New "Chemistry" Data Suggest Mickael Pietrus Should Continue Role as Orlando Magic Reserve
by Evan Dunlap on Jul 21, 2010 12:39 PM EDT
in Analysis
Email
Print
Finding am empirical way to evaluate NBA team chemistry may seem an impossible task, but Numeranda may be onto something with its latest post (via Basketball Reference, whose own post on the subject brought this one to my attention) using Adjusted Plus-Minus statistics to evaluate the "chemistry" of a given five-man unit. Here' the method:
With these caveats out of the way, here was my thinking: we have at our fingertips (thanks to Aaron [Barzilai, who runs basketballvalue.com]) two measures of APM, an individual measure and a five-man unit measure; is there some way to connect the one with the other? My first instinct would be to simply add the individual APMs together and see how they compare to the five-man unit APM. If player impact works in a simple, additive fashion, the two measures should be roughly equal. Is that the case?
Essentially, this method evaluates the extent to which a given unit over- or under-achieved relative to the adjusted plus-minus figures of the players in it. What does this definition say about the Orlando Magic?
For starters, that the Magic's starting group last year of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard slightly over-achieved, with a 1.06 chemistry rating. More interesting, to me, is the great extent to which replacing Barnes with Mickael Pietrus causes that lineup to under-achieve, with a staggering -9.79 rating. That five-man group should play nearly 10 points higher than it did, which suggests at least one of the following statements is true:
Barnes is a great fit with the Magic's four All-Stars
Pietrus is a poor fit with the Magic's four All-Stars
With Barnes moving on--just not to the Toronto Raptors, as initially suspected--the Magic will call on either Pietrus or new addition Quentin Richardson to start at small forward. Numeranda's data indicate that Richardson is the better choice. Add them to Eddy's list of reasons why that job should be Richardson's to lose.
51 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i would prefer richardson over pietrus too
MP is good but he is a lil 3pt happy. If he’s not getting his shots he will not play as hard on defense
by JGutta on Jul 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Isn't MP good enough to take the ball to the hole more.
Guy is crazy athletic and to me could be a very dangerous player. But someone who only shoots 3’s does not put that fear into me as much as the man who takes the ball to the hole. I think MP could make a good starter but his rough regular season last year leads me to believe Richardson must start.
He can take it to the hole
As long as he doesnt dribble it off his foot or into the 3rd row.
hahaha he does turn the ball over alot lol
by JGutta on Jul 21, 2010 2:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
LOL
yea i’m always scared whenever pietrus drives to the hole..i feel like he either will lose the ball or get injured…he needs to improve his ball handling skills..but i love MP, funniest guy on the team i think. I was laughin so hard when he rubbed that bald guys head during the Boston game
Pietrus seems to prefer coming off the bench too.
He seems more comfortable and I’ve never heard him complain about not starting or anything.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
I love Pietrus
That is all
"The Cavaliers were a contender to win the finals therefore they will always be a threat to contend for a title."~Wally Balls 407
Cleans up the nonsense about minutes, gets rid of one your 4’s and you get shaq backing up dwight instead of Gortat AND you get a better 3 than we’ve ever had.
by David Polega on Jul 21, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
well I’d think replacing the player talked about in the article has bearing?
Luol Deng woulda been ours had lebron gone to the bulls, and since its clear Pietrus doens’t work with our starting 5 anyway why not suggest putting him in a trade for deng?
by David Polega on Jul 21, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Neither of them fit our system
Deng specializes in the mid-range jumper. Orlando specializes in forcing opponents to take mid-range jumpers. Shaq’s an awful defender. Defense is everything to our system.
If Deng’s game was similar to Hedo’s then he’d be an upgrade to Q/MP but for how his skill-set would compliment the starting roster Richardson is a better fit and for $9, $10 & $11 mill less per season over the next 3 seasons.
Gortat at $6.7 is cheap. The importance of Gortant shouldn’t be understated. Gortat anchors our defense the same way Dwight does in that we’re able to maintain excellent Team Defense with 1 Center & 4 average – slightly above average defenders. That’s the reason 18 other NBA teams want him. RA’s young, inexpensive, versatile and fits the system so it’d be a mistake for us to move him. We’re a well balanced team both offensively & defensively so moving Gortat & RA would cement Bass as our only backup PF (instead of the 3 we have now) which alone hurts our defense and then we add Shaq, equally as bad of a defender as Bass.
I understand you must like Deng & Shaq for personal reasons but c’mon man they don’t fit our squad, have horrible contracts (Do we really need 2 more of those) and are near the end of their careers. You don’t give away young talent at vital positions and your best wing defender for an aging player and a Dinosaur. No matter how intriguing it is to have a player who was thought to be an extinct species, it’s in our best interest to let this one run its course elsewhere. And please no more mention if this particular trade, it’s been shot down repeatedly by multiple sources with logic & reasoning. If we can get Shaq for $1.6 mill I’m all for it because I think he could help in a Boston or LA series but he makes us worse against every other team, especially MIA, CHI & ATL.
"It can be done, you can just crush somebody"
by Warlando on Jul 21, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
There is also that small problem that Chicago cannot trade Shaq since they don't have him
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
Yeah, I was wondering about that....
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
There are infinite number of ways to make a deal, obviously figuring out how best to make it is a matter of what the other team wants, not just what the magic want.
by David Polega on Jul 22, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Which doesn't change the fact that the Bulls couldn't sign Shaq and then trade him to Orlando.
Now, the Cavs could sign-and-trade Shaq to the Magic, and the Bulls could trade Deng here. Separately.
Common Sense Suggests Mickael Pietrus Should Continue Role as Orlando Magic Reserve
by Ol' Uncle Munnerlyn on Jul 21, 2010 3:45 PM EDT reply actions
THIS!
LMAO
I'm a dude!
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Where game threads turn into online chat rooms!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPlLyVuMf7U
Pietrus' game fits better coming off the bench.
I felt that way going into last season, and feel that way now. He can play with a little more reckless abandon with the 2nd unit as opposed to the structure of the starters.
I love LeBron. No really, I love Jameer.
If Im Reading This Right
It looks like the chemistry thing goes down just a little with MP and J-Will being on the court but goes WAAAYYYYYY down with Jameer and MP playing together. MP usually doesnt give up the ball once he gets it. I think this thing would just indicate he needs to be on the court with a playmaker (like J-Will or now Duhon) and not a shot taker like Jameer. That can be said for everyone on the roster outside of Jameer himself.
My Lineup
Howard
Gortat/Bass/Anderson
Lewis/Pietrus
Carter/Reddick
Nelson/Can’t think of his name right now.. LOL
Your suggested starting 5 looks like we’d be sluggish at the 3 & 4 spots. I think it would hurt our offense during the regular season and during the playoffs I see LA, BOS & MIA beating us. I like your lineup against the Bulls. It’s something SVG should certainly consider due to the Lewis/Boozer matchup at PF and the problems Boozer has scoring on lengthy Centers disguised as PF’s.
We will have our best chance in my opinion with what will probabaly be our rotations.
Howard/Gortat
Lewis/RA/Bass/Gortat
Richardson/MP/Lewis
Carter/Redick
Nelson/Duhon
I don’t like MP at the 2 and I only want VC getting minutes at the 3 if he’s in attack mode both offensively & defensively.
"It can be done, you can just crush somebody"
And On-Topic..
If we go “Gack!” 4-1, I wouldn’t mind Pietrus starting at SF over Richardson. I like his athleticism.
We don't have much for defense on the bench or in the starting lineup.
The SG and SF spot for us doesn’t have much for defense. I think Pietrus is a little overrated playing defense, he didn’t do much in the playoffs last year on defense. I hope Richardson can be that guy. If so I say he definitely should start.
Pietrus is too much of a ball-stopper to play in the starting lineup.
Alongside the Magic’s four starters, he’s the fifth option. But he’s not going to pass the ball.
Whereas in the second unit, he’s somewhere between the first and third choice (Redick, Anderson), depending on match-ups. So it’s not as much of a problem that when he gets the ball, he’s going to shoot it. It’s entirely possible we want him to shoot it anyway.
Plus Duhon is more pass-first than Jameer — not a better distributor, but definitely more focused on distributing. So he’s going to do a lot to cushion Pietrus’, er, shortcomings as a creator of plays.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Yea I agree
Pietrus is better comin off the bench so he can feel more comfortable shooting the ball more. He looks more hesitant to shoot when he’s in the starting lineup.
I think when its the final minutes of a game though, and we need someone to guard the other team’s superstar, pietrus should be the choice…I don’t know if Richardson is as good as a defender as Barnes was
Well, Stan can make that call on a game-by-game basis...
…offense is generally just as much a concern as defense in the late game, and I can’t say too much in favor of Pietrus’ clock management. He frequently takes the early shot in a situation where we just don’t need it.
And of course, everyone will have a better idea of Q’s defensive strengths and weaknesses by the time the season starts.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
The problem with Adjusted Plus-Minus instrument
Is that it did not test well with professional statisticians. I personally tested it with mixed results, primarily towards the negative side. Now the quoted website is using APM to arrive at results as it did, and I would be hesitant to confirm its validity. I honestly think that Van Gundy, as much as he relies on quantitative data, would be inclined to listen to his own instincts, hence mixing some qualitative/subjective assessments with meaningful quantitative data in his disposal. Calling the comparative case between MP and QR brings many variables – lots of them qualitative – to the forefront which require intimate knowledge and qualification by guess who? The coach.
It means you cannot totally rely on quantitative statistical analysis when coaching an NBA team. You also have to take the actual players into consideration as well as whats on the computer screen.
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll
"I thank my teammates for letting their men blow by them." - Alonzo Mourning after winning the DPOY award
by NC Magic Fan on Jul 22, 2010 6:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree the SVG does not rely on statistical analysis alone.
I am a big fan of stats in basketball, but things like APM serve a indicators, helping the staff know things to observe or validating observations. On the other hand, the wide disparity in the APM with Barnes and Pietrus is pretty staggering.
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll
"I thank my teammates for letting their men blow by them." - Alonzo Mourning after winning the DPOY award
by NC Magic Fan on Jul 22, 2010 6:25 AM EDT up reply actions
????
(scratching my head and shruging my sholders)
I guess this went out the door when J.J. Redick was re-signed...
Why not slide Lewis back to 3 and play Anderson or Bass? I’d like to see that rotation more.
Poor Man's GM @ poormansgm.blogspot.com
Fundamentally Sound: Much Ado About the Spurs @ fundamentally-sound.blogspot.com
Not to say the Rashard Lewis as a PF experiment is a failure, but I think he can be more effective there.
Poor Man's GM @ poormansgm.blogspot.com
Fundamentally Sound: Much Ado About the Spurs @ fundamentally-sound.blogspot.com
He can defend the 4?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yes.
I just didn’t want to feel left out.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 22, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Never have I been more sure of anything in my life.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Contact Us
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
