Move Rashard Lewis to Small Forward?
by Evan Dunlap on Jun 7, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
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PrintA popular fix for what ails the Orlando Magic suggested in these comment pages is for Orlando to go "traditional" and shift power forward Rashard Lewis to small forward, the position where he spent the first 9 years of his career prior to signing with the Magic. Orlando's enjoyed great regular-season success with Lewis playing the stretch four, compiling a 170-76 record. Yet the last three teams to eliminate Orlando from the postseason have boasted physical front lines that can afford to play center Dwight Howard inside one-on-one, ceding far fewer open looks to Orlando's perimeter players. Which includes Lewis. Indeed, the Detroit Pistons in 2008, L.A. Lakers in 2009, and the Boston Celtics in 2010 all had the necessary personnel to throw Orlando's offense out of whack, which has prompted the calls for coach Stan Van Gundy to abandon his four-around-one scheme, which aims to open the middle for Howard to go to work.
So, move Lewis to the three, bring in a conventional power forward, get physical, tough... et cetera. If only it were that easy. Though Lewis can perform tasks typically assigned to a small forward on the offensive end--throwing an entry pass, posting up smaller players, and even creating for himself off the bounce--he's ill equipped to play the position defensively. Van Gundy's said numerous times that Lewis has succeeded on D in Orlando because, at power forward, he doesn't have to chase players through screens around the perimeter, or move laterally all that often. The numbers bear that out.
First, some context: in 2005/06, Lewis logged 2876 minutes on a Seattle SuperSonics squad which ranked dead-last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 114.4 points per 100 possessions. That's not just awful, but exceptionally awful, as only three teams in history have ever been worse. It's a team game, and Lewis wasn't surrounded with elite defenders, so by no means am I saying that team's horrid D is his fault. But he certainly played a role in it.
Fast forward to now, and he's on one of the league's best defensive teams. Having the league's top center waiting at the rim to erase any mistakes certainly helps, sure, but so does staying stationary and playing guys who don't move as quickly, or handle as often, as the typical small forward. And when he did have to handle such players, the results weren't great.
Lewis defended an opponent in an isolation set 164 times this season, per Synergy Sports Technology. Per possession, he yielded 0.982 points, which ranks in just the 22nd percentile of all NBA players. That showing is enough to pull him into a tie with Charlotte's Boris Diaw for 38th among the 42 players who defended at least 150 isolations this season. These data seem to support Van Gundy's claim that Lewis is at his best defensively when he's covering power forwards.
But despite all that, I do think Van Gundy has to consider letting Lewis play the three more often. As I wrote in my evaluation of Lewis' disappointing season, my "biggest concern about" him is that he's "too talented to keep loitering on the weak side, waiting for a kickout, for 33 minutes a night." Getting him more varied looks will make him a more dangerous offensive weapon. But if Orlando is to play him there, it needs to find someone who can cover small forwards at the other end. Sadly, defenders with such versatility are hard to come by in this league. You'd have to think that Dallas' Shawn Marion would be ideal, though.
Bottom line? Van Gundy can expect good results on offense when he assigns Lewis to play small forward, but he has to be prepared to live with the consequences on defense, unless GM Otis Smith somehow facilitates a trade for a skilled defensive combo forward. Such an outcome seems unlikely, but perhaps not as unlikely as the prospect of playing Lewis at the four would have seemed 5 years ago.
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Ben, I'd like to hear your thoughts on how to counter teams with physical front lines specifically...
…It sounds like your answer might be “play Rashard at the 3 and find a Shawn Marion or someone to take the 4,” but I’d be interested in hearing more. (The answer could be, do what we’ve done before, but play better. I think that’s a defensible but perhaps unsatisfying position.)
by gift of the magi on Jun 7, 2010 2:20 PM EDT reply actions
Absolutely.
For example, look at the games against Boston where Jameer was able to be effective. The Magic are almost unstoppable when the backcourt plays well because it opens everything up. I also don’t think the issue is with the frontcourt.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
I agree with that position, too...
…If we think that Nelson and Carter can score consistently enough in a seven-game series.
by gift of the magi on Jun 7, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Play ZONE, maybe?
I’m really not that worried on defense, knowing Howard is nearby. I just want Lewis at the SF position offensively. That just opens more opportunities for him.
And not only that
but everyone just blankets their concerns of his defense onto every 3 in the league on every team in the league that they all are just going to embarrass Lewis night in and night out. He would do an admirable job on the majority of them, and we still have Dwight the fail safe down low.
Burden of proof then really falls to you to make a case for your point.
Can you give us a list of the league’s SFs (supported by stats) that you think Lewis could maintain his current defensive #s against.
On the other hand, you could go look at the advanced stats from the game logs from the 2006-07 season…Lewis’ last season in Seattle where he played the SF. You’ll find that his DRtg from that year is 110. (Yes, again it is a team game.) That would place him dead last on this year’s Magic squad. Worse than Jason Williams, JJ Redick, and Anthony Johnson.
My guess is that when Lewis at SF is/was tried in practice, Barnes and MP exposed enough weaknesses that SVG has been very selective about trying it in games. But, I’m guessing.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
Drtg
Starts at the team Drtg, and then adjusts accordingly for each player. So he was an average defender on Seattle, who had a team Drtg of 110.3.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jun 8, 2010 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Average for his team – on an awful team.
The average of awful is still awful. Nobody on that team defended. Lewis hasn’t guarded the 3 well since 02/03, when he was a lot younger and faster.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 11, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
In other words
I’d say you’d need to normalize the score before it is transferable. A Z-score for instance would work great.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jun 8, 2010 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't see..
Barnes or Pietrus exposing anyone over long periods of time.
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You should
both are quick enough to blow by Lewis, especially without the ball on cuts to get an easy layup.
I can't see that
Lewis averages 15 poins a game, thereabouts, as a PF. He’d need to score about 25-30 PPG to overcome the wide open hole he’d blow in our perimeter defense. Can he do that? Maybe. Will he do that in our system? Hells no.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 8, 2010 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't see Shard getting hit for 25-30 a night at SF.
Stats say he’s a better Defender at the 3 vs 4.
You can’t compare the D of Seattle to Orlando..
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Do we have to move Lewis to the 3 in order to utilize him in the offense from the wing like a 3?
Lewis can take a good number of the league’s PF off the dribble, right? Why aren’t there more drive and dish or drive and kick plays coming from him? He’s not the only catch&shoot player on the team. If he gets around the defending PF while driving from the perimeter, the opposing C (or somebody) will have to come help….dish to Dwight or find the open player.
Do you all think this is plausible?
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
Yeah, that's the thing
I don’t think Lewis’ position is the problem as much as the playcalling is, I’d love to see him take the bigger guys on the drive. He’s a decent passer so if he can take someone slower on the floor and the help comes, he’s capable of getting the ball to Howard or one of the perimeter guys.
I think the problem is that our normal offense works so well against most teams that we kind of forget that we can play in other ways. The Lakers have the same problem – they can run the triangle and the in-out and kill teams that way, but most of the time Kobe-solation works so well they only need to play proper offense rarely, which means they’re rusty at it and forget to go to it when they need it.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 8, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions
LEWIS doesn't move well without the ball
He just stays out behind the 3 point line waiting for the ball to come to him.. Not good. If he can take the PF’s off the dribble, then why doesn’t he?
If we go traditional at PF we’d be getting better both offensively & defensively at that position. With Lewis at SF we’d be getting worse defensively but better offensively.
If Rashard is to remain at PF he should at least get 10 of his 33 minutes per game at SF.
Stan saying after the ECF loss to Boston that he wished he had’ve played Rashard more at SF when he was brought here from Seattle, means something. If we went traditional the past 3 seasons how good would Dwight’s offense be right now? Having to operate in tighter spaces would’ve forced Dwight to learn much quicker.
Basically, if we’re going to beat BOS & LA (Win a title), regardless of where Rashard is, we have to get comfortable doing everything we’re not comfortable doing now. Scoring in the paint, taking long 2’s, making good entry passes into Dwight and not taking 12 of the 24 seconds on the clock to do so, etc.
"It can be done, you can just crush somebody"
Really?
Very few traditional PFs are more efficient on offense than Rashard is, and many of those who are are low-volume guys who get most of their points on putbacks and dunks. As for defense, Rashard is at worst an average defensive PF.
I agree that Rashard should see SOME minutes at SF (against the opponent’s backups, mostly), but aside from rebounding, it’s going to take a markedly above-average started to beat him in any aspect of the game.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Assuming Bass is still on the team, of course.
Honestly, I’m not crazy about the notion of a Bass-Gortat frontcourt. (Assuming Gortat is also on the team next year.) Of course, it depends on who else is out there, and our backup guard spots are also a question mark — but I feel like that frontcourt duo is an offensive liability. Of course, putting Lewis out there would offset it somewhat.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Lewis vs. Hedo
Ben, how do you think Lewis would compare to Hedo defensively at the 3 spot? We had a good defensive team with Hedo at the 3 and if he wasn’t that great on defense I would think that Lewis wouldn’t hurt us much there either… Your thoughts?
That's a good thought.
Hedo’s DRtg his first year with the team was 110 (like Lewis the year before he arrived in ORL). Hedo’s descreased each year to a best, last season, of 104. Then, this year in Toronto? 113.
Maybe comparing Hedo and Lewis at the 3 is reasonable.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
Worse. Turk ranged from "very good" to "excellent" in every defensive category in 2008/09
In isolation sets—the focus of this post—he allowed 0.766 points per possession. Lewis, as I explained here, gave up 0.982. Ouch.
I think it’s worth a shot to try it for the whole preseason and some regular season stretch (w/ Gortat or Bass at 4) to get to study and analyze it further. Like Ben said, it feels like we are underutilizing Lewis and maybe Gortat or Bass start gelling really well with Dwight.
Also, on the low chance the Magic land Bosh, Amare, or Boozer it’d be rather obvious Lewis is at 3 most of the time. It’d be cool to see which of those statistically should match best with Dwight (I think Bosh has the best midrange shot of them, and his near league leading FTs and inside game would be devastating with D12’s FTs and strength, and the passing between two would be very good)
by derekk on Jun 7, 2010 7:02 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I agree with a lot of what everyone has said.
I’m not going to look up the statistics, but I think it’s obvious that Rashard would create a mismatch EVERY SINGLE GAME on the offensive end of the floor. Not only can he shoot from the outside ANYTIME HE WANTS, but we can utilize his very effective post up game, which goes virtually unused right now. There’s a reason he averaged over 22 pts a game his last season in Seattle.
Like warrior pointed out above, if Rashard’s DRtg was 110 his last year in Seattle, that is not that much worse than Hedo’s best DRtg in Orlando at 104. And here’s my two cents on Rashard playing defensively at the 3 – he has plenty of length to bother shots from the perimeter and enough quickness to stay with other 3s for at least the first few steps. All he has to do is funnel them to Dwight! Which is what we do now half the time anyway!
Positives seem to outweigh the negatives… and at this point, even if it is a draw, why not give it a try. Sure, we have had wonderful success the past few seasons, but you build a team to win in the playoffs. And when is say win, I mean a championship. We’ve been ousted by Championship caliber teams with physical front lines two years in a row. Try the change. Go Magic.
For what it's worth...
I have consistently been a “Rashard at the 4” guy since he got here. Time for the change.
I agree with your points
Rashard has great offensive game, and under-utilized this season.
I think he is missing Hedo’s passing as well.
But I am not sure things will change completely playing Rashard at 3 or 4. We lost to the Lakers and Celtics – not only they have physical front lines. They are very talented teams and they have guys like Kobe and PP (and Ray).
Do we need a bigger 3? (after seeing Ron Artest plays against PP).
You realize the difference between 104 and 110 Drtg is ~6 pts per game (avg. 100 possession game), right?
You realize that ORL led the league in point differential at something like 9.3?
If the 104 and 110 numbers were to hold, we’ve just surrendered most of that margin
Ergo, I don’t think it is safe to say those two numbers are “almost” the same.
To make up for that kind of loss, Lewis is going to have to generate +6 ppg in the mismatches with the opposing SF (just to break even). Where is he going to get that? Returning to his athletic form/numbers/etc. from Seattle is not too realistic, imo. Then, he was 27. This year he’ll be 31.
Most who are lobbying for Lewis at the SF spot seem to suggest that he has the greatest advantage by taking the opposing SF down on the low, left-hand block. So, what do we do with our “traditional” PF and Dwight in order to clear out that kind of space for Lewis to work to create an extra 6 ppg? Maybe he can generate those points by shooting over the top of a shorter SF?
I think we lost to Boston on the perimeter, not in the paint.
That’s where I lean as I spend more time with the boxscores In the losses, Boston was better at closing out at the 3pt line. Pierce and Allen led the scoring and 3pt barrage without ORL shutting them down. Rashard was one of the biggest culprits in missing from long range (flu?).
I don’t see how moving Lewis to the 3 fixes this. Opposing SFs score more. Rashard is more tired and shoots lower percentages.
So, I’m less and less convinced that any “upgrade” needs to come in the PF/C position.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jun 7, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You make a number of good points, but...
…it’s possible that our struggles on the perimeter (particularly Boston closing out the 3 pt line) were related to our performance in the paint.
by gift of the magi on Jun 8, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
how so?
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jun 8, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Because we didn't do enough consistently to force Boston's defense to collapse...
…Paint play isn’t the only, or necessarily most important, determinant of a collapsing defense (penetration, which Nelson showed in Games 4 and 5, is another; off-ball screens, which we use too little of, are a third option). Still, it’s possible that a 2-in/3-out offense could force defenses to collapse more on the outside. I recognize that this set is not necessarily ideal (one less shooter on the outside, clogs in the paint), but right now the organization should think creatively about different possibilities.
by gift of the magi on Jun 8, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
errr the opposing small forward
assumign that is who he would be guarding
Opps, you're right.
Additionally, Drtg is an estimate of a player’s defensive impact and probably not the best indicator of defensive contribution, but lacking any numbers for RL at SF with Orlando, we can only use the numbers/stats we have.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jun 8, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
That's what I've BEEN saying..
With Lewis at SF, he’ll have many more Offensive opportunities. I’d take that over defense because the defense is that good. It’s not like Lewis is a defensive powerhouse against anybody.
That was, seriously, the only one I could find of him guarding a SF
All the others, he was guarding PFs. Or, you know, on offense.
I'll probably write a post on this at MBN but ...
I wouldn’t mind if Lewis moved to the 3, but it’d had to be the right player at the 4 for it to make sense. Off the top of my head, there’s only a handful of those players that I’m thinking about. Lewis’ defense at small forward is a valid concern and shouldn’t be ignored, because umm … last time I checked, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, and other elite scorers ply their trade at that position. Dwight Howard’s influence only goes so far, especially when we’re talking about perimeter players. As great as Howard is, he couldn’t stop Pierce from going crazy.
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Thinking of what he’d do to Lewis make me shudder.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 8, 2010 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Great read Ben
Now time for Otis to perplex us with his decision making and pleasantly surprise us. Anthony Randolph? Or let’s fit roller skates in RA’s shoes..
Could anyone post stats of this season when Twin Towers was on the court ?
If possible showing where did the team got beat on defense ?
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
I'll try to add things up when I'll have more time but out of those minutes
only 7 had Lewis at SF. This doesn’t mean much. My initial point was to look where the team suffers in D with the two big men on the court. I think that the TT line up needs a lot of minutes to gel and I don’t know if SVG wanna take that time. Would be nice though to have the traditional 1-4 Magic offense and a variation for teams that can handle D12 one on one. I agree with Eddy that you need the right player at the 4 to make it happen if Lewis goes to 3. By the way this season Lewis played about 74min at the 3.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Yes
Dude doesnt even play the 4 spot like a 4 should and the 3 is more where he was comfortable at.
Granted we are stacked at that position now so Lewis being a problem on the defensive end can be subbed for someone else like say Barnes (who can hound players)
There is still the problem of trying to find a low post 4 which given the payroll is gonna be tough to find
"To my Hustlers, heres some motivation: He who has begun is half done, why you waiting?"-NaS
Certified Kristin Kreuk obsessive.
He was plenty comfortable at the 4 last year.
He was slightly off this season, but I wouldn’t freak out over it. I feel like most of this year’s struggles can be attributed to his 10-game suspension at the beginning of the season… he looked great in the preseason, but the team just sort of jelled without him, and he was an afterthought in the offense. He never quite caught up.
We can’t have a 4 in the low post. Dwight needs to move, and if there’s another guy (and his defender!) in the post, they’re all just going to trip over each other. (To say nothing of any backcourt guy trying to drive the lane!) There just isn’t enough room in the post for that many dudes.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Agree.
One more point….isn’t a clogged post/lane why most teams look for a PF that can hit the mid-range jumper? To open up the middle more by drawing the defender away from the paint? Having a PF that can drain the 3pt’r is a more efficient version of that.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jun 9, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Gotta do this
Lewis was having an elite offensive impact as a small forward, a big reason I imagine that he attracted that max contract. In terms of the bass line D that Seattle registered Lewis was actually slightly better than an average Sonic defender. Transfer this over to Orlando and to his switch to the 4 and his defensive impact has actually gotten slightly worse. Now, I have no idea about fg% against numbers for Lewis as a SF, and this would be useful in general, but based on what we have Lewis is an average defender at both the 4 and the 3, while registering as an all star scorer at the 3. His numbers have been declining, I think a switch could be just want the Dr. ordered.
Also, I would love to see Anderson get that 4 spot. We keep the stretch, gain in rebounding. Who knows about that affects FG% defense, but something tells Dwight can handle it.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
Dwight doesn't handle midrange shooters
Anderson and Lewis (as a SF) both struggle to defend the mid-range, though for different reasons – Anderson because he doesn’t get out, and Lewis (as a SF) because he can’t stay with the quicker perimeter players.
The mid-range jumper might be the least efficient shot in basketball overall, but in the hands of a skilled practitioner, when it’s uncontested, it’s deadly.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 8, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
For me, the way ATL did it in that series was the perfect example of what can go wrong when
you start shooting mid-range when you’re suposed to drive. And an example that I don’t want to think of in the next series, was how a mid-range jumper can kill ypu.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Nobody shoots it at better then 50-55%, though.
Not in the long run. 1 to 1.1 points per shot.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
That's because
Nobody gets them all uncontested.
You give Paul Pierce 20 marginally contested or uncontested midrange shots and he’ll a) probably score about 11-12 of them most days and b) get to the line on 4 or 5 of the times he hits them.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 8, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Lewis is okay at what he does.
Not for the money he makes, but watching him and reading these comments, I don’t think there’s much else that can be done with him. Management probably agreed about that part when they looked to get that bonafide slasher/playmaker—the one that would free up Dwight, and get Lewis his shots. Only it doesn’t work out so well when that slasher/playmaker is VC. It looked like a great idea, just probably would have worked better with a player in the mold of Iggy, Ellis, or Stuckey (not necessarily them…just someone that has decent handles, looks to finish strong at the rim first but can find the open man when he can’t).
My point in typing this is to say that most of us agree that Lewis is a defensive liability at the 3 and an offensive liability (when his shot isn’t falling of course) at the 4. So rather than figure out what to do with him, it looks much simpler to just ask for more from another player at another position (the 2 or 3)
PS, I know Stuckey is a PG, I mentioned him because of his style of play. Jumpshots for him do not happen often. Doesn’t matter why…they just don’t.
You have to have the ball to score
Rashard played 3.3 fewer minutes per game and and his usage when in the game was down 12%. His defensive rating was 104 versus 103 last year but his offensive rating dropped from 113 to 111 amd his assist rate dropped 12.5 to 7.4, reflecting fewer handles, His True Shooting was 57.3% versus 58.0% last year.
To me this says the “problem”, if there is one, is that Turk fed Rashard more opportunities were Vince was more likely to make a play for himself. That said, the solution is to either have Vince be more aware of Rashard when he drives, or to find smeone who will.
Bringing in a hulking, big bodied banger to clog the lane would make Dwight less efficient as well as taking needed space for Jameer and Vince to drive the lane. It may be if Vince can stay healthy he will adapt to the Magic offensive and solve the Rashard problem.
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by NC Magic Fan on Jun 8, 2010 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
The Ortg decline is also alarming since the team Ortg actually improved
Lewis really struggled this year, quite dramatically.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jun 8, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
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