A Quick Explication of the Orlando Magic's 16-1 Stretch
by Ben Q Rock on May 10, 2010 8:01 AM EDT
in Analysis
20 comments
There's no denying that the Orlando Magic are on a roll. As ESPN's Marc Stein pointed out yesterday on Twitter, they're 16-1 since a buzzer-beating loss to the Atlanta Hawks on March 24th, with the lone loss coming on the second night of a back-to-back against the San Antonio Spurs in which Manu Ginobili erupted for 43 points. And tonight, with a victory over the Hawks, they can record their second straight playoff sweep.
So, how good have the Magic been during this stretch, which spans the final 6 games of the regular season and all 7 playoff games? I checked the Four Factors to find out.
| Team | Efficiency | eFG% | FT Rate | OReb% | TO Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic | 122.6 | 57.3% | 25.4 | 27.0 | 14.3 | |
| Opponents | 104.7 | 47.5% | 22.3 | 23.7 | 14.5 | |
| Green denotes a stat better than NBA regular-season average; red denotes a stat worse than NBA regular-season average. | ||||||
Uh, yeah, the Magic are dominating on both sides of the ball; just look at that 17.9 efficiency differential! Defensively, Orlando is holding its opponents to below league average in each of the Four Factors as well as offensive efficiency. More impressively, the Magic are beating league average themselves in three of the Factors, with the only slippage coming in the turnover area.
If you want to disregard the regular season, then consider this: Orlando scored 114.2 points per 100 possessions against the Charlotte Bobcats, the league's most efficient defensive team, in the first round. And in their current series, the Magic have limited the Hawks, owners of the league's second-most efficient offensive attack, to 95.2 points per 100 possessions.
So it's clear that Orlando's success of late is no fluke. It's truly firing on all cylinders, so to speak, on both sides of the ball. The Magic's top-notch execution, coupled with their singular focus on winning a championship, has made them as lethal a team as any other in the league. And yet they remain squarely under the radar, as stories about LeBron James' elbow, the Hawks' pending summer shakeup, and the fall of the Spurs' dynasty have dominated the headlines. I'm sure that's all just fine with coach Stan Van Gundy and his Magic, though. They're biding their time, studying film, and constantly looking for ways to improve. Though it's far too early to consider them--or anyone else, for that matter--the "favorites" to win the championship this season, they're putting themselves in position to be part of that conversation when it happens.
Finally, for fun, here's a table showing the Magic's victory margin during that 16-1 stretch:
| Margin of Victory (Range) | Times Recorded |
|---|---|
| 4-10 | 6 |
| 11-20 | 7 |
| 21-30 | 2 |
| 31-40 | 0 |
| 40+ | 1 |
0 recs |
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Ben,
would you have a stat showing how many times did the Magic played transition offense by posession compared to half court and what were the results of those two types of game during the regular season ?
(I hope this question makes sense)
Time to get that finger bling-bling
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
I can look that up later when I have more time, but I do know they were really horrible in transition offense this season.
It is transition offense you’re looking for, right? Not defense?
yes, right, thanks a lot.
Time to get that finger bling-bling
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
OK, Orlando's awful in transition
They score 1.10 points per possession, 22nd in the league
They score just 49.9% of the time, 30th in the league
10.8% of their offense starts in transition, 23rd in the league.
So the bad news is the Magic can’t run. The good news is that they seem to know it.
In the half-court?
0.98 points per possession (2nd)
Score 45.2% of the time (4th)
In case anyone’s curious, the league’s best transition offensive team is the Bobcats.
Thanks Ben.
I was wondering how bad it was. I was thinking if, in an eventual rematch with LA, it would be a good idea to “run” the team
more in order to avoid facing a set defense with Bynum and Pau but since it’s not really SVG’s game and seeing the stats
it’s clear that it’s not a good idea at all.
Time to get that finger bling-bling
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
The stats wouldn’t suggest that – if you look at the actual numbers, rather than the rankings, transition doesn’t look as bad. Transition scores 4.7% more often, and scores 0.12 more points per possession. It’s bad relative to other teams, but still better than standard half-court.
However, I agree that it’s not SVG’s game, and it would be better to slow our opponent down into a half-court game rather than make it a track meet. Stylistically, we want both teams playing half-court basketball.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
49% scoring in transition isn’t a good number.
Time to get that finger bling-bling
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Well, I’m guessing that Orlando takes its fair share of threes on transition, so that 49.9% is pretty useless as a stat. It’s like how they’re only 7th in FG% but 2nd in eFG%.
By the way, where are these stats from? I would like to see what range the numbers run from. If 5th in the league and 25th in the league only differ by 0.1 points in possession, for instance, then it’s pretty insignificant. Charlotte is one of the worst offenses in the NBA and Orlando is one of the best, so is there any correlation between Off. Eff. and transition offense?
Magic need to work on the '31-40' bracket
That 0 victories is a little worrying to me.
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
OT: Guys you need to check this out
from the SB homepage. Make sure to visit the four part links from ball don’t lie at the bottom of the page. Great material.
Time to get that finger bling-bling
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Awesome - I had seen 20-16, but hadn't seen the rest of the updates
Nash gets on that list a lot. Maybe he really is The Most Ridiculous Man In The World.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Rob Parker doesn't know anything about basketball
Still hatin on Orlando. When he hates on Orlando he hates on the hawks, and while the hawks are sucking right now, he still knows jack about b-ball
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
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