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What's the Ceiling on this Magic Team?

Otis Smith (as usual) seems calm and confident about the 2010/2011 NBA season with his current roster. Despite the machinations in Miami (and to a lesser, quiter extent, Chicago) you can't really blame him. The Orlando Magic have essentially overachieved over the past two seasons (the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals not withstanding).

Arguably, the second-biggest talent on the Magic is Stan Van Gundy. The production he's achieved every year since joining the team has been nothing short of incredible. Granted, on the one hand, the limitations of the 4-1 offense were exposed last season by Boston (and would've been annihilated by the Lakers, had we reached them). But this was, in large part, due to Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis failing to show up.

This was also due to Dwight Howard's one-on-one game, or lack thereof.

It will be interesting to see what SVG cooks up this season. A safe assumption is that he'll factor in a more traditional offensive scheme against certain match-ups. But, individually speaking, I wonder where we may see improvement, and what impact it could have on this team as a whole.

Here are a few guys I'll be looking out for. Please share your thoughts as well.

1. Vince Carter.

Recently, Smith talked about Carter and how he needed a little more time to adapt to SVG's offense. It seemed fairly clear last season that Carter wasn't entirely comfortable on either end of the floor. After an entire career as the best player on horrible teams, I imagine joining the Magic would require some adjusting. But how much? Where might we see some growth? Carter isn't getting younger, and appeared a lot slower and less agile last season. Realistically, this decline will only continue.

2. J.J. Redick.

I've always been a JJ Redick skeptic, but his performance in the '09 Playoffs (particularly the ECF) was undeniable. Can't speak from first hand knowledge, but I assume he's the hardest working player on the team. His growth over the past four years has been incredible, both as a scorer and defender. Can we expect bigger and better from Redick in '10? I'm very curious where his ceiling is. Based solely on his play in the '09 ECF, I'd almost be inclined to start him ahead of Carter.

3. Dwight Howard.

Obvious. On the one hand, Kendrick Perkins is a fierce defender. On the other, Dwight Howard is Superman. I know he doesn't have that natural 'soft touch', and in no way do I mean to discredit what his efforts on defense and rebounding do for this team. But the offense has got to improve. Effective low-post offense requires far more skill than talent (assuming you've got the size). 

I'm not going to question his work ethic or dedication, but I do hope the ECF gave him a wake up call. Even if Howard is never a great offensive player like Hakeem, he has a lot of room to improve on his footwork, timing and shooting touch. It can't feel too good to realize the "secret weapon" used to defeat you was essentially calling your bluff on offense.

4. Brandon Bass/Marcin Gortat.

I'm lumping these two together for the sake of ease. Needless to say, neither had much of a chance to showcase their abilities last season. The last time Gortat was called to deliver (that I can remember) was in game six of the first round of the '09 Playoffs, and he rose to the occasion (11 pts on 5/8 shooting, 15 rebounds).

Brandon Bass has an outstanding mid-range shot, and the size to command some respect inside on both ends of the floor. He never looked comfortable playing in SVG's system, but perhaps this will change. I definitely think he's capable of surprising people and proving his worth, if he's used effectively.

5. Rashard Lewis

What is the ceiling on this guy? Based on age alone, his best years are likely behind him. He's a great fit in the 4-1 offense, but when the 3s aren't falling, I'd like to see Lewis become more aggressive. He absolutely turned it on in the '09 Playoffs, which makes me wonder if his flu symptoms last season were legitimate.

But the fact remains, he's got the size and skills to score pretty much any way he wants. Hard to think we couldn't use him even more effectively, particularly when we're running a more traditional offensive scheme.

6. Chris Duhon

I'm a Chris Duhon skeptic. But I do trust Otis Smith, and playing in Orlando gives Duhon a tremendous amount of weapons. He's an intelligent game manager, and it's hard to think he'll chuck bricks like he did in NY when he's surrounded by perimeter weapons, with the best center in the NBA waiting underneath. He could end up being a great addition, if he is willing to do as he is told.

7. Quentin Richardson

No idea here. I'm concerned about Otis Smith's enthusiasm here, the same way I was last summer when he brought in Vince Carter. He's an old man. He may still have a nice shooting touch, but if he get separation from his defender, what good is it? Same thing on defense. Who, exactly, can Q-Rich stay in front of these days? Vince Carter, maybe?

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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I expect us to be about the same team as last year.55-60 wins.

But we are not going to be able to beat the lakers,boston and the heat will be a very hard team to beat.

by magicman775 on Jul 26, 2010 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice for you to have that positive, winning spirit tho.

If only every single fan could be like you!

I'm a girl too.

Haters gonna hate.

by GoMagicGo on Jul 26, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

pretty sure everyone expects the magic to win 50-60.

The only debate thats really going is what is that piece that for sure puts us through Miami, LA, or Boston? Or is it possible with our current roster?

If a couple players start “clicking” like they should its possible. The problem I have with the current Line-up is that this team should be able to win it without Howard scoring but instead have to rely on his ability to.

Ben Wallace wasn’t anywhere near where Dwight was and the pistons won a ring with lower budget talent. If the offense has to focus on Howard thats where the problems come. You’re hoping the best defender in the league will also carry you offensively but consdering what he puts in the finger should be pointed at the other players to score.

If Lewis or VC plays anywhere near their contract value its a championship team. Its a long shot but it seems thats what I have left to hope for.

by David Polega on Jul 26, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

It isn't just on Lewis and VC though. Everyone has to contribute.

Boston won because every game they had a random player go crazy insane and shoot 60%+. Not just Paul Pierce, they had steady production from him the entire series, but one of their role players stepped up in every single game which enabled them to win. None of our role players outside of JJ had anything close to good numbers in the ECF. Lewis started terrible, and even his “good” games were still incredibly mediocre. Carter was the same. Nelson was up and down. Some of it can be attributed to good Boston Defense, but mostly, our guys played like crap. It was the perfect storm of 5-6 guys having an incredibly bad series. If even two of those guys plays at 3/4 of their potential, I believe we would have won the series.

by MagicMark on Jul 26, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not saying they don’t, but I believe the best hope is for Lewis and VC too stay hot through the playoffs, which is possible. Likely? meh.

by David Polega on Jul 26, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeh but if their not hot it’ll be on like 5/17 shooting

by David Polega on Jul 26, 2010 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

no way

The Celtics almost swept you guys. There is no way you had a chance by Rashard and VC playing “consistant.” Have you thought that perhaps it was the defense that was tough? If Boston wouldn’t have let up, it is quite possible that they would have swept you.

This is pure homerism thinking.

by plyka on Jul 28, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone remembers that the Magic lost, some will remember the near-sweep, but very few will remember how close some of the games were.

Yeah, Game 3 was an abomination, but a JJ Redick brain fart and VC choking was the difference between a close 2-1 and an impossible 3-0.

But Rashard being sick didn’t help at all. Fact was we needed all our producers in top shape, which they weren’t.

by RL Magic on Jul 29, 2010 6:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why?

Last year was a worst-case scenario. Lewis never fit into the offense. Carter didn’t fit into the offense until the All-Star break, and Jason Williams wasn’t an NBA player after the break. Jameer was off/injured for most of the season. We were stuck with an offensive scheme which didn’t use Ryan Anderson to his full capacity, and stuck playing Brandon Bass far more than his performance warranted.

If we win less than 60, and major injuries aren’t involved, I’ll be completely shocked.

I call him LeBron Jim for short.

by 3.3seconds on Jul 27, 2010 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not at all.

He turned us into contenders almost overnight (though anything would’ve been a huge bump from the unfortunate Brian Hill Redux era). But really, he’s absolutely among the top five coaches in the NBA. Maybe top three.

by Jtyler998 on Jul 27, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would say Eastern Conference Finals.

Don’t think the Magic have enough defense for the Heat nor the Lakers. I think Magic could beat Boston. Our only chance at the finals would be Boston beating the Heat. Boston has the defense and several guys inside defensively that they can run at the Heat without getting into foul trouble. Dwight would get into foul trouble against the Heat and the only the way the Magic could sniff beating the Heat is if Dwight had huge games on both ends. Vince guarding Wade or James? Ouch they would go off for at least 35 a night. ECF I must say sadly.

by blumer23 on Jul 27, 2010 1:19 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree, Wade/James will go nuts against us...

But we’re a relatively strong defensive team when not facing two of the best players in the known universe. And also a pretty high scoring team. If the shooting touch is there, don’t the Magic have enough weapons to simply out score the Heat?

It’ll be really interesting to see how Bosh fits into the lineup there, and whether or not Howard is able to step up his game on defense against him. It has been awhile since I’ve checked a Magic/Raptors box score, but I seem to remember Bosh scoring pretty much at will against Howard.

by Jtyler998 on Jul 27, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lewis guarded Bosh.

"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew

I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll

"I thank my teammates for letting their men blow by them." - Alonzo Mourning after winning the DPOY award

by NC Magic Fan on Jul 28, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the perimeter.

Inside, Howard came over and defended frequently and still couldn’t really do much with him.

by Jtyler998 on Jul 28, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I must say really good breakdown Jtyler,

agree with almost everything you said about each player. Good work.

by blumer23 on Jul 27, 2010 1:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Good work, Jtyler

Magic fan since 99-00
Troy Hudson & Keith Bogans Biggest Fan

by Reediculous on Jul 27, 2010 8:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Q.Rich is only 30

He’s the same age as Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus.

I'm Mr.Magic

by d-baller23 on Jul 27, 2010 11:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I lied about MP

he’s 28, but Q is not old

I'm Mr.Magic

by d-baller23 on Jul 27, 2010 11:27 PM EDT reply actions  

A wonderful write up!

Very unbiased which surprised me. I kept looking for the homerism that usually infects these type of posts, but i failed every time. Good stuff. I still disagree with some of it though:

1) VC is who he is and he is not going to change. Believe me, an extra year will not change his effect. You saw the best out of VC last year, which is not much or let’s call it an average NBA player. One thing i disagree with you on is that his athletic ability will not decline more next year. I think athletes go through 2 phases of decline. The first phase is about to age 30, and then they balance off until their mid 30’s when they start the second phase. I think that VC stays at this athletic ability for a few years.

2) I think you are overestimating JJ. He seems to be a very good role player. A championship level bench player. On a true championship team, he would be the 7th man or so. Even though i hate on VC, JJ should not start in his place, because quite frankly JJ is not as good as VC.

3) Dwight Howard is a beast and the heart, soul, leader, etc of this team. I don’t think you can expect much more out of him because he has given so much already. Expecting Dwight to turn into a skill man on offense is simply unrealistic. It’s too late. You think Hakeem didn’t have that touch when he was 18? At Dwight’s age, he basically is what he is. Perhaps he can improve slightly in certain areas, but his skill level is just not going to change much. The area of offense which can change is shooting. But the others things like footwork, positioning, feel, touch, etc., not really going to change. But that’s not a huge problem. Dwight, as he is now, is a perfect center piece for a championship team. The only area that Dwight needs to improve on, and really should improve on, is his leadership. Be more like Kobe and less like…well, some nice guy that tweets and plays in commercials, etc. Don’t be like Lebron and worry about your brand, be like Kobe and worry about your fingers needing warmth through rings. That’s better.

4) Bass/Gortat. This is the area where you guys can make the most advancement. I think the problem you have is that Dwight is by himself. No one can stop the premier front lines by himself. Bynum/Pau/Odom vs Dwight? Perkins/KG/Oniel/big baby vs Dwight? Not really fair. You need a helper. However, the problem is that Bass/Gortat both don’t fit these roles. For a helper you need an offensive minded skilled big man. Pau Gasol would be perfection for Dwight and the Magic. Bosh would be too. Gortat is a weaker less skilled version of Dwight. He doesn’t have the skill. Bass may have some of the skill but he isn’t long/tall.big enough, and i’m not even sure he has enough of the skill. Bass/Gortat seem to be just misfits on this team. They don’t belong with the Magic as currently formed.

5) Q Rich vs Barnes. Rich is more talented and more capable on offense. But Barnes seemed like the intangibles guy who was extremely important to the magic last year. I think Barnes and his toughness, both physical and mental, will be sorely missed.

All in all, i don’t think the Magic are a championship team this year. I think they are the same or a bit worse. The Magic need to make a move before the deadline in order to truly contend. YOu guys are better than the Heat, that’s for sure. I just don’t think you can take out the Celtics or Lakers and maybe even the Bulls.

by plyka on Jul 28, 2010 5:45 PM EDT reply actions  

The ceiling, if things break the right way, is title.

I think the chances are lower this year of that happening though than last year. I really felt like last year’s team had the make-up to win it all, but we got Boston at the wrong time and the Magic didn’t wake up until Game 4.

I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.

by slickw143 on Jul 29, 2010 2:20 PM EDT reply actions  

That's essentially what I was asking.

Can this team, with certain improvements in chemistry and developments among the young players, contend against the Lakers and Heat.

Only one way to know for sure, I guess.

by Jtyler998 on Jul 29, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Only one way indeed.

Post rants on fan sites with your opinions and totally ignore facts. Everyone knows the Mavs are due to win this year, how could you argue with that? ;-)

"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew

I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll

"I thank my teammates for letting their men blow by them." - Alonzo Mourning after winning the DPOY award

by NC Magic Fan on Jul 29, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Championship

Heat will mess the bed in semis we will beat eastern confo. and lol lakers had to go to 7 games against old celts we for surely beat lakers in 6.

by waffles on Aug 1, 2010 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

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