Denton: Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith Dishes on Free Agency
by Evan Dunlap on Jul 1, 2010 4:49 PM EDT
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PrintJohn Denton of OrlandoMagic.com chatted with GM Otis Smith to get his take on the free-agency period. Among the highlights:
Smith doesn't foresee pursuing Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, or Amar'e Stoudemire, the three top free agent power forwards.
``I got power forwards sitting on my bench right now who can help us and until they play a lot then how do we know that won’t work?’’ Smith asked. ``I think a lot of our guys will make a big jump with another season of playing under (head coach) Stan (Van Gundy).’’
The Magic have identified Steve Blake and C.J. Watson as desirable backup point guards for Jameer Nelson. To be clear, Smith did not comment on either player directly, at least not in this story. Read my take on Blake here and Watson here.
Smith is taking a wait-and-see approach, as he tends to do, during free agency:
``The ones who need to jump out of the gates early are the ones who have lots of cap room and the top free agents. We’ll let the top guys go do their thing, let the market re-set and then we’ll be ready.’’
It's possible that Smith's talking point about the power forwards is a smokescreen; Alan Hahn and Adrian Wojnarowksi (scroll to "Stoudemire meets with Heat") have linked the Magic and Stoudemire via a sign-and-trade, while numerous outlets have reported the Magic's interest in Boozer.
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Amare is a bigger version of Vince
Doesn’t Amare not have the best reputation for getting along with his teammates or being a disruptive force in the locker room? Both he and Boozer only seem to play well during contract years…
What about pursuing David Lee for the PF position? He’s younger and he can score. And, why don’t the Magic rid themselves of Carter and pursue a pure scorer like Granger or Kevin Martin. Someone who could just come in and start shooting away.
Because you can't wish away contracts in the NBA
And Indiana aren’t going to give away their best player, and Kevin Martin’s not really any better than Vince, nor Houston willing to give him away.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 1, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
^ this….
The Problem With Our Generation, Is That Our Future Isn't What It Used To Be
by JoeyBarz on Jul 1, 2010 6:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
^ this….
The Problem With Our Generation, Is That Our Future Isn't What It Used To Be
by JoeyBarz on Jul 1, 2010 6:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Can't agree
Vince is a better shooter (especially from 3 point range), better passer, better defender, less turnover prove, and a better rebounder.
Martin’s a better driver and better at getting to the line.
I’ll take Vince.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 2, 2010 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Martin's a substantially better three-point shooter.
And I’d call defense a wash, most likely. Hard to tell.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Really?
KM: 38% career, 33.3% 2010
VC: 37.5% career, 36.7% 2010
How is that “substantially better”? Even if you say Martin had a down year, he’s still only a little better than Carter over his career and if it wasn’t just a down year…
Ben – Martin’s TS% is massively inflated by the amount he gets to the line (and his outstanding conversion rate). His effective field goal % last year was .468; Carter threw in .486. Martin’s eFG% peaked in his second season and he steadily dropped since then. Might he reverse that trend? Sure, maybe. He bounced up a little to .479 with the Rockets, but that’s still his lowest mark after his rookie season.
I like the kid, but he’s overrated.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 3, 2010 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Except....
Kevin Martin’s career eFG% of 50.7 is quite better than Vince’s 48.6. However, I do tend to agree with you to an extent about Martin because although he puts up gaudy stats, he doesn’t really strike me as a difference maker. He’s only been to the playoffs once (and didn’t perform well even though it was only his 2nd season in the league), didn’t really seem to make his teammates better in Sacramento even though it’s Sacramento, and the Rockets were still around .500 even after they got Martin. I think another reason why Martin was traded was because he didn’t mesh with Tyreke Evans.
I'm a dude!
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Where game threads turn into online chat rooms!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPlLyVuMf7U
In fact...
the Kings actually got better with his loss (addition by subtraction) because in the 22 games he played with them, they went 4-18 and the Kings finished the season 25-57 meaning they went 21-39 without him so their winning % was nearly double without him (35) than it was with him (18.1).
I'm a dude!
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Where game threads turn into online chat rooms!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPlLyVuMf7U
I'm not
My point is that Carter’s a better shooter, or at least was last season. Martin’s a better scorer at this point of his career, no doubt. But Carter’s better at pretty much everything else, so I’d still have them as pretty similar players.
You said Martin’s a “lot better” than Carter which is pretty unsupportable in my opinion. A lot better scorer because he gets to the line, but Carter’s got him everywhere else so overall they’re about the same in impact, I think.
If Martin has a bounceback year, then obviously the equation shifts again.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 3, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think "bounceback year" is an accurate way of putting it.
I’d say something more like “Martin was injured all season, and on tom of that, they traded him to a new team midway through the year. His 2009-10 stats mean nothing.”
Also remember volume — Martin’s a much higher-volume three-point shooter than Carter.
And again, they’re about equal on defense, Martin is a much better shooter (obvious fluke years excepted), a better volume scorer, and yes, getting to the line is a skill which can be expected to carry over from year to year.
Not saying he’s a better fit than Carter for Orlando — ideally, Carter should be carrying some weight as a passer, and Martin doesn’t do that. Then again, I’m also not saying Martin’s available anyway.
Why are we talking about this again?
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Martin
Has been injury prone his whole career, so there’s nothing new there. I’m not going to give a guy who can’t stay on the court a free pass because he couldn’t stay on the court.
Not sure what volume has to do with it, frankly. And I can’t agree about the defense – obviously defensive metrics are harder to trust, but Carter’s defensive rating last season was 105 and OK, Dwight helps with that, but his career average is 106. Martin put in 111 last season, which is his career average. I’d like to see what Synergy have to say about it, but I’m not paying $30 to do so.
We’re talking about this because people horrifically overrate guys who score a lot but don’t do much else very well, whilst underrating someone like Carter for whatever reason. Carter was a borderline top ten SG in this league last season, and Martin’s right there with him. And if you think Martin is “a lot better” than Carter, well, I’m afraid the evidence just doesn’t back that up.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 3, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Volume
Making efficient shots at a high volume is more impressive and more useful than making them at a low volume. I don’t really consider that a debatable point.
And while Martin has certainly not ever been durable, last season was the first time his injuries appreciably affected his shooting. I think that can be almost entirely thrown out as a concern going forward.
As I said, I’m happy with Carter, probably happier than I would be with Martin on this team. And Carter is the guy we’ve got, so there it is. Probably the end of this discussion.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Suffice it to say
I disagree.
Martin has to prove he can get on the court and stay on it, whilst returning his shooting effectiveness to close to his averages, and that still won’t overcome his lesser abilities in everything but shooting.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 3, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh.
I think Vince has to get his shooting efficiency above the league average before we start talking about his scoring being a good thing.
(I also think he can do it if he tries. So get to work, Vince, and good luck!)
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
There aren't enough shots to go around already.
You saw what adding Vince did to Rashard’s game — he didn’t have the ball nearly as much, and he wasn’t nearly as effective without it.
Not saying a high-volume scorer wouldn’t fit some teams’ gameplans, but it doesn’t fit the Magic’s. They need more finess, more well-rounded games, more passing — not more scoring volume.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
We need more passing from the point
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Jul 1, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I ain't sure, it was the ball/player mouvement as a team that sucked in the bad games of the ECF.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Certainly.
The backup point in particular. But getting worse as a passing team from the other positions won’t help anything.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
I trulty hope this all just a smoke screen...
Because, we need CP3 and a top tier PF to get to where we want to go…
PLUS… Status quo is not going to keep your franchise player happy, or sell many seats for that brand new arena….
When "status quo"
Is challenging for conference finals and NBA titles, it’s good enough for both those things.
Dwight knows the reality of the NBA, he’s not going to be annoyed if Otis can’t pull off a miracle.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 1, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t think the Magic need CP3 and a top tier PF, don’t think it would be feasible either.
by Hassanali181 on Jul 1, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Status quo is that we're legit contenders
We’re not favorites, but we are legit contenders and that’s pretty damn good.
I want someone to put us over the top too – move us to favorites – but status quo here isn’t really much to complain about.
The Magic definitely dont need a top tier PF if we had Chris Paul
We’d need a PF that can effectively defend the the “Odom” PF type’s as well as hit the mid range. Offense isnt necessary for our PF’s since Paul could pretty much spoon feed our post players. Bass was brought in for this but just doesnt have the length or defensive ability to succeed in this role.
The main reason I want this guy is so Howard doesnt have to set the picks and can just hang around the basket at all times for offensive rebounding oppurtunites
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Jul 1, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
We'd be great with Paul
He’s a big upgrade over an already all star PG. I tend to think we’d get more upgrade out of one of the top tier PFs instead of Paul though (since Nelson is already pretty good). I’ll be thrilled if we get option though, to be honest.
we deffinatley need either a top tier power foward or a top tier pg,
getting both is unimaginable but getting just one is a MUST
It's this sort of logic that makes people with iPhone 3Gs
run out and buy an iPhone 4 during a recession. We have a great team; we don’t need to trade key pieces of our team simply to play with FaceTime or part time multitask.
by downbeatitude on Jul 1, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
But I have a Blackerry Storm. Should I go get the Storm 2?
Life's too short. Be a fan. Orlando Magic, Arizona Cardinals,Tampa Bay Rays and of course "the U"! What a winning combo.
Why?
The Magic were as good as any team in the league this year. They didn’t win, but they very easily could have. It’s just a matter of rolling the dice, and the dice came up against the Magic, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t contenders.
Moreover, they’re likely to improve next year, with several pieces of their team settling in for a second season. Vince is more aware of his role on the team, making a repeat of his first-half struggles unlikely. Everyone has a better idea of what exactly the team has at PF — they can actually design plays with Anderson in mind, for example, given that they now know he can play. If Barnes comes back, Stan knows what he’s capable of, and will be able to exploit his strengths and make him fit in better with the offense. That’s true in general. Stan has seen this team for a whole season, and he has a much better idea of what they can do than he did when he drew up the plans in fall ’09.
Meanwhile, Dwight continues to improve; his studies with Hakeem should make him more fluid on offense. Jameer slumped for large portions of the regular season; that won’t happen again.
There’s almost no point at which the Magic get worse next year, and several at which they probably get better. The one exception: they need to shore up their backcourt, either by bringing Redick/Barnes back, or replacing them. And if they can land the likes of Blake in free agency, that’s another upgrade… at a position that caused the team major trouble late this year.
Meanwhile, can any other contending team say any of that? Boston is disintegrating, and the Cavs may follow. Kobe is unquestionably aging… it may not happen next year, but he’s slowly getting less and less reliable. All these teams are getting worse. Barring some kind of free agency-based supergroup, the Magic are at worst in the same position they’ve been the last 2 years, and at best slightly ahead.
It stands to reason that, if the Magic get an offer they can’t refuse, they won’t refuse it. But there’s something to be said for having a settled gameplan and a roster that’s been together for some time. Eventually, you have to stop re-shuffling the cards and play the hand you’ve been dealt.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
I sure hope this is smokescreen because if not it is ridiculous
``I got power forwards sitting on my bench right now who can help us and until they play a lot then how do we know that won’t work?’’
This is an absolutely ridiculous comment. I mean I love our guys, but Stoudemire, Bosh, and Boozer are top tier.
Yes, but what would we have to give up to get them?
It’s all well and good to say “those guys are better than the guys we have”, but it’s not likely anyone’s going to be offering Bosh for Brandon Bass straight up, or even Boozer for Ryan Anderson. If there’s even a deal that gets the Magic those guys, it’s likely to leave holes elsewhere in the rotation.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Well, obviously
and I’m not opposed to sticking with what we’ve got if no good moves present themselves. The comment is still pretty ridiculous.
If Bass will stay, I sure hope we wont have the same debates about him next season. That was boring.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Well, it depends.
I can’t imagine Stan playing Bass over Anderson next season — Anderson earned that backup PF spot decisively last year. If Bass keeps playing at the expense of Anderson, I imagine the same arguments will come up yet again.
But I agree: I sure hope that that won’t happen.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Anderson fits the 4-1 while Bass fits in better in a regular pick and roll offense
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Jul 1, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope.
Anderson fits in better in both. He’s a more efficient scorer, a better passer, a much better rebounder, and (unless Bass gets his act together) probably less of a liability on defense. There’s not a single thing Bass does better than he does right now. And Anderson has more room to grow.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Bass hits the mid-range better
So, y’know. Yay.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 2, 2010 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions
"contentding for conference titles..."
I guess it depends on what you consider a successful season. “Contending” for conference titles is not where I want this run to end.
I want us to get to the top, where the Lakers are. The “status quo” WILL NOT get us there. We wont get past Boston, if they’re healthy, and we would definitely not challenge LA with our current roster.
More importantly, the power is likely to shift decidely in the near future, so “satus quo” will not be the same. Look, I appreciate what we’ve done, but this is not a championship roster in my opinion.
Boston exposed a very significant weakness to our team. If you can defend D12 one on one, at least most of the time, it shuts down the opportunities for our shooters.
The only way to counter that is to get penetration by at least one of our perimeter players. That’s why we brought in Vince. However, he’s clearly not the player he used to be. He rarely finishes at the rim anymore.
CP3 would give us that in spades. If it’s at all possible, you bring him in.
It would make the Boston strategy impossible to employ, because CP3 would have career numbers in poinst and assists during the sweep.
A top tier 4 would allow us to shift Shard back to his natural position and get prettyt much any shot he wants at will.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I hope we make every effort to make it happen, because we are not going to win a title with the 4-1, unless D12 becomes as dominate on the offensive end of the floor, as he undeniably is on the defensive end.
Okay, here's the thing.
“Contending” is all you can guarantee. You can’t have a team that wins every year, because no matter how good your team is, there are going to be a few other teams that are just as good. And then you need to play those teams head-to-head.
And PF is Lewis’ natural position at this point. He’s a solid defender at the 4, and he’s no longer fast enough to defend most SFs. (And if he does decide to incorporate more drives/inside scoring into his game, he’s definitely going to need to stay at the 4.)
The only legitimate complaint about Rashard at the 4 would be his rebounding. But the Magic led the league in defensive rebounding last season, so I find it difficult to argue that that’s even anything to worry about at all, let alone a problem that would require the team to move Rashard out of the position where he’s best suited on offense and defense.
I call him LeBron Jim for short.
Look
Everyone wants Chris Paul. Jameer Nelson aside, I guess.
But you have to understand how incredibly unlikely we are to get him. Otis is going to pull out the stops, but this is the NBA, not NBA 2K10.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 2, 2010 6:21 AM EDT up reply actions
nobody is saying we were bad last year
but why would that distract our attention from getting better, the better we can get the better chance we have of bringing that championship to O-Town
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