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Off-Day Open Thread: Statistical Analysis and What It Means to You

It's fitting that the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference is today because I know that a number of you in the community have expressed a genuine interest to know more about statistical analysis. Which is great because the more educated you can be as a fan, the better.

We at Orlando Pinstriped Post pride ourselves in referring to advanced statistics to try to find out what Brandon Bass' return to the rotation means to the Orlando Magic, why Dwight Howard deserves to be in the discussion for the Most Valuable Player Award, and more. If you browse the archives, you'll find a plethora of examples where Ben and I use data in whatever subject we're covering in our posts. But we also know that sometimes you, the reader, don't know what adjusted plus/minus is or whatever else. 

In the next few days, I'll create a glossary with a compilation of links that will provide you an explanation of the metrics you want to know more about. Not sure what True Shooting Percentage is? Click here and bookmark the link, for example. There will be more links like that which will, most likely, answer the questions you have.

So, what do you want to know? 

I'll do my best to make sure I have a link to a resource ready for you when the time comes. 

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The main metrics that are discussed that I would like to learn more about, but mabye (if possible) in a bit more of lamen's terms:

PER
eFG%
TS%
Adjusted Plus/Minus
WARP

And any others that you use on a consistent basis.

NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!

by malars on Mar 6, 2010 2:50 PM EST reply actions  

win shares, please.

also: offensive & defensive rating
and WARP

by kerem on Mar 6, 2010 3:16 PM EST reply actions  

I am a Star Trek fan

WARP Factor 4 Scotty!

Maybe you know Judo, maybe I know Smith and Wesson.

by NC Magic Fan on Mar 6, 2010 4:07 PM EST reply actions  

Wats up

I’m new here, and I am a major fan of this Orlando Magic team, I’ve been a fan since 1992. I do think D12 should be MVP, he had amazing games.

Orlando Magic NBA Champions 2010

by d-baller23 on Mar 6, 2010 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

Cool, welcome to OPP.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 6, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks E.

I’m new but I’ve been on this site a couple of times, I just decided to sign up today. I like the post you and Ben Q. Rock be doing.

Orlando Magic NBA Champions 2010

by d-baller23 on Mar 6, 2010 5:35 PM EST reply actions  

That's nice of you to say, thanks.

Look forward to your contributions to the site.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 6, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I like the statistical analysis as it is.

I don’t think there is any front page posters anywhere on SBN that has MORE focus on statistical analysis than what you two (Ben & Eddy) bring. It’s always interesting to see what can be said, but as to what’s missing? No clue.

As far as what I specifically like, I read one comment by Eddy about the argument of Bass vs Anderson and it made sense. A lot of sense. (It also was a solid criticism on Otis Smith.)

Either way I personally like a lot of sites that use statistical references. I like Hoop Data, B-Reference, 82games, Basketball Value, I don’t look at the Knickerblogger stats page (but that’s useful too), and I’m sure the APBR forum has some interesting conversation there too. Either way, lots of good stuff out there. But, that’s the stuff I generally use. The best stuff I’ve seen is generated by those like Tom Ziller, Matt Moore, Bethelham Shoals and that’s not so unusual either.

There is, IMO, only so many ways to slice stats. But there are plenty of places out there to find the non-traditional stats and I tend to find use in all of them.

No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16

by pookeyguru on Mar 6, 2010 5:38 PM EST reply actions  

And as a sidenote

Since I write my own Kings blog, I also include that stuff on my own sidebar in case my readers ever care. (I don’t think they do, but 1 or 2 may. That’s the only reason I bother having a sidebar.)

No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16

by pookeyguru on Mar 6, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe links or references to the best places to find the data online for each particular stat?

"This is two good games in a row for Carter -- not a full blown trend yet, but if it becomes one the Magic just got a lot more scary." ~Kurt Helin

by magicfaninTN on Mar 6, 2010 6:06 PM EST reply actions  

I thought they already did that. Maybe that's just me though.

No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16

by pookeyguru on Mar 6, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait nevermind. Sorry I read that wrong TN.

No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16

by pookeyguru on Mar 6, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

no problem ru

"This is two good games in a row for Carter -- not a full blown trend yet, but if it becomes one the Magic just got a lot more scary." ~Kurt Helin

by magicfaninTN on Mar 6, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Defensive/Offensive Ratings (DRtg/ORtg) and Win Shares

I saw that you have to read a book for those. That’s pretty serious lol.

by bandrewg08 on Mar 6, 2010 8:19 PM EST reply actions  

Basketball on Paper is probably what people are referring to.

I haven’t read the whole book (I know Ben has) but I’m a quick learner when it comes to the numbers so I self-taught myself almost everything I know when it comes to advanced statistics. That being said, I don’t claim to know all. The best I can do is explain what this or that means but not the formulas and all that.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 6, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks, I actually just found the explanation on the basketball-reference.com glossary

I forgot which site just referred me to a book. Got me thinking, “What kind of statistic needs its own book to explain itself?” These advanced stats are intimidating, but I’m glad you guys use it and I’m interested in learning more. Keep it coming.

by bandrewg08 on Mar 8, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions  

It's a great book, I definitely recommend reading it.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 8, 2010 3:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Bass vs Ryan Anderson

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=BbyPx

Bass has tied RA in PER, and he is 4 pts higher in ORTG
Better offensive rebounder

Both players are proving to be very valuable.. Nothing like having two above avg big men as back-ups..

FEED THE BEAST!!!
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Mar 6, 2010 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

I was looking at the comparison stats the other day and had a similar thought

Nice to have this kind of riches on the bench or as trade assets.

Personally, I still kind of prefer Ryan and maybe sitting on the pine will force him to clean up some parts of his game that needed a little attention.

"This is two good games in a row for Carter -- not a full blown trend yet, but if it becomes one the Magic just got a lot more scary." ~Kurt Helin

by magicfaninTN on Mar 6, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

A statistical explaination of the Magic Offense would help many

There seem to be many fans that don’t understand that the value of the 1-4 offense is to open up one of the two most efficient shot in basketball, the close in/dunk or the 3-point shot. Complaints about too many 3-point shots are often misplaced because of a lack of understanding of why they are the 2nd most efficient shot in the game.

Maybe you know Judo, maybe I know Smith and Wesson.

by NC Magic Fan on Mar 7, 2010 10:16 AM EST reply actions  

This is an interesting suggestion.

Maybe pictures could work, like I’ve done in the past with frame-by-frame posts.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 7, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Go for it

While the Magic defense is outstanding, the offensive sets are what makes match ups hard for other teams. Rashard benefitted from some nice sets yesterday.

Maybe you know Judo, maybe I know Smith and Wesson.

by NC Magic Fan on Mar 8, 2010 7:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Doing it on a points-per-possession basis might be helpful too

One thing I’ve found is that people tend to discount three-pointers and free throws – threes because they’re just shots, and free throws because they’re not shots. It’s hard for someone to grasp intuitively that a 33% three point shot is as good as a 50% two point shot in most circumstances, but easier to grasp that someone averages 1 point per shot from each area. It’s similar with free throw shooting.

Quick example:
Vince Carter overall is shooting .443 from two, .354 from three, and .836 from the line. On a P3 basis, the average two point shot is worth 0.886 points (and this is both layups and jumpers), the average three is worth 1.062, and going to the line for two FTs is worth 1.672(!). This is why Vince needs to either drive or shoot the three – a long range shot is worth about 0.2 points more than a two, and getting to the line doubles his production.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Mar 8, 2010 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Four Factors and why they are so important

When the big fella was whistled for his fourth personal foul midway through the third quarter, Stan Van Gundy left Clark Kent alone. And in a phone booth measuring 94 feet across, Dwight Howard used that vote of confidence to transform into his alter ego. - Chris Sheridan

by thermodynamic on Mar 7, 2010 7:52 PM EST reply actions  

Also, which statistics are more highly regarded to the stat-heads?

And which ones are not really held in high esteem? Besides NBA Efficiency Rating: PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK – FG missed – FT missed – TOS. That one is obviously kinda random. From Hoopdata btw.

by bandrewg08 on Mar 8, 2010 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

Anyone know of a template for in-game tracking on your own?

I.e. a paper doc or a spreadsheet template to more easily play “score-keeper at home”? It probably wouldn’t be too hard to develop, but why reinvent the wheel if it already exists.

"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy

by magicfaninTN on Mar 8, 2010 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

I don't know of any, unfortunately.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 8, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

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