes more shots.
He’s more effective when he takes fewer shots.
(Or at least he was last year. Don’t want to generalize, but it appears that’s the way it works.)
Meanwhile, both Jameer and Rashard frequently took too few shots to be really effective last year. (Especially Rashard.) Giving Vince more shots would continue to stifle their contributions to the offense.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
The Magic has, as a team, a totally different dynamic than what Vince is used to in New Jersey and Toronto
Those two teams in his career were heavily PERIMETER oriented. The dynamic of the game for these teams was more a perimeter game, with SOME inside-outside game (almost none).
So it’s a totally different zone for Vince to play in with Howard and the Magic.
But yeah, I agree with you. It’s just that sometimes you have to ride the hot hand, if that happens.
Yep
I don’t know if I agree with Dwyer, but I’d like to see Redick given a chance to start so we can find out.
Carter would be an excellent impact substitution, and he can dominate the ball more playing with the reserves. If it doesn’t work out, change it back.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 21, 2010 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
That'
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 21, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what Redick is. Lights out shooting off the bench.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 21, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the reserves need a spot up shooter
They’d be better off with someone who can create his own shot. The problem our second unit has is that we’re utterly reliant on our reserve PG creating, far more than our primary offense – because none of Pietrus, Anderson or Gortat can get their own shot. Redick can a little bit, but nowhere near as much as Carter can.
I think Redick’s wasted on the bench, and I think Carter has trouble finding his rhythm as just one option in the starting five. Both these problems might be solved by Carter becoming the sixth man. I think we should at least trial it.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 24, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Why not start Duhon for defense and shooting and bring Jameer in to play 30 minutes off the bench?
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
He uh, had that one good year :D
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Every position needs a spot-up shooter.
If we can do that, I mean. “Create his own shot” is just a fancy way of saying “take a contested shot instead of finding the open man.” Sometimes it has to be done, but it’s nothing we want to force.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
Good point
It’s nice to have someone who can do it, but the coaches should make a plan, a secondary plan and a Nth plan for the team to score in a play.
Nonsense
Dwight Howard isn’t the best big man in the league because he’s a good spot up shooter.
Shooting is one ability that is useful. It is of marginal usefulness to our bench, where we don’t have the playmakers to draw players away from the shooters to create the easy shots.
And there’s a difference between forcing something, and having someone capable of doing it at all. Our bench unit’s offense breaks down more often than not, largely because the players on it aren’t very good at running an offense – Gortat and Pietrus, in particular, are scheme breaking offensive players, though for differing reasons. If your offensive plan is more likely to break down, you’re more likely to need someone to take over and get a contested shot – someone who can improve what is otherwise a bad shot into something at least marginal.
The reserves don’t have that, which is why their scheme breaking down is an absolute deal breaker for our bench scoring, and given the players we bring off the bench have a much greater tendency to break the offensive plan, I’d prefer to see them play with someone who can take over.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 25, 2010 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Dwight Howard would be a drastically better player with a reliable jump shot tho.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 25, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Which comment does this apply to? The bench or Dwight with a jump shot?
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
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by NC Magic Fan on Aug 25, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You said, “Dwight Howard would be a drastically better player with a reliable jump shot tho.”
I said, “I disagree.”
How would adding a reliable jump shot NOT make him drastically better?
When you look at the great offensive centers of the past 20 years – Ewing, Olajuwon, Robinson, Duncan, Yao, Shaq – only one didn’t have a complete offensive arsenal: Shaq.
He was too big and powerful to stop. No one could do it. Dwight is not Shaquille O’Neal. He’s 3 inches shorter and 50+ lbs. lighter. Kendrick Perkins could not guard Shaq one-on-one. 37 year old Shaq couldn’t guard 25 year old Shaq one-on-one.
The point I’m trying to make is that in this era there is only one Shaquille O’Neal, and Dwight can never dominate like he did because he’s smaller (and the game is called differently.) That being said, he can handle 28 out of 30 teams.
The rest of those centers had solid jump shots that opened up their post games. If Dwight had the same, how would he not be unstoppable? He has the quickness to get by anyone, but they can stand 5 feet away because they know he can’t shoot.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 25, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
And given the success of the Horrible Little Hook Shot he was using far to often last year...
…I think the jump shot may be a lost cause anyway.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
Maybe, maybe not
The point is that a position must not “need” a spot up shooter if the best player in the world at that position isn’t one.
by eltharion_doa on Aug 25, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Argh.
I meant to say ’every position except center." Did I miss that clause? Sorry for all the fuss, folks!
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
JJ deserves a period of starting. If he does well enough on both sides of floor, we have a long term SG with Jameer, Dwight, Rashard and can work with that unit’s chemistry more. It might be ideal to keep JJ as a 6th Man, but unless VC does absolutely terrific, JJ should permanently start if he first does it well experimetally. The difference between JJs defense and VCs is that JJ defends better. VC can go for 40 once in a season, but JJ is consistent and would get more assists on top of it. If stats are highly valued, then shouldn’t JJ start? Or finish over VC?
by derekk on Aug 20, 2010 10:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Redick is NOT a better defender than Carter.
Can he do a better job on Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton, sure. But he has physical limitations that you can’t ignore.
Vince can go for 40 multiple times a season if he gets the ball enough. He didn’t last season. He only had 10 games with 20 or more shot attempts.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 21, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn't need to "go for 40".
That’s Vince’s advantage: he’s a good enough passer, and a big enough threat without the ball, that he can have an impact on the game even without shooting. (Remember his role in the 1/2 pick-and-roll… that’s his play, not JJ’s.)
I’m not saying JJ is a bad passer, or that he’s not a scoring threat, or that his spacing isn’t good. He’s just… not as much. Carter is an impact player in a way that JJ just isn’t… he makes more things happen. The question is, can he make enough of those things good things as opposed to bad ones? Last year was inconclusive, but I’m optimistic.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
You make a ton of good points, and may be right overall, but last year was not inconclusive, it was a failure. And VC was a big part of it, not the only, but still a part.
The second half of last year was not "a failure."
I find it hard to dismiss Vince’s season as “a failure” when, for three months of a six-month season, he was exactly the player we needed.
Now, if you want to discount those three months in favor of the other three months in predicting his performance moving forward, that’s your decision. But I don’t think we can know that he’s going to fall into another half-season slump. Maybe he will — it’s certainly a concern. But maybe he’s learned to work within the system. Hence “inconclusive.”
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
In the first 27 games of last season...
…Vince had eight games when he attempted 20 or more shots. The remaining 55 games he had only two games where he attempted 20 or more shots, including that incredible 48 point effort against the Hornets on February 8th.
In only two of those 10 games with 20+ shot attempts did VC shoot 50% or better, and his three point shooting percentage totaled under 33% in those ten games, so his eFG% was below average those ten games, also. The Magic did post a respectable 7-3 record in those 10 games, though.
From February 1st to the end of the regular season, Vince had 13 games of 5 assists or better, compared to just seven games of 5+ assists from the beginning of the season to January 31st.
The Magic’s record when Vince had 5 or more assists was a superb 17-3.
One of the main reasons why the Magic finished off the season so well was that Vince understood that it’s better for the team that he not take so many shots per game and to distribute the ball more. I’m optimistic also he will take that same mindset into this season.
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by Mike from Illinois on Aug 22, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Only thing JJ's better than Vince at is shooting
Not really sure who has the edge defensively, but Vince is a better ballhandler, passer, and can create his own shot. I think people get too wrapped up in how good of a shooter JJ is and how rare/valuable excellent shooters are, they tend to overrate him.
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Aug 22, 2010 9:13 AM EDT reply actions
Great thoughts from everyone.
Thanks for taking the time to comment.
First off, you’re right, these rankings are deffinitely opinion. KD certainly did his research, but this is him playing GM, not a statistical breakdown. In the same vein, it’s my opinion that JJ is going to outperform Vince this year.
I agree that Vince should be the better player, and has been the better player for stretches. Vince’s physical gifts, natural talent, and experience far outweigh JJ’s, and that should be the end of the argument. However, after watching Vince last year, he went a long way toward convincing me that he hasn’t got enough left in the tank to properly take advantage of his physical gifts and natural talent.
Don’t get me wrong. Vince Carter is not washed up, and I don’t believe that the comparison between him and JJ is cut and dry. I think that one of them is slightly better than the other, and that we may change our minds about who’s on top several times this season. I think that JJ’s consistancy will end up making him more valuable in the starting 5.
I think (my opinion) Viince is potentially good for +/- 15 points a night for the Magic, based on his performance and affect on the offense. I’d say JJ is good for about +/- 5. It’s all about consitancy. Taking Vince out of the starting 5 gives you a starting unit that will give you a pretty consistant product night in and out. He won’t dominate the ball. He’ll play well enough to keep us from cussing most of the time, and he’ll make some dagger shots. Unless he’s improved dramatically, he’ll still get stuffed a lot if he takes it inside. He’ll still get elevated over. He’ll still have to rely on taking charges. Honestly, I’m still satisfied with the result.
Vince going to the 2nd string allows him to dominate the ball in the same way it was argued that JJ can dominate the ball on that unit. He’ll be able to rest the old bones. He’ll be asured of fewer violent collisions every night, and therefore, might be cajoled into driving the lane more. He’ll move the ball well, and he’ll be the focal point.
I think this suits Vince more. Playing with Duhon (pass first please), Pietrus, and two of the bigs (I don’t expect to see two reserves down low too much at the same time, based on my recollection of last season, but I could be wrong) Vince will be able to really cut loose, as long as he mixes up his game like he’s supposed to be able to do.
That’s really my complaint with Vince. I believe he can have a great ll around offensive game, scoring with fair efficiency from midrange and deep, and coming up big inside several times a game. I believe that he needs all three aspects to really be effective at any of them, and I feel the Magic need him to be effective at all three aspects in order to put maximum pressure on opposing defenses.
Again, my opinion.
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You bring pretty good points
As big of a fan of Vince that I am, it could be a good experiment with him coming off the bench. He did came off the bench in New Jersey like 2 or 3 consecutive games as Lawrence Frank was experimenting with that and he played very well. But obviously they decided he’s too good for that, and he was.
I think it brings a different dynamic to a player when he comes off the bench. He can see how the game unfolds better when he sits for a couple of minutes on the bench before getting into the game (that is – assuming he cares about that and he’s not laughing and talking crap). He could bring up an exceptional scoring tool… unique for that matter in the NBA coming off the bench.
All in all, it’s impossible to know how that would work. But I kind of like the idea, and Vince isn’t really the kind of guy, at this point, that it’s going to whine about that. Compound that with Vince playing for a contract (basically, you can think this as a contract year)… maybe we have something going on here.
Vince's numbers taking 20 or more shots:
29.1 PPG on 46% shooting, 6 rebounds, 3 assists.
If he isn’t allowed to get into a groove, he doesn’t play as well. If you just want someone to step in now and then to hit a three or drive and dish, J.J. is your guy.
If you want a playoff go-to-guy, you can’t yank him after a 1-5 start. He needs the green light to play how he needs to play.
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But if you take away the 48 point game he had against New Orleans on 19/27 FG...
…his numbers drop to 27 ppg on 42.6% FG shooting, an eFG% of 46.8%, and a TS% of 52.5% in the other nine games when he attempted 20+ shots in a game.
I realize it’s not fair to take away that one great game (heck, he was hitting shots from everywhere), but in nine of the ten games where he took 20+ shots, Vince’s efficiency was not good.
The Magic looked much better as a team and Vince’s efficiency was a lot better when Vince took a reasonable number of shots and looked to distribute the ball more, which we saw a lot of since February 1st.
You’re right when you say he shouldn’t be yanked from a game if he starts out 1 for 5, as long as he is playing within the team concept, which he has proven he can do well.
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by Mike from Illinois on Aug 24, 2010 12:55 AM EDT reply actions
But if you took away the one really inefficient game against Boston, he averaged 29.4 ppg on 48% shooting, while committing a shockingly low 1.2 turnovers a game.
They went 7-3, with losses coming @Utah, vs. Cleveland, and vs. Boston.
The Magic looked much better as a team when Vince shot a higher percentage and had the ball in his hands.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll try and prove my point another way
From February 7th to the end of the regular season, Carter had 16 games (out of 32 games) where he shot at least 50% from the field. In those 16 games, he made 119 of 196 FGs (60.7%) and 40 of 72 three pointers (55.6%) for a spectacular eFG% of 70.9%, along with 4 assists per game.
He averaged 20.9 ppg in those 16 games, but on an average of just 12.3 field goal attempts per game in those games, which is remarkable efficiency, and shows he doesn’t need to shoot 20+ times a game to be effective.
The Magic’s record in those 16 games with VC shooting 50% or better… 15-1. Their overall record for the final 32 games was 26-6, with Vince attempting 20+ FGs in just two of those games.
I’ll take a 15-1 record with VC averaging 21 points on 12 shot attempts per game over a 7-3 record with Vince averaging 29 points on 23 shot attempts per game.
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by Mike from Illinois on Aug 24, 2010 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I just feel like he needs a much longer leash.
If any elite scorer has a tough start, they don’t stop shooting. Throughout Vince’s career he’s had horrible first quarters, first halves, and then turned it on in the third and fourth. A 1-9 first half would become a 7-17. In Orlando, a 1-9 start becomes a 2-11. I shouldn’t be able to tell you how much Vince will get the ball in the fourth based on his performance in the first.
(with the 7-3 record I was just rebutting the idea that him taking 20 shots hurts the team.)
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
That's a valid point
…though with Redick in reserve at SG, if VC is having a poor shooting game and J.J. comes in and lights it up, J.J. will probably receive the majority of the playing time the rest of the game.
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by Mike from Illinois on Aug 24, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
The best thing about the Magic is that they're not stuck with an "elite scorer".
They have at least four guys who can easily lead the team in shots, provided they have a favorable matchup and are making the shots. It’s true that sometimes a guy starts 1-6 and it’s just bad luck.
It’s also true that sometimes a guy starts 1-6 because the guy defending him has his number. And if you’re one of those teams whose offense is centered on one guy, that guy has to keep beating his head against the wall. The Magic don’t have to do that.
(It’s also true that, if a guy goes 1-6, then the offense rotates to give shots to other players, the player who was defending the 1-6 guy is probably going to start focusing more on help defense, or maybe switch over to another defensive assignment. Etc.)
Modularity is the basis of Orlando’s offense: aside from the center, everyone can shoot from everywhere. Why would you want to saddle the team with the kind of preconceptions that are just going to make it more predictable, and force certain players to occasionally shoot the team out of a game?
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
And it also comes down to "How can the team put him in the best position to succeed?"
What’s the answer? More Iso’s and more post ups. Is Vince a great pick and roll player? Sure, but he’s better alone on the wing. Read that post BQR did that touched on Vince’s isolation possessions. He’s outstanding. Always has been. Look back at Vince when he dropped 25-30 a night. Where was he doing his damage from? The wing. Posting up. The numbers show that he still does it at an elite level.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Um, no.
If you’re thinking “How can the team put Vince in the best position to succeed?”, you’ve got it backwards. Vince should be working for the team to succeed. And if that means passing the ball a little more so Nelson and Lewis can get involved in the offense, that’s what it means.
Interestingly enough, your other argument is also just about exactly backwards as well. You’re saying “Vince was an efficient player when he took 20 shots a game.” Except… it’s not like he had to take the 20 shots blind and only later figure out how they came out.
Generally speaking, Vince probably took 20 shots when he was an efficient player. (That Boston game aside.) Or to put it differently, he took more shots when he found himself poorly defended/getting a lot of open shots. Which is entirely natural. And it’s also entirely natural that he made more of those shots: he took a bigger role in the offense because things were going well.
But that doesn’t translate to saying that he can force that kind of success by taking 20 shots in all the games.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
By team I meant coaching staff, and it's something they should do for every player. Every player should then turn around and go, "What can I do to help my team succeed?"
Vince took 20 shots when he took 20 shots. The numbers vary game by game. Overall, he shot a higher percentage (46%) than he did in games with fewer than 20 shots.
No one’s talking about forcing success, taking a certain number of shots just to take them. But when you come out with the mentality that this guy is our biggest weapon and will give us 25-30 points, it opens up things for other people. Guys who can fill it up are defended differently. That’s why he could take 25 shots one night, but dish out 12 assists the next. That’s why Vince had such solid passing numbers in New Jersey.
Rashard Lewis needs more post ups and less spot ups as well. I don’t think we saw enough 2/4 pick and pops either.
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by ben_gleicher on Aug 24, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
That's right
Like I said, in New Jersey it was a totally different game dynamic.
Except that he CAN'T always do that.
He tried to always do that in the first few months of the year. The results were not good.
But when we’re talking about these 20-shot games. He didn’t make the shots because he took the shots. He took the shots because he was making the shots.
(Except that Celtics game, where he took the shots because he had the attitude that he was The Guy, and he should take those shots. That was a terrible attitude, and I’m glad it’s gone.)
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
They won that game. Howard couldn't score on Perkins. Vince hit big shots down the stretch.
I’m looking at his entire body of work. 13 years in the league. I’ve seen it all. Did he have a tough start to the season? Sure. But with the way he was playing from February on, he could’ve taken several more shots a game and kept that efficiency.
The real "Masters of Panic" are commenting on this blog.
by ben_gleicher on Aug 25, 2010 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Vince was 3-8 "down the stretch".
He wasn’t getting good shots, and he wasn’t converting them at a good rate either. The Magic’s defense won that game.
But that was just one game. The neglect of Lewis was all season.
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
It's not like that record number is just because of Vince's shot selection
When we all know there are tons of other factors involved. To make such a correlation, let it be positive or negative, is silly.
In my book though, I’d rather have Vince shooting fadeaway threes, if it ends up being that shot, rather than Rashard or Jameer. But that’s just me.
I go crazy when I see poor shooters just jack it up… when you have a real scorer on the team – you should go with him (but, at the same time, I hate Durant for being a brat who gets force feeded the ball to shoot shoot shoot for millions of times).
Durant's also one of the most efficient scorers in basketball right now.
It’s not like he’s chucking low-percentage shots.
(And I don’t understand the point of “I’d rather have Vince shooting fadeaway threes… than Rashard or Jameer.”
Either you’re saying “I’d rather have Vince shooting a terrible shot nobody should take, as opposed to having two guys shoot it who generally manage to avoid taking that shot in the first place”… which I… think I agree with? Um, is nobody taking a fadeaway three an option? Seriously, that’s not the kind of shot that tends to happen deliberately…
…or you’re saying you’d rather see Vince shooting threes in general, which is silly, and I doubt you mean to say that.)
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
I was trying to make the point that
I get annoyed when I see Rashard and Jameer (especially Jameer), but also Pietrus etc jack up shots that they don’t seem like confortable taking/shot clock winding down shots – when they have a great scorer next to them.
Now that’s hasn’t happened so often and Vince hasn’t been really much efficient himself so my point isn’t really on solid ground, more like personal preference, but still…
Yeah… my point is more that last-second shots shouldn’t happen in general.
Also, that during the first half of the season, Vince was taking a lot of those “desperation” shots (contested fadeaway threes five feet beyond the line, driving on multiple defenders, mid-range floaters without his feet set, etc.)… in situations where it didn’t seem necessary for him to make matters so difficult. Sometimes when the clock wasn’t winding down, even. I didn’t see that nearly as much from Jameer or Rashard.
(And even Pietrus…okay, Pietrus will take shots way too early in the shot clock, and we know that about Pietrus. But they’re not generally circus shots… they’re generally just regular threes.)
Basketball trivia time! The Orlando Magic used 12 players during the 2009-10 season. How many of them posted an eFG% lower than Carmelo Anthony?
It's kind of irellevant to Vince if it's a circus shot or not
He shoots them with as much chance of going in as a regular jumpshot (I know because I do that as well, as silly as that might be).
Sometimes you do them so often (like he has done throughout his career) that it just doesn’t matter. They might even have a greater chance of going in because you’re so used to take them like that (you take circus shots more than regular shots).
Andre Iguodala said Vince is the hardest player to guard in the NBA because you never ever know when he’s going to shoot. He can score from anywhere and he doesn’t really “tell” you when he’s going to shoot. It’s too bad that the Magic got “this version” of Vince… because the Nets Vince would just make that sentence by Iguodala true.
I’ve said it and I’m going to say it again – the only defender that can really stop Vince is himself… I really don’t remember any defender stopping him (like – to make me think “man, this guy has his number”).
But yeah some of his shot selection and decision making is so annoying sometimes.
From John Denton
I know that Carter has been a regular at the Magic’s facility this offseason and has been working toward rebounding next season. Assuredly, he knows deep down that it might be his last shot at winning a title and reshaping his image into that of a champion.
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