Off-Day Open Thread: What's J.J. Redick Worth?
by Evan Dunlap on Mar 29, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
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After his superb 23-point, 7-rebound, 8-assist effort against the Denver Nuggets yesterday, Orlando Magic guard J.J. Redick's become a hot topic today, obviously. But the talk isn't just about the numbers he posted. Brian Schmitz has broached the inevitable topic of Redick's pending restricted free agency. Some excerpts:
After bailing out the Vince Carter-less Magic on Sunday, J.J. Redick ended a sentence by saying "if I’m back" with the team next season.
[...]
You wouldn’t think another team would break the bank for Redick. Even though he has worked himself into the role of a solid backup shooting guard, NBA economics are suddenly in play for the non-superstars.
But all it takes is one team to make an offer.
To have the right to match an offer, Orlando must first extend Redick a Qualifying Offer, which ShamSports' database indicates will be $3.887 million. That figure is merely academic and does not reflect what Orlando would have to pay him, although coincidentally an annual salary of roughly $4 million seems fair for a reserve shooting guard entering his athletic prime, at 26 years old. The Magic have nearly $79 million in salary commitments next season, which will balloon if Matt Barnes exercises his player option of $1.6 million and if Orlando re-signs Redick. And, accounting for the luxury tax bill, the Magic will be on the hook for a lot of money, with or without those two.
So I pose this question to you for today's discussion: should the Magic keep Redick? And what's a fair value for him? On the first point, I've written before about what Redick brings to this team, and yesterday's performance is an extreme example of his preparedness, reliability, and skill. To help with that second part, here's a list of players from Redick's draft class who've already signed extensions, and their corresponding contract values. Salary data from the incomparable, indispensable ShamSports.
| Player | Team | Years | Total Value (in millions) | Avg. Annual Value (in millions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Roy | POR | 5 | Maximum | ? |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | POR | 5 | $65.000 | $13.000 |
| Rajon Rondo | BOS | 5 | $55.000 | $11.000 |
| Andrea Bargnani | TOR | 5 | $50.000 | $10.000 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | OKC | 4 | $13.800 | $3.450 |
| Renaldo Balkman | DEN | 3 | $5.025 | $1.675 |
It's a bit hard to place Redick's worth based on that chart because of the huge disparity between the highest- and lowest-paid examples. Roy is a franchise-level player; Balkman signed his extension because he wasn't sure if his play this season would boost his value, so he took what he could get, so to speak. Schmitz, for his part, thinks Orlando and Redick will work everything out, and says "If no other team forces the Magic’s hand, they likely try to lock up Redick for, oh, let’s say four years, $12-15 million."
I'd like to table a more in-depth discussion of Redick's free agency until the end of the season, and I'll have much more on it then. But, briefly, I'd say he should be a key part of this team's future success, and Orlando should pay him accordingly.
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I think a 4 yr $12-15 million deal is good.
I would really like to see him stay in Orlando because, like Ben said, he should be a key part of the teams future success. I honestly think he and Ryan Anderson together are great. I’m worried that another team might offer him a lot of money and a starting position. A lot of teams have made cap space for the impending free agency and there is a limited amount of free agents. If a team doesn’t get a big name, but still has a ton of money, they may overpay someone like JJ just to get someone. Plus, I think there was a ton of interest in him before the trade deadline right? That interest doesn’t just wane all of a sudden does it?
Good numbers...
This offseason is going to be crazy, I think it’s impossible to gauge anyone’s interest in a backup wing right now.
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully
He will stay, but if he has earned himself a big payday from another (Toronto like) team, then I will be happy for him as well. If the salaries are close, hopefully he will stay put as the Magic drafted despite all the doubters. Redick is a great backup/occasional starter, and could even work himself into a sixth man of the year candidate with an aging Carter needing more time to rest during the season next year.
Toronto might not be an option
Here is an interesting article about Turk and his status in Toronto. They might not be interested in another Magic player after their experience with Turk.
Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.
Toronto might not be an option
Hehe here is the link: http://www.torontosun.com/sports/basketball/2010/03/28/13389321.html
Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.
that is a prime example of what not doing your homework before throwing crazy $ numbers at a player gives you. as a magic and turk fan, none of this surprises me. toronto or even portland should of realized that turk fit in the magic’s system but that he might not of had the same results outside of that system. furthermore, the guy likes to have a good time and may need a fire lit under his ass sometimes…that i am sure league insiders could of confirmed for them as i know orlando residents could attested to it. i mean look at my profile picture, it is a picture of the guy eating pizza minutes before the tip of an eastern conference final game…if that doesn’t sum him up for you, i don’t know what does. you got what you paid for toronto.
"Where do you go from here, Dion?" "I go to Toronto."
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.
To be fair
Pizza doesn’t mean much – most NBA players eat absolute crap most of the time.
by eltharion_doa on Mar 29, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
The Pizza pic comment
Seriously LOL’d for a few mins…good call dude lol
Vince Carter - Half Man, Half Retired
Matt Barnes - Half Man, Half Tattoo
by magic12ball on Mar 29, 2010 3:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think we've seen Redick's upper limit yet
Guy came into the Association mostly as an offensive threat, but over the last few years has really worked on completing his game. He defends well, shoots from anywhere including driving the lane, and as we’ve seen has clearly made the commitment to being in shape – JJ doesn’t have the raw athleticism advantages of (say) a Dwight Howard or a Vince Carter, but his work ethic has allowed him to close that gap. Two years from now JJ may be worth MORE than VC, as JJ continues to work to improve and as Father Time continues to take his toll on Vince.
Do I think JJ will be a franchise player? No. I don’t. But I don’t think that 6th man is his ceiling, either. He’s smart, mature, and his ego clearly doesn’t get in the way of improving his game. He might not be worth much to (say) L.A.L., but I think he is an asset in the Magic’s system. I really hope he stays. If not, trade him to the Nets for C. Lee. Please.
University of Tennessee : Where Schadenfreude Happens
I'll take Redick over Lee any day (if I'm Orlando.)
His ceiling is probably the 4th best starter on a playoff team.
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
There's too much free cap space around, I think
Someone who loses out on the big names, after seeing Redick in the playoffs, will overbid for him, or someone close to a championship will try to get over the top with a mid-level type deal.
I suspect he’ll be looking at more like $4-5m per annum, over 4 or 5 seasons.
So say $16-25m. His PER is right around the average SG in the league, and the average salary is around that mark, so arguably he’s even worth it. He slots in around Delonte West and JR Smith, who are earning $4.3m and $6.7m respectively – JR’s overpaid, but even so, I think Redick can point to guys like that and make a case for $4.5m a season, average.
Redick's PER is 23rd among SG's, which makes him a borderline starter.
Delonte West shuts down guards that aren’t too much bigger than him, while JR Smith is flat out the most explosive player in the Western Conference. I think Redick’s value to the Magic is probably $5 million a season. Can they afford to keep him at that price? Probably not. Will he settle for less? Hopefully he’ll have to.
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I doubt Matt Barnes is coming back... especially if the Magic win it all.
He’ll definitely opt out. He’s showed his value to a team far out-paces $1.6 million. He’s the James Posey of 2010. Defensive stopper/tough guy that can hit a three that plays for the best team. Look at the contract Posey got! I doubt Orlando will put up an offer that’s better than what he could get elsewhere.
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Yep
I’d be surprised if he stayed around too.
I kinda think that means Bass and/or Gortat might be on his/their way for a starting SF next season, with of course a backup C required as well, depending on if both go or not.
by eltharion_doa on Mar 29, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Andrei Kirilenko?
He’s having a renaissance season…. is an expiring contract….
Bass, Pietrus and the $6.8 million trade exception for Kirilenko?
Utah would then not have to re-sign Boozer, move Millsap into the starting lineup and bring Bass off the bench. Pietrus would help replace Kirilenko.
There really aren’t that many SF’s better than him. He’s 7th in PER among small forwards at 18.4.
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we'd have to pay too much
And if we lost Barnes (opt out), Bass, Pietrus (trade) and Redick (not matching a big contract) and then gave AK a big contract (as he would rightly be demanding after the season he’s had), we’d be crippling our depth.
by eltharion_doa on Mar 29, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Well in this scenario we re-sign Redick.
Then find a backup three for $2 million/year.
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Try again
Both teams are way over the cap plus you cannot include the trade exception to make this deal work since a trade exception can only be used to be filled in by a contract. Try ESPN Trade Machine.
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
Ahhhh that's right I forgot about that.
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
BUT Barnes will not be the same player without Howard.
Barnes is benefitting, as most our players are, from having a dominant big man defender inside which helps the perimeter defenders look a heck of alot better than they really are. Magic players individually are not all that defensively but add Dwight and we are one of best defensive “teams” in the NBA.
by O-Town MagiCane on Mar 29, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
But some (stat deficient) GM will probably ignore that.
And Barnes will likely be looking at a Turk-like playoff bump in value (meaning FAs coming off playoff success often get overpaid in the summer…I don’t not mean that Barnes will get a contract at the same level that Turk pulled down). But I hope Barnes takes his player option in ORL and we keep JJ.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Mar 29, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Brando Bass type money seems about right
I don’t think 4 years at less than $16 million will get it done. JJ has become a solid, durable backup SG who can generate offense for himself and his teammates.
"Loose ball foul on whatever the hell his name is." - Joey Crawford calling a foul on Stojko Vrankovic
The only way to stop LeBron is Smith and Wesson, but even that's a double team.
by NC Magic Fan on Mar 29, 2010 11:02 AM EDT reply actions
Some idiot team a la Memphis Grizzlies will overpay for JJ.
They make him some offer which will just make it too hard, and quite honestly not worth it, for Otis to match.
"Where do you go from here, Dion?" "I go to Toronto."
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.
Memphis is too stingy for that. They won't even bring back Rudy Gay
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by ben_gleicher on Mar 29, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Memphis will always be on my shit list as wild card know-nothings after they traded Pau Gasol for his brother and a bag of basketballs (one of which got into a well publicized disagreement with one Gilbert Arenas).
"Where do you go from here, Dion?" "I go to Toronto."
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.
They're a good candidate.
"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Mar 29, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I try to never think Minnesota
I have been therre in January, it is unthinkable!
"Loose ball foul on whatever the hell his name is." - Joey Crawford calling a foul on Stojko Vrankovic
The only way to stop LeBron is Smith and Wesson, but even that's a double team.
by NC Magic Fan on Mar 29, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Golden State
Nelly loves him some guards
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Nelly is about to get fired.
If he doesn’t get fired, I wouldn’t be surprised if he quit after he breaks Lenny Wilkin’s record.
Guys, guys... you forget one thing
Contrary to public thought; money is NOT everything!
Sure; some half-brain team might offer JJ an insane amount of money and it will be tempting, but…
I’m SURE that the Magic, contrary to the Turk affair, WILL make a substancial, fair… no; More than fair offer to JJ when the time comes. One that truly VALUES his contribution toward the Team effort.
When this happens, it will be irrelevant what ANY team offers…
One, because JJ is NOT like Turk, either in age, work ethic or personality. Turk is declining player, with a child and family to support. The Toronto contract was, to him his last chance to cash-in on his oh-so-brief moment in the Sun. A player who could be as brilliant or as clumsy at any given time. You never knew which one would show up… He flourished under Stan’s system (many others have, too!). But he CHOSE to give it all away for two things: A great city, with high quality of life; and MONEY.
But things HAVE gone predictably south, as stated Sunday March 28 by FRANK ZICARELLI of the Toronto Sun:
“He’s become (Turk) a high maintenance player who shoots too many low-percentage shots, a player you can’t depend on and one who needs to be taught a lesson.
Players know Turkoglu hasn’t stepped up.
When he has played well, it’s been in spurts."
Turk now faces two things: One, a rising resentment/booying from the Toronto community, and two, he will never see a Championship ring… EVER! But… he’ll have lots of… money.
Now, JJ is from Duke, a sharp, observant kid who seizes the lessons in and out of the basketball court. He is NOT Turk; he will NOT trade bottles for oranges. He KNOWS where he fits best; where he can GROW, where he belongs…
When the time comes, the Magic will treat JJ right and he will remain a Magic…
As long as they match the offers
"Loose ball foul on whatever the hell his name is." - Joey Crawford calling a foul on Stojko Vrankovic
The only way to stop LeBron is Smith and Wesson, but even that's a double team.
by NC Magic Fan on Mar 29, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I admire your optimism
But I can’t help but think you’re being a little naive. If someone offers JJ more than the mid-level, he’d be absolutely insane to knock it back to come play for $2m or $3m less in Orlando. These guys are professionals – they know they have a short time in the game and they want to make money while they’re around.
JJ’s definitely had his ups and downs in Orlando, he’s asked for trades, he’s not committed to staying here as evidenced by his comments. He’s a true professional – he’ll give 100% as long as he’s here – but if someone puts a substantially better offer than the Magic can make on the table, he’s gone.
by eltharion_doa on Mar 30, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
The Nuggets straight up got Redick'd
"It can be done, you can just crush somebody"
JJ probably would like to stay in Orlando
but there are a lot of teams with plenty of cap space… LAC, Knicks, Chicago, Nets, Wizards – they’re not all gonna get a piece of a superstar. So they will go for overpaid role players, which could suck JJ out of the Magic Kingdom
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