Dwight scores at MVP Quality, not MVP Quantity
by magicfaninTN on Apr 2, 2010 7:04 AM EDT
Email
Print[4/1/2010 data from ESPN.com, Hoopdata.com, and basket-reference.com, players on pace for 70 games and 1400 points to qualify. FYI, Gil Arenas is the only top 25 player to not make the cut due to limited games played.]
What if Dwight shot the ball as much as the league's other scoring leaders?
Dwight is currently 26th in the league at 18.6 points per game (ppg).
Field Goal Attempts Per Game
- Dwight takes 10.3 fga per game. Lowest in the top 60! scorers. Efficient!
- Scorers #1-25 average 17.0 fga per game.
- That's an average difference of 6.7 fga per game less for Dwight.
Field Goal Percentages
- Dwight is 1st in FG% at .607
- 1st in eFG% at .607
- 2nd in TS% at .631 (trails Nene's .633, who is #66 in ppg at 13.9ppg)
- Players #1-25 average eFG% = .507
- Dwight makes a ridiculous 1.81 points per shot (C. Maggette is 2nd at 1.58pps).
The Big Men Who Score More Than Dwight
The PFs and Cs who rank above Dwight in ppg are, in order: Dirk, Bosh, Stoudemire, Z Randolph, NYK's D. Lee, Boozer, NJN's B. Lopez, & NOH's D. West.
What if Dwight took as many shots as the scoring leaders ahead of him on the list? What would his PPG be?
Calculation #1 - if Dwight shot the scoring leader average 17.0 fga per game:
If you use his .607 FG% for the extra 6.7 FGAs, it would be 26.7ppg.
Dwight's current 18.6ppg + (6.7 more shots * .607FG% * 2pts per basket) = 26.7ppg
Good for 5th behind LeBron & Durant (29.7ppg on 20.1fga), Carmelo (28.5ppg on 21.9fga), and Kobe (27.2ppg on 21.4fga).
Dwight would still be averaging at least 3 fewer shots per game than these other leaders and no 3-pointers to speak of. Pretty efficient scoring even with his lower free throw percentage.
Calculation #2 - if Dwight took LeBron's 20.1 fga per game:
If Dwight took the extra 9.8 shots per game to equal LeBron's 20.1 FGAs (note Dwight's USG% is not even in the top 20), Dwight would score 30.5ppg to lead the league! (And, on-air personalities would probably all call him a chucker.)
Dwight's current 18.6ppg + (9.8 more FGA * .607 FG% * 2pts per basket) = 30.5ppg
Calculation #3 - if Dwight's extra 6.7 fgas are shot at a lower percentage:
But let's assume that taking more shots might lower Dwight's shooting percentage a little. To be fair, let's use the average eFG% for the 25 players above Dwight (.507) for these extra 6.7 shots.
Dwight's current 18.6ppg + (6.7 more FGA * .507 eFG% * 2pts per basket) = 25.4ppg
Still good for 7th, just ahead of Dirk and just behind #5 D. Wade (26.2ppg on 19.6fga) and #6 M. Ellis(25.5ppg on 22.0fga). He'd still have the highest ppg for for all PF's and C's in the league.
Calculation #4 - if Dwight shot the same (lower) number of free throws as the top 25 average:
Dwight leads the league in FTA per game at 10.2. Players #1-25 average only 6.5 FTA per game. What if we lowered Dwight's FTA so that his scoring is calculated matching this lower average?
If Dwight shot his .603 FT% at 6.5 attempts per game, he'd score 2.25 points per game less. But, I'd say we really ought to ignore a deduction like that; because if Dwight shot 6.7 more FGA per game, then it is likely that he'd get fouled more (rather than less) and thereby get more (rather than less) FTA [UPDATE - especially since Dwight is 3rd in the league in FTA/FGA at 0.99]. But, even if we did take away those 2.25 free throw points, you get 25.4ppg - 2.25ftm = 23.1ppg. Good for 10th in the league; behind PFs Dirk & Bosh and ahead of Ama're.
Final Thought
Would those kind of numbers help his MVP campaign? Probably. It would be harder for the casual analyst (yes, I know that should be an oxymoron) to ignore his offensive contributions.
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
14 comments
|
8 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well done TN & Definitely rec'd
One thing I’d like to point out: Would more touches and scoring opportunities effect Dwight defensively? If so, how so? And would it make him less effective or more effective?
I only ask because right now Dwight’s defense is imperative to the Magic winning. But, a slightly less prominent Dwight offensively helps & hurts.
Either way, Dwight is just one proof how PPG isn’t the end all be all of players.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Good questions about having to play at both ends.
And, just to clarify, I’m certainly not advocating for Dwight to get that many more shots. It would hurt the team scoring balance the Magic have.
I’m just trying to point out that the offensive numbers (especially ppg) are not always apples to apples…or as you say, “PPG isn’t the end all be all of players,” or the end all be all of statistical measure either for that matter.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Apr 2, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I think what people are impressed by with LeBron is his total impact on the game.
His passing, rebounding, defense etc etc.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I am especially impressed with his 3-point shooting
at the end of the game. He is a true sportsman and gives everyone a chance to stay in the game that way.
"Loose ball foul on whatever the hell his name is." - Joey Crawford calling a foul on Stojko Vrankovic
The only way to stop LeBron is Smith and Wesson, but even that's a double team.
by NC Magic Fan on Apr 5, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL NC
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
That's a good question.
As someone that has watched almost every game the Magic have played since drafting Dwight, it is my impression that he is more engaged on defense when he is more involved in the offense. I don’t know if Ben or Eddy (or any of the other members of the OPP community) can corroborate this based on their own observations, but that’s what I see…
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
Eye-opening analasys.
Rec’d. The big-league sports writers should see this. Now, if we could analyze how dwight’s fouls are called compared with the other supers, or how fouls against him are/aren’t called vs. Kobe, et al, … That guy really gets hit a lot during games. Another reason I like our hockey enforcer (Barnes).
Very interesting read
"Everyone is passionate about the Magic and that's great, but the key is keeping things in perspective and staying realistic." - erivera7
"Orlando Solar Bears... 2000-01 IHL Champions"
by Mike from Illinois on Apr 5, 2010 4:12 PM EDT reply actions
Cavs fan here guys so be nice. I’ll leave all my snarky comments for later this summer (hopefully!).
But I would like to honestly comment on this part of your well written article:
“The Big Men Who Score More Than Dwight
The PFs and Cs who rank above Dwight in ppg are, in order: Dirk, Bosh, Stoudemire, Z Randolph, NYK’s D. Lee, Boozer, NJN’s B. Lopez, & NOH’s D. West."
Don’t you feel DH would be a better and more consistent offensive force if he actually developed a reliable 15 foot jump shot like the guys you mentioned above? Granted you guys watch a lot more of him than me, but his offensive game does not seem to have evolved at all since he came into the league.
Now you may say that he doesn’t need a jumper since he is so dominant down low, but without one, I don’t see him ever cracking that 22-25 ppg level.
Thoughts?
Thanks for your question.
1. Dwight actually has a jumper but seems consistently shy about using it. So, I guess then we’d be hard pressed to say he has a consistent jumper, eh?
2. Sure, you’re point is well taken, if he could get away from the basket a little more and score consistently, he’d have a higher ppg total.
3. However, not sure the Magic win more games if Dwight scores significantly more than he does now. The offensive balance for this team has been pretty good and seems to consider both the personnel and the personalities of the players. This year, Dwight’s role has been to score down low and leave the other shots to the rest of the team.
4. If you were able to watch him more, you’d see he’s developed significantly in the area of passing out of double-teams and moving the ball back to the perimeter. It is often remarked around here that with Dwight we should track “hockey-assists”…i.e. the pass before the assist.
5. Moving further from the basket tends to reduce the efficiency of the shots, until you cross the 3pt line and then the efficiency jumps back up. If you check the % of shots the Magic take at the rim/<10ft and 3-pointers you will begin to notice an intentionality to the offense.
6. Finally, visit any time you can, but we hope you’ll realize we like to keep this a fairly low-snark, high sportsmanship board…that’s the tone set and modeled by the editors. Lots of other Magic fansites if you want to banter like that. But, I will say we certainly hope you’ll have nothing to be snarky about during this post-season. ;-)
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Apr 13, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The snarky thing was just a joke. I try to be a rational, somewhat objective fan when I venture to someone else’s site. Trolling never really accomplishes anything.
Thanks for the responses. In terms of your point # 3 above, I never stated it would make them better. But to be fair, I don’t think you did either in your original post. I think we are both just talking about DH’s ppg completely separate from wins and losses.
To say that his offensive game hasn't evolved at all since he came into the league is absolutely false!
Because he hasn’t developed a jump shot doesn’t mean his offensive game hasn’t improved. He has developed shots with both hands from various ranges in the paint, drop steps, spin moves and many other facets to his game that he never had early in his career. He has also improved quite a bit in passing out of the double-team, being more patient when a double-team comes, and recognizes his options much better when the double-team comes, and it almost always comes.
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
Fair enough, like I said above you guys watch him more than I do. But a nice 15-20 foot jumper might be able to get him quicker points with less pounding on his body.
Although i believe DH being near the lane at all times is probably in the Magic’s best interest.
I dispute that a jump shot will get him quicker points
It normally occurs during a half-court scenario, and usually only when the paint has been locked down by the opposition. When you have the speed and power of Dwight I don’t think you’d want to be settling for jump shots.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
