Evaluating Marcin Gortat
by Evan Dunlap on Jun 3, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
in Evaluations
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Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith turned a lot of heads when he matched the Dallas Mavericks' offer sheet, worth the full mid-level exception, to Marcin Gortat this summer. After all, Gortat backs up Dwight Howard, the league's best center, and thus only figures to play 10-15 minutes per game. Not only that, but there was some speculation that a contract push by Gortat inflated his statistics last season. So how did he fare in the first ear of his five-year deal? Not so dissimilarly to Vince Carter, as it turns out. Like Carter, Gortat's performance this year only bolstered the lazy arguments critics of his and Smith's made, which is really quite a shame.
| Marcin Gortat | ||
|---|---|---|
| No. 13 | ||
| Center | ||
| Points Per Game | Rebounds Per Game | Blocks Per Game |
| 3.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| Points Per 36 | Rebounds Per 36 | Blocks Per 36 |
| 9.7 | 11.3 | 2.3 |
| PER | Rebound Rate | Block Rate |
| 13.9 | 18.1 | 4.8 |
| FG% | 3FG% | FT% |
| .533 | .000 | .680 |
| eFG% | TS% | |
| .533 | .563 | |
All statistics in this table from Gortat's player page at basketball-reference. Career-high statistics highlighted in gold. | ||
Yes, he posted career-lows in per-minute scoring and rebounding, as well as Player Efficiency Rating. Yet I don't get the sense that Gortat mailed this season in after getting his new deal. Early in the season, he complained of fatigue, due to playing in the World Championships Eurobasket in his native Poland after a deep NBA Finals run. And it's true that Gortat often lacked energy, which explains how his rebound rate dropped from a stratospheric 20.3% last season to a more reasonable 18.1% this season, which represents a 10.8% decrease. Now, an 18.1% rebound rate is nothing at which to scoff. Even in a down year by his standards, Gortat's total rebound rate tied him for 14th in the entire league, just ahead of rebounding specialist David Lee of the New York Knicks. And despite the lack of energy, he blocked a higher rate of shots than ever before.
But don't mistake shot-blocking for good defense. Whatever the cause--fatigue? lack of focus? indifference?--Gortat went from one of the league's best defenders to merely being quite good. Orlando could do worse than to have a "very good" defender, as Synergy Sports Technology's data describe him, backing up the two-time reigning defensive player of the year. This is true. Yet one of the biggest advantages to playing Gortat behind Howard last year was the consistently incredible defense both guys provided at center. This year, it went from near the top of the league with Howard in to, again, just quite good. A lot of teams would love to have this problem, I suppose.
The fatigue may have affected him just as much on offense as it did on defense. Check out the staggering drop-off in his post-up offense, per Synergy:
| Play Type | Season | %Time | Points Per Possession | Rating (Percentile) | %Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-Ups | 2009/2010 | 16.0% | 0.600 | Poor (11) | 32.0% |
| 2008/2009 | 22.0% | 0.904 | Very Good (71) | 46.2% |
Gortat continued to excel as a roll-man to the basket, thanks to his excellent hands, good passes from the likes of J.J. Redick and Jason Williams, and the remarkable lack of attention defenses pay to him. Yet when called upon to create his own offense with his back to the basket, he often failed to deliver. Speaking strictly about this season, that's a negative, but it could bode well for him going forward. He's unlikely to duplicate that level of inefficiency, which is why I believe he will have a bounce-back season in 2010/2011.
Of course, he may not get that opportunity in Orlando. Though he had a down year, Gortat's only 26 years old, reasonably paid relative to other starting-caliber centers, and quite talented. Smith may look to move him this offseason, though my sense is that he'd be best served trading Brandon Bass instead.
I do believe a bounce-back year is in the offing for the Polish Machine. But we're talking just about this season, sadly, and he didn't do too well here. Orlando needs Gortat to become less flighty and return to his 2008/2009 form. It's a realistic expectation, but one that it may have to exhibit remarkable patience to see fulfilled.
| Grade: C+ |
|---|
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Poland playing any games this summer?
Another excellent write up. I thought he looked a step (and sometimes more) slow defensively all year long. I’m not sure fatigue was the only reason, or just having to focus on being dialed in every day. It’s a difficult thing to do when the team MVP is going to get all the minutes he able/allowed to play.
I give him a B because he had a very tough job
The spread offense that we run is perfect for Dwight Howard. He doesn’t need any help down low and he frees at least one shooter up against most teams. Gortat isn’t in Dwight’s talent bracket, yet he has the same job in the second unit. With Anderson at the PF, Gortat has no insurance. Anything that happens in the paint is on him. That’s a tough gig, tougher than what most starting centers are asked to do. I give Gortat the benefit of the doubt and give him a B.
Although we could get some nice pieces, i agree that we’d be better off trading Bass. Gortat is the reason Orlando can run their offense with the second unit. Substitute him for a “replacement player” and the second unit would struggle.
One Freaken Second
I'd Give Him a C-
I think everyone can agree that while Gortat is a hardworking player, Ben’s speculation of working hard last year because of his “contract year” cannot be without remiss. Watching him on the court this year was a treasure, but at most times a pain; seeing his long spidery frame attack the defense and then seemingly allowing a backdoor offensive player to sneak by for the goal. On the offense end it wasn’t much better, as it seemed like a real chore for Gortat to slam or even score in transition. Another thing that bothered me is that, while on offense, it always seemed like he was completely suprised to get the ball from a teammate. The shock of “actually-being-passed-to!” seemed to limit quickness and effectivness in the post, and more of then not, spun around (with back to the basekt) for an easy miss. While I continue to support him, and lobby him on our team for next year, the Gortat we saw emerge for such instances like the Philadelphia playoff game 6 was no where to be found, save for small stretches of unhindered play. C-
Magic fan since 99-00
I actually think the Gortat of last year as opposed to this year was the abbiration. I don’t expect his play to pick up any more than it was at this year. He was banking on a deal as a starting center on another team, and now that dream is effectively lost, in his mind. This year’s play most certainly showed that. Expect more of the same next year.
Nothing. This is just playing pop-psychologist.
We have no idea what drives/motivates Gortat unless he shares something that provides that info.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
"With Anderson at the PF, Gortat has no insurance."
Which is why we need Bass in at back up PF. Doesn’t fit our system? Bullcrap.
We had Tony freakin Battie as our back up PF when we made our Finals run. We couldn’t do it with Bass instead??
Are you EVER going to stop beating the Bass drum?
We GET IT, you like Brandon Bass! We know how you feel. Brandon Bass is the best, we are a bunch of haters. Brandon Bass could fit our system if we give him a try, blah blah blah. Guess what? We TRIED him and he DIDN’T get it! This post is about Marcin Gortat! STFU about Brandon Bass, already! For god sakes, we’re all tired of it! You do not have to say one more time how much you like Brandon Bass and dislike Ryan Anderson. WE GET IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm a girl too.
Haters gonna hate.
I like Bass TOO!
We GET IT, you DON’T like Brandon Bass! You ARE a hater. Bass or any PF (besides Lewis, who’s not really a PF) wont work in svg’s system. And he’s right.. Battie backed up Howard and Lewis at PF last year.
So do we keep Goratat, or do we trade him? I say trade.
But imo, I think he’s capable of a B+ if he would’ve got any major playing time..
Lol
I am tired of the Brandon Bass love obsession as well.
"I just Rashard'ed my pants!!!!"
by Wally Balls 407 on Jun 3, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
“Tony freakin Battie” actually isn’t a horrible comparison to Bass in per-36 numbers through their first five seasons:
Battie: 11.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.6 turnovers, 5.0 fouls
Bass: 14.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 0.6 steals, 1.9 turnovers, 3.4 fouls
So, Bass scores more and fouls less, but is inferior in every other category to Tony Battie.
Just for comparison:
Anderson (2 seasons): 15.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 0.6 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.9 turnovers, 3.9 fouls
Anderson scores more, rebounds more, has essentially equivalent block+steal numbers, and turns the ball over exactly as much as the more experienced Bass. The only knock on Anderson statistically is his higher foul rate, at 0.5 fouls per 36 minutes higher than Bass.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Yeah...
…I was about to point that out. Bass and Battie are essentially the same player, except that one misses more rotations on defense and takes more shots. Given the low-efficiency nature of Bass and Battie’s preferred offense, I’m not even sure that’s a bonus.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Adding to the comparison
Both have shot exactly 49.0% for their careers.
Freaky…
Honor is no substitute for victory.
you're not getting what I'm saying
Gortat is one of the few centers in the league who can get away with having no insurance. He’s one of the few guys this 4 out system works with. Sometimes it gets the better of him. When he has an off game the offensive system emphasizes it. So I give him the benefit of the doubt. Having Bass in there just changes everybody elses role.
One Freaken Second
by magic fanatic on Jun 3, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
That someone is comparable or better to "Tony freakin Battie"
shouldn’t be THE reason for them to clinch a back up PF spot. You know who else is better than Tony Battie? Ryan Anderson.
Also, I’m pretty sure we can all agree “Tony Battie” polls pretty low on Why the Magic Made the Finals Last Year.
(Sorry, Tony)
by Stan in a Van (Down by the River) on Jun 3, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I say we trade Gortat.
He’s just not doing anything coming off the bench for Howard. A part of me wished he went to the Mavs just because I knew he’d play more… That’s all he wants.
I agree with Ben's evaluation and just like to add for the laughs
J-Will said after Gortat missed the dunk of his great behind the back pass that if he was to do that again he would take his visa back. All season long Gortat seemed to have a keen ability to miss finishing great passes from J-Will and JJ. That been said I was glad that Otis kept him in Orlando but the summer excuse is just not good enough for me. I think he was very disapointed not to play more minutes (which he deserves) in another team. I would love to give him a B- but the way his numbers droped doesn’t make it fair. I still find him a solid back-up (even if many here disagree) and we should always keep in the back of our minds that even superman can get injured.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Future for Gortat as a Magic Player
Regardless of how you feel about Gortat’s play in Orlando, I think it’s a pretty simple evaluation for his future here. If Dwight Howard is ever injured during the playoffs, we’re not winning the title. Gortat might be a capable starting center, but without Howard, the whole thing becomes moot. That doesn’t mean you just jettison Gortat for a 2nd round pick. However, if you can get any type of return talent (such as a quality backup PG, or a SF who can get to the rim)— then he’s expendable.
The tough thing with analyzing this team is that there are no liabilities. There are no “holes.” Are biggest weaknesses are all-star players who played below all-star capability in a tough series against future hall-of-famers. It’s possible to get better, perhaps as some suggested by shipping out depth and an aging former all-star in return for an up and coming all-star. Gortat is just another example of the ridiculous depth and talent this team had, that unfortunately fell a bit short at the end.
I don't think we trade Gortat for a backup.
For one reason and one reason only: we can get a starter for him. He’s still a very good defender, and that rebounding speaks for itself. A smart team will see him as a potential 10/10/2 player, and will pay accordingly.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Is there really much to say about Gortat?
Good player, great rebounder, limited minutes, seemed a bit lost this season, but can you blame him? Definitely our biggest trade-value guy, if we decide to go that route, which we probably should. I’ll miss him, but he deserves to start somewhere.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Trade Gortat for a high draft pick................
Teams like Sacramento, Golden State, Utah, Houston, New Orleans, etc…. would love to have a big man in their teams; with a move like this the Magic could save some money, get the best available player in the draft (regardless position) and sign a veteran player to do the dirty work in the floor.
D -
I give Gortat a grade of “D -”, reason being , more often than not this season his lack of energy, on the defensive end and on Offense, cost ’d the team pts,hey! dude got a fat ass contract, he thought that he was headed 2 Dallas to start alongside that strappin German “Dirk da Jerk”, he was upset with MAGIC for matching the offer, and IT showed most of the season , with his very, very, unenthusiasctical (Garbage) EFFORT!!!! IMO….HE MAILED IT IN (BIGTIME)…..trade this goofball, any other up-n-coming big man , would be HAPPY to come in after D12 has softened them UP with a couple of blows to da dome..LOL GO MAGIC!!!!!!
Disclaimer:
I any NO way endorse or approve of illegal. or otherwise dirty way of playing the GAME.(but if your face happens to come in contact with Dwight Howards’(hereafter known as "Superman, AKA: D12, AKA: DMAGICMAN12) . It’s your fault, YOU ARE PLAYING HIM 2 CLOSE…….GO MAGIC!!!! ( “F” da celtics)
True, but if he doesn’t want 2 be here, and continues to play uninspired ball, what are the teams real(attainable) options?
.......
that ’s an option, but , he does still trade value right? lets get someone who wants to be here! GO MAGIC!!!!!!
We need a replacement for Gortat before we trade him
Glad he had Foyle taking up a roster spot ijnstead of a young guy who can actually help us in the future
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Jun 3, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not that
The only reason to trade Gortat, in my opinion, is to use his value to bring in a player who’ll play more minutes at another position – say, a starting SF if Barnes leaves. And then we should only do it if we can bring in a reasonable guy to backup Howard – we won’t get someone as good as Gortat, but we still need someone who can play reasonably.
by eltharion_doa on Jun 4, 2010 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions
His "uninspired ball" includes 4.2 rebounds in 11.6 minutes per game.
I’d hate to see what he’d be doing if he was “inspired”.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
Correction.
13.4 minutes per game — not sure where I got 11.6 from.
Still a pretty impressive number, though.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
At times Gortat seemed to lack last year's energy, but....
cost ’d the team pts
FYI. With Gortat on the floor, the Magic were +2.94 points adj plus/minus for the season. No matter who else was on the floor with him.
and please cut it out with the caps lock
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
haha look up for his evaluation
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
by Souwantmyname on Jun 3, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i say trade gortat not because i dislike him or anything but i want him to be able ro reach his full potential and being a back up for dwight is not were thats going to happen if we can get a decent draft pick or a player for him pull the trigger
Plus i would like to play him at the four but to be honest we have gortat, bass and Anderson that could be playing the four but with stan we know that he would much rather put lewis there….
Gortat can't play the 4.
Not alongside Howard. Even if they could get the defense to work, it’s a disastrous offensive strategy. Consider this — Bass is arguably an offensive liability alongside Howard because he doesn’t have enough range. Where does that leave Gortat?
No disrespect to the guy — he’s a really good player. Just saying he’s a center, and that’s all he really should be doing in the league.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
I said "arguably".
I know you don’t believe it, but a lot of people do. I’m willing to consider it an open question, though the stats suggest that Howard + Bass is a bad frontcourt combination from an offensive perspective.
My point is, if Bass is a borderline case, a guy who’s a worse scorer with much less range… isn’t borderline.
The Magic's total second-round margin of victory: 101 points.
The Hawks' highest second-round game score: 98 points.
“Gortat went from one of the league’s best defenders to….”
What the….really? One of the league’s best defenders? The guy is a solid backup and worthy of starting on a handfull of teams in the league, but among the best defenders (even last season) is quite a stretch
*cue advanced stat from Ben*
In Gene We Trust.
by MoveThoseChains on Jun 3, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Hello there
not trolling, but the rating is fair IMO. He’s worth B- at best.
Here’s a confession. Some of us were quite pleased when Mr. Otis Smith matched the Mav’s offer. If the deal actually pushed through, the Dallas-San Antonio series results would be quite different, IMO. Even the Western Conference Playoffs could have been different. But we will never know now. We hope he remains with the Magic, or out of the West at least.
"E-Coaches are heavy in here tonight! Take E-Sasha and put him on the E-bench on your fantasy league, that’ll show him!" - Jevon O
but long term though
I think he could go at least a B+, should he get to start for another team, with longer minutes. That’s how solid I think the guy is.
"E-Coaches are heavy in here tonight! Take E-Sasha and put him on the E-bench on your fantasy league, that’ll show him!" - Jevon O
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