Lack of Face Time between the Orlando Magic's Best Unit and the Charlotte Bobcats' Best Unit Complicates Analysis of Pending Playoff Series

by Evan Dunlap on Apr 16, 2010 8:00 AM EDT in Analysis

Yesterday, I wrote about the difficulty of predicting the Orlando Magic/Charlotte Bobcats playoff series due to neither team really being at 100% during their head-to-head meetings this season. That line of thought got me to wondering about how the Magic's starters fared against the Bobcats' starters, albeit in limited minutes.

BasketballValue.com has these statistics readily available. They bode well for Orlando, as the Magic's starting lineup of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard stymied Charlotte in a little over 27 minutes this season. The offense was horrid, scoring just 54 points in 53 possessions. But the D? That's where Orlando excelled, limiting Charlotte to 36 points in 53 possessions with that lineup.

That the Magic's starters dominated isn't really a surprise. John Schuhmann of NBA.com consulted StatsCube and found that "[t]he Magic starters are the best starting unit in the East, both offensively and defensively," scoring 113.3 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 95.0.

But there's a bit of a catch here. The Bobcats' best lineup, according to Schuhmann, features Raymond Felton, Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, and Tyson Chandler. That fivesome has spent a grand total of 9:30 on the court against the Magic this season, and that was in November, and it came against a Magic lineup featuring Mickael Pietrus instead of Barnes at small forward.

What I'm getting at is that, for all the things we do know about these teams' tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses, there's not a helluva lot we know about how that's going to play out on the court. Four games between the teams this season, sure, but not a lot of history we can bank on when it comes to predicting the outcome of this series. We'll know more this Sunday. Pay special attention to how Orlando's starters fare against the Felton/Jackson/Wallace/Diaw/Chandler group, since those lineups figure to share the court plenty this postseason.

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Reading some predictions here and there all over the web...

in sites like ESPN, ESPNDeportes, Yahoo, SI.com, etc. it seems that there is a general consensus that the Magic will prevail in 6 games. It is pretty much what I think will happen too.

Magic Fan since the 1992-1993 Season.

by North of the South on Apr 16, 2010 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

My personal opinion...

Magic over the Bobcats as early as 4, and no later than 5. I think CHA will win that first game at home, game #3.

Vince Carter - Half Man, Half Retired

Matt Barnes - Half Man, Half Tattoo

by magic12ball on Apr 16, 2010 9:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Agree

but apparently Skip “Douche Troll” Bayless has us on upset alert…

"One thing about knowing that you're dying is that it keeps reminding you you're alive so it's no time to pass up a party."
- Warren Zevon

by Wally Balls 407 on Apr 16, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

LOL@Bayless description.

Awesome!

"Morning yall up early w/ the babies watchn Dora. Seems Lamar can't keep my name out his mouth maby I need 2 put my sons shitty diaper n it"~Matt Barnes

by BS Patrol on Apr 16, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Mark Jackson (ESPN) also says we are most likely to be upset in the East.

Magic Fan since the 1992-1993 Season.

by North of the South on Apr 16, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Magic in 5 for me.

But I am being sort of optimistic because the Bobcats are a pretty tough draw at number 7. Luckily, they aren’t very good on the road and we have homecourt advantage. It does seem like Charlotte is a little more banged up at the moment than we are, but Vince could always twist his ankle in the first 90 seconds of Game 1.

The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy

by cgsimone on Apr 16, 2010 10:08 AM EDT reply actions

Magic in Four

This is the Cat’s first playoff appearance, do you remember our first series? I want to say we got swept by Reggie Miller but I was 8 and the only thing I really understood was that MJ wasn’t playing that year. The Magic have experience, talent and home court. The Cat’s have… MJ as an owner and a bunch of guys who didn’t really belong anywhere else. If we don’t get the sweep we will take it in 5 and you can take that to the Bank people.

PS Now is not the time to joke about VC’s ankle.

by The Magic Man on Apr 16, 2010 10:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Yeah, sorry. I don't mean to be gloomy.

I was at that game against Denver where Vince went out and JJ had that amazing night so it’s fresh in my mind. That was a really special game to be at.

The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy

by cgsimone on Apr 16, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I would hate to see Vince mess up an ankle...

I wouldn’t want anything to happen to his bad shoulder either and his knee either, that is going around too. :)

by 33-32-00great on Apr 16, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree completely

Bobcats do not scare me one bit. I don’t need advanced statistical comparisons of this unit against that unit to know that the Magic are an excellent team, arguably the best in basketball, whereas the Bobs are a pretty good team, playing in their first ever postseason. No brainer. Magic in 4. 5 if the magic manage to goof up and give one away.

by Brad1 on Apr 16, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

6 games tops in this series, is my prediction, and that's only if Jackson goes on a couple of his unpredictable scoring binges.

Take of this and eat it, for this is my body, and faux cannibalism is all the rage these days.

Lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmG4X9PGOXs

by Diosnomeama on Apr 16, 2010 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Don't forget Jackson was on that Warriors team that upset Dallas...you think it could happen again?....NAAA...

by 33-32-00great on Apr 16, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

New to the post but a fan of this site for over two years..o yea, Magic in 5

I think we lose a close one in Charlotte.

by LastActionZero on Apr 16, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions

Man I hope everyone else is right

I can’t predict how many games because you can’t predict lucky bounces. I do think the Bobcats are a much tougher task than everyone else appears to. The Bobcats main weakness is inside, but they have great perimeter defense, which is what we struggle the most against. If they play us straight up and let Howard go off, it will be a good fight. Overall the Magic should prevail, but you never know when a team can get hot and burn you.

by Eric9321 on Apr 16, 2010 2:08 PM EDT reply actions