Orlando Magic Are Peaking at the Right Time, For Whatever That's Worth
by Evan Dunlap on Apr 1, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintIn professional sports, the phrase "peaking at the right time" refers to a team that's performing its best just before the postseason begins. While I'm not sure that "peaking at the right time" necessarily matters in the long run--last year's Orlando Magic team, for instance, fell apart in the last few weeks of the regular season due to injuries, and wound up winning its conference--I thought it pertinent to examine that term as it relates to this year's Magic team.
Based on their overall record and their 12-2 showing in March, to say the Magic are playing at their best is to state the obvious. But let's go ahead and take a quick graphical look at how their season has progressed.
Yup, the defense has improved, little by little, each month this season. And the offense had never been better than it was last month, which is remarkable because in January it was pretty hideous, posting a pedestrian offensive rating of 109.4. But since then, both Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter have played more to their ability--and Carter, who shot 28.4% in January, could hardly have gotten worse--and Dwight Howard has asserted himself on offense. Matt Barnes seems to have found his three-point stroke as well, connecting on 46.2% of his treys since the calendar turned to February. As a result of those gradual improvements, Orlando cruised through March, with an average margin of +13.1 points per game and an efficiency differential of +14.8.
So yes, the Magic are indeed peaking, even if the timing isn't necessarily important. What's important here is the considerable height of that peak. It's easy to see why basketball-reference and ESPN's John Hollinger give the Magic a better than one-in-five shot to win the title this season.
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A professional track athlete told me not believe in "peaking"..
He told me this right before he went to to the ’08 Olympics. He said that his coach told him that the concept of the pendulum is a better form of analysis. He states that the pendulum cant swing in your direction all the time but believe that when the time is right and you do everything you are supposed to do (i.e. practice, practice, …more practice) it will swing in your direction…
In other words, the pendulum is now on our side!!! YES! After all these years of mediocrity, you can see the trend of the pendulum swinging our way and it still on the up swing!!!!
(P.S. he won the Bronze in the 110 hurdles and he wasn’t even supposed to make it to the Olympics…)
"He is fast, but what I like about him is he looks like one of those track guys that actually knows how to run the ball and has good vision and patience. He is not just running at top speed. He knows when to use his speed, and he has some power and toughness, too.'' Barry Sanders about CJ2K
Dwight Howard >The Justice League of America
Only the bronze, huh?
Nah, I’m just kidding. That’s impressive.
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
yeah....lol...
especially since he wasn’t even supposed to make the team..seriously…
"He is fast, but what I like about him is he looks like one of those track guys that actually knows how to run the ball and has good vision and patience. He is not just running at top speed. He knows when to use his speed, and he has some power and toughness, too.'' Barry Sanders about CJ2K
Dwight Howard >The Justice League of America
by Bonafidebrother on Apr 1, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot of this improvement is Nelson
He is finally playing great after slow recoveries from his injuries.
Visualized Power Rankings
Give this chart a try: http://www.nbastuffer.com/2009-20010_NBA_Regular_Season_Power_Rankings_Chart.html
Interesting
Didn’t realize the Bobcats were that efficient on D. So what would happen if Larry Brown coached Phoenix? Hmm
by BlueSkyOneCloud on Apr 1, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I know this is stupid, but I obsess over Hollinger's rankings
I go to those rankings every day just to see what the Magic’s current score is and relate it to the Cavs’ & Lakers’ respective. I actually don’t get much out of them, but it makes me feel good.
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
Hmm... Am I looking at something different?
I checked out Hoopdata.com just to see what the league average is for OffEff and DefEff (104.5 for both). And I saw that the Magic lead the league in DefEff at 99.7. But your graph shows that it is around 104. Am I looking at the wrong thing here?
http://hoopdata.com/teamdefstats.aspx
NBA's Present: Dwight, Lebron, D-Wade...
Future: KD, D-Rose, Tyreke...
Past: Shaq, The Boston Celtics, Greg Oden...
I'm assuming that efficiency is different than rating.
When the big fella was whistled for his fourth personal foul midway through the third quarter, Stan Van Gundy left Clark Kent alone. And in a phone booth measuring 94 feet across, Dwight Howard used that vote of confidence to transform into his alter ego. - Chris Sheridan
by thermodynamic on Apr 1, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
No, the terms are interchangable.
Offensive efficiency = offensive rating = points per 100 possessions.
The chart shows the performance on a month-by-month basis; it’s not cumulative. Additionally, there are a few different formulas for calculating possessions (different coefficients and all that) which makes them inconsistent from site to site, resource to resource.
Legit
This team is legit and will be the deepest team in the playoffs.
FEED THE BEAST and everything else falls in to place.
FEED THE BEAST!!!
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I believe "peaking" is more important in football than basketball.
In football if you “peak” going into the playoffs you usually can ride a win streak that takes you to a Super Bowl. In basketball, you have to grind out several series against tough opponents who are waiting for you to make one little mistake.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
That's true. Four most likely completely different mistakes.
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
I just ran ESPN's playoff simulator 10 times...
The Magic didn’t win the championship any of the times.
We’re doomed!
I just ran different simulations:
First set of simulations:
Current Standings: Eliminated in Round 2 by Heat (who upset the Hawks in Round 1) (Cavs won title)
Hollinger Power Rankings: Eliminated in Round 2 by Hawks (Jazz won title)
Accuscore: Won the title over Jazz after Cavs were upset in round 2 by the Celtics
Second set of simulations:
Current Standings: Won title over Suns after beating Cavs in ECF, Suns upsetting the Lakers in the 2nd round and beating the Thunder in the WCF
Hollinger Power Rankings: Lost in ECF to Cavs (Cavs won title over Lakers)
Accuscore: Eliminated in Round 2 to Hawks (Cavs won title over Mavs who upset Lakers in WCF)
Third set of simulations:
Current Standings: Upset in Round 1 by Bobcats (Mavs won title over Celtics, Lakers upset in Round 1 to Spurs, Cavs upset by Celtics in Round 2, Celtics upset Hawks in ECF)
Hollinger Power Rankings: Upset in Round 1 by Bobcats (Mavs won title over Hawks, Lakers upset in Round 1 to Spurs, Cavs upset by Celtics in Round 2, Hawks won over Celtics in ECF)
Accuscore: Lost in Round 2 to Hawks (Cavs won title over Suns)
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
Correction
Won title twice
Lost in ECF once
Lost in Round 2 four times
Lost in Round 1 twice
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
Honestly, I only three possibilities this postseason and only one I'll be satisfied with:
Lose in ECF
Lose in NBA Finals
Win NBA Finals
It was odd that in none of the simulations do the Magic make it to the Finals and lose.
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
I had the Magic go to the Finals once and lose to the Dallas Mavericks.
DAMN YOU CARON BUTLER!
The intensity has to go up, up! Not down...UP! -Stan Van Gundy
I played twice using current standings and the Magic went to the Finals both times, winning the title once
The Magic lost in the Finals to Denver and beat the Mavs.
"It can be done, you can just crush somebody"
I enjoy the math, but I believe that it's not the complete answer
The game of basketball can’t be divided up into ones and zeros. I’m an analyst at my job, and I can give you answers all day that are based on maountains of data and years of observation, but I’m still wrong on a regular basis. There’s a reason Hollinger runs this thing 5,000 times. It’s because there are 5,000 different possibilities.
When it comes down to it, I’m going to go with what I know. The Orlando Magic, as an organization, when they play to the best of their abilities, are usually better than their opponents. With the Laker’s having problems, I’m seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. I believe that the Magic have a strong chance of making the ECF, a better than 50% chance of winning the ECF, and a good chance (not going to put a number on it) of walking away with the title if they do.
I can talk numbers to my boss all day, but there’s a reason that I attach myself to his hip. That’s because every time something new takes place, the analysis changes. The odds change throughout the game. The Magic are still 8 games and 4 playoff series away from a title, and it’s just too early to trust the numbers.
Your mileage may vary…
My 3 yr old's Teacher: Is he yelling white power?
My Wife: No, he's yelling Dwight Howard.
by farfromfl on Apr 1, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Come to think of it
What these models lack is an appreciation of the current state of each of the teams involved. These models take into account the entire year of play. If I’m going to make a trade in fantasy bball, I don’t look past the last month’s averages unless it’s a special case situation. The Magic, Jazz, Bucks (I think), and Heat (I think) have all played much better ball in the latter half of the season, while teams like Toronto, LA, and Denver are slumping. That’s certainly going to skew the numbers.
My 3 yr old's Teacher: Is he yelling white power?
My Wife: No, he's yelling Dwight Howard.
rec
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Apr 2, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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